Have early corn ever year from the south but this year they are burning up with some of the mid west I know I see it all day every you should start looking for your self don't be leave the people that {pay} you
Posted by Anonymous on May 25 at 3:41 PM
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We'll only pull a month of new crop forward, about 375 million bushels maximum. That's one reason feed usage for 2012 will be higher. It shouldn't make a difference -- as long as yields hold up.
Posted by Bryce on May 22 at 7:31 AM
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if we use new crop to get by the last 60 days of 2012 won't we be short in 2013?????????????????????????????????????????????????????????? OR AM I MISSING SOMETHING !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Posted by Anonymous on May 19 at 5:22 PM
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If you had an additional 50 acres of groung available to plant crops on for 2012, what would you plant? Corn or beans or Oats? Which is most profitable? The land had corn on it last year. No tillage done yet.
Posted by Anonymous on May 18 at 8:26 AM
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This is an election year and Obama and Co. wants to keep grain prices , oil prices ,interest rates and unemployment low to get reelected. the USDA is just doing what his administration wants even if its lying about our grain availability. On the other side of it they might be doing American farmer a favor by obtaining more exports which we need to compete with South America. The only bad part about these prices falling so low now after the crop is planted is the producer is left holding the the risk bag as he is paying the bill on crop inputs.
Posted by Anonymous on May 14 at 11:25 AM
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another try to buy cheat the good old usda ,they still don't after everybody goes to cert. they can push one button and know what everybody planted go to crop ins. and know what everything has made or they can guess!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Posted by Anonymous on May 11 at 8:39 PM
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Wow, looks like the USDA really wants to discourage us from growing corn. Guess we should all park the planters, and switch all the acres still unplanted over to beans!
Posted by Anonymous on May 10 at 7:57 AM
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US 2012 WHEAT PRODUCTION.
The following are analysts' estimates in billions of bushels for 2012 U.S.
winter wheat production based on conditions as of May 1, as compiled by Dow
Jones Newswires. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release
updated wheat production at 8:30 a.m. EDT Thursday. Parentheses denote the
number of estimates in that average and range.
Average Range 2011
Output
All Wheat (12) 2.196 2.054-2.282 1.999
All Winter (11) 1.634 1.499-1.707 1.494
Hard Red Winter (11) 0.990 0.880-1.068 0.780
Soft Red Winter (11) 0.413 0.307-0.454 0.458
White Winter (11) 0.231 0.214-0.267 0.256
All All HRW SRW White
Wheat Winter Winter
ABN Amro 2.225 1.600 0.950 0.425 0.225
ADM Investor Services 2.282 1.694 1.000 0.427 0.267
Allendale 2.271 1.707 1.060 0.428 0.219
Citigroup 2.192 1.645 0.973 0.454 0.219
Farm Futures 2.181 1.623 1.068 0.307 0.248
Globl Cmd Analytics 2.112 n/a n/a n/a n/a
*Informa n/a 1.656 1.008 0.421 0.227
Jefferies Bache 2.054 1.499 0.880 0.405 0.214
Kropf/Love 2.138 1.630 0.975 0.425 0.230
Newedge 2.182 1.619 0.976 0.418 0.225
Prime Ag 2.254 n/a n/a n/a n/a
Rice Dairy 2.203 1.628 0.983 0.415 0.230
RJ O'Brien 2.256 1.671 1.018 0.420 0.234
*From traders
-By Andrew Johnson Jr and Ian Berry; Dow Jones Newswires; 312-347-4604;
andrew.johnsonjr@dowjones.com
US OLD/NEW CROP CARRYOUTS
CHICAGO (Dow Jones)--The following are analysts' estimates in billions of bushels for 2011-12 and 2012-13 U.S. grain and soybean ending stocks, as compiled by Dow Jones Newswires.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release updated supply and demand tables at 8:30 a.m. EDT (1230 GMT) Thursday. Parentheses denote the number of estimates in that average and range.
