Corn Market's Long Wait Is Almost Over
Planting intentions released on Tuesday.
Bryce Knorr
Published: Mar 30, 2009
Sometimes it seems like we spend most of the time waiting for the next big USDA report. That statement is so true, I've probably written it before. But this time, it really is true.
USDA releases results of its 2009 Planting Intentions survey on Tuesday, an event that's likely to define the corn market until weather either emerges as an issue, or doesn't. What really surprises me is the wide range of estimates, from 80 million to 89 million, with the average trade guess at 84.3 million acres. Farm Futures, one of the 20 or so groups polled by wire services, estimates plantings at 82.46 million, based on our independent survey of farmers.
A big number out of USDA likely would sink the market for now, but even a relatively bullish estimate might not produce much of a rally. If this is a "normal" year — and so far, that's the way it's shaping up — December futures doesn't rally for more than a few days as the initial impact of the report wears off. Any rally, say to $4.50 or better, is likely to have farmers calling seed dealers to find the best hybrids in stock. It's also likely to bring a new wave of old crop corn onto the market that would dwarf selling seen last week when May futures briefly topped $4.
To read Bryce Knorr's complete weekly corn review, click HERE.
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