All the talk of rain.I prevent plant corn because of no water in canal.I live in Colorado.
Anonymous on 6/18/2013 9:17:00 AM
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Crops are in good shape? Really, 64% are good to excellent? Wow, where have I been?
Anonymous on 6/18/2013 8:09:00 AM
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Rented, low lying and small inefficient fields were abandoned in much of Midwest. Was foriegn corn pushing the price too low so there is no incentive to risk planting muddy fields at 50 degree temperatures? More rain and more ponding on flat fields as of June 16th. Early corn is only 6 inches and a lot of it looks yellow in our county.
Anonymous on 6/17/2013 2:03:00 PM
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What happened to the Idle10 movement? I never believed that farmers would buy or rent land,then use only 90 percent of it. Insurance payments are available to acres too wet or too late. Some guys apparently will still plant something if they can.We're lemmings looking for a cliff.
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Anonymous on 6/16/2013 3:30:00 PM
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To the 10:10 comment, you said we have had good prices due to too many end users, bad weather and crop ins. Who should we cut out then as an end user? China? Ethanol? Livestock? Are you gonna change the weather so it's perfect all over? Try going to the bank or where ever to get a loan to put your crop in and then tell them your not gonna take any crop ins. They won't even borrow you the money. Spend hundreds of dollars per acre with no ins and what happens when a disaster happens? Your SOL. Do you have ins on your house or vehicle? Do you have health ins? Or how about life ins? If you do, why do you? According to you we don't need crop ins, or for that fact any type of ins. What a preposterous statement. Why do they even offer crop ins then? Farmers produce the most valuable thing on earth. Food. Without us there's NOTHING. The next time your in the grocery store remember where all the food came from. Wise up.
Anonymous on 6/15/2013 2:38:00 PM
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To the 10:10 comment. I had college professor tell me many times that if nothing makes sense. Then follow the money. He never spoke any truer words than those. From what I see. There is going to be a short crop. What happened last year. Prices were real good at harvest. The pipeline filled then prices fell. Now that the pipeline is drained the price comes back up on the board and to get the hold outs, basis is closing in on record highs. Well there will be new record highs on the CBOT this time around. But maybe not. There maybe a lot of that cheap South American grain already bought coming to a market near you. Never mine the rust spores on those beans.
Anonymous on 6/15/2013 10:29:00 AM
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To the 8:12 comment. I said " that the barges are coming up the river loaded. They were hauling grain from S.America". That is after it has been off loaded at the port of New Orleans. South American grain price is based on the CBOT. Only makes sense to keep the market low to pay for all the costs of importing. As for basis that is like than award to those that held the grain.
I hate to say this the market is doing its job at keeping the farmer down at any spot in the world. The biggest reason we have had good prices is there are to many end users and thanks to bad weather and crop insurance. We all had a few good years. The buyers have proven they can pay a good price for grain and no one went without. China payed record prices and it didn't slow them down until they filled there orders. Then the price fell off. Beans on the dock in China are still $21.00 a bushel just to feed to pigs. Well the boys in Washington have a new farm bill that is about worthless and crop insurance looks to be headed that way too. So you producers out thete may want to think about not enrolling in the new farm bill package when the time comes. Way to much paperwork and penalties if the paperwork isn't right. The plus side to that is that everyone doesn't know your business. Crop insurance is based on market price and APH. If either of those things get to low. Well save your money. Put $4.00 corn and a drought lowered APH and work through it. Use your own numbers. ARE YOU GOING TO COVER EXPENSES? Fun times ahead.
Anonymous on 6/15/2013 10:10:00 AM
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If there's so much grain on the barges, why is the basis still so strong for both corn and beans? 1.25 over for beans and .30 to .80 over for corn? Basis should be getting wider NOT narrower.
Anonymous on 6/15/2013 8:30:00 AM
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To the 2:18 am comment if we supposedly have all this grain on hand why are we importing more corn and beans than ever? The market did not do it's job in rationing bean demand and imports on corn are going up why, we don't have any. Not to hard to figure out. Good luck planting corn July 1st. Better hope you have perfect weather and no early frost or even a normal frost or your going to have 40 lb test weight corn. Elevators won't even take it or your going to get docked a lot. How does that pencil out?
Anonymous on 6/15/2013 8:12:00 AM
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Prevented Planting Option does not lower yields, which at this late date makes it a more attractive option. If you plant the crop then the future APH will go down when you harvest that poor crop. Right now, because of late planting date on corn and the penalty that would be incurred makes it a no brainer to not plant considering the costs of the seed, fertilizer, chemical, tillage costs, drying costs, storage costs, etc. The clock has run out. The game is over. Planting Corn right now is not an option if you push the pencil.
Anonymous on 6/15/2013 4:15:00 AM
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Instead of all the whinning about markets and no grain. Like the 125 million bushels. Well check the barges coming up river. They bring grain from S. America. That's why there is no change.
But here is a much bigger problem for those of you who need something to do. Before your really park that planter. If you APH has be going down the last few years you may need a jar of tums
Why? When they start knocking of the those percentages. What looked good maybe a real disappointment. So get those pencils out because you will need them. Then you guys are going to have to get busy and get the little APH thing changed around so you won't be looking off the road at the place you use to run. You may find the insurance PP payment is way below the cost of your own production. Better take a close look. I ran my numbers and July 1 st planted corn looks better than PP payment. Break out the 85 day corn. Beans are a looser that late.
Anonymous on 6/15/2013 2:18:00 AM
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Analyst would have you believe the usda is going to have a hard time figuring how many acres are being planted to what and how much is going to prevent planting. They know how many acres are being planted and to what crop. We have to certify acres and they can check with crop ins company's to see how many claims there were. The only hard thing they have to do is to figure out how they can come up with phony numbers so the balance sheet doesn't get to far out of wack. In the January report they said we had 125 mb on hand and 5 months later in the June report we still have 125 mb on hand??? I can hardly wait to see the report on 6/28.