2011-12
April
2011-12 2010-11
Average Range USDA USDA
Corn (19) 0.758 0.660-0.801 0.801 1.128
Soybeans (19) 0.221 0.200-0.250 0.250 0.215
Wheat (17) 0.781 0.756-0.800 0.793 0.862
Corn Soybeans Wheat
ABN Amro 0.791 0.225 0.778
ADM Investor Services 0.801 0.200 0.777
Agrisource 0.760 0.210 0.775
Allendale 0.772 0.210 0.775
Citigroup 0.751 0.225 0.768
Doane Advisory Srvcs 0.701 0.215 0.778
Farm Futures 0.660 0.209 0.782
Global Comm Analytics 0.801 0.250 0.793
Jefferies Bache 0.751 0.200 0.793
Kropf and Love 0.746 0.210 0.775
McKeany-Flavell 0.775 0.250 0.800
MID-CO 0.788 0.230 0.794
Newedge USA 0.801 0.200 0.756
P.F.G. Best 0.710 0.205 0.793
Prime Ag Consultants 0.801 0.250 0.793
Rice Dairy 0.751 0.215 0.768
Risk Management Comm 0.750 0.225 n/a
RJ O'Brien 0.742 0.230 0.778
US Commodities 0.751 0.234 n/a
2012-13
Average Range
Corn (18) 1.704 1.209-2.072
Soybeans (18) 0.170 0.100-0.250
Wheat (17) 0.805 0.609-0.963
Corn Soybeans Wheat
ABN Amro 1.800 0.175 0.900
ADM Investor Services 1.665 0.122 0.8
Posted by Anonymous on May 9 at 8:14 AM
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Bryce...do you have any of the "range of analysts" numbers available for the upcoming USDA report? Wondering what kind of numbers the market is expecting to see on thursday. Thanks, always enjoy your columns.
Posted by Anonymous on May 8 at 9:29 AM
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I just finished researching an article on this topic for the next issue of Farm Futures, but can give you a sneak preview. You're right, you are vulnerable if prices rise far enough ($8), or, more likely, if yields fall. Situations will vary depending on costs, etc., but one approach is to buy a deep out of the money call -- say a $7.50 December -- to cover the risk. You can pay more, but this decreases profits if prices fall into harvest.
-- Bryce
Posted by Anonymous on April 24 at 7:33 AM
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In south central Nebraska, most of the wheat froze and is being planted to corn. I haven't seen so much corn on corn acres in 20 years- even on dry land. Our region cropping acres mix usually consist of 50% corn, 35-40% soybeans, and 10-15% wheat (excluding hay lands). That's dry land and irrigated mixed together. This year is looking like 70% corn, 2% wheat, and 28% beans. I'm forward contacted up to my insurance, I'm not sure how much corn I'll need to retain for cattle and yields are a huge question mark; therefore, I need some advice on price protection for the top 35% of my corn production as I see a huge downward risk and moderate upside potential (if the Eastern corn belt turn dry later this year).
Posted by Anonymous on April 23 at 10:32 AM
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Thanks for the reports from the field. I've seen some pictures of that 5-leaf corn that look very bad too. Have you checked on availability of seed for replanting?
And, sorry about the soybean typo. I meant old crop. Not enough coffee this morning.
-- Bryce
Posted by Anonymous on April 12 at 3:52 PM
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a lot of corn up Ill and In temp in at 23 last night not looking good
Posted by Anonymous on April 11 at 9:11 AM
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bryce,
you said""November took the biggest hit in yesterday’s selloff, with new crop suffering relatively minor losses, thanks to strong Chinese demand caused by lower production in South America"
please explain.I thought that new crop was Nov.did you mean that nov took biggest hit but still suffered minor losses or are you refering to two different contracts?
Posted by Anonymous on April 11 at 8:45 AM
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my 5 leaf corn turning dark as sun hits it
Posted by Anonymous on April 11 at 8:36 AM
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Kankakee County Illinois, temp at 27 F this morning at 5:30. Yes it was a hard freeze. No one started to plant corn till after April 6 crop insurance kicked in.
Posted by Anonymous on April 11 at 7:49 AM
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oops, misprint. Meant to say say 100 mil, not 100,000 mil!
Posted by Anonymous on April 9 at 9:51 AM
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you know how much corn is up 11111111111111111
Posted by Anonymous on April 9 at 8:03 AM
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Bryce, with regards to last weeks USDA planting intentions report, some of the other anylysts I read and follow are questioning as much as 5 million plus acres not accounted for. Weather its acres that will be reclaimed from last years flooding and wet spring that was abandoned or some acres being released from conservation programs. Any thoughts/comments on that and what we might see in the June USDA report? If this is the case, there's a very good chance of seeing over 100,000 mil. corn acres in 2012.
Posted by Anonymous on April 9 at 8:00 AM
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non gmo for me too
Posted by Anonymous on April 3 at 7:43 AM
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With China holding off on telling or acting like they are going buy corn it is obvious that USDA will make another blunder and let prices go in the toilet, letting consumers buy on a big break.
Posted by Anonymous on March 26 at 7:54 AM
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Daily reports, if any, are posted around 8 a.m. on USDA's Foreign Agricultural Services "newsroom":
http://www.fas.usda.gov/info/newsevents.asp
-- Bryce
Posted by Anonymous on March 26 at 7:03 AM
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Hi Big Fan of Farmfutures.com! I enjoy your commentary very much
I was wondering, Can you please tell me where to find the daily USDA Daily reporting system for large purchases, I can only find the weekly.
Thank you very much. A.
