Know your Competitor
Who else wants to boost rice export market share?
John Otte
Published: Apr 7, 2010
One step toward capturing growing export markets for rice is to identify major importers. Another part is scoping out competing suppliers and watching their crop development to get a feel for when opportunities to capture market share may exist.
USDA’s interagency outlook committees project Asia will remain the largest rice-exporting region from now through 2019.
Acreage and yields up
Rice exports from Thailand and Vietnam, the world’s largest rice-exporting countries, will likely account for more than half of world trade in rice and for nearly 40% of the growth in world exports in the coming decade. USDA projects Thailand’s exports will rise 2.6 million tons to more than 12 million by 2019. Thai-land seems likely to plant more area and get higher yields.
Vietnam’s rice export expansion will likely be smaller, rising from 5.5 to 6.8 million tons. Per capita rice consumption will likely decline in both Thailand and Vietnam as incomes rise.
India has typically been the third- or fourth-largest rice exporter since the mid-1990s. But India’s export levels have been volatile, primarily due to fluctuat-ing stock levels and Government policies. India’s exports have declined during the last several years as most exports of non-basmati rice have been banned since the 2008 spike in world prices. USDA projects India’s rice exports will rise to about 3.8 million tons by 2019, assuming that the export ban is lifted early in the projection period.
U.S. exports should rise
Pakistan and the United States have each been exporting around 3 million tons in recent years. Both are projected to raise their exports to nearly 3.8 million over the next decade.
Pakistan has sharply boosted its rice area and production in the past few years. In 2008, Pakistan gained markets due to India’s self-imposed ban on its exports of non-basmati rice. However, Pakistan’s agricultural sector is confront-ing a growing water shortage and a decaying infrastructure, limiting production and export gains.
U.S. expansion in rice exports will likely come from a slight area expansion, continued yield growth and slow growth in domestic use.
Acreage down, yields up
USDA projects China, the sixth-largest rice-exporting country, will double rice exports to 2.8 million tons by 2019. Little change in production or total disappearance is expected.
Higher yields are projected to offset declining area as China allows the use of genetically modified rice. Reductions in per capita consumption, a result of continued diet diversification resulting from higher incomes, are expected to offset population growth.
China will also likely build rice stocks during the projection period.
Australia will likely exit the rice export market due to competing demands for water and uncertainty regarding the availability of irrigation water.
Permalink: Click here
Tagged: usda, Irrigation
|