Anonymous on 6/14/2013 11:11:00 PM
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The market will finally understand when harvest starts late and yields are "disappointing". Rain alone does not make grain.
Anonymous on 6/14/2013 5:40:00 AM
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Area between Madison and Milwaukee Wisconsin has lot of bare corn fields not even plowed as of June 10th. About 1 out of 5 abandoned. About half of these have ponding problems. Some good fields just untouched for no obvious reason. I hear it is worse further North? Is it this bad elsewhere?
Anonymous on 6/13/2013 5:36:00 PM
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early beans are "damping off" and dying in Nebraska due to cold wet weather this spring. it's not killing the whole field, but it is severly reducing stand counts.
Anonymous on 6/13/2013 10:36:00 AM
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Guided by the USDA will lead to financial ruin , they themselves need urgent guidance, and should repent for their sins ,as Hell is eagerly waiting for them, hope they get a hot reception
Anonymous on 6/13/2013 9:47:00 AM
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I have never filled out a USDA survey.Farmers are finally catching on.
Anonymous on 6/13/2013 9:23:00 AM
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A week and a half ago, I got off the farm and took a road trip. I live in NE Iowa so I took Hwy #18 across southern Wisconsin to Madison then south to Chicago and came back on Hwy #20 thru Dubuque to Waterloo then north. Maybe 20% of the ground was untouched and nobody in the field. Some hay was green chopped (not baled) and the black tracks they left made you shake your head. The oats looked good. Then last weekend I went to Des Moines by way of Mason City. Lots of ponds where there shouldn't be ponds. Too late and too wet to replant.....gone. Understand these observations were made from the window of my pickup at 60+ mph and watching for oncoming traffic. Traveled a lot of miles in a short time thru some pretty good farm ground. Locally, there are hundreds of acres abandoned.....not even planted for silage. Got my beans planted Tuesday and got 1 1/2 " of rain last night......others got more. I'm 60+ years old and farming is the reason to get up in the morning and anxious to face another day of challenges. They will drag me off this place three days before the funeral.
Anonymous on 6/13/2013 8:50:00 AM
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There will be millions of acres that will take the Prevented Planting option in Federal Crop Insurance. The analysts are not fully understanding that. Iowa is a disaster. The crop that is planted looks terrible with large areas dying out that were not even flooded out. This year is actually worse than 1993. We have had far more rain. And there is no end in sight.
Anonymous on 6/13/2013 7:26:00 AM
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We need to remember this when the usda sends out it's Census next year. I will continue throwing mine in the garbage. I'm also praying Psalms 109:8 over our President "let his days be few and another take his office." Amen.
Anonymous on 6/12/2013 8:36:00 PM
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Just do what I do when the USDA calls and wants info. I tell the poor soul who is doing the calling that "I'm sorry pal, but I wouldn't tell you clowns another thing if my life depended on it." Then, I hang up. Never again will I give them any numbers. Forget lying to them, just give them that line and hang up. The heck with them!
Anonymous on 6/12/2013 8:00:00 PM
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If rain makes grain,then more rain makes more grain.Buy some rice tires for your combine.You'll need 'em to bring in that big crop.
Anonymous on 6/12/2013 6:15:00 PM
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This report is beyond embarrassing for the usda. Do they really think were going to have a record bean crop with 20 million+ acres left to plant and most of these acres are being mudded in? Anybody with any common sense knows were not going to have 97 million acres of corn either. I suppose they didn't want to be left out with all the scandals going on in Washington so they did their part with this BS report today. I'm looking forward to the next report in a few weeks. I'm sure we won't be disappointed.
Anonymous on 6/12/2013 5:56:00 PM
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Stop anouncing what you have or are going to plant and let traders , USDA and FF just guess because if and when you do they will use the info to destroy the markets even more. let everyone guess !
Anonymous on 6/12/2013 2:27:00 PM
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The USDA would have us believe that there's lots of grain in storage and we'll grow bumper crops this year.Go to the CME website and download the charts for corn and beans,both old and new crop.Why such volatility? I'll bet that it's the same guys driving markets up and down.Bulls,bears are one and the same.They make their living this way.Other people get paid to analyze the game for us.It's like a game of poker except they get to see our hand,we get to ante up and tip the dealer,too.
Anonymous on 6/11/2013 7:55:00 PM
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Price manipulation, to make a quick buck ??
Anonymous on 6/11/2013 2:30:00 PM
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Stands on corn and beans arent what people originally thought. Weak seed along with wet spots at planting (nation wide) lead to thin stands in large areas. Starting to hear this from many including seed dealers and crop insurance salesman. I add that because of course farmers arent credible and dont know anything about their crop.
Anonymous on 6/11/2013 9:20:00 AM
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I saw the radar and it looked like plenty of rain to me to. The reason were at 95% done is because a lot of farmers are throwing in the towel and the usda is saying were almost done. Problem is were done with 93-94 million acres not the 97+ they said we were going to plant. Yet another way to manipulate the markets.
Anonymous on 6/10/2013 5:26:00 PM
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Think analysts should also get outside the office..!!
Anonymous on 6/10/2013 3:22:00 PM
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Some planting progress made Friday in south-central MN, but far from ideal conditions. Remaining crop is being mudded in. Alot of neighbors getting stuck and making lots of deep tracks in their fields.
Anonymous on 6/10/2013 8:15:00 AM
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Another 2 inch rain over the weekend here on the Iowa- Mn border. No sun and lots of beans to plant yet. Corn is at a standstill with no sun for weeks.Lots of ponding that will need replanting. It's like this in a big area. June 10 and looks like May 10. Maybe the boys at the USDA and the CBOT should get out of the office and into the real world ! I don't think the corn is gonna make "Knee high by the fourth of July" this year.... much less make a bumper crop. But what do I know, only been doing this for 37 years!