Posted by Anonymous on March 22 at 9:17 AM
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I am going back to raising conventional corn. GMO corn has not worked out for the extra expense of the seed. I am seeing increased demands for conventional and organic feed grains now in my area that can pay a premium. People are willing to pay me $9 to $11 per bushel for organic corn and slightly less for conventional corn right out of the field. I think the export market would prefer conventional corn also with the resistance by many consumers to buy anything GMO.
Posted by Anonymous on March 22 at 7:08 AM
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Thanks for the reply.
I’ve been reading your blog for about 2 months now and enjoy the sharp, concise analysis.
-R
Posted by Anonymous on March 10 at 5:47 AM
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I agree somewhat about the soybean to corn ratio. My research shows the dollar profit advantage of one crop vs the other has a higher statistical correlation. Even at today's prices (2.32 to 1) corn still holds a big advantage. But beans could still lure acres from spring wheat and other crops,such cotton. Corn could have 94 million and beans 76 million or more.
We release our survey numbers March 23.
--Bryce
Posted by Anonymous on March 9 at 10:18 AM
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Sorry, I have been busy writing copy for the April Farm Futures issue, including our projections for selling prices under three most likely weather scenarios.
First, about the deliveries. It's always good to keep track of this because it provides clues about demand and what may be happening in cash market. Though deliveries focus on Illinois River, it's one gauge, especially for exports. The fact that nothing registered, much less delivered, was an indication that strong basis was likely to continue. As is the inverse between March and the rest of the complex.
-- Bryce
Posted by Anonymous on March 9 at 10:09 AM
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yes can you explain the question the previous guy asked
Posted by Anonymous on March 9 at 8:24 AM
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Bryce,
Could you explain the significance of the comment that permeates many of your posts.
” There again were no deliveries today against March corn, with nothing still registered for delivery.”
I’m fairly new to the markets and what might be obvious to others is escaping me. I take it that the intent is farmers are holding tight to their corn. But also see the exact opposite as a possibility; nobody is buying at these prices.
Thanks,
-R
Posted by Anonymous on March 7 at 7:26 AM
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Bryce - I still have a few acres left to decide on corn vs. beans. I've only been following USDA reports for a couple years (young farmer!)...historically, is there much chance of the mar. 31 planting intentions report to differ from the numbers USDA released a week or 2 ago? Love your farmfuturs website. Keep up the good reporting. Thanks.
Posted by Anonymous on March 2 at 9:04 AM
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That would be way to practical and straight forward for the USDA. How on earth could they minipulate hard data like that?
Posted by Anonymous on March 1 at 12::03 PM
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Anyone know if the planting intentions reports use early order (fall/winter) seed sales numbers to help determine the amount of corn vs. bean seed? Think that would help be an inticator of how many acres will be put into what.
Posted by Anonymous on March 1 at 7:55 AM
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Bryce, every producer of course has their own situation but the 2.5 to 1 ratio is outdated. In the days of 2.35 corn and 5.88 beans is when the 2.5 to 1 had a little merit (some). Nitrogen also cost $26 per acre then also and a bag of corn was $56. Diesel .60 cents per gallon and on and on. All I'm saying is everything is different now of course. For me I like beans this year maybe a little ahead of corn currently. Beans have a better price outlook if we are forced to swallow USDA numbers. For me, on my type of ground, if I reduce corn on corn yield by at least 10%, throw on more N, labor, fuel, insurance and so on cost, beans are winning right now. I also figure the sell price of the additional corn on corn bu. less then the other bu. because I do not have storage or drying for them. They are delivered in the fall at the fall basis and at the mercy of elevator drying charges. Elevator DP and storage are not cheap either and if those bu. aren't pre-priced then why did I plant the additional corn? Anyway, that's for my operation and soils. I will say if we are going to raise 94+ million acres of corn it is not all going to be raised on high quality land. Sorry for the long answer and probably have you confused.
Posted by Anonymous on February 29 at 6:55 PM
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Seed was already booked back in november...glad it was all for beans! Figured everyone would be greedy and grow corn. Thanks USDA for making me feel better about that decision! When everyone else looks left, you gotta look right.
Posted by Anonymous on February 28 at 4:54 PM
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USDA's forecast was bullish for beans. Is anyone considering shifting acres? 2.3 to 1 soybean to corn new crop ratio historically isn't enough to do it yet.
-- Bryce
Posted by Anonymous on February 28 at 9:19 AM
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There were signs since summer last year that prices were going to decline. The commercial outlook on the charts have been signalling a bearish tone since june/july 2011. The last several USDA reports have also being slightly bearish since that time. Thats not just a coincidence. It shouldn't be a surprise that 2012 prices will not be as high as 2011. It was a bubble and it has burst. Prices can't set a record every year! Also $7, and $8 dollar corn is a very bad thing. End users, wheather it's ethanol plants, livestock feeders, or countries we export too can't afford that. It's not profitable for us farmers to grow a crop no-one can afford to buy. Who would we sell to? Our crops would be worthless. We needed a correction. 2012 will still be an excellent year...and the cycle will continue, in 2014 or 15, we will set records again. (check the charts of the last 5 years)Good luck to everyone on their up-coming growing season.
