Acreage Battle Could Spur Corn Rally, Beans to Follow
Video discussion looks at implications of latest Farm Futures survey.
Bryce Knorr
Published: Mar 17, 2009
The reluctance of farmers to plant corn in 2009 due to high costs and uncertain prices should spur a rally to buy acres this spring, according to the Farm Futures marketing team.
Senior Editor Bryce Knorr and Market Analyst Arlan Suderman discussed implications of the magazine's planting intentions survey in a special online program, The Bear Pit, which is viewable anytime on FarmFutures.com.
The survey found corn acreage could fall 4% in 2009, while soybean ground soars more than 6% to a new all-time record. But those numbers aren't likely to stand through the spring as the market tries to convince farmers to plant more corn.
While both Knorr and Suderman are optimistic about prices long-term, they said rallies this spring in corn could be muted by relatively large old crop stocks. Ultimately, forecasting models and price charts have plenty of upside, perhaps to $5 or better, said Knorr.
Old crop soybeans should lead the soy complex, according to Suderman, who noted a tendency for USDA to underestimate exports. That could cut Sept. 1 supplies even further, he said.
Wheat prices mostly depend on weather, both in the U.S. and around the world, said Suderman, who noted recent rains missed hey hard red winter wheat areas.
Knorr and Suderman covered a wide variety of questions farmers have this spring in the 30-minute video program, ranging from the outlook for fertilizer, diesel and propane prices to the new ACRE farm program and the impact of outside markets and traders on crop prices.
Check out the video at The Buzz
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Tagged: farm, wheat, farmfutures, farmfutures.com, usda
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