and other thing... the weather "guessers' are talking rain in the 7-10 day forcast???? REALLY?!? you dumb basterds cant tell us whats going to happen tomorrow morning let alone whats going to happen the end of next week!
Posted by Anonymous on May 22 at 5:58 PM
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and other thing... the weather "guessers' are talking rain in the 7-10 day forcast???? REALLY?!? you dumb basterds cant tell us whats going to happen tomorrow morning let alone whats going to happen the end of next week!
Posted by Anonymous on May 22 at 5:48 PM
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finding it funny that rumors are China cancelling corn purchases?? Well after talking to someone in the know at a shipping port in the gulf... they want the product BUT even with the historically high basis nothing is moving their way to ship... hmmmm better ask USDA where all the old crop is??
Posted by Anonymous on May 22 at 5:43 PM
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Arlan, It seems I should quit farming, sell ground and machinery at highs and just sit in a air conditioned office and play the volitility of grains. Sells off buy, runs to resistance sell. Am I wrong? The sell off in July today is just plain insane at best and I really don't care about Europe. Am I wrong, just how much of our grain do we sell them anyway and how much lessor will they buy if they can't get their check book in order? Is this a buying opportunity for old corn and new beans? Obviously, no matter how tight old corn stocks are I'm going to have to get creative to get $7.00 or better for corn in the bin. In your best opinion is it time to get creative as in Texas long hedge?
Posted by Anonymous on May 22 at 2:33 PM
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So far this spring is setting up to be far less than ideal. Still have some neighbors to get corn in yet. Many others have replanted from germination issues. Conditions have gone from too wet to becoming too dry with no rain in sight for possibly the next 10 days. Can't wait for July weather. The crops may not even make it till then if they were recently planted and run out of moisture before getting roots established. Trend yields becoming less likely every day. This all sounds like doom and gloom, but right now things just don't look promising. Why on earth would you be locking in new crop prices based on USDA or any analyst that does not consider lower yields a strong possibility at this point? Scott County Eastern Iowa
Posted by Anonymous on May 21 at 12::28 AM
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8-12" tall corn suckered up like pineapple tops today. Just dug a 4 foot post hole and hit no decent moisture until 3 foot depth. Is this May or late July? At least I have no worries because USDA tells us I have my best corn crop yet coming this fall??? If I was only so optimistic. We will need much above average precip from here forward to pull of trend yield especially when USDA chooses to leave out 2011 in their calculations. Indiana
Posted by Anonymous on May 19 at 3:46 PM
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Let's see, grain prices are starting to reflect the reality that supplies are tight, speculation of this years crop are starting to dim, dry weather is covering a large area of the wheat belt and China is buying with gusto on down markets.....wonder what USDA will do this week to knock the top off again??? Just wondering.....Kansas Comment
Posted by Anonymous on May 18 at 10:13 PM
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First, to understand why money flowed out of the soybean market after such a bullish soybean report you have to track the flow of money across the commodity spectrum. We're currently seeing a flight from commodities at large due to rising economic concerns in Europe, China, and to some extent the United States. The growth in global demand for the food-based commodities changed little in the great recession of 2008 and 2009, but fund managers often paint broad strokes.
Second, the interview referred to below is good. One of the panel members in particular asked some very good questions. I would contend that some of the questions were not answered adequately, but it was a good start to the discussion.
Posted by Arlan on May 13 at 4:53 PM
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For those that are interested, Univ of Illinois Commodity Week on May 11 has an interview with Jerry Bange, WAOB in Wash, D.C. He is one of those responsible for the WASDE reports. Several tough questions were asked about the current report. At the link: http://www.agweb.com/radio.aspx Scott County Eastern Iowa farmer
Posted by Anonymous on May 12 at 10:06 PM
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I'm not a chicago trader myself, i just try to make money out of flat product trading but i wonder why the exchange is down so much while USDA presented such bullish numbers? Arlan, do you have a clear opinion about that?
Thanks
Posted by Anonymous on May 12 at 3:47 AM
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I truly believe that we could see record cash basis this summer for old-crop corn. I also believe that June 29 quarterly stocks report and planted acreage report could make for one of the more significant days of the year.
Posted by Arlan on May 11 at 10:36 AM
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By releasing funny numbers, maybe USDA is doing farmers all a favor. It definitely keeps the demand up. Meanwhile, sometime down the road, if you realize the game they are playing, you will be able to capitalize on shortfalls/corrections with higher basis levels and prices. Risk here, but then again farming is more risky than ever. Borrowing from new crop to cover old crop also does not explain how you can expand stocks next year, even if we have a bumper crop. So far the scenario is playing out just like a couple years ago with another more realistic June report coming. Heck of a way to run a business, but then when government is involved, things are illogical. BTW in our area some just started planting corn again, others still need to wait a couple more days - too many wet spots. Eastern Iowa Scott County
Posted by Anonymous on May 11 at 7:59 AM
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Arlan, What's USDA excuse for leaving exports unchanged when we just sold 140 million bu last week? Their too afraid to admit how much corn we really have therefore they have to "fudge" the numbers & keep the market from going higher. Why even have weekly export sales, the govt doesn't count them anyway.
Posted by Anonymous on May 10 at 9:31 PM
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If July goes to $5.75 the cash market has a bundle to make up. Could we really see more than a $1.00 plus basis in Indiana. We were at .35 over prior to today and obviously buyers where not getting the buschels. Oh well, at least I can sleep well now knowing I have a huge corn crop coming this fall according to USDA. For some reason I don't think I'll take it to bank just yet. Maybe the folks at USDA are just glass half full kind of people???
Posted by Anonymous on May 10 at 4:15 PM
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Cash market will always do its job, whether the futures market does or not.
Posted by Arlan on May 10 at 10:01 AM
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Another illogical government report at best. Can't we put some pressure on our great Secretary of Agriculture Tom Vilsack to make these reports more credible with less "judgements"? Cash markets should ultimately prevail, right? Scott County Eastern Iowa farmer.
Posted by Anonymous on May 10 at 8:23 AM
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Unfortunately, the market can trade illogically longer than one can stay liquid. I remain optimistic that patience will be rewarded for old-crop corn over the next 45 to 60 days, but based on my initial statement, there is risk. The cash market may have to do the job the futures market has yet to do.
Posted by Arlan on May 8 at 10:23 AM
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$6.50? Wow, your lucky...with our local basis it puts old crop corn at $5.75 I'd take it!
Posted by Anonymous on May 8 at 9:33 AM
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Arlan, what is a guy to do with old corn? Everyone says no stocks and high sales. Problem is other than a little basis run futures keep declining. I just can't believe I should sell $6.50 cash old corn. Heck, I forward sold a bunch $6.50 corn more than a year ago when we were going to have more stocks and less demand. May futures are great but my buyers moved to July a long time ago.