Posted by Anonymous on February 27 at 9:04 AM
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You are right, Bryce, negativity is a bad emotion. let me re-write my previous comments in a more neutral less conspiracy-theory manner:
1. Corn prices drop significantly after USDA predicts $5.00 corn this Fall.
2. USDA numbers do not reflect Rosaria's report of 83 million less bushels of Argentine corn in their inventory.
3. China's recent massive purchase of US corn and beans are not reflected in USDA's ending stocks/export numbers.
4. The USDA's report has resulted in an immediate and significant market decline.
5. Fed-subsidized crop insurance levels are based on Feb market prices and will now decline from previous levels.
No conclusions just facts.
PS I do like your column and read it every day.
Posted by Anonymous on February 27 at 8:17 AM
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USDA has their market range set and it will be reasonably close to that no matter what real conditions turn out to be. I have been at this for forty years and it seems to be that way usually. Hang on, it's an election year so who knows.
Posted by Anonymous on February 27 at 8:03 AM
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I share your belief that old crop supplies are tighter than USDA forecasts, and that it's way too early to be negative on new crop. But the overall thrust of USDA's 2012 forecast is the important take away. If yields return to normal, stocks will grow. Prices will fall. Rallies will come, and they should be used until we know otherwise.
I also think it's unwise to questions the motives of others. Conspiracy theories almost never pan out. Negativity is a bad emotion.
-- Bryce
Posted by Anonymous on February 24 at 12::42 PM
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Isn't it great. USDA declares corn will be $5 in Fall so the market drops to accommodate the prediction. This, in spite of the fact that China just bought a boatload of corn. USDA shows amazing ability to tank the corn market whenever it speaks. In spite of the fact that its latest numbers ignore the gap of 83 million less bu Argentine corn than their estimate as compared to Rosaria. Inaccuracies cost farmers money. Too bad the USDAers that make these bad calls don't have a financial penalty for making predictions that ignore hard data over and over again - always to the negative effect on our markets. Do they really think they know more about Argentine corn yields than Rosaria does? They are so cavalier in ignoring whatever they want and making predictions based on bad data. Crop revenue insurance so far has averaged $5.70/bu for Fall - thinking this is a ploy to decrease prices and lessen the Feds payment of insurance claims this Fall.
Posted by Anonymous on February 24 at 10:31 AM
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Note, that last comment is from Bryce. I'll figure this stuff out at some point.
Posted by Anonymous on February 13 at 1:26 PM
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USDA increased its estimate of 2011 crop exports by 50 million bushels, and likely will make more adjustments in the future. But the U.S. won't capture all, or even very much of the loss from Argentina. Feed wheat will eat into the potential gains, livestock producers who can buy feed at a profitable cost will cut back usage, etc. The loss in Argentina should help U.S. exports, but I don't expect a huge impact.
As for the range of analysts estimates, the wire services each do their own surveys. Arlan and I will include the range of estimates in our copy, and I put out a table the day of the report with them. The ranges vary, because each wire service talks to differrent analysts. Farm Futures estimates are included in all three.
Finally, I haven't seen that crop insurance map. USDA down the road may adjust its crop production total; our survey didn't agree with them either, obviously. That may be why March/July traded to 5.75 today.
Posted by Anonymous on February 13 at 1:25 PM
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I would like you to explain something to me. The USDA lowered South America production in soybeans by 4.5 mil. metric ton. To me that would mean that they have less to export. The United States would then have to provide atleast part of the extra bushels needed for world consumption. However, our carry out remained the same. Why did it not go down?
Posted by Anonymous on February 9 at 4:35 PM
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Bryce,can you please inform us where are the range of analysts estimates published? What are the best data sources for analyst info? Thanks
Posted by Anonymous on February 9 at 9:16 AM
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well witch way does big money want the crops to go today hold on to your a-- !!!!!!
Posted by Anonymous on February 9 at 7:46 AM
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Bryce when you look at the map of insurance loss posted on farm futures it is really hard to believe the 2011 crop was as big as USDA says it was.
Posted by Glen on February 7 at 8:05 AM
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never mind
Posted by Anonymous on February 6 at 7:36 AM
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Bryce
I have Dalian lower across the board today. What am I missing?
Posted by Anonymous on February 6 at 7:33 AM
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Just thought I'd get my 2cts in:
cts cts
Keep up the good work
Posted by Anonymous on February 3 at 10:26 AM
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To quote from Monty Python: And now, for something completely different...Hopes for shift to bullish sesonal pattern remains unfulfilled for now.
