Lower Weights Trim Meat Supplies
Winter weather causes tighter meat supplies, lifts meat and livestock prices.
John Otte
Published: Mar 8, 2010
Butcher hogs, slaughter steers and slaughter heifers are all coming to market at lighter weights compared to a year ago.
Lighter weights mean fewer supplies. Lower supplies are price construc-tive.
Why are weights down? A series of winter storms proceeding across the Plains and through the Corn Belt disrupted feedlot gains. Bad weather slows gains in feedlot cattle.
Pork producers blame poor quality 2009 crop corn for slowing gains and keeping weights lower than producers would like when the calendar and the con-tract call for delivering to the packer.
Year-to-date beef production is down 1.7%. Recent live and dressed steer prices have been 10% to 12% higher than a year ago. Beef cutout values are up 8% or so.
Year-to-date pork production is down almost 3%. Recent hog prices have been running 6% to 8% above a year ago. Recent gains in pork cutout values, up roughly 20% from a year ago, are helping pull hog prices higher.
Year-over-year gains in cattle prices are stronger than year-over-year gains in pork partly because the severe and eroding economic conditions a year ago weighed heavily on beef and cattle prices.
Broiler output recovering Chicken supplies are up 2% compared to a year ago. However, chicken prices are mixed, ranging from up 4.5% to down 4%, depending on market segment.
Year-to-date turkey production is down 4.4%. Recent turkey prices have been up about 2.7%.
Prospects for the rest of 2010 For the year USDA pro-jects beef production will be down 1.85%, pork down 1.6%, broiler production up 1.03% and turkey output almost identical to last year.
USDA’s annual average price predictions are:
- Choice Nebraska fed steers, up 4% to 12.5%
- Oklahoma City feeder steers, up 3% to 11.3%
- Boning utility cows, up 2.2% to 10.7%
- Barrows and gilts, up 6.7% to 16.4%
- Broilers, down 2.1% to up 4.4%
- Turkeys, down 1.1% to up 6.4%
Those changes are all compared to 2009 annual averages.
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Tagged: usda, Corn Belt, gilts, barrows
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