Anonymous on 6/10/2013 8:08:00 AM
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Did anyone see weekend planting in Iowa,Wisc.,Minn. S.Dakota? I watched the radar,didn't look like good drying weather to me.
Anonymous on 6/10/2013 7:42:00 AM
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When the sun manages to shine,it'll hit the dirt.
Anonymous on 6/7/2013 9:20:00 AM
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Corn 90 percent, beans 60 percent, Martin county MN. The corns been up for three to four weeks and its about two inches tall, soybeans that are up are having a hard time, 60 s and cloudy with rain about every three days. Talked to a mobile crop consultant, the Fairmont, MN area is the best for miles in any direction. Usually have 200 bushel corn and 65-70 beans, highly unlikely this year.
Anonymous on 6/7/2013 9:07:00 AM
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The market analysts do. We can't get a break on the weather. Crop is having major problems getting a good start in the major producing states. Producers would be wise to refrain from pricing. The crop will get smaller before it gets larger.
Anonymous on 6/7/2013 8:18:00 AM
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Eastern Wisc.has the worst start I've seen in years. The ditch is getting deeper.
Steve on 6/7/2013 8:09:00 AM
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Who believes we'll get the weather needed to pull this crop out of the ditch?
Anonymous on 6/7/2013 7:36:00 AM
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Flooding is terrible. Rivers at the highest levels I have seen in years. Rain since mid-May has resulted in few if any days for fieldwork. More rain in the forecast. Crop situation in Iowa is not good at all. Corn planted in our area has a minimum of 10% plus crop damage and the remainder looks very sick. Leaching of nitrogen, IMO, will have a significant impact and not sure that farmers will attempt to even sidedress due to conditions in the field and the demands of trying to plant remaining crops. The flooded fields are widespread over Iowa and other areas. Analysts are slow to recognize crop loss. End users would be wise to cover their projected needs. There is more field loss out there than just the drown out areas. Fields without pattern tiling have large areas that have died off due to damping off of corn and soybeans. It is not good.
Anonymous on 6/6/2013 9:14:00 AM
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how much flooding is going on in the three I states? is it really as bad as the national news makes it sound?
Anonymous on 6/6/2013 8:55:00 AM
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Seeing some of those last beans trying to get in. To wet to run a sprayer across a field but they were disking to make it dry out. They baried John Deers finest, pulled it out and kept on going. Dirt smelled like sewage waste after being worked and a nice compaction layer disk deep. Oh yea...60 bushel easy no matter what happens from here on out. To many acres doomed from the start. But what do I know compared to the experts sold the market. Let alone our fine trustworthy USDA.
Anonymous on 6/5/2013 10:21:00 PM
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I agree with 6/4 11:33 comments. I have everything planted, but wet spots have reduced stands. We need warm sunny weather and so far not getting it in June. I believe the heat units are even behind the last time I checked. Beans, which were planted before the last 4.5" hard rain have emergence issues with hard ground. Hot, dry weather in July and August will be brutal on this year's crop. So.... it is hard to agree with the market or analysts that predict adequate carry-overs and yields just below 160 on corn. The acres or yields just will not be there. Goss's Wilt and SDS on beans have been predicted to be bad this year also. But hey, lets just assume we will have good yields and sell what we may not have.
What if we have another 125 bushel year? Let's not talk about that however.
Scott County Eastern Iowa
Anonymous on 6/5/2013 8:11:00 PM
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Market trying to persuade producers to switch to soybeans ? Hoping for something to be able to work them over with, pen pushers should get real
Anonymous on 6/5/2013 10:50:00 AM
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In our area and across much of Iowa we have experienced severe drown out in acres that are considered to be planted. In addition, we are now seeing areas that are not well tiled but not drowned out on sloping ground that have the corn crop dying. With an additional 2 inches of rain last night and more forecast to be coming in the days ahead, it is highly doubtful that the drown out areas or wet dead acres will get planted to corn or any other crop. These are highly productive areas that have been producing 200 plus bushels of corn and 60 plus bushels of beans. At this point according to the calendar, and according to the conditions in the field, I really don't see how a 13 billion bushel corn crop is remotely possible. With ideal conditions the rest of the way we may struggle to get a 12 billion bushel corn crop and a sub 3 billion bushel bean crop. And if an early frost hits, look out. The pencil pushers need to come out of the office and take a look. But they probably want to stay inside, since it is constantly raining outside.
Anonymous on 6/5/2013 10:07:00 AM
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I'm finally able to spray last corn acres,sandy here too,the low heavier ground is normally the best yielding but looks sick.Making ruts but more rain coming,gotta finish best I can.
Anonymous on 6/5/2013 8:15:00 AM
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Great point on the farmer give up. What a brave conclusion for the market to make that all these planted acres are "good to go" and that the last 9 million acres will get planted with no problems. We are sandy, and you should see our wet spots!!!! I can only imagine what it is like in flat, great land(that actually holds water).
Anonymous on 6/5/2013 7:41:00 AM
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I heard that if a farmer gives up and parks the planter,statistically he is considered 100% planted.If so,then the weekly progress report might mislead some people into believing that 91% of 97M acres has been completed.
Anonymous on 6/5/2013 5:38:00 AM
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Bryce: For weeks, you've been putting $13.50 on new crop beans in play, not many others were...god job!
---------
longkansascitywheat.wordpress.com
Anonymous on 6/5/2013 2:09:00 AM
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The projections thus far are a bit ridiculous. Seriously. My corn crop was planted in mid-May and with the extreme wet conditions and drown out will likely be lucky to reach 150 bushel to 160 bushel average yield. This is from ground that has been averaging 200 bushel plus. Beans are not planted and have averaged around 60 bushels per acre the last few years. With the late date we are looking at, the yields will be hard pressed to make 45 to 50 bushels under ideal conditions. Many operators in our area will be taking the preventive planting provision on unplanted corn acres. I anticipate yields that will be lucky to meet the demand. End Users would be wise to cover their needs. The probability of crop shortfall exceeds the probability of crop excess at this point in time IMO.