Posted by Anonymous on May 5 at 8:02 AM
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Mother Nature has its call again. Reason why farmers don't get excited when the trade says we are going to have a bumper crop. Planters did not roll in eastern Iowa this week and likely most of next week also. Still about 50% of corn left to plant and most of beans. Over 2" rain last night and 4" over last week. More to come this weekend. Heavy storm damage in Henry County, Wayland, Iowa. Flooding in many areas. 100% corn planted by May 10 not likely at this time! Scott County Eastern Iowa farmer.
Posted by Anonymous on May 4 at 7:03 AM
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To this point, China has been an aggressive buyer of U.S. corn as prices approach $6 for lead futures, even though the numbers for them would work to pay 50 cents to $1 more. That tells me that it is trying to get what it needs to get by, but would likely become much more aggressive if we harvest a big crop this fall that knocks prices even lower. It is also buying a bit of corn from the Black Sea region, along with feed wheat to fill its immediate needs. None of our sources in China have suggested that China would buy 40 mmt to replenish its reserves, but probably would buy enough to keep our stocks from becoming burdensome and then hope that Argentina has a big crop next year.
Posted by Arlan on May 1 at 2:46 PM
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A "specialist" from my local coop had an article this morning that said China needs 40 MMT to replenish reserves. If my numbers are accurate that is over 1.5b bushels. Oddly enough that is pretty much exactly what the feared stock number is. Is that the same kind of numbers you have been hearing for Chinese needs? How eager do you feel they will be to replenish their supply? Do they typically replenish when the price is right or do they do it come well or high water?
Posted by Anonymous on May 1 at 12::16 PM
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Even if there is a big enough crop to raise stocks and keep prices lower, who is to say that producers will let go of corn at lower prices especially considering there is a pretty good chance they will be able to sell soybeans at a nice premium and stay liquid a little longer. They may just save that extra production for a future rally if they are able to sit on it. A big crop doesn't matter if it is not made available. NESD.
Posted by Anonymous on April 28 at 10:45 AM
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Yes, China is good at making comments to impact the markets. One of the best signs that it is about to buy is when it releases a statement saying that a large crop will leave it with more than enough supplies to meet demand. As for the U.S. crop, the below scenario fits very well with the seasonal tendency for corn prices to rebound in the month of May as traders start to grasp that the growing season is far from over. The emergence rate becomes more important than the planting rate, followed by actual crop conditions.
Posted by Arlan on April 25 at 4:32 PM
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I believe our old corn crop is effectively rationed now in that the demand will exceed the supply. We are on very thin ice here. What difference will $8.00 corn make if there are no bushels to be had? Does the price have to go up to ration something that is already rationed? In other words, if the market does not care if we run out of grain, then won't the rationing be the inability to fulfill orders? This crop has been rationed as a result of traders and USDA riding a wave of misinformation and innuendos. What recourse will foreign countries have if their purchases can not be fulfilled? Wait until the big new crop comes in August? All these problems with cold weather, frost, and germination issues in Illinois will ultimately delay some areas and certainly affect yields. Sounds more like a normal or behind normal planting spring to me. Some farmers in our area waiting till after this next cold spell to plant. There will be minimal heat units for the next week. Corn, whether it is in the ground or in the bag, will be the same and another week behind. Scott County Eastern Iowa Farmer
Posted by Anonymous on April 24 at 10:31 PM
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Arlan, I realize China has been buying corn all along in various amounts,but am I wrong in thinking they are manipulating the markets by spreading rumors then backing out. I see where I think it is Sinograin (which I assume is a China market)said they would make corn purchases when the price level met their requirements. Hopefully the price meets the producers requirements as well.
Kansas Comments
Posted by Anonymous on April 24 at 8:20 PM
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The biggest fear with frost at this late stage is that the wheat heads turn up empty due to cold temps killing the pollen. A lot of times the heads will turn white, but I've seen fields that looked relatively normal turn out with no grain in the head. I still believe that we will end up seeing more damage than is now visible, but unaffected wheat is still on pace to do well. Need to get past the next scare early next week.
Posted by Arlan on April 24 at 6:41 PM
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more frost damage out their than you think look at the low parts lower it is the colder it gets
Posted by Anonymous on April 24 at 6:17 PM
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But China has been quietly buying small amounts of corn all along. It's already purchased more than 160 million bushels this year, not counting what's currently listed under "unknown destinations."
Posted by Arlan on April 24 at 8:28 AM
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I believe China is outsmarting USDA and lose more knowledge while they are sleeping then USDA has while they are awake! They slip 'rumors' out that they are going to buy, then the price of corn firms, then there is no confirmation of a buy and the price goes in the toilet. We have lost .50 cents or more a bushel in the last few weeks. When the price is right China and other countries will buy the last of the old crop and the US will be dependent on a new crop that has no guarantees of making average yields. Certainly hope this country wakes up and doesn't put us in jeopardy of limited grains.
Kansas Comments
Posted by Anonymous on April 23 at 6:38 PM
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COME DEC. 2012 CORN WILL BE TRADING ARROUND 5.00 . WITH WHEAT. AND SOYBEANS GOING 15-16. THAT IS MY OPINION BASED ON MY EXPERIENCE
Posted by Anonymous on April 18 at 7:24 PM
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I think that we'll see additional damage show up in the soft winter wheat belt as well over the next couple of weeks. The danger when freezes happen at the stage of development seen in the Midwest is sterilization, where the heads end up empty at harvest time. Still too soon to know. Wheat is a crop that can fool you, but I think we'll see more damage than is currently evident.
Posted by Arlan on April 18 at 3:33 PM
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About fifty percent of the winter wheat on our farm appears to have been killed by frost. We are going to give it a week to see if there is any re-growth. I live in NE South Dakota.
Posted by Anonymous on April 17 at 6:14 PM
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hard freeze corn will be sit back take long time to get back to where it was will hurt it
Posted by Anonymous on April 12 at 7:29 AM
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USDA's March 30 report showing tight corn stocks and its April 10 report showing larger stocks certainly create a lot more questions than answers. It's important to remember that the March 30 quarterly stocks report was produced by USDA-NASS based on survey data and statistical analysis. However, the April 10 report was produced by the USDA-WASDE division, which adds their own subjective interpretation to the data. That's what opens the door for questioning the logic of the numbers.
