Soybean Sales And Shipments Reach Marketing Year High
Corn exports remain slow.
Bryce Knorr
Published: Oct 30, 2008
Chinese buyers stepped into the soybean market in a big way in the latest week, sending both sales and shipments to market year highs, increasing the potential for USDA to ultimately ratchet up its forecast of 2008 crop exports.
The agency, which has a track record of underestimating usage, lowered its forecast for the year on Tuesday, when it made an unprecedented mid-month revision to the size of the crop after finding mistakes in its computer system. However, today's weekly export sales report underscored the strong pace of exports after a shaky start.
Total weekly bean sales hit 53.6 million bushels, with shipments just under 50 million. China was the big taker, with net sales and shipments both at 30 million bushels. The Chinese government recently announced a plan to build up reserves depleted by its attempt to control food inflation heading into the summer Olympics.
Initial sales of soybeans this fall were slowed by harvest delays and ideas China might cancel purchases made at higher prices thanks to a huge domestic crop. But recent numbers suggest the world's largest importer of soy is ready to do deals at today's lower prices and shipping rates.
While soybean exports surged, corn business was again disappointing. Net new sales for the week totaled just 16.3 million bushels, just half the recent level and well below the sales pace needed to reach USDA's forecast for the marketing year. The government chopped 50 million bushels off its sales forecast on Tuesday, and if today's trend continues it could mean that is still 50 million bushels too high.
Competition from feed wheat continues to undercut corn, which also has been hurt this fall by the slow progress farmers are making harvesting the 2008 crop. Export shipments are also sluggish at less than 24 million bushels, although the pipeline could refill this week as weather improves.
Japan remains the biggest customer for U.S. corn, but even at 9 million bushels of new business its buying continues to lag normal levels. Japan has also been a slow buyer of wheat this fall, with new tenders suspended in September after a scandal with tainted imported rice.
Overall wheat business in the latest week was decent, with total sales of 18.2 million bushels beating estimates and the weekly rate forecast by USDA. Asian buyers again were relatively scarce, however.
Sales and shipments to Egypt also remain modest. The U.S. lost out on another tender this week to Russia, after seeing France win the tender last week.
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Weekly Export Sales (million bushels) |
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AS OF WEEK ENDING |
10/23/08 |
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Actual |
Est. |
Last Week |
USDA F'cast |
Export Ship-ments |
USDA F'cast |
% of USDA Commit. |
Ave. |
% of USDA Ship-ments |
Ave. |
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Wheat |
18.2 |
16.5 |
14.2 |
5.9 |
21.8 |
9.5 |
68% |
53% |
48% |
36% |
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Corn |
16.3 |
31.5 |
31.1 |
29.4 |
23.7 |
38.7 |
32% |
29% |
11% |
12% |
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Soybeans |
53.6 |
33.1 |
28.8 |
9.5 |
49.6 |
17.0 |
45% |
40% |
8% |
9% |
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Source: USDA, Reuters |
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Tagged: usda, wheat, soybeans, soybean, Harvest
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