Story lines in the soybean market continue to swirl around like a tortured soap opera script. But the risks for growers are dead serious.
Weather in South America remains the overall driving force for traders. Better than expected rains in Argentina last week pressured the market to new lows for 2009 until a drier forecast emerged. The round of showers bought the crop some time, but more hot, dry weather could take away that advantage.
Most local estimates put the size of the crop at 40 to 42.5 million tons, down 20% or so from original estimates. The severe drought only adds to pressure on farmers there, who resumed protests this weekend. A year ago these measures escalated into a months-long strike that crippled exports and lead to a sales boom in the U.S.
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