Posted by Anonymous on January 30 at 8:51 AM
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As for trees we all like them my house is made from trees I have trees in my yard when people harvest trees they replant more trees to harvest again I like the heat in my house that natural gas provides and the electricity from my local coal fired plant that makes my heater and air conditioner work but the president hates I like the people that work at all of these places it all so lets a lot of anonymous people complain about us in evil agriculture.All of the above likable people repay me by wearing cotton, eating, and trading the products I produce.So for all that do not like modern technology you can go back to living in the 1800's it will be fun camping out all year long 100 plus down to sub zero,
Posted by Glen on January 30 at 8:10 AM
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I assume this is directed at farmers? I am no longer a farmer, but work in the ag retail business. I assume your upset that some farmers are tearing out trees and pasture in order to farm more ground. In some instances I would have to agree with you but on the other hand we have 7 billion in this world that are depending on us to feed them. There is not more ground to buy and farm so we have to do the best we can with what we do have. If a farmer farms around a pocket of trees that equals 3 acres...that amount of ground could feed 450 more people.
Just my thought on it.
Posted by Anonymous on January 27 at 3:30 PM
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Having just sent a comment at 10:54, I wish to add this further thought. I was born and raised in S. D. but no longer live there but have friends and relatives who do. I am offended by your pursuit to chop, burn and destroy what pioneers worked so hard to do. The destruction of the beautification of the land that God gave us is disgraceful! What do you have against trees???? God gave us this beautiful earth and instructed us to care for it. You care for it by destroying it. You profess to be such God loving and fearing people but you are "hell bent" on making the beauty look like a total wasteland. Do you think God sits on his heavenly throne and smiles at your destruction? Not likely! I think you are a greedy people and that on judgement day you will have a lot to answer to.
Posted by Anonymous on January 26 at 11:13 AM
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GMO snow, made by the same USDA researchers who do the stocks survey! As for $2 corn, I did an analysis in Oct. FF (http://magissues.farmprogress.com/FFU/FF10Oct11/ffu44.pdf) on how corn could fall to $2. It's possible, but would take a perfect storm: 180 bpa yield, financial crisis, etc.)
Posted by Bryce on January 24 at 10:41 AM
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I am glad you relieved my concern of lack of snow cover on my wheat. It must be this new GMO snow, its there you just can'f see it
Posted by Anonymous on January 19 at 7:29 PM
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I am glad you relieved my concern of lack of snow cover on my wheat. It must be this new GMO snow, its there you just can'f see it
Posted by Anonymous on January 19 at 7:28 PM
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With all the ups and downs in the world market, do you think we will be able to sustain the $5-6 dollar mark from here on out or do you forsee a $2.00 market again?
Posted by Anonymous on January 19 at 8:51 AM
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With all the ups and downs in the world market, do you think we will be able to sustain the $5-6 dollar mark from here on out or do you forsee a $2.00 market again?
Posted by Anonymous on January 19 at 8:45 AM
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I would like to know where the 300 mil. bu. that USDA some times finds and then looses actually is in the corn supply at present they seem to have found it but if they loose it farm futures numbers are pretty close which I think is more realistic but if we use that number USDA believes the price will get to high and hurt exports and there bottom line
Posted by Glen on January 18 at 8:02 AM
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Good to see a nice, healthy discussion. That's what makes it a market.
Posted by Bryce on January 18 at 6:36 AM
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every year I SAY REMEMBER YEARS BEFORE THEY WILL BE WRONG BUT YOU MAKE TI SOUND SO RIGHT I TAKE THE BATE AGAIN. IT MUST BE ME I FORGET WHAT SIDE YOU AR ON.
Posted by Anonymous on January 16 at 7:47 AM
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hit the nail on the head again
Posted by Anonymous on January 16 at 7:35 AM
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Is this just another way to slow a rally to cheapen the cost of food and ethanol... the truth will set you free...
Posted by Anonymous on January 13 at 1:09 PM
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Bryce and Arlan, unfortunate to see people being so negative towards you both. I really appreciate your market analysis and the farm futures website. Lots of excellent information. I also notice you both always say after any "predictions" that surprises are possible and reports are predictably unpredictable. Your job is to take the numbers your given, and tell us what the market and traders are thinking, and you do a wonerful job of that given how irrational both of them are. Lets also remember that the "harvest lows" in the futures in 2011 were (ballparking)in the range of $5.60-$5.80 corn...how many years in the past would we have been so fortunate to have that for a yearly high? If your not making money on $5.60 corn, there's something seriously wrong with your operation and you'd better stop farming. Perhaps big guys will have to stop offering insane money like $350-$400/ac for rent, and $12,000+/ac purchases when we come back to reality on crop prices and interest rates. Might give smaller operators a chance to grow. I think it's also fortunate for our fellow livestock farmers to see a price correction so they can recover from last years expensive feed. Keep up the excellent work from all the staff at FarmFutures.com Ian.