Posted by Arlan on April 11 at 7:02 AM
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Looks like it will be the June report again to confirm we don't have the bushels. USDA is setting us up for more government manipulation of prices and commodities just like they do in China. I was fooled a year ago and won't be fooled again. In making lemonade out of lemons, I am creating a marketing plan which will be based on false USDA data. We will see what some of the local basis prices will be this summer. I would not want to bet the farm on whether we will run out of grain. We are almost certain to now. USDA's actions have so far failed to ration demand and we have a very questionable growing season upon us. Grain in the bin will be like money in the bank but with better interest. My two cents.
Scott County Iowa farmer
Posted by Anonymous on April 10 at 8:34 PM
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One way yields are manipulated are by the figures to come up with yield produced. The government (USDA)
uses harvested acres when figuring acres instead of planted acres. When I figure the yields for our farms
I use planted acres and total bushel harvested. We are required to do that. If you check the figures of the
different statistical facts put out by agencies, they use harvested acres because it brings a higher yield.
Did you ever wonder why the yields seem so high when the grain just didn't seem to be out there in the
whole state? Check it out.
Posted by Anonymous on April 10 at 7:11 PM
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I wonder if the USDA is simply trying to say "You idiots!! Plant something else or your corn will be worth nothing!!"
Posted by Anonymous on April 10 at 1:38 PM
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I appreciate the ground-truth information from the Canadian Prairies. Many areas of the Prairies did receive temporary relief recently, but subsoil moisture is still lacking and, as you noted, some large areas totally missed out.
Posted by Arlan on April 9 at 9:48 AM
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I don't know what part of the prairies your looking at Arlin. We are still way behind in moisture and with a humidity of 23% like we experienced yesterday the moisture that we have will be gone shortly. Spring wheat acreage will be down in Canada , Canola is king this year!!!
Posted by Anonymous on April 5 at 8:29 AM
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A lot of hard red spring wheat's price outlook hinges on Canada. One-third of the Prairies are still far too dry. Canada's production could cover much of the shortfall if the weather turns favorable, but otherwise a short fall in Canada could combine with declining U.S. acres to keep energy under U.S. prices for some time. Some of that support should spill over into hard red winter wheat, but soft red winter wheat should continue to trade at a considerable discount.
By the way, it was a one-week vacation, but thanks all for the comments I received.
Posted by Arlan on April 3 at 7:03 PM
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I live in NE South Dakota. In the heart of HRSW country, but you wouldn't know it if you looked around here anymore. Do you see the lack of acres of HRSW as enough of a catalyist to really get a good rally over the next several months and is it a unique enough crop with enough demand that it could stand even more on it's own, apart from huge stocks of lesser quality wheat crops?
Posted by Anonymous on April 2 at 6:12 PM
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So very glad you are back. A 2 week vacation??? I really missed your tweets. I'm just an old farmer that would like to have some insight when the markets are making major moves. Hunted all over the internet and found no one else with your short insightful tweets for up to the moment info.
Posted by Anonymous on April 2 at 3:44 PM
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I have a different opinion than most. I am a retired organic farmer with a scientific degree in agronomy circa 1980.
the problem with the gmo corn (plural) is the hazardous effect on the environment. for one: corn that can't be killed by round up which crowds out beans or root crops. Also, BT corn that kills worms during the entire season, every season, which results in pesticide resistance in the worm population. Then BT which is a great organic pesticide will not work on the pest for the organic farmer. Crop losses or poor yields result. The corporates don't give a damn.
The quality of the corn for consumption is probably not affected, and may be better than other corn lines, I don't know about this for certain. but the breeding problem is in pest resistance and not in the nutritional side of the equation. The Euros are trying to make a point by not buying it.
the big problems I am hearing is the corporate use of lawyers to seize crops that are grown in proximity of gmo seed crops and are confiscated as a result. Disgusting practice if I ever heard of one. William
Posted by Anonymous on March 22 at 12::49 AM
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Commodity based currencies have been weak the last few days, so the grains maybe sometimes default to being just another store of value when there's limited news. On another topic, a friend from Vermont said these warm temperatures had the sap already running in the trees. They only got 25% production compared to previous recent years. Not sure about Canada but looks like we may be eating corn syrup on our pancakes.
Posted by Anonymous on March 20 at 7:42 PM
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By short term, I'm talking 20 years versus a 50-year year trend yield.
Posted by Arlan on March 16 at 7:29 AM
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My last post was on February 21, not 23. Sorry.
Scott County Iowa farmer
Posted by Anonymous on March 15 at 12::51 AM
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Glad to see the Rabobank article on yields. Confirms my comments on Feb 23. I think our yields are reaching a plateau in which it is going to get harder to exceed, just like the beans have done. Arlan you mentioned that USDA uses short term data and hence it means a higher trend yield. How short term? It would seem that a longer term would average yields and show a higher trend. The last few years have not been record yields for corn. Just wondering how they come up with the trend yield info.
Scott County Iowa farmer.
Posted by Anonymous on March 15 at 12::47 AM
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Your response is curious, since I didn't say what my response would be. I was asked what I thought the market's reaction would be and that's what I said. Many in the market still consider USDA THE authority and they respond accordingly. That's how I answered the question. The same is true with the market's reaction to USDA's crop report. If you read my commentary and listen to my audio posts regularly, you know I stand - that stocks are tighter than indicated by USDA.
Posted by Arlan on March 12 at 3:38 PM
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way to go Arlan don't give the goods cover up for them like before, all the time don't go out on your own and think for your self just be their mouth peace
Posted by Anonymous on March 9 at 10:52 PM
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A failure of USDA to support expectations could definitely dampen market enthusiasm if it occurs, but the market's reaction will also be influenced by what's happening in the outside markets as well; whether its a "risk-on" environment where money is flowing freely, or "risk-off" where investors are heading for the safety of the sidelines. Seasonally, we tend to focus more on supply and demand fundamentals this time of year, with the biggest risk factor the next few months being the Middle East.
Posted by Arlan on March 6 at 10:59 AM
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Arlan, If the USDA does not lower South America production very much and increase US export projections will the market still listen?
Posted by Anonymous on March 5 at 7:04 PM
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Export data I reported on Monday was for export shipments during the week ending February 23, as reported by USDA. Data released on Friday was for export sales for the week ending February 16. Other export data that comes out day to day is for sales reported to USDA over 100K metric tons.
Posted by Arlan on February 28 at 10:58 AM
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Arlan, how do you get the export data you reported for the week ending Feb. 23rd, when on the 24th they released the Feb. 16th exports? Is there an early reporting system other than the daily sales over 100k? Thanks!
Posted by Anonymous on February 27 at 4:28 PM
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I find it rather coincidental that our USDA overestimates what both Brazil and Argentina plan to produce this year in corn nad soybean production. The amount of reduced production estimates reported in January also just happened to be offset by an equal increase in US stocks. Fuzzy math or are the Obama quick fixers at it again?
