Soil Moisture Improved Going Into Spring
Crop prospects have recently improved, although there is still a chance for drought this year.
Compiled by staff
Published: Apr 4, 2006
Thanks to recent recharge in subsoil moisture supply, crop prospects have improved for the season. There is still a chance for a drought in the Corn Belt if past trends prove true.
"We are due for a major drought to occur in the Corn Belt," says Elwynn Taylor, Iowa State University climatologist. "It isn't uncommon to go 16 or 20 years between major droughts in the Corn Belt. Our last big drought was 1988. So we're due."
While it's not unusual to go this long without a major drought, bear in mind we've never gone over 23 years. We know a drought will be coming sometime. But will it be this year? Considering the way things ended up so dry last fall, you'd have reason to suspect a drought will occur in 2006. "However, we've had a significant correction in the subsoil moisture reserve supply since last fall," notes Taylor.
"The warm winter we just experienced wasn't particularly wet. But the snow and rain that we did receive did indeed filter into the soil - because the fields weren't frozen. If we would have had frozen soil, that subsoil moisture recharge wouldn't have happened."
Expect normal rain in spring
Soil moisture has improved greatly across the Corn Belt since last fall. Precipitation has changed from an almost totally dry pattern in the southern United States to one that looks almost normal as we enter spring 2006. "We're hopeful for Corn Belt crop yields in 2006," he says. "The weather pattern occurring in Texas, Oklahoma and Arkansas at the end of March is expected to be the pattern that will be migrating north as the days get longer."
Right now, Taylor is expecting a spring with about-normal precipitation. It's too early to tell about summer. If a La Nina develops, summer could be very harsh. If the weather stays neutral, the Corn Belt could expect trend line precipitation and trend line yields. Development of an El Nino, which is favorable for rainfall in the Corn Belt, is even a possibility.
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Tagged: Corn Belt, Drought, crop yields
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