The wheat market enjoyed many explosive moves the past few years. Right now most producers likely would settle for any old type of rally.
Wheat was able to consolidate last week in the face of pressure from corn and soybeans. Speculative hedge funds continued to sell early in the week, but the market's ability to hold appears to be stimulating at least a short covering rally. That may be about the best we can hope for at this point.
To be sure, U.S. exports have potential. Prices are competitive, albeit it very cheap, and production looks off in enough places to be encouraging. The developing El Nino is probably the biggest wild card, though so far Australia is in decent shape. Argentine acreage will be way down due to lingering effects of drought, but good rains this week could help at least stabilize the situation there.
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