Wheat Quality Council Didn't Find Total Disaster in Kansas
Overall, the Kansas wheat crop showed definite signs of drought stress, with plants shorter in stature and smaller head development.
Compiled by staff
Published: May 5, 2006
The final estimate for the 2006 hard red winter wheat tour sponsored by the Wheat Quality Council pegged Kansas' crop at a yield of 37.3 bushels per acre, 8.9 bushels lower than 2005 estimate of 46.2 bushels per acre.
Participants in the three-day tour made individual estimates on the total size of the crop, which ranged from 238 million bushels to 395 million bushels. The weighted average was 319.2 million bushels. Last year's final estimate for the tour was 419.76 million bushels. Last year's tour over-estimated the crop by 10.5%.
Trade reaction to the tour thus far has been slightly negative, following comments of "better than expected" made by tour participants. Market analyst Arlan Suderman says, "The number is supportive when put in the context of historically small Oklahoma and Texas crops and tight world stocks." But for some reason these industry representatives expected to find a total disaster in Kansas and didn't, and therefore they made comments about "better than expected," he adds.
Overall, the Kansas wheat crop showed definite signs of drought stress, with plants shorter in stature and smaller head development. This year's crop is rapidly maturing and the wheat should be headed out throughout most of the state of Kansas going into next week, according to tour participants. Wheat throughout the state showed a range of development, between the boot and flowering stages, with a larger percentage of the wheat in the heading stage for this time of year. Areas of southwest and central Kansas showed lower yields because of the dry weather and freeze damage. While rain in some areas of the state could still improve kernel development in wheat plants, there are fields where moisture could be too late at this point to save the crop.
Crop scouts on the tour spent Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday surveying Kansas, usually the top U.S. wheat producing state, trying to assess the production potential of hard red winter wheat for this year. It was observed by crop participants that the wheat seen on the third day showed more adequate moisture than the fields observed on the earlier part of the tour. However, participants continued to observe the smaller head sizes and lacking of full potential for plant development because of drought prior to the tour. The average yield for the third day was 38.8 bushels per acre, 4 bushels lower than the 2005 estimate of 42.8 bushels per acre on the third day.
Emphasis was placed on the fact that this is what the current crop looks like at this given point in time. The wheat plant development is running ahead of time, with the Kansas wheat harvest estimated in the range of 30 to 40 days.
Permalink: Click here
Tagged: wheat, Drought, winter wheat, hard red winter wheat, arlan suderman
|