Ag Climatologist Predicts Hot July
West Corn Belt could see less rainfall than normal; Eastern Corn Belt expected to see normal rainfall.
Tom J Bechman
Published: Jun 8, 2006
Rainfall will be variable from one side of the Belt to the other. Best chances for near normal rainfall are in the Eastern Corn Belt, says Jim Newman, retired ag climatologist from West Lafayette, Ind. Moving farther west in the Corn Belt this summer should ramp up the odds of drier weather and less rainfall than normal for those corn-growing regions.
If there is a silver lining, it's that Newman isn't always right! He pegs the odds of a hotter-than-normal July at 60 to 70%, based upon how strongly he feels about the likelihood of these conditions developing. That still means there is a 30 to 40% chance that he won't be right.
Over time his track record likely fits that the 60 to 70% correct range fairly easily. He forecast last winter correctly well in advance, but his spring predictions were off-target. Most of Indiana didn't see the working windows for fieldwork during key periods of April and early May that his spring forecast predicted.
It's not a cop-out, but spring and fall are the hardest seasons for an ag climatologist dealing in long-term weather forecasts to predict correctly, Newman advises. It's because they are the transitional periods of the year, and weather systems sometimes wind up in a state of flux. "We know the Jet Stream will move back north sometime during May, but we never know when, nor how much rainy weather that will bring along with it," he adds.
This current prediction for July is based upon a trough of low pressure and relatively cool, moist weather setting up from Pennsylvania north and eastward. That would tend to throw ridges in the atmosphere over the central Corn Belt, Newman explains. Ridges tend to block fronts from moving through normally and can lead to drier, warmer weather patterns.
The Great Plains area is likely to be hot and dry. That's why Newman has the most concern about the growing season, especially for corn, in that area. "It's possible some of that heat from the Great Plains could drift into the Western Corn Belt," he notes.
Illinois will be the battleground state for establishing the dominant weather trend for the season. That's nothing new. During the past two seasons, Illinois corn growers have fretted out dry seasons, particularly last year. Yet yields were surprisingly good.
Illinois is the big question mark, again, Newman notes. Which conditions develop there could go a long way toward determining size of the U.S. corn crop this year.
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Tagged: Corn Belt, corn crop
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