Some of the biggest rallies in the wheat market historically have come when the hard red winter wheat crop suffered freeze damage during the early spring. But last week's hard freeze from Kansas into Oklahoma left futures flat-footed.
While damage from the freeze is likely, its impact likely won't show up for weeks. The market will watch Monday afternoon's crop ratings for signs, but may have to wait until USDA releases its first forecast of winter wheat production in May, if then.
The season's first nationwide crop ratings showed little change from forecasts made using condition reports from key states put out over the winter. Even a little help from USDA's monthly supply and demand report on Thursday failed to stir much enthusiasm, with ending the week with bearish reversals lower on the weekly charts from all three exchanges.
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