Posted by Anonymous on February 23 at 5:29 PM
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I find it rather coincidental that our USDA overestimates what both Brazil and Argentina plan to produce this year in corn nad soybean production. The amount of reduced production estimates reported in January also just happened to be offset by an equal increase in US stocks. Fuzzy math or are the Obama quick fixers at it again?
Posted by Anonymous on February 23 at 5:28 PM
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Perhaps there's something to learn here...rather than sell when you NEED to, sell when prices are good. (and sit on the money till the payment needs to be made). If you feel the USDA and their reports drive prices down, then sell before the report. Even if you dis-agree with the reports, use them to your advantage...it's not easy to market a crop, but always look for the up side!
Posted by Anonymous on February 23 at 11:14 AM
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Just so you know, the canadian farmer does have the same perspective. We too are at the mercy of the USDA, WASDE, and everything else global (Greece for eg.) that affects the markets. Our prices and inputs, are based on the CME futures, as well. Seem fair that our prices are controlled by something that's not even in our own country? And also, that's the reason I use the farmfutures site, as well as Arlan and Bryce's commentary. The only difference between canadian marketing decisions and yours is our basis (also influenced mostly by YOUR dollar)is generally much lower. Not too sure how we're benefiting! We are all in this together, it's a global market, and global trade. Just thought it would be good to have some constructive comments about the USDA and their reports, not just name bashing. That's how we can all learn from each other!
Posted by Anonymous on February 23 at 10:53 AM
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It is obvious to US farmers that USDA manipulates data in politically expedient moments. USDA forces our crop prices down when farmers have notes to pay and inputs to buy (per KANSAS COMMENT) and then lets EPA shoot down ethanol in our automobiles at 15% to complete the demand destruction and downward price spiral. I will vote for any candidate that decreases the size and intrusion of government in agriculture, healthcare, and anything else! Everyone was so anxious to stop farmer subsidies and now they have done it. So all the farm program money is once again a shell game going to fund school lunches and none to farmers. So be it. Let USDA end sooner rather than later. The only harm that will occur is to our trading partners who keep getting the USDA discount on corn and exported ethanol. The Canadian farmer doesn't have the same perspective because he benefits while we lose when USDA plays Russisn roulette with our grain markets. Let them draw pictures of vegetables on plates instead of pyramids if it gives them a sense of purpose but USDA is a disaster in market manipulation.
Posted by Anonymous on February 23 at 9:44 AM
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To the Canadian farmer, you are right the USDA is powerful and influential, which is the reason they need to be more efficient. When it is time for US farmers to pay operating notes and other financial obligations and we need to sell crops to meet those needs, the last thing we need is an agency putting out incorrect reports that knock the prices down, only to come back a few weeks or months later to make corrections. Whether anyone believes it or not, there is manipulation of the markets in this country and in the end producers usually are the ones that take the hit. And yes the prices today are good prices, however the overhead is higher than it has ever been, so the profit margin is just as narrow as it has been in the past. Farmers are a unique group of individuals and the backbone of the world, good luck to all of us......KANSAS COMMENT
Posted by Anonymous on February 23 at 7:44 AM
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I do not work for the USDA, I am actually a canadian farmer...just want to throw out my 2 cents! There seems to be a lot of critisism towards the USDA and their reports. I have noticed several comments from people over the past few months, wishing/wanting the USDA dis-banded. How do you think that would effect the markets?? It would be disasterous. As Arlan and Bryce both say, fear trumps fundemantals. The unknown of "what would happen next", should the largest, gloabally known, agricultural reporting system dis-appear, or just be "re-named", or "change reporting methods", would result in prices being driven down so far through the floor you'd have to dig for them. Weather you agree or dis-agree with the USDA, they are powerful, influential, and must be respected, just like everything else in your country. And at the close today...$6.38 corn, $12.72 beans, $6.44 wheat. Wow. If you can't make money at that, quit farming. Best of luck to farmers all across the continent for a good successful growing season in 2012!
Posted by Anonymous on February 22 at 5:22 PM
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Ditto to another report. Assuming acres is one thing, but yields? Putting out yield projections this early is like blowing in the wind. Way too many things can impact yields, most of all weather. Just as well be wagering in Vegas against house odds. If corn acres in fact increase (figuring more marginal acres), would not the odds of trendline yields go down? Reminds me of probabilities in statistics class. I think we have to eventually see a lowering of trend yields due mainly to weather volatility, insects, and diseases, just to name a few. Has anyone looked at this lately? I also believe a big reason the markets are so volatile is because there are way too many assumptions. USDA lets deal with more facts and less predictions and have a more stable price in return. That means reports that deal with acres from FSA in August and yields from insurance reports in December. Let the analysts do the assuming. Scott County Iowa farmer
Posted by Anonymous on February 21 at 10:41 PM
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Right on to the farmer from Kansas
Posted by Anonymous on February 21 at 9:10 PM
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Arlen, notice how everyone is complaining about gas prices? As soon as the blenders credit expired, up goes the price. What a coincedient. Now everybody wants to use more domestict oil. Good thing we got rid of the blenders credit, it's really saving the taxpayers a lot of money that they can now spend on high gas prices. Why are'nt we using more ethanol? It's more than .80 cents a gallon cheaper than unleaded and we have a lot of it. Glad my pickup is flex fuel.
Posted by Anonymous on February 21 at 8:58 PM
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ATTENTION USDA-Mart shoppers....prices were rolled back again today so stock up your bins foreign countries at American farmers expense....if prices aren't cheap enough today, wait until USDA's Outlook Forum later this week.
KANSAS COMMENT
Posted by Anonymous on February 21 at 8:32 PM
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Arlen, I can hardly wait for the USDA to come out with their outlook this week. Their gonna tell us how many acres will be planted & the yield were gonna get. How many times have these buffones ben right in the last 10 years on yield? ZERO. And we should believe them now? They just throw out numbers to manipulate the market.
Posted by Anonymous on February 21 at 7:20 PM
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Rumor that China bought nearly 130 million bushels of soft red and hard red winter wheat evaporated like many of them do. That doesn't mean that it won't/didn't happen, but for now little hard evidence exists that it did. There was plenty of activity in the option pits Friday that mirrored what you might see if the commercials were covering a major deal, but the activity just as easily could have been speculative in nature related to the rumor. One thing was for sure. They were not buying today.
Posted by Arlan on February 21 at 3:40 PM
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So, I'm dying to know what happened to the Chinese rumor from Friday.
Posted by Anonymous on February 21 at 2:55 PM
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Who the hell is Kevin Van Trump....a USDA employee? If all producers would get together and hold tight to their grain, maybe we could turn this downward drift around......