Posted by Anonymous on January 13 at 8:48 AM
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So, do you guys actually get paid for your input? Please tell me this is just a hobby and you actually do something productive to make an honest living. Blame it on the USDA all you want, but I have never read more inaccurate projections and commentary. Oh, and if you do get paid, could you tell me where to send my resume??? I want in on this.
Posted by Anonymous on January 12 at 2:12 PM
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These reports are the most highly bogus figures that seldom make any mathematical or logical sense. These guesses that Washington puts out are just that, guesses. Hopefully end users will step up on the govs opportunity and fill their needs.
Posted by Anonymous on January 12 at 12::57 PM
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These reports are the most highly bogus figures that seldom make any mathematical or logical sense. These guesses that Washington puts out are just that, guesses. Hopefully end users will step up on the govs opportunity and fill their needs.
Posted by Anonymous on January 12 at 11:40 AM
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Bryce and Arlan,
You boys have been on the wrong side of the last several USDA reports. Usually the Jan. report is when USDA has to clean up their books and confess their "mistakes". Didn't happen plus they went the other way a little. Your guys estimation always seems to be well thought out and logical. So which one is it in your opinion? If you don't see it like USDA take you mittens off and say it like it is. Political correctness needs to leave the room. Respectively
Posted by Anonymous on January 12 at 10:43 AM
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Any time you do a survey there's a margin of error. Even a small MOE with 12 billion bushel corn crop is a lot.
Posted by Bryce on January 12 at 9:54 AM
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Latest OTC trades in March corn down 40; elevators taking protection.
Posted by Bryce on January 12 at 9:52 AM
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I will make it 550.00
Posted by Anonymous on January 12 at 8:39 AM
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going to up my cash rent to 500. now
Posted by Anonymous on January 12 at 8:37 AM
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I dont know what to believe anymore or who has any accounting skills USDA or Farm Futures
by Glen
Posted by Glen on January 12 at 8:35 AM
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January USDA Reports
2011 Crop Production
Thursday's
USDA
Estimate
billion bushels
Corn 12.358
Soybeans 3.056
2011 Crop Yields
Corn 147.2
Soybeans 41.5
2011 Crop Ending Stocks
Thursday's
USDA
Estimate
billion bushels
Wheat 870
Corn 846
Soybeans 275
Winter wheat seedings
Thursday's
USDA
Estimate
million acres
Total 41.947
Hard red 30.1
Soft red 8.37
White 3.49
Dec. 1 Grain Stocks
Thursday's
USDA
Estimate
billion bushels
Wheat 1.656
Corn 9.642
Soybeans 2.366
2011 World Ending Stocks
million metric tons
Thursday's
USDA
Estimate
Wheat 210.02
Corn 128.47
Soybeans 63.43
Posted by Bryce on January 12 at 8:21 AM
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Latest OTC trades in March corn down 40; elevators taking protection.
Posted by Bryce on January 12 at 8:21 AM
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USDA report is causing a lot of headscratching in corn, along with drop in wheat feeding
Posted by Bryce on January 12 at 8:20 AM
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you can"t make up time when it"s hot and dry been there to many times!
Posted by Anonymous on January 9 at 8:20 AM
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you can"t make up time when it"s hot and dry been there to many times!
Posted by Anonymous on January 9 at 8:19 AM
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USDA has really no clue on what is going on with all grains being stored but they have complete control of the market with what they say. Story hasn't changed for the forty years that I have been farming and it won't in the futue either. Thank you for your daily insight on what is going on worldwide, much appreciated.
Posted by Anonymous on December 20 at 11:02 AM
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Glad Vilsack had such a successful marketing trip to Asia. It really shows in our export numbers. Maybe he can join his boss in Hawaii for the next 17 days?
Posted by Anonymous on December 9 at 10:26 AM
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how can we believe what numbers the USDA puts out.
Posted by Anonymous on December 9 at 10:26 AM
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Maybe Ron Paul will win and the USDA will be disbanded?
Posted by Anonymous on December 9 at 10:24 AM
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more bull----
Posted by Anonymous on December 9 at 8:19 AM
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This is starting to happen slowly. From my Nov. 9 Fertilizer Review:
Potash Corp in February said it would begin an 18-month process to restart its Geismar, LA, plant. And just last week CF Industries announced plants to “debottleneck” part of its Donaldsonville, LA, facility, which it bought as part of its takeover of Terra Industries. But these and other projects remain a drop in the bucket. As CF said in its recently quarterly report, they would not be ”likely to be
large enough to change the supply/demand balance materially in the U.S. ammonia market, which currently imports about one-third of its requirements.”
