The soybean market took a couple of body blows last week, but survived until the closing bell on Friday more or less in tact. But there are plenty of questions about whether the rally's days are numbered.
Bullish expectations continue to come from reduced estimates of South American production. The latest came from the grain exchange in Argentine, 120 million bushels below USDA's current estimates.
Strong exports already underpin the market, with my model suggesting old crop ending stocks should continue to tighten. But questions about the future of sales to China emerged last week. Officials there questioned whether local companies had imported too much, and China didn't show up very heavily, directly at least, on the weekly export sales report. The country's annual trade delegation also wasn't expected to buy as much as usual, due to all the uncertainty.
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