Posted by Anonymous on February 15 at 7:47 PM
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Arlin I thought you would like to know that Kevin van Trump in his report doesn't think your friend in Brazil is credable. I happen to believe your source. I thought you would like to know Ernie
Posted by Anonymous on February 15 at 2:44 PM
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Somebody must have put the word out that there was another country needing to purchase some grain. Down a few cents again today when everything points to an up market. kansascommenter...no longer anoymous...!
Posted by Anonymous on February 14 at 6:41 PM
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Never mind.
Posted by Anonymous on February 13 at 2:37 PM
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How many posters on this site are Anonymous? Is Anonymous praising his own posts. Arlen, you shouldn't let anonymous posters hijack your site.
Posted by Anonymous on February 13 at 2:36 PM
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amen to the last post. spot on!
Posted by Anonymous on February 10 at 9:01 AM
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Lets see....Algeria closed a "huge tender" for wheat, South Korea booked 8.1 million bushels.....what is the USDA looking out for them now and making sure the price goes down when they are ready to purchase. Seems to be the trend the whole year on all the grains. The sooner we get rid of this administration and his cabinet the better off this country will be.
Posted by Anonymous on February 9 at 9:08 PM
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Sack Vilsack. The USDA has deteriorated under his "leadership." The buck stops at his desk. The Comedy of Errors.
Posted by Anonymous on February 8 at 10:03 PM
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Most of my neighbors and I fortunatly, (or unfortunatly) ended up having most of our corn sold well before last fall's harvest. The bushels just weren't there. When a local elevator called me 2 weeks ago wondering if i had any corn in the bin to move( someone needing some i guess? )I told him nope, the bins are swept. When i told him he should call USDA, apparently they know where its all at, he chuckeled and said, "yeah that's going to be a problem" . Just a thought?
Posted by Anonymous on February 7 at 9:53 PM
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Arlan, you are on the right path in your thinking. The USDA, is of course wrong. Where we usually have grain piles after harvest we have none and I'm in one of those production areas where USDA said we raised bushels close to last year. Simple fact is, if we raised near production (which we didn't) it already got gobbled up by ethonal plants or railed out for use. Our basis has of course nearly tripled in the last few weeks as the end users are realizing the fact "uh... where is it at?" Farmers do finally have more working capital and can do business like the rest of the free market has for years but it is still not out there. I'm sure by this time next year USDA will finally tell the moronic traders "gee, I guess we miscalculated". Of course by that time even the strong fisted farmer had enough and sold it for 6.50 cash. After all if we don't some outside influence will hand us our head. Arlan this is your chance to stay the path and say it like it is. We farmers know what we have to do until the truth finally comes out. Play the game and watch our hindside.
Posted by Anonymous on January 31 at 9:12 PM
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Arlan, good call on your recent projections of Argentina lowering their production. Now how can we get the Argentina guys to project and calculate the US production instead of USDA.
Posted by Anonymous on January 23 at 6:51 PM
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After seeing the Argentina satellite images I correct myself from previous post. The crop tour guy better walk in more than a few rows to get rid of his morning coffee or he will still be seen.
Posted by Anonymous on January 20 at 1:53 PM
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There's a great deal of truth to what you say.
Posted by Arlan on January 20 at 1:27 PM
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I know a commodity trader that has said for years we should be looking at satellite images. We have the technology why wouldn't we use it as a guide. It is alot more accurate than a drive by or a John Deere crop tour guy walking in a few rows to relieve himself of his morning coffee.
Posted by Anonymous on January 19 at 1:45 PM
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Be sure to follow the link I will use in this afternoon's commentary to satellite images of Argentina's grain belt compared to the same period in the devastating drought in the 2008-09 growing season. Those images suggest that this year's drought is worse, which a local from Argentina has told me as well. Argentina lost 30% of its soybeans and 43% of its corn that year. Those getting Farm Futures Daily, our e-newsletter, will also see a graphic of the region's vegetative health versus the previous year.
Posted by Arlan on January 19 at 11:55 AM
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I came across some interesting data released by FSA. According to them there were only 87.25 million acres of corn planted in 2011 with 3.01 million acres in prevent plant. soybean acres came in at 73.65 acres with 1.45 million in prevent plant. With wheat there was approx 4.5 million in prevent plant. How come these acres are so different from USDA. Please don't tell me they are both right. How can you trust one source and chose to ignore the other. These figures were released just the other day. That's a huge difference.
Posted by Anonymous on January 18 at 5:43 PM
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I often hear analyst saying the crop has time to recover. They just repeat what USDA always says because it must be bible. Analyst also continually readjust their numbers after another bogus USDA report. This is the point, analyst need to quite listening to USDA. They need to stay with their own numbers and listen to producers about the crop. Then when it finally comes out maybe the uninformed traders will stop listening to USDA also and pay more attention to analyst that stayed the path and were ultimately right. I don't know how bad parts of South America really are because I have not taken a tour. Nor do I even know what a bumper crop in South America would look like. I do know what one looks like here though and often when the analyst are telling me there is time for our crop to recover I have already personally made Anheuser Busch stock go up. Not just because I'm a lush but with 25 years hands on experience I know what the crop can and cannot come out of.
Posted by Anonymous on January 18 at 2:29 PM
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yes soybean losses can recover to a point once stress has occured, but they will never recover to its original potential. The best analogy I can give you is this. We had a hail insurance claim and the adjuster claimed that they would recover after the leaves had been stripped off. I agreed to a point but said that if I was to take his hand and cut of a finger he could probably function without one finger but he would never function as before. The same occures with plants. Once stress has occured your yield potential declines even with normal weather. It only works if your the USDA or a analyst or an expert. You know what an expert is. 1 an X is a has been, and 2 a spert is a drip under pressure. Needless to say we came to an agreement
Posted by Anonymous on January 17 at 9:49 PM
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I think the last comment hits the nail square on the head. We listen to trade analyst daily to help guide our marketing decisions and farming business in general. It gets to the point that we are not able to believe either the USDA or the analyst (this puts you in that category). I have always liked and enjoyed listening to you and reading your commentaries, however now it appears neither you or the USDA can be trusted. I say this only to encourage you and other analyst to challenge these completely manipulative USDA reports. I have no doubt there is some insider trading occurring which is the reason for the bear reports when prices start to climb. My advice....man up and challenge this agency.
Posted by Anonymous on January 17 at 9:46 PM
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Arlan, I think the point most producers are trying to make here is the fact that USDA numbers are always contradictory to whatever analyst we prefer. We prefer certain analyst because their logic and rationale seem well thought out and alot of times has history to back it up. USDA has no rationale, logic or history. Any farmer that has farmed several years has been used to making lemonade out of lemons numerous times. Likely several times a year. It is in our nature. It is also in our nature to call bu!!shi! when we see it. Must be that thing of not having a boss or company telling us to knock it off or else. That's our trade off for not having benefits or security.