Posted by Bryce on November 29 at 7:36 PM
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Bryce: Given the low natural gas prices due to the shale gas boom,. when will producers re-open or build ammonia capacity in these United States! A lot was shut when gas prices were in the $8 to $12 price!
Posted by Anonymous on November 18 at 9:39 AM
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My theory is that all the cattle and hogs are at Weight Watchers.
Posted by Bryce on October 12 at 5:30 PM
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Bryce, what do you think, do we have some secret bins out there? It's kind of like a shell game run by some very large merchants "Now You See It... Now You Don't!"
Posted by Anonymous on October 12 at 8:52 AM
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get out of bed and post the report
Posted by Anonymous on October 12 at 7:52 AM
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Hey Bryce, get your rally hat back on!
Posted by S. Kelley on October 12 at 7:42 AM
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We project harvested corn acres will be 527,000 lower, based on the crop insurance data reported so far. Admittedly, that's a bit of a guess, because we have only a couple years of data to analyze.
Posted by Bryce on October 6 at 5:12 PM
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Sanctions are unlikely. We want cheap stuff from China, they hold our IOUs and they want our soybeans and corn. Politicians in both countries benefit from the rhetoric, but reality should keep them from actual action.
Posted by Bryce on October 6 at 5:11 PM
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How will sanctions against China affect their potential imports of corn per the USGC?
Posted by Anonymous on October 5 at 8:16 AM
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Bryce,
In your opinion is there any way the USDA math is correct on corn? Could this be the prelude work for an adjustment lower in 2011 corn acres later?
Posted by Anonymous on September 30 at 9:44 AM
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do you think the crop is the only thing to set the price it has less to do with it than anything. talk all you want big money has the say!
Posted by Anonymous on September 20 at 8:53 AM
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Listen to my interview this morning with Pam Jahnke
http://farmfutures.com/story.aspx/grain-markets-turn-around-monday-and-could-move-higher-tuesday-17/53231
-- I agree that sometimes price movements are tough to discern. But don't fall for conspiracy theories. Focus on charts and long-term fundamentals. Dec corn turned around right where the chart said it could Monday. I include these charts in Farm Futures Daily, our free email newsletter.
http://circulation.farmprogress.com/NewsletterCatalog.aspx
Finally, frost damage always takes a while to show up. But I really saw it in my neighborhood, 20 miles north of Illinois border in southern Wisconsin.
Posted by Bryce on September 20 at 8:15 AM
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What is going on in the corn market?? All news is bad news for yields! Kind of convenient for the market to drop 70 cents when price discovery is being set across southern states with extreme drought. Worst in 50 years!
Posted by Anonymous on September 19 at 8:23 AM
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What is going on in the corn market?? All news is bad news for yields! Kind of convenient for the market to drop 70 cents when price discovery is being set across southern states with extreme drought. Worst in 50 years!
Posted by Anonymous on September 19 at 8:05 AM
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What is going on in the corn market?? All news is bad news for yields! Kind of convenient for the market to drop 70 cents when price discovery is being set across southern states with extreme drought. Worst in 50 years!
Posted by Anonymous on September 19 at 8:04 AM
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Frost this morning in Kingston, IL. Late May planted beans, 2.2 maturity, 50% yellow and some dropped leaves are now lodged and curled leaves. While 2.5 beans planted the same date are still mostly green and while are lodged somewhat, do not show the same damage.
Posted by Anonymous on September 15 at 8:00 PM
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2nd grade math problem. Unfortunately, I only made it to 1st grade. But, with my limited capacity, I think you prefer the #11.
Posted by Anonymous on September 15 at 7:07 PM
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Bryce,
Frost @ Kempton, IL 60946 this AM. If frost this far south, how much damage 100 -150 miles north.
Marty Malone
Posted by Anonymous on September 15 at 8:53 AM
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A trader holding an in the money call upon expiration will automatically be assigned a futures position (short for puts, long for calls) unless they give instructions otherwise. When futures settle near a strike price, some may abandon in the money options, or exercise out of the money options. Sometimes, this is just to offset other positions. Other times it can be an indication of sentiment.
Posted by Anonymous on September 9 at 7:38 AM
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I agree
Posted by Anonymous on September 2 at 8:11 AM
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Hi Bryce, these abandoned calls, what does this mean please.
Posted by Anonymous on August 29 at 1:46 PM
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Looks like some is headed to Illinois; did it get to your part of Western Illinois?
