A funny thing happened to the wheat market on Friday: It actually turned out to be the market leader by the close. That hasn't happened a lot this winter, but it's lays out at least a little hope the complex can avoid falling apart in the near-term.
True, the forces behind the rally appeared to be mostly short-covering, and perhaps some mischief caused by expiration of February serial options. A good week of export sales helped. But every step forward in this market seems to be accompanied by at least one step back, making it hard to get real excited.
That's why the seasonal trend for wheat is choppy this time of year. Exports are the only game in town, and they can't really drive prices up much most years. The U.S. did get some good news last week: its soft red winter wheat is competitive on world markets, with Egypt buying from us again. At the same time of big cancellation of hard wheat to Nigeria, and price sensitivity by end users could make significant rallies difficult until spring weather becomes an issue.
To read Bryce Knorr's complete weekly wheat review, click HERE.
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