Corn, Soybean Sales Still Weak
Another sluggish week for exports confirms USDA’s decision to trim its projections for the 2010 crop marketing year.
Bryce Knorr
Published: May 12, 2011
USDA’s decision to lower its forecasts for 2010 crop corn and soybean exports in Wednesday’s monthly supply and demand report didn’t encounter much resistance from traders. And after another sluggish week of sales data released today, there’s even less room for arguing with the government’s projections.
Corn sales totaled 18 million bushels, in line with trade guesses and up from last week’s dismal showings. Still, shipments continue to lag the pace needed to reach USDA’s new forecast, suggesting even that could be too much. High prices have foreign buyers looking for cheaper alternatives, either feed wheat or fresh supplies from South America.
Soybean sales improved from last week, but that’s not saying much. Total new bookings for the latest week were 2.3 million bushels, and China cancelled another load according to USDA. More troubling is the pace of shipments, which totaled 6.7 million bushels, half the rate needed to reach USDA’s lower target for the marketing year that ends August 31. USDA cut its forecast of total sales for 2010 crop by 30 million bushels in yesterday’s report.
Wheat sales remain the bright spot of the export market. Total sales of old and new crop held steady from last week’s 20.2 million bushels, and shipments were a brisk 37.8 million. Still, the pace of shipments remains behind the pace needed to reach USDA’s forecast for the year ending May 31, which could lead to revisions in carryout in a month or two.
USDA made no changes to its wheat supply and demand balance sheet for 2011, but said exports would fall off dramatically in the coming year as world wheat production rebounds.
For the complete export report, click here.
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Weekly Export Sales (million bushels)
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AS OF WEEK ENDING
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5/5/11
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Actual
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Last Week
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Trade Est.
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USDA F'cast
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Export Ship-ments
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USDA F'cast
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% of USDA Commit.
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Ave.
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% of USDA Ship-ments
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Ave.
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Wheat
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20.2
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20.2
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18.4
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(7.9)
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37.8
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50.6
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95%
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90%
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71%
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75%
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Corn
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18.0
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11.2
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17.7
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16.8
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33.9
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44.8
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84%
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84%
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61%
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67%
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Soybeans
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2.3
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0.8
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7.4
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2.4
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6.7
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13.0
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96%
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93%
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85%
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84%
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Source: USDA, Reuters
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Tagged: usda, wheat, soybean, soybeans
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