Farmers Could Plant More Corn, Less Soybeans Next Year
Farm Futures first survey of 2010 intentions shows surprising trend, at least based on prices.
Compiled by staff
Published: Sep 1, 2009
Farmers could increase corn ground next year and devote less acreage to soybeans, according to Farm Futures Magazine's first survey of 2010 planting intentions. Results of the survey were released this morning on the first day of the Farm Progress Show.
While farmers are only beginning to think about next year's crops, the early choice would be to add corn acres, after producers devoted more of their land to soybeans in 2009. Farm Futures puts initial 2010 corn acreage at 87.5 million, up 500,000 from the latest USDA estimate for 2009 allocations. Soybean acreage would fall to 75 million, from 77.7 million this year.
Perhaps almost as surprising, farmers said they plan to plant more wheat for harvest in 2010, some 61.1 million acres, up 2% from this year. But the Farm Futures survey found all the increase would take place in the hard red winter wheat grown on the Plains, a crop that will be planted soon. Other classes of wheat would see acreage drop slightly from this year's level.
"Corn/soybean price ratios favor soybeans, but many farmers have been disappointed the last two years by their soybean crops," says Farm Futures Senior Editor Bryce Knorr, who directed the survey. "Plus, after planting more beans this year, farmers may want to realign their rotations."
Farm Futures Market Analyst Arlan Suderman says the survey reflects current farmer thinking, which could change by the time planting decisions are actually finalized over the winter.
"We could easily see things change this winter when farmers pencil out input costs against returns," Suderman says.
"As for hard red winter wheat, it is the low-cost crop in the Plains. Morale is dropping in the country with money getting a bit tighter. If farmers have moisture this fall, they'll plant wheat and then decide next spring what to do with it."
Suderman, who is based in Wichita, KS, keeps a close eye on the crop from the heart of winter wheat country.
Farm Futures surveyed 741 growers from around the U.S. by email from July 24 to August 5. After releasing results of the acreage survey today, Knorr and Suderman will discuss the findings in daily presentations at the Farm Progress Show. They'll also go over the implications for 2010 prices in their weekly online video program, The Buzz, at www.FarmFutures.com
2010 Acreage Intentions (in millions)
Corn 87.5
Soybeans 75
Total Wheat 61.1
Total Winter Wheat 45.1
Soft Red Winter 8.2
Hard Red Winter 33.3
White Winter 3.6
Other Spring 13.4
Durum 2.5
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Tagged: farm, wheat, farm futures, soybeans, winter wheat
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