Anonymous on 6/4/2013 11:33:00 AM
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Chart Traders ??? Mother Nature will at the end decide , and she is
not in a good mood at the moment. Look what happened to Wall Street in 2008, Chart Traders all saw their butt, and City Group had to cut their dividend to avoid seeing theirs, many of their associates did see theirs, big time. Mother Nature holds the key
Anonymous on 6/4/2013 7:38:00 AM
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Well guys, here is something to think about. Be galad that the markets are where they are. Got to punish S.America for a record crop. BUT here is something esle to think about. There could be a strong possibility of barges full of non U S grain being pushed up the Mississippi river from New Orleans to a farm in the heartland. How and Why!! Using a little USDA brain power. We are short on grain now. We have in the ground around 90 million acres of corn and beans anybody's guess. DON'T look good for much more planting of anything. You could get lucky but it is going to be like on Friday night when you were young. So how did that work out. Let the traders trade. If you do get any grain, better bin it up and sell round Christmas and plan on 1 sale and take the winter off.
Anonymous on 6/3/2013 7:25:00 AM
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They understand , but does the USDA understand, false reports, traders eyes light up, greed takes over
Anonymous on 5/30/2013 11:02:00 AM
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Surely NO one is dumb enough to believe that a few days of sunshine is going to get us back in the fields. It will take a whole week of sun and wind just to plant the tops. The bottoms are floating in water and mud. Fields are mud up to your eyeballs!!!!! Yet, when the sun does shine, many idiot traders will think we are planting the next day. I guess city people don't understand how mud works.
Anonymous on 5/30/2013 9:52:00 AM
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Rain makes grain........ right???????????????????
Anonymous on 5/29/2013 5:50:00 PM
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Can't wait to watch them lie again about planted/harvested acres. Hard to forget the silage corn that still went into the grain ledger last year. We probably found that 400 million extra in some coal mine in West Virginia. Now we will still have 97 million planted with a fat yield to boot.
Anonymous on 5/28/2013 8:36:00 AM
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Gotta say for May 28 things look bad , corn just trying to get outta the ground and now in saturated soil with no sunshine in the forecast for this week with more rain coming. As far as soybeans .. nothing up and a lot to plant yet around here in southern Mn. Going to be a lot of June planted beans. How's that USDA bumper crop forecast working out ?
Anonymous on 5/28/2013 7:42:00 AM
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No, unfortunately not otherwise they could all try screwing each other up, which would be a pleasure to watch for a change
Anonymous on 5/25/2013 3:45:00 AM
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Looks like a bumper crop for lemons. Are lemons traded on the cbot?
Anonymous on 5/24/2013 11:49:00 PM
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What can you expect with a lemon in the White House, and a lemon tree is the USDA and a lemon orchid is in Chicago?
Anonymous on 5/24/2013 12:05:00 PM
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Food is the most important commodity,(air and water are free) Socialists want their busy-body hands on everything,they're meddlers.Don't expect them to let the free market feed us.Rich farmers pose a dillema to them,they can't be bought.What did it cost the USDA to pull 400M bushels of corn out of thin air?Nothing,leaves more money for food stamps.Remember that it was socialists who wanted more money,so they tried to sell us global warming and carbon taxes and green credits.In their world,the end justifies the means,they'll pick your pockets clean,then buy your vote with it.
Anonymous on 5/24/2013 6:49:00 AM
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Yes, the tip of the ice berg is showing, God sees the whole ice berg, brains at the top, no brains I'm afraid , USA price trends effect the whole world trends, damage is enormous
Anonymous on 5/23/2013 11:58:00 PM
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This whole administration is an embarrassment to this country. You can only lie and cheat for so long and it will eventually catch up with you. Remember GOD sees all you can't fool him.
Anonymous on 5/23/2013 9:53:00 PM
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Typing out thoughts has never been my strong suit as you boys just read. Sorry.
Anonymous on 5/23/2013 7:50:00 PM
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I can not say that I am an Obama hater. I'm not. I'm very independent. I will say without hesitation that this is the most corrupt USDA ever. Maybe this is a small sample of the whole admin. that I'm just not noticing. They are keeping prices down in the ag markets to feed their low inflation idea. Sadly, when an entity is in heavy debt like the US is. The smartest way(and quickest) out is to inflate your economy out of the debt quagmire (sp?). I guess our brains up there will try to deflate it our. Brilliant.
Anonymous on 5/23/2013 7:48:00 PM
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Mark Gold,who is he?
Anonymous on 5/23/2013 6:44:00 PM
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With all of the scandals mounting around this administration I would think even the nay sayers would open their eyes. What would it take to get the USDA investigated? Anyone know? Who has to present this...Congressman?
Anonymous on 5/23/2013 10:27:00 AM
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The short answer is yes to the prevented plant question, but there are some reductions in both the prevented plant payments for the corn crop and insurance for the soybean crop. RMA has a whole list of rules and explanations for this scenario. – Paul
Anonymous on 5/23/2013 7:55:00 AM
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Bryce, you are soon to get heck when not reporting what conditions are so I would like to give you praise for your last few days of comments. Current rain delays for the last 30 percent, emergence, resurgence of demand, ethonal margins and such.
Another thing for the trade to realize is that when so much corn is forced planted into wet marginal conditions, it looses potential from day one. 10-15 percent of mine was forced due to date and forcast and I seen the neighbors making the same judgement calls. That percent will require a great growing season to perform up to snuff.
Also, in order for a 40 plus soybean national average it requires a lot of 60 bushel beans in the "I" states. I have never seen late May-June planted soybeans reach that yield. It would be interesting to see the odds of this by research.