Posted by Bryce on August 20 at 11:18 AM
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In your comments you discussed the possiblity of rain. I've been in my western Ill fields this week and any corn planted on-time will not be helped by rain. The beans yes! Corn no! fully dented and drying down. We've had 0.9" rain since the first of July and nothing much on the horizon. We were considered the garden spot on July 1
Posted by Swampoak on August 15 at 9:55 AM
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The straight line wind event this week may have damaged 250,000 to 500,000 acres from Iowa along the Illinois/Wisconsin border and east. Here in my neighborhood of southern Wisconsin there were limbs down and a lot of corn leaning over, but I only a few patches of fields that were really tossed.
Posted by Bryce on July 12 at 7:17 PM
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Extreme winds snapped off corn stalks in West Central Iowa. Also, much corn was lodged and leaves shredded. Winds in excess of 60 mph Sunday night. What looked to be bumper crop suddenly was reduced to average here.
Posted by iowafarm on June 28 at 8:25 AM
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S Korea may be delaying corn purchases because there is no FTA ratified. Are Vilsack and Obama asleep at the wheel? Why should S Korea buy corn from us when they don't have a free trade treaty? Wake up Washington - we need another election before we lose all of our export market.
Posted by iowafarm on March 9 at 7:27 AM
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This behavior is actually typical of the market. When current year stocks are tighter, the market bull often spreads; the market wants the corn now. In the crude oil market this is known as backwardation. The opposite is contango, when deferreds sell for far more than current year or nearbys. That's the situation we had a couple of years ago, when funds were buying deferreds for long-term ownership. Nearby stocks were not as tight, but the market believe they would ultimately get much tighter due to ethanol demand.
Posted by Bryce on October 5 at 3:18 PM
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Please explain why with the current low corn stock to usage ratio CBOT corn July 2012 is trading at a discount to corn July 2011? Doesn't make sense!
Posted by D. Allem on September 30 at 1:52 AM
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"Snap tender" is the trade's jargon for the way Egypt and some other importers do some of their buying. They put out notice of the tender in the evening and grain merchandisers must provide offers the following day. Other countries circulate tenders for days or even weeks before the closing deadline, but Egypt is such a huge buyer it can move quickly to take advantage of breaks in prices.
Posted by Bryce on September 28 at 7:46 AM
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I don't look for wheat prices to collapse, because there's too much uncertainty around the world for 2011. The situationin WA is part of that dynamic. While supplies in the U.S. are more than adequate, we'll benefit from logicstical issues in Australia -- lack of wheat in exportable position in WA due to lower production. Key issues here in the U.S. won't be settled anytime soon -- seedings face competition from corn, beans and cotton, and weather remains dry in many areas. Russia is getting more rain but still will plant fewer acres. All of which should tend to support prices.
That said, selling rallies is never a bad idea, if you have the grain to back it up.
Posted by Bryce on September 28 at 7:43 AM
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Hey Bryce I am a farmer in Western Australias Mid west and we have had very warm weather over the last 5 to 10 days which I think will reduce production evan further , the south westis almost a right off unless you are 100 km appro to the coast and evan large areas in that proximity are very poor , my brother in law 80 km south of perth is desperate for feed and if he is thenso is every body else . Lupins a little like soy I suppose farmer to farmer are at ++ $310 on farm .
I think that if we ave 1.5 tonns to the hect I would take it tommorrow,If Wa ,West Auss does not get a signifficant rain in the next 5 to 8 days it will all be to late and most domestic grain will be swallowed up , Big areas that are normaly bullet proof eg Wongan Hills , Northam ,Newdegate are experiencing worse conditions than what we did in 2006 and 2007 we averaged .5 tonn 2006 .8 tonn 2007 which is equiv to , two and a half bags2006 to the acre . So in summarry WA is in serious drought in a large area majority of the state and the mid west will be well below average ,
What do you think for 20011 grain sales as I am fairly well sold for this season , I have sold some, 10% of noodle production @ $339 Aussie dollars ,
Marketing grain seems to be very much a challenge as volatility is rife I would enjoy to here advice on twelve month strategy . Grain marketers here were saying sell sell when wheat hit $250 aussie and it has since gone $100 higher .
I think accessing the correct information is vital on a global scale , and main stream media is no where . Reguards Roger D
Posted by livy on September 25 at 8:56 PM
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Hello Bryce, read your posts and weekly reviews, thanks for the relative, up to date writings.
Could you please explain what a "Snap Tender" is?
Posted by Dsnbrckfrms on September 23 at 10:15 AM
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Hyperbolic markets don't last, and with the RSI above 95 it was due for a correction/consolidation of at least modest duration. Watch the spreads: If futures rally but bull spreads don't, it's time to be nervous.
Posted by Bryce on September 22 at 12::50 PM
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NOTE: Dated comments to this post will be deleted - we do not "edit" comments, but we do moderate. Thanks for your input.
Posted by Willie Vogt on November 13 at 7:44 AM
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