Bush Carries 12 Point Lead in Rural States
New poll shows among likely voters in rural parts of 17 swing states, 53% favor Bush.
Compiled by staff
Published: Oct 24, 2004
Republican George W. Bush maintains a 12-point lead over Democrat John Kerry among rural voters in battleground states, according to the most recent poll by the 80-55 Coalition for Rural America.
Among likely voters in rural parts of 17 swing states, 53% favor Bush while 41% favor Kerry. The result is essentially unchanged from September, when Bush led the rural battleground by 13 points, 55% to 42%.
"President Bush has solidified his vote in the rural areas," says Bill Greener, a Republican strategist and an adviser to the poll. "I believe this will be sufficient to tip the scales in several critical states and give the president a victory overall."
Adviser Anna Greenberg, a Democratic pollster, says the survey showed Kerry continued to perform better on economic issues among rural voters.
"For Democrats the good news is that Kerry improved his standing among rural blue-collar voters," Greenberg says. "If the discussion moves to economic recovery in rural America, Kerry is going to continue to pick up votes there."
The 2004 campaign has seen an increasing emphasis put on attracting rural voters, says Dee Davis, president of the Center for Rural Strategies, which commissioned the poll.
"When we see Bush speaking in front of hay bales and Kerry walking a field with a shotgun cradled in his arm, we get the message that the rural vote is important," Davis says. "This election could very well be determined in the next few days by the rural margins in a few states."
The poll also found that:
· Bush continues to receive heavy support from devout Evangelical Christians in the rural battleground (73%). Rural mainline Protestants and Catholics were more evenly split between the two candidates (51% prefer Kerry).
· Bush has strong support from rural gun owners. Among those who own three or more guns, Bush leads by 22 points, 59 to 37%. Non gun-owners in the rural battleground prefer Kerry by 9 points, 52 to 43%.
· Bush lost ground among rural women in the past month, moving from a 10 point advantage in September (53% Bush to 43% Kerry) to a 7 point advantage in October (51 to 44%).
· Bush improved among rural senior citizens, going from 42% support in September to 53% in October.
· Kerry improved his performance with rural blue collar voters, increasing from 43% in September to 50% in October.
· Kerry improved among rural older women, from 46% in September to 50% in October.
· Rural battleground voters are slightly more optimistic than the rest of the country about the direction the nation is headed, but nearly half (49%) still think the country is on the wrong track. Nationally, 55% of likely voters think the nation is on the wrong track.
The nonpartisan poll was commissioned on behalf of the 80-55 Coalition for Rural America, composed of groups and individuals across the United States who seek to improve opportunities for rural communities. The coalition is named for the fact that 80% of the nation's land area is rural, as are 55 million of its residents.
The poll interviewed 513 likely voters on Oct. 19-20 from non-metropolitan counties in Arizona, Arkansas, Florida, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Nevada, New Mexico, New Hampshire, Ohio, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Washington, West Virginia and Wisconsin. The poll's margin of error is plus or minus 4.4%.
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