USDA Releases September Crop Report on Friday
Estimate of corn and soybean production will be updated as well as other information.
Jason Vance
Published: Sep 10, 2010
On Friday USDA will release its September Crop Report. According to Farm Futures Senior Editor Bryce Knorr, the trade will be looking closely at the USDA's updated production estimate for corn and soybeans.
"There is a great debate going on in the community trying to figure out just how big this corn crop is," Knorr said. "It does look like yields are going to be lower, less production and tighter stocks due to stronger exports."
Farm Futures is estimating the yield at 163 bushels per acre for a crop of about 13.2 billion bushels, which is based in part on recent work done by Farm Futures.
"Taking a look at cooling degree days on a state-by-state basis and melding those with the state crop ratings, which haven't changed much in August," Knorr said "Once you factor in the warmer than normal summer, as to what that means historically it does take a couple of bushels per acre off USDA's last yield."
Knorr says a wildcard that USDA is most likely not going to talk about on Friday is acreage. Farm Futures' August producer survey found farmers actually planted more acres of corn than USDA found in July, which could somewhat take the bullishness off reduced yields.
According to Knorr most people think soybean yields are holding up fairly well. Farm Futures estimates a slight increase to 44.1 bushels per acre.
"We think ultimately USDA is going to have to lower carryout due to continued record exports for the 2010 crop," Knorr said. "USDA has been slow to recognize those exports in the past and that pattern probably will continue so we could get somewhat disappointing numbers for beans, which trade may just ignore."
Friday's new Supply and Demand report will have new forecasts for the Russian wheat crop and the possible ramifications of that crop on world markets. Knorr says that possible imports by Russia could turn the situation even more bullish. U.S. exports are expected to be increased, perhaps as much as 125 million bushels and world production is expected to be cut a little bit.
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Tagged: usda, farm, farm futures, wheat, soybeans
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