2009 Hurricane Season Updated
WSI's tropical forecast calls for less active season than last year.
Compiled by staff
Published: Apr 20, 2009
On Monday WSI Corporation updated its 2009 hurricane season forecast, predicting 11 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes.
Due to a continuation of relatively cool tropical Atlantic Ocean temperatures and a waning of the recent La Nina event these forecast numbers are lower than those from the WSI forecast issued in December (13 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 intense hurricanes). The 2009 forecast numbers are quite close to the long-term (1950-2008) average of 9.8 named storms, 6.0 hurricanes, and 2.5 intense hurricanes.
"Ocean temperatures in the tropical Atlantic are cooler, relative to normal, than at any time since 1994," said WSI seasonal forecaster Dr. Todd Crawford. "Further, the recent La Nina event has now ended, and we expect normal or even slightly above-normal wind shear in the tropical Atlantic this season. Neither the cooler tropical Atlantic nor the neutral wind shear conditions are enabling for tropical activity this year. We have reduced our forecast numbers to adapt to the latest information, and future changes to our forecast are more likely to be towards smaller numbers than larger numbers." The next full seasonal forecast package, which will include forecasts for summer temperatures in both the US and Europe, will be issued on May 27. The next update on the 2009 hurricane season will be issued on May 26.
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