We need those same logical, well thought out, rational people that we listen to about markets to challange USDA numbers. If not this crap will never end.
Posted by Anonymous on January 17 at 8:14 PM
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Really wondering why everyone(including Arlan)is so affraid of calling the usda out on thier lies not errors? For the last 3 quarters all the livestock in this country must be ording thier meals from weight watchers, because we have vitually feed no corn or wheat, yet cattle numbers are up? Go to cnbc.com and search video on corn,usda report. A couple of days before the report Rick santelli interviewed John Mcintosh from Rand Finacial Services. He explains in detail how wrong the USDA reports have been for quite some time. The usda is wrong and one day it will all come to light, who will be blamed? The obama administaion is directly behind these BS numbers( ie Still havent accounted for the 6.2 million acres of prevent plant in ND alone)? why any producer would ever vote for that fool again is beyond me???
Posted by Anonymous on January 16 at 2:00 PM
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It's true that our data indicated that corn stocks are much tighter than what USDA reported on January 12, due to a smaller crop and stronger demand. USDA's math produced a different result. The same was true for wheat feeding data as well. Our methodology has proven effective over the long haul. However, many of our other estimates were actually pretty close to USDA's numbers, especially for soybeans. When it comes to South American weather there is a difference between rainfall over the past month as a percent of normal and the percent of a crop currently under stress after a rain system has passed through. That doesn't mean that damage is reversed, but a rain does temporarily relieve stress. I get information from Argentina and Brazil on nearly a daily basis, from both producers and grain brokers. But I also have to filter through that information. All of us have a tendency to see the rest of the world just as it is in our own back yard. Corn losses are likely substantial, but late and second crop corn can partially offset the losses if the weather pattern improves in time, especially in Brazil. Soybean losses have occurred as well, but soybeans are the most responsive to late season rains if they occur. That's why weather over the next few weeks is most critical. I've been much more aggressive with my comments about South America's production in my Twitter comments at https://twitter.com/#!/ArlanFF101.
Posted by Arlan on January 16 at 10:36 AM
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I greatly appreciate the dialogue. We also appreciate the loyalty of our readers who filled out producer surveys, indicating that the 2011 corn yields were lower, confirming past historical tendencies as well. Yes, our data, as well as the data of many others, suggests that corn usage is higher and stocks are lower than what is currently reported by USDA. However, this is not a closed system where one can easily prove the case, until stocks either run up and prices explode higher, or we suddenly find where all the bushels are at and the market collapses. As such, we must respect the chance that USDA is right. Unfortunately, the typical farmer can only hold his grain for so long before he must sell, either for cash flow reasons or to make room for the next crop. Meanwhile, many young money managers take USDA's word as gospel. With all of this in mind, we must take the information handed to us and create a marketing plan that makes the best of what we have. We must channel the emotions created by USDA's reports in a way that allows us to make lemonade out of lemons rather than causing us to make emotional decisions that end up hurting us even more.
Posted by Arlan on January 16 at 10:19 AM
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Good previous post. Why are acres still being adjusted when we are forced to certify in June exactly what we planted. I can understand weather distroying some of those acres afterwards but usually the acres somehow get increased in later reports. We have another year of high temp nights but somehow the yield increases from the previous report. Many of us report yields to government subsidied crop insurance. Wouldn't that be more accurate than what they are doing. I refuse to fill out the USDA surveys because they simply cannot be trusted to compile the info correctly and as I said they already have the information in a better format anyway. This crap has to change and all our farm groups and associations need to put this priority one.
Posted by Anonymous on January 14 at 5:08 PM
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It just bothers me that everyone, even the traders, have access to some of the same information that USDA has (even more up to date) and USDA is continually surprising everyone? Something doesn't smell right here. Everyone but apparently the USDA knew we had low test weight corn a couple years ago and USDA did not confirm it until June report, right? Go figure. By then most farmers had sold most of their grain for cash flow or listened to too many negative reports to be sold on the market going the wrong way. I know, that is why there are options and futures that cost us more money to protect us from government reports. If they can not provide more accurate information, then of what value is it? I know adjustments have to be made, but lets start getting it right more often. Can everyone be wrong here but the USDA? Talk to crop adjusters, they have boots on the ground.
If we can assume that there is some underlying reason for what they do, then what about a theory that they are trying to keep prices low through February for the crop insurance subsidies?
Scott County Iowa
Posted by Anonymous on January 13 at 7:56 PM
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I know I'm ready for November. I realize USDA is lousy no matter who resides at the White House but with all the other rank doings they seem even more suspect right now. Hopefully the President's supporters are busy election day doing other things and forget to get on the Accorn bus to vote. Like occupying somewhere defecating in zip-lock bags. Or marching for gay marriage dressed like the opposite sex. Or at a ribbon cutting ceremony for a new facility displaying the latest interpretive arts. Or,, well you get my point. See Arlan, thats how you say what is on your mind. You know you want to.
Posted by Anonymous on January 13 at 4:42 PM
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Perhaps the USDA is showing us the correct numbers now, and they were wrong last year. Maybe ending stocks and carry-over were never as tight as they said, and they've slowly been correcting that over these last several reports. If that is the case, at least it's been done in small incriments, and not one large increase shown in one report. Lets also not forget the stocks-to-use ratio is still the tightest it's been in years as Arlan has stated in his report yesterday. Fundementally, and long term it's still a bull market. There just might be some hiccups along the way. Thanks to everyone at farmfutures for their hard work, and excellent reports for everything ag-related. Cheers!
Posted by Anonymous on January 13 at 3:25 PM
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Really wondering why everyone(including Arlan)is so affraid of calling the usda out on thier lies not errors? For the last 3 quarters all the livestock in this country must be ording thier meals from weight watchers, because we have vitually feed no corn or wheat, yet cattle numbers are up? Go to cnbc.com and search video on corn,usda report. A couple of days before the report Rick santelli interviewed John Mcintosh from Rand Finacial Services. He explains in detail how wrong the USDA reports have been for quite some time. The usda is wrong and one day it will all come to light, who will be blamed? The obama administaion is directly behind these BS numbers( ie Still havent accounted for the 6.2 million acres of prevent plant in ND alone)? why any producer would ever vote for that fool again is beyond me???
