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Purdue Report Refutes Indirect Land Use Numbers

A recently completed analysis from Purdue University concluded that the California Air Resources Board overestimated the indirect land use change impact of grain-based ethanol by a factor of two in developing its Low Carbon Fuels Standard one year ago. The report used the Global Trade Analysis Project model. That model concludes that land use change emissions potentially associated with corn ethanol expansion are likely less than half of the level estimated by the California Air Resources Board staff for the LCFS.

In a letter sent to ARB Chair Mary Nichols, Renewable Fuels Association President Bob Dinneen wrote, "We write to point out the new Purdue findings because we believe ARB has committed itself to consider and respond to critical developments like these. The research was conducted by the same department and many of the same researchers at Purdue that conducted extensive ILUC modeling under contract to ARB for the LCFS regulation."

Dinneen continued that they believe the Board must direct the staff to adopt the new Purdue results and use the new, improved GTAP model from this point forward until such time that even better tools are available.