Anonymous on 5/23/2013 7:38:00 AM
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A 2.33 soybean/corn ratio is on the threshold from a profit standpoint, if crops were planted at normal time. Late planted corn might change that equation depending on how much yield drag the late corn might have. History tells us that large corn to soybean acre shifts are rare, but individual operators may be making changes if it works on their farm. - Paul
Anonymous on 5/23/2013 7:38:00 AM
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Bryce, we are at a 2.33 ratio on corn/soy. What would you consider a number that would sway acres to soy away from corn? 2nd question...If you declare "prevented planted" on corn....can you go ahead and plant beans? I know that's a stupid question...us boys in the South don't have to know them rules.
Anonymous on 5/22/2013 11:15:00 AM
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I think you have a good idea there on the Sept/Dec.
Anonymous on 5/22/2013 11:12:00 AM
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Buy September corn and sell December corn.
Anonymous on 5/22/2013 9:46:00 AM
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Then Buy it back if the price goes 5.40. I have spent to many hours on the planter!
Anonymous on 5/21/2013 5:15:00 PM
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I meant to say I sold a Dec. corn contract at 5.30.
Anonymous on 5/21/2013 5:11:00 PM
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The futures contract is now for hedging(I am raising the bs flag} and not for delivery as it was originally intended for. If you ever trade futures you will soon learn that the trading has very little to do with the actual price of the commodity. For example I buy a dec corn contract at 5.30. I also enter a stop order to sell if the price goes to 5.40, so my risk is 10 cents or 500.00. The floor traders get to see my orders, so they will push the prices around to get me stopped out. They can move the market easily on a low volume day. (never trade the night market!)The big fish eat the minnows(me) and the whales eat the big fish. Its Bs! People trading these markets don't know wheat from barley! I have made 10gs in 5 min and lost it just as fast.
Anonymous on 5/21/2013 5:07:00 PM
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What about germination? plant population in adverse weather conditions ? Nobody can tell you what will be in the bins but the fearless USDA and greedy traders can, everybody is sucked in by this"fools rush in where angels fear to tread" wake up
Anonymous on 5/21/2013 9:43:00 AM
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Just a question? If you purchase a futures contract and ask for delivery apparently you may not get delivery, is this correct? If this is correct how does a livestock producer protect himself and of what use is the cbot when all they are doing is tradeing paper. Sounds a bit like the comex
Anonymous on 5/21/2013 7:50:00 AM
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Mark Gold is selling put options, so he wants everyone to think the worlds gona be swimming in corn. Reality is we may very well, but Its all about stealing from the farmer. Corn shouldn't be so cheap chicago before we even plant it for crying out loud.
Anonymous on 5/20/2013 6:11:00 AM
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I heard Mark Gold actually say if we have a normal summer and get a trend line yield we could have a "BURDONSOME" supply of grain on hand? Well that would be the last thing we would want is to actually have a little bit of grain on hand for food and fuel. What an absurbed statement. He also said the farmers have very little new crop sold so that's why it's not going up? So we as farmers should forward sell are grain even though we have no idea what kind of a yield were gonna have so the Cargill's, ADM's, Bunge's, China can get are grain cheap only to have it go up later on. What great advise. Where can i sign up for his newsletter? What a dumbass.
Anonymous on 5/19/2013 5:05:00 PM
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To answer 5/17. It is risk management remember...you didn't loose thousands of dollars and can not compete with the rest. You pulled a pay check like the the folks your listening to. All is fine now...right.
Anonymous on 5/18/2013 10:40:00 PM
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I sold my beans before those Brazilian beans could ruin the market.Too soon,apparently.
Anonymous on 5/17/2013 1:45:00 PM
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Note that I recommend using rallies to price bushels that aren't covered by insurance.What we have isn't a rally. Those who were following our recommendations already priced these bushels around $6. Sorry if some of you weren't listening then. Also, I wouldn't be selling the basis on new crop at all. The market should build carry for storage at a minimum.
-- Bryce
Anonymous on 5/17/2013 6:20:00 AM
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Bryce,Southern Ontario again.Some of us poor slobs don't have bins or a dryer,so we might sell a new crop contract to the local elevator.They're obligated to either hedge or flip those contracts to end users,right? CME is involved somewhere along the line.I'm currently offered 80 cents under Chicago Dec..Pathetic.Maybe I'll store it in the field,it'll be dry by April.
Anonymous on 5/16/2013 10:09:00 PM
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Also a long way from harvest. This unexpected heat wave is a little reminder that this summer will be a real crap shoot with late planted corn. Recommending farmers sell anything at a loss doesn't make very good business sense. That is the same logic our fearless leader Obama uses in government. Is that where we are headed? Government dictates grain prices? Welcome to the new USA comrades. China just loves our stupidity.
Anonymous on 5/16/2013 2:16:00 PM
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Our cost of production for a bushel of corn is $5.03. Cash price quote for December corn in our area is $4.87 at close today. Bryce why would any producers be selling? Should I assume that 2013 will be a loss on a cash basis? Then why should we plant? I don't understand your recommendation to sell December corn that isn't covered by crop insurance?
Anonymous on 5/16/2013 2:02:00 PM
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If early harvested corn is going to demand a premium this year due to tight stocks, then September corn should be a good buy at current prices under 5.70.
Anonymous on 5/16/2013 7:29:00 AM
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RE Southern Ontario's question: Farmers don't actually sell with futures contracts, because most are not in a position to deliver on them. Only a very small percentage of contracts are actually delivered on. Farmers, and end users, for that matter, use futures as a surrogate for hedging until they're ready to make a sale in the cash market. The fact there were no deliveries until Wednesday in either corn or soybeans reflects the tight stocks and strong cash basis.
And SC grower: Early harvested corn is really going to demand a premium this year due to tight stocks and late planting. But wheat is still in high demand, which is moving a lot of SRW out of Toledo. If you have corn in the Southeast, you're in the drivers seat. Rumors of imports are just the symptom of that, not the solution.
