No Back-to-School Sale In Grains
High prices appear to be keeping buyers mostly on the sidelines for now.
Bryce Knorr
Published: Aug 18, 2011
Sales of corn, soybeans and wheat reported this morning by USDA all fell below trade guesses, as high prices appear to be making buyers reluctant to commit.
Wheat sales fared the best in the latest week, coming in at 20.2 million bushels. Though that was below trade expectations, it did beat the rate forecast by USDA for the marketing year. Shipments also topped the forecast rate, though they're running a little weaker than normal. Japan remains the leading buyer of U.S. wheat, and the only one taking more than a single load.
World markets remain under pressure from cheap wheat flooding out of the Black Sea. Russia sold 6.6 million more bushels to Egypt today at that country's latest snap tender, with Romania getting another 2.2.million in new business.
Corn sales of 20.6 million bushels were split between old crop and new, with most buyers taking only single cargoes. August many years features a clearance sale atmosphere in the corn market as old crop inventory gets pushed into the pipeline ahead of harvest. But with 2010 supplies tight and prices high, buyers are waiting to see if they can arrange alternatives.
Old crop corn shipments were decent at 35.5 million, but that still leaves the total for the marketing year short of the amount needed to reach USDA's reduced forecast for 2010. But with prices high, buyers have an incentive to take delivery sooner, rather than later. Japan and Mexico were the leading destinations.
The U.S. continues to sell old crop soybeans to China, with the world's largest importer taking another load in the latest week. New crop purchases eased, however, with the total of old and new crop sales down to 15.5 million bushels, well below trade expectations. Shipments also lagged behind the pace forecast by USDA at 7 million bushels.
For the complete export report, click here.
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Weekly Export Sales (million bushels)
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AS OF WEEK ENDING
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8/11/11
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Actual
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Last Week
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Trade Est.
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USDA F'cast
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Export Ship-ments
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USDA F'cast
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% of USDA Commit.
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Ave.
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% of USDA Ship-ments
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Ave.
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Wheat
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20.2
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13.8
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22.1
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16.5
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23.8
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21.4
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34%
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34%
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14%
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18%
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Corn
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20.6
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29.6
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31.5
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(33.2)
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35.5
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66.6
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104%
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102%
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93%
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93%
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Soybeans
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15.5
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20.5
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25.7
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(26.3)
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7.0
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26.7
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104%
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103%
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96%
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98%
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Source: USDA, Reuters
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Tagged: usda, wheat, soybeans, Harvest
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