Rural Mainstreet Index Expands for Third Straight Month
Farmland equipment sales slump to lowest level in four years.
Compiled by staff
Published: May 27, 2009
According to the May survey of bank CEO's in an 11-state region, the overall index for the Rural Mainstreet economy increased for a third straight month. The Rural Mainstreet Index, which ranges between 0 and 100, expanded to 36.2 from April's 21.7 and March's 18.7.
"The Rural Mainstreet economy appears to have bottomed out earlier this year with fewer negative indicators each month since February. While the RMI remains below growth neutral, May's number was the highest recorded level since September 2008," said Creighton University economist Ernie Goss, who created the monthly economic survey in 2005. "The RMI has remained below growth neutral 50.0 for 15 consecutive months. Weaker farm income, significant reductions for rural manufacturers and a weak U.S. economy continue to negatively affect the Rural Mainstreet economy."
Businesses that sell to the farm sector have been materially and negatively affected by a weaker outlook for farm income. Sales of U.S. farm products abroad have also been impacted because of the strong dollar and the global recession, which has lead to the farmland-price index moving below growth neutral for the seventh straight month.
"After peaking at 81.0 in January 2008, the index declined to a record low 33.1 in March of this year, but has rebounded slightly to May's 39.2, though it is down slightly from April's 41.2," Goss said. "The farm-equipment sales index slumped to 28.3, a record low and was down from April's 29.6 and March's record low 30.0. Cautious farmers have clearly cut their purchases of farm machinery."
The conditions for buying farm machinery is not as bad as it could be, according to bankers. Jim Brown CEO of Hardin County Savings Bank, Eldora, Iowa, said, "This is not record low territory for farm machinery sales. In the 1980s, there were no sales and no bottom to the market for a long period." For the first time since September 2007, the confidence index, which tracks expectations for the Rural Mainstreet economy six months out, rose above growth neutral 50.0. The May reading soared to 56.0 from April's 45.6, and Goss says bankers in the survey are clearly getting more optimistic in their economic outlook.
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Tagged: farm, farm machinery
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