Posted by Anonymous on January 13 at 3:11 PM
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Arlin I have a question. You are saying that in Argentina you are concerned about stress in 25% of the corn and soybean belt in Argentina. The national weather service says that Argentina has recieved from 33% - 50% of normal rainfall with above normal temps. Who is right and why the difference? Ernie
Posted by Anonymous on January 13 at 8:36 AM
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The USDA report badly damaged the market's emotions. The report only accounted for half the Argentine corn damage and none of the Brazil damage - USDA will mea culpa their "error" in future reports. Thanks alot, USDA. Once again, handing a big present to China and a big lump of coal to the tax-paying farmers of America. How much money did producers lose on this report? Where is the oversight for accuracy? Is it November yet? Remind me once again WHY we need the USDA Reports manipulating of our ag markets??? Oh, and let's not forget CME who can hardly wait to expand trading limits increasing risk for all, and yet cannot stand behind MF Global even after CME's own shoddy job of regulating segregated client accounts. Let's hear it for MF USDA and the CME.
Posted by Anonymous on January 13 at 5:18 AM
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come on Arlin your comments about Argentinas lack of moisture are misleading. If you do research most of Argentina has recieved 33% of normal rainfall in the past 30 days combine that with above normal temps and you have a disaster. Argentine newspapers are reporting this drought as bad as 2008. That's the year they cut of exports
Posted by Anonymous on January 12 at 2:54 PM
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write what you think, not what you are told to write, think you really would do a lot better job.
Posted by Anonymous on January 5 at 4:57 PM
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Apologize for the error. I was referring to the gains from late last year. Good catch.
Posted by Arlan on January 5 at 2:54 PM
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You wrote:
"March corn gained 27-cents this week and is 30 ½-cents higher than a year ago. "
12/31/10 H was $6.29
12/31/2011 H was $6.46 1/2.
Where is the 30 1/2 cents higher at?
Roger Wright
rwrighT@main-net.com
937 605 1061 cell
Posted by Anonymous on January 3 at 4:06 AM
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You reference USDA's estimates a lot in your commentaries and understandably so, however how can you base your comments on anything that comes out of USDA's mouth as many times as they are wrong. I along with a lot of other farmers based a lot of our decisions on the information they put out early in 2011 only to have them come back this fall and make corrections. Corrections that cost us lots of dollars. Is it time for this defunct agency to have an overhaul or is it just this administrations way of insuring a cheap food policy?
Posted by Anonymous on December 15 at 10:36 PM
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Who can discount the damage that USDQA does each report manipulating the markets and pulling down prices with clearly erroneous assumptions? Now the producers should wait until January 12th when liar's poker has to show their hand - that is unless they continue to create corn stocks that don't exist by discounting corn sweetner, etc. etc. We would be better off if the USDA was terminated instead of the Post Office.
Posted by Anonymous on December 12 at 7:34 AM
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I've mentioned the tight available stocks at length in recent weeks. However, the trade perceives that the world is awash with corn. USDA hasn't helped, and there are a lot of new young traders in the business that have bought the perception. U.S. export demand has dropped dramatically, but that is already factored in. I believe domestic demand is stronger than currently perceived. If so, we should see a bullish stocks report January 12, along with a possible reduction in crop size one more time. Hopefully, that will be enough to move grain traders past the worries of European debt. That is their number one concern at this point.
Posted by Anonymous on December 5 at 3:54 PM
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During the last few weeks very little mention has been made about the tight supplies. When will this become a factor in the price. What are we missing or has demand really slipped back that much?
Posted by Anonymous on December 1 at 10:43 PM
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The reason for poor export sales I believe is that the commercials simply don't have the corn or beans to sell , hence the strong basis. But nobody wants to admit it. In Canada the elevators are running at 60 % capacity and were sold out of wheat anonymous
Posted by Anonymous on November 23 at 2:46 PM
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Why isn't somebody in jail from MF global?
Posted by Anonymous on November 23 at 10:11 AM
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A'm I the only one that get's tired of nations that can't balance their check book? The U.S. is right there with them but WTH. If we have learned anything, stimulous is not the answer. Default and be damned and maybe someday everything will be right.
Posted by Anonymous on November 8 at 4:58 PM
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Any increased demand puts a squeeze on the corn balance sheet, as well as for soybeans. Occasionally a statistical abberation will arise when dealing with numbers this large, which may be the case here. It's difficult to defend USDA's demand estimates for each category, particularly after the sharp price break of September.
Posted by Arlan on October 25 at 2:48 PM
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Arlan, what is your take on the USDA's Industrial Use projections for corn? A trendline of nonfeed use puts it at 184, with high confidence, but the USDA has it relatively unchanged from last year at 162. What is the reasoning behind the lack of growth for 2011/12? Couldn't even a slight increase in this use dramatically squeez the market?
Posted by Anonymous on October 24 at 6:57 PM
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I get my weekly export sales data from my Dow Jones Newswires feed. The USDA site mentioned is the agency's official spot for export sales data, but the DJ feed tends to be quicker for me.
As for the comments on China's population happy, I agree. There is actually a great deal of land that is either not being utilized or its being under-utilized in Eastern Europe, the Former Soviet Union and in Brazil, but prices have to stay high enough for a long enough period of time to stimulate the needed resource investment to bring that land into production. That process has started, but we still have not seen enough additional production to bring global supply and demand into balance.
Posted by Arlan on October 19 at 4:30 PM
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The gobal need for better food will grow. With the population at
7 billion and growing the taste for better food will grow with it.
The goverment will have to keep there population happy or there will be up rising and they can not have that. The land the world has for
production will not keep up at the rate we need for food.
Illinois famer
Posted by Anonymous on October 19 at 1:06 PM
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Arlan, where are you finding the weekly export data. When I check the USDA website @ http://www.fas.usda.gov/export-sales/esrd1.html it only shows through October 6th. It says the next report won't be released until the 20th. Can you please share your data source?
Thanks!
Posted by Anonymous on October 18 at 3:25 PM
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W Central IA - 3 fields - normally 210 bpa - this year 180-185 bpa. Due to tip-back pollination issues, Goss, rootworm, and stalk rot. Genetics did not hold up and corn lodged badly. Corn all over the ground. Believe that VT3 genetics can't keep up w resistance. See Andy Gass's report from ISU re rootworm and VT3. Believe it's true. Will take a second protein to keep corn-on-corn acres vertical and not horizontal. USDA lied about yield and now they lie about demand.
Posted by Anonymous on October 16 at 2:21 PM
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I Like This Information... dear
http://www.onlineduniya.com/
Posted by Anonymous on October 13 at 2:23 AM
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Is there any reason that every time the farmer starts to see a crop prices that are keeping up with expenses that the USDA comes up with some negative news to knock the prices out from under us?
Posted by Anonymous on October 3 at 6:27 PM
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Why are we selling tons of wheat to China when the harvest has been so poor? I am not willing to pay $4 for a loaf of bread while Chinese Aristocrats eat free (because you know they aren't going to feed the people). Chinese people starve and we pay! Just so someone can make a buck. WTH?
