Bullish dreams for the wheat market suffered another blow last week, when USDA all but put the last nail into the coffin of old crop prices with a bearish report. Rally hopes now are left only with weather concerns about hard red winter wheat to keep a further slide from developing.
The July K.C.-Chicago spread reflected this situation, moving to new highs just shy of 50 cents. End of the week rains in the southwest Plains were disappointing, missing much of Kansas, and the forecast is for mostly dry weather over the next two weeks, which should help support futures if outside markets hold.
K.C. July ended with a bearish reversal Friday, but maintained its breakout above the 2009 resistance line. Seasonal trends favor a modest rally into April, which could provide some final pricing opportunities before a slide into harvest.
Learn more in the Weekly Wheat Review.
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