-- Bryce
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Anonymous on 5/15/2013 6:03:00 AM
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Thanks Bryce for your updates. Let me say this. My local end user which we sell to is bidding 130 over the July for corn. That sounds great. But, its only 60 over the May Corn that just settled. We haven't seen that basis in our area since May of last year. Am i selling that? Nope. Taking a chance I know, but our corn is in great shape, is far better than what scraps can be loaded out of Midwest(By scraps I mean the floor sweepings that's left up there. Not dissing you guys by any means up there! I don't here the squeal yet from end users. They will get tired of feeding wheat to chickens and they will need some corn to blend. How ironic is that? SC
Anonymous on 5/14/2013 7:24:00 PM
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Thanks for answering that one,here's another.Are producers doing more cash sales to end users than usual,bypassing futures contracts? Would that explain positive basis? I'm stuck with stored old crop in southern Ontario,CME's disinterest combined with local basis of 45 cents under July is frustrating.We sell corn into Michigan and import ethanol.Can't win.
Anonymous on 5/14/2013 9:23:00 AM
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Does the corn market need "real" grain to function? We're seeing this play out today as May contracts stop trading at noon. No corn or beans are registered for delivery, and nothing has been delivered so far. Significant numbers of both contracts remain open. Basis is on fire reflecting lack of supply available to market. Delivery isn't common, but it does ultimately bring the futures market back to reality. Remember: Only shorts can make delivery. Longs can't demand it. Changing this was one proposal made to alter futures contracts when basis was abnormally weak.
Farmers are long a lot of new crop corn. Our research shows less pricing than normal. While history in tight stocks years supports odds for a rally, it doesn't guarantee them. 1984, the previous record slow planting year, saw a good rally in the summer, then a crash. 1983 was hot and dry at pollination, with acreage way down due to the PIK program.
-- Bryce
Anonymous on 5/14/2013 7:39:00 AM
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"Virtual" corn would be short sales,the kind of corn that follows a USDA report.
Anonymous on 5/14/2013 6:50:00 AM
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Bryce,I heard the curious comment on the weekend US Farm Report.One analyst believed that the corn market had bottomed and was about to rally. Give him a cigar.The other guy fretted that most farmers were long corn and would suffer the consequences.What I want to know is this: Do non-commercial CME traders need grain to facilitate price determination,or can they achieve same with "virtual" grain.I assume that if I,as a farmer,promise to deliver grain,that would be considered "real" grain.
Anonymous on 5/13/2013 4:49:00 PM
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Re Exports: We shipped a few million more bushels than expected last week and July corn rallied seven cents.
-- Bryce
Anonymous on 5/13/2013 10:37:00 AM
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Don't know why corn would go up if farmers are selling, but I don't read what other analysts are saying much. I suggest you folks ready my weekly reviews, which have been saying for some time that the key to the market is old crop corn tightness, especially June 28 stocks report. The Morning Market Review is news-oriented. If you want to read somebody ranting, there are plenty of other alternatives.
-- Bryce
Anonymous on 5/13/2013 10:34:00 AM
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I'm a corn, corn, bean rotation- so I'm able to switch 25% of my irrigated corn acres to beans without being beans on beans. there is more profit in irrigated beans at $11.50 than corn at $4.5. I'm going to make my seed dealer mad when I return a bunch of corn seed.
Anonymous on 5/13/2013 8:29:00 AM
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Thank you for your kind words,Nixon was jumped on for Water gate, and quit, Clinton , the draft dodger, should have done the honorable thing and quit over Monica, he lied to your nation and the world, and was found out, but being a sweet talker got away with it.White Waters I think it was called a long time back, cattle futures contracts, scandal involving Hillary, a lid was put on it if I recall, now on her watch as Secretary of State , it is alleged was involved
in a cover up on the attack on the US Embassy in Libya ? The present incumbent of the White House hit the top terrorist in the world, give him credit for that. He can talk the talk but can't walk the walk, has newer had a job in his life, but has risen to become President, a credit to your system? He it seems is determined to turn USA into a socialist state.The farmers world wide are the back bone of every country, if they are continually short changed , we will all starve to death, here manipulation, bribery and corruption are the order of the day. Time to the line in the sand enough is enough, people running the show world wide are as straight as a bent cork screw. Farm Futures can't say much for fear of being taken to court.USDA can say what they want with impunity, they are under instruction. USA is still the world leader in Agriculture, you people must form a united front across political lines and demand the truth.I wonder what a forensic audit of some traders books would reveal, perhaps a court order to do just that would do some good.Remember USA agriculture is the bench mark for the world, please take that responsibility seriously
Have a nice day Les South Africa
Anonymous on 5/13/2013 3:21:00 AM
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Bryce,on the weekend I heard someone say that the price of corn will not go up unless farmers start selling! Can you explain? Why should we supply discount poker chips to the traders?
Anonymous on 5/12/2013 4:05:00 PM
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Good luck to you sir in South Africa. Al Capone and our current administation do certainly have alot in common. Both being Chicago thugs is just one example. I, as one, appologize for what we have become. Your grandfather certainly would not reconize us now. We had one great generation (he may have been one himself) but have become slapped around drones now. Thanks for your message to Farm Futures but I would guess it is in vein. I myself call on Bryce to answer this post from two extremes of the world that apparently have much in common when it comes to feeding the world.
Anonymous on 5/12/2013 1:24:00 PM
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I must say this , Al Capone would have been proud of the USDA and those who instruct them Les South Africa
Anonymous on 5/12/2013 12:12:00 PM
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Thank you, you have got it right , so my message to Farm Futures editors is, quit the diplomatic talk and give it as it is, show some balls, or the fat cats will get fatter, the farmer will continue to sweat18 hours a day, we do not have a forum like Farm Futures to
comment on, so the traders have a free hand, problem is what happens on CBOT is followed by gangsters here and elsewhere in
the world.How about a Senate enquiry into this practise?Thanks once more at least a few have some back bone left, America was not built by spineless individuals
Les
Anonymous on 5/12/2013 11:47:00 AM
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If we the USA farmers want to call the USDA on their numbers.All we have to do is buy one july corn in demand delivery. I guess by the end of delivery we find out if the extra 400 million bushels are their.
