Tuesday morning at 8:30 eastern USDA's National Ag Statistics Service reports its first of the new year crop forecast. Early trade estimates are wider than usual. Average estimates for corn production range from 12.5 to almost 13 billion bushels, with the average guess at 12.81 billion. The range of soybean crop estimates is 3.2 to 3.4 billion bushels, with the average at 3.33 billion. The average trade estimate for corn is about 100 million bushels below USDA's December estimate, while the average bean number is up 18 million bushels from a month ago.
Most trade pegs the US corn crop at just four million bushels shy of 13 billion. The soybean estimate is the same as last month's USDA estimate of 3.3 billion bushels. Allendale expects USDA to raise corn ending stocks by 56 million bushels, while cutting the soybean carryout 15 million, and wheat ending stocks by two million bushels. Winter wheat seedings are expected to be down 4.5% from a year ago.
Farm Futures Senior Editor Bryce Knorr predicted U.S. corn plantings could be up to as much as nearly 89.5 million acres; 3 million more than last year. And Knorr set U.S. soybean plantings at 80 million acres; another 2.5 million more that planted in 2009. The reason being that many farmers with wheat acreage were prohibited from planting their fall wheat and will switch.
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