Posted by Anonymous on September 27 at 4:32 PM
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That's the job of the marketplace, to find a price that will sufficiently slow demand to balance it with a smaller supply. However, it's very possible that the market will do that job before Black Sea supplies dry up. Frequently supplies end up larger at the end of the year than expected because the market does too good of a job of slowing demand. At this point, I still see substantial evidence that we're on the front end of the curve.
Posted by Arlan on September 16 at 11:45 AM
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Had a chance to listen to you speak today at Husker Harvest Days, very informative, thank you. I do have a question for you. Do you think once the black sea region runs out of feed wheat the resulting price jump that it will take to replace that need with corn will have detrimental effect on demand/price on corn?
Posted by Anonymous on September 14 at 9:22 PM
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Twitter icon is back. Thanks for your follow and for bringing it to our attention. Keep the comments coming.
Posted by Arlan on September 13 at 12::45 PM
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What has happened to your tweets? Aren't receiving them anymore.
Posted by Anonymous on September 9 at 9:17 AM
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what happened to your tweet icon? now I have to log into twitter to follow you - bring it back ;)
Posted by Anonymous on September 8 at 12::33 PM
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what happened to your tweet icon? now I have to log into twitter to follow you - bring it back ;)
Posted by Anonymous on September 8 at 10:24 AM
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The corn crops here in SW KS are in poor shape as well. Most have chopped the corn for silage and a lot of it that is left pollinated during 110 degree temperatures. Reports of ears with 10 or 15 kernels per ear are the norm. Will be interesting to see if USDA will have a clue that the bpa will be way down this year.
Posted by Anonymous on September 6 at 9:17 PM
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i just finished harvesting 1550 acres of corn here in eastern okla. it yielded less than 20000 bu, you do the math.
Posted by ffarms on August 27 at 5:46 PM
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Have you guys heard? We've got some real bin busting corn yields in SE Kansas, SW Missouri; 4 to 54. Aflotoxin so high in some, guys are being told to bury it. This is not just a localized area either. It is wide-spread. Last years yields were 145 to 199.
Posted by REBELAG on August 18 at 9:56 PM
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You raise an excellent point. There is some good corn this year, but many producers are finding that it's not as good when you walk into the field and pull back the husks as it looks from the road. Now is the time to find out if the corn in your field is as good as you think it is by walking some fields and pulling some samples. It may impact your marketing decisions over the next few weeks and months.
Posted by Arlan on August 5 at 5:11 PM
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I pulled corn ears from 5 different fields. Three out of five ears showed up to 2 inches of tip back - aborted kernals. Farmers here say
that 15% of a fantastic yield is gone. All around us fields are either flooded or drought-stricken. Our fields in west central IA looked good until the excessive heat the last 2 weeks. We move back from typical 220 bpa to 180-185 bpa. Wonder if even the best fields will get 200 bpa this year? Kernal filling needs good weather - no excessive heat now or could get worse.
Posted by iowafarm on August 5 at 8:40 AM
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Illinois only has 12% excellent - WOW and Indiana only 10%! Iowa is the best at 28% excellent. Hard to believe it is that bad but between the floods, the high overnight temps, and the two windstorms that knocked down so many acres, I guess that is right..............
Posted by iowafarm on July 25 at 3:20 PM
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Iowa Corn is only 28% excellent! Shouldn't prices respond to this? NE is only 22% excellent and Texas 24%. I think we have some problems out there, debt ceiling debate or not!
Posted by iowafarm on July 25 at 3:17 PM
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thanks arlan, read your comments every day. dave wiebke
Posted by bustinit on July 21 at 5:22 PM
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USDA has shock agriculture once again with there report on crop production out look. We in the agriculture world knows that many things goes in production of a big crop. The big problem is the trader has taken a beating today and they drive the market. How long will they stay in there and take these losts, is this what the USDA wants.This should keep cheap food and that is there gold. Ilfarmer
Posted by W. Entwistle on June 30 at 9:35 PM
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West Central Iowa had severe storms last evening and many fields are filled with corn that is lodged, snapped, and shredded. Wonder if that even will be considered by USDA? My guess is no.
Posted by iowafarm on June 27 at 11:34 PM
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Snowing in Iowa on April 19. Tough to plant corn. Hopefully the belt will get a break by the end of next week.
Posted by Arlan on April 19 at 1:09 PM
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Arlan,
Going to leave the planter in the shed today. Cold!!!! Potential hard rain here(Alexis, Illinois). 15% of corn planted. Hope it comes up.
Don Edwards
Posted by d. edwards on April 14 at 8:22 AM
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Arlan,
Always enjoy reading your analysis of the markets. I also enjoy following you on twitter.
Thanks,
Matt
Posted by M. Karls on March 10 at 3:28 PM
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Land prices have increase 30 percent in the last six months. partly because of the price increase in commodity, and maybe because the available land is disappearing at a alarming rate to urban sprawl, and highways,factories,and the big boxes we see along our highways. There will be a shortages of food and fiber because some where in the world there will be floods and other places there will be dry areas with poor production that will cause food to be in short supply. Ilfarmer
Posted by Bill on December 8 at 9:49 PM
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I have to agree that the July 2012 contract certainly doesn't do a lot to ensure adequate acreage for 2011. That demonstrates how much the nearby contracts are currently being propped up by outside money flow into the market, which tends to focus on the lead contract and the December contracts. However, even the new-crop soybean/corn ratio is only trading at 2.23 to 1 at this point, hardly an endorsement for buying corn acres in the spring. I anticipate that we'll see more emphasis on 2011 acres once we get past harvest, but this is also one reason why I expect the greatest fundamental support for prices in February and March as the need to acquire acres becomes more apparent.
Posted by Arlan on October 5 at 3:04 PM
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I'm glad our comments have been of assistance. We appreciate the feedback.
Delta for the purpose of our comments generally refers to the grain belt stretching either side of the Lower Mississippi River region. Others vary the extent of their definition somewhat to fit their purpose.
As for foreign commodity quotes, I really haven't found a source that I really like. Pick what you like from a Google list.
Posted by Arlan on October 5 at 3:00 PM
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Does anyone else ever notice how the USDA always steps in to thwart crop prices when they start to get profitable for the producers. I wonder if China maybe had something to do with this.....since they own us.
Posted by S. Morgan on October 4 at 6:22 AM
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Please explain with the low corn to stocks usage ratio why July 2012 corn is trading at discount to July 2011 corn? Hardly a raging endorsement to incentivize additional acres considering declining U.S. corn supplies. Doesn’t make sense!
Posted by D. Allem on September 30 at 2:55 AM
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