Anonymous on 5/12/2013 11:42:00 AM
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My response to our South Africa counterpart. As a US producer, believe me I'm disgusted with our USDA. I am also disgusted with anyone publicly digesting and belching the continual bogus information on our production and usage. We have had horrible, lying information from our USDA since 2008. Analyst know this but instead of calling the bluff, they take the latest released bogus numbers and work forward from there. Then when the next report is bogus, they just rework their previous findings to match and again work forward from there. This has been going on since 2008 I believe. US grain producers are 1 percent of our populous. However, because of the producers I would guess 20 plus percent of our populous gets to take home a paycheck. If corn is 4 dollars or 7, these same people take home the same paycheck. It is only the actual producer that takes the blunt, and lets face it, the world as a whole likes 4 dollar corn a hell of a lot better than 7. In order for these horrible USDA reports to ever get fixed, it will take a lot more populous caring than the lonely 1 percent. Unfortunately I feel the other people that unknowingly ( or plain don't care) depend on us for their paycheck will never stand up in our defense or yours.
Anonymous on 5/12/2013 10:21:00 AM
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From South Africa, please help, the USDA is manipulating the information, on whose instruction , White House ? For what purpose, this is insider trading at its best, a criminal offence , people are jailed for this. What the CBOT says determines the world markets, to the benefit of traders etc, big money for them, farmers zero, we don't have the maize crop our Mafia says, start at the top nail your guys!!! LES
Anonymous on 5/11/2013 5:28:00 AM
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Bryce, if our corn exports have been so poor maybe you should figure out why instead of harping on it week after week. Here's a hint, read the following comment, that person hit it right on. We DON'T have any corn to export. Since the January report 5 months ago we still have 125 million bu of beans on hand yet? Sounds like market manipulation, corruption, bullshit or whatever you want to call it.
Anonymous on 5/11/2013 12:33:00 AM
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I am not going to jump on Bryce, but I will say its a little ironic that we export a few boats of beans a week, and now we are importing them. I know its got to do with location, etc., so save your return rant. All winter and spring we've been "barely" exporting corn, and at the same time we've been hit over the head with the small amount of corn importing we've been doing. Maybe I am just naive, but it hints at the real shortage of corn and beans that we have. Of course we can find 400 million corn on paper that laying around and we can tweak the residual bean numbers to suit USDA's fancy. I'm for cutting govt all right....USDA is a great place to start.
Anonymous on 5/10/2013 9:41:00 AM
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Bryce every analyst keeps saying the same story about poor export sales. We have no corn to export. That is real story. Ethanol plants can't source corn feedlots can't so how can we export it. Quit spotting the company line its crazy and makes you look even worse.
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Anonymous on 5/9/2013 8:57:00 AM
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The big inverse in beans is why we're saying get done with old crop sales.
-- Bryce
Anonymous on 5/8/2013 8:08:00 PM
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Just a suggestion here Bryce, but elevators here have long ago switch to July futures for their current cash price. Perhaps you could do the same with your recommendations
Anonymous on 5/8/2013 10:16:00 AM
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Total production and carrying cost for a bushel of corn now runs at $5. Cash prices being offered for December 13 corn is $5. USDA has farm price for corn pegged at $4.10 for 2014/2015. Tightest corn supplies in 18 years. But wait , no problem we'll just pull 2 billion bushel out of our ass.Get the picture. Apparently USDA does not. Thank you Tom Vilsack. Wouldn't yuh think an Iowa boy would know better. Obama has taken his balls.
Anonymous on 5/8/2013 9:48:00 AM
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Crazy looking Monthly charts, looks like a shoulders missing...
Anonymous on 5/7/2013 11:24:00 AM
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Planting progress report will still be at historical lows.Next statistic to watch for will be emergence.Ground will be cold and wet,seed will lay there and shiver.
Anonymous on 5/6/2013 9:44:00 AM
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Hang on fellows..It's time for more bogus numbers from the fantastic USDA Friday !!
Anonymous on 5/6/2013 7:19:00 AM
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We have 400m extra bushels out there...not a problem
Anonymous on 5/4/2013 5:00:00 PM
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North East Nebraska basis went from $.40 to $.80 over CBOT, in one day, with cash bids of $7.40 (last friday) in an effort to free up old crop corn for end users. Several processors and feedlots were running short on their current needs with farmers busy with spring field work. Wonder where the spring cash market will top out at?
Anonymous on 5/4/2013 4:27:00 PM
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May corn might have went to 7.05 but nobody is going off the May price there going off the July price which is about .40 less.
Anonymous on 5/4/2013 8:22:00 AM
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May corn went to 7.05 today. It seems like all corn would have been sold at these prices. Are some people waiting for higher prices?
Anonymous on 5/3/2013 1:05:00 PM
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Not sure about the weather link question--the maps seem to be the same.
As for DP, it's been my experience that elevators offer it when they expect basis to weaken. They're betting that will happen due to the large premium from July to Sep. Remember, elevators can't speculate. They have to be hedged.
As for bandwagons, I try not to jump on them, up or down. The name of the game is risk management. If you want someone to always be bullish, there are plenty of folks willing to tell you what you want to hear.
-- Bryce
Anonymous on 5/1/2013 6:22:00 PM
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If quality means uniformity and clean, then yes. In industry (not with farmers) quality very much means protein and oil content. US soybeans don't compete well with S. A. soybeans. We lose about a buck fifty on that end of the deal. Researchers in the US focus on yield. Foreign buyers purchase protein. For the US to become the new S. A. that needs to be addressed.
