Talk of China in the market usually focuses on soybeans. But the Chicago wheat market tried to play the China card on Friday, and almost pulled it off. Futures didn't quite complete a bullish reversal, but they did manage to wipe out most of the day's losses.
It brought a bit of hope to what otherwise was another down week that saw follow-through selling from the bearish reversal of the previous week. The spark came from talk China bought 1.1 million bushels of U.S. soft red winter wheat.
An important part of China's winter wheat belt has been dry, though the area did recent some moisture recently and many fields are capable of irrigation. In any case, right now it seems unlikely China will turn to imports in a big way unless the situation really deteriorates. A few years back Chinese imports surged during the 2004 marketing year — remember when those delegations came shopping? But China is believed to be sitting on huge piles of reserves, enough to get through most situations.
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