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Beans Face Moment of Truth

New crop acreage is sword hanging over market.
Bryce Knorr 
Published: Mar 30, 2009

That scurrying noise you heard at the end of last week may have just been the cold March wind. But it sure sounded like rats leaving a sinking ship.

It didn't take much to break the market, after last week's rally faltered at chart resistance. Reports — not yet confirmed — that China might start selling some of its reserves, coupled with the end to the week-long farmers strike in Argentina, sent prices sharply lower, creating a bearish reversal on the weekly chart.

Of course, the rodents who matter — money managers — are actually walking the wrong way up the gangplank. Index and speculative hedge funds added around 25,000 contracts to net long positions in the latest week, according to Friday's CFTC report. Volume in the bean market was greater than seen in corn, which for now is a good thing. The real sword hanging over the market remains new crop acreage.

To read Bryce Knorr's complete weekly soybean review, click HERE.



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