AgMgr on 5/3/2013 8:53:00 AM
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I have read the comments for 3 or 4 weeks back. The price of corn, soybeans and wheat are going down to punish South America for there record crops. This also helps the Chinese for cheap grain. But South America is like a black hole. Once in its a bitch to get anything out. The farmer is paying I think over $2.00 a bushel to ship from the field to port. That takes 2 weeks or more round trip. Once they get it on the dock it can take up to 2 months to get your ship loaded. You pay around $30,000.00 a day for that ship to sit waiting to load out. If it rains there is no loading the boat. Their grain prices are lower than our prices on the CBOT. Even with cheap grain the Chinese are still buying here. WHY???. Because we deliver on time and have quality. If we don't do something about the locks on the Mississippi and some other bottlenecks we could become the new S.A.
Anonymous on 5/1/2013 9:12:00 AM
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Your link to the extended forecast does not jive with this from The Weather Prediction center . I usually put more confidence in this .http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif .
Anonymous on 4/30/2013 8:40:00 AM
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Comparing current corn prices to September corn prices, there is just too much risk to bet on September ever beating current prices.
Anonymous on 4/30/2013 7:48:00 AM
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elevators are now offering dp contracts (deverred payment i.e. free storage) on corn. think they are scrambling to secure old crop bushels to meet their end users needs with an impending late new crop?
Anonymous on 4/30/2013 7:36:00 AM
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C'mon people,charts don't predict fundamentals.As for statistics,they're historical (arte)facts.This weather must be embarrassing to Al Gore and his consenting climatologists.
Anonymous on 4/29/2013 11:46:00 PM
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Bryce, you were one of the last to see the drought last year, are you really going to be the last to see the late planting this year. Come on man, break free of the heard.
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Anonymous on 4/28/2013 6:01:00 AM
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No worries. Mother Nature is going to make all of us idle 10. If you all want $8.00 corn. Well grow a spine and get with the new program. Sell some grain when you need money to keep going. Do cash sales when the price says you are making a profit. If there is no grain of any kind coming out of farmers bins. The price will raise either on the CBOT or through basis. Remember what they taught you in high school economics class. SUPPLY IS DOWN THE PRICE GOES UP!!!! Most of you have bins today. Let's use them this year. Keep them full until Christmas and see what happens to then price. All it will take is 30 to 40% of the grain normally sold in the fall not sold and stored on the farm to change thins to profitable this year. You are the ones growing it. All the profit does not have to go to everyone after you sell it for break even. Something to think about. SOYBEANS ARE OVER $21.00 ON THE DOCK IN CHINA. THEY ARE GOING TO RUN THAT $21.00 BUSHEL OF BEANS AND $9.87 CORN THROUGH A PIG TO BE ABLE TO EAT BACON. THINK ABOUT THAT. Also last fall China pushed the bean market here to $17.49. So until all of us farmers get it figured out. WE DO HAVE THE POWER TO CONTROL THE MARKET AND MAKE A PROFIT FOR THOSE 18 HOUR DAYS.
Anonymous on 4/27/2013 7:53:00 AM
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forced deliveries of what. there are no registered deliveries. This is just smoke and mirrors
Anonymous on 4/26/2013 9:03:00 AM
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Do you think we will see 7$ corn again before fall harvest?
Anonymous on 4/25/2013 1:13:00 PM
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SE Colorado the dirt blowing good.
Anonymous on 4/25/2013 1:07:00 PM
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Now you guys are getting it.
Anonymous on 4/25/2013 11:22:00 AM
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11:54 Loved that comment. I am not going to plant and not worry.Taking the summer off and farming on paper.I hope Isee you all in Costa Rica.
Anonymous on 4/25/2013 10:38:00 AM
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http://talk.newagtalk.com/forums/thread-view.asp?tid=384916&mid=3060778
how much impact impact will the freeze damage in Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas have on the wheat market? I'm thinking about investing in a few wheat calls.
I'm thinking it's still early enough to replant the Texas corn crop and raise a decent crop- most of the later corn has been yielding better the last two years .
Anonymous on 4/25/2013 8:23:00 AM
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don't worry be happy!
Anonymous on 4/24/2013 7:37:00 PM
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Dude, your comments at 11:54 are beyond good. Thanks for the reminder of how easy it is to make 158 per after a start like this. Golden.
Anonymous on 4/24/2013 6:34:00 PM
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All you guys worry to much. I mean, you would think you do this for a living or something. Just because you have farmed for years, you act like you may actually have a better feel on things than the traders or USDA. You guys need to lighten up.
I mean, just because it will be pushing mid May when you get rolling good, don't worry about it. Just because you will be muding in the best low ground because the other 90 percent is fit, don't worry about it. Just because you get a flat tire at 5:30 pm and everyone is closed, don't worry about it. Just because that 96 row planter (the traders say you have) electronics break down and you can't find the problem, don't worry about it. Just because you are trying to work 18 hours a day and your help is brain dead and disgruntled after 12 don't worry about it. Just because you finish a field at 10 pm and can't move the machinery due to the urban traffic, don't worry about it. Just because you have to stop everything to get the flooded debris off of that bottom field, don't worry about it. Just because the corn is planting like crap because of all the green winter annuals bunched up, don't worry about it. Just because you should wait 7 days before you plant after that 24D application you were finally able to do, don't worry about it. Just because... Well you get the idea. Come on guys, many analyst and the USDA have said huge corn acres and yield is looming just around the corner. Have a little trust and quit using your actual knowledge for goodness sakes. Sell 220 bushel per acre at 5 dollars and be quiet already. I mean, it's not like anything can go wrong.
Anonymous on 4/24/2013 11:54:00 AM
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Wheat around Denver Colorado 6 inch tall and turned brown.That was before two days ago.Rockies baseball game start at 23 degrees record low for start of game.That was 1P.M.I wonder if that hurt the wheat ? Is their a farmerthat can answer this Question?
Anonymous on 4/24/2013 10:12:00 AM
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The Mississippi Valley is floating away, The Red River valley has not even done it's flood thing yet . How can these traders keep butchering the markets every day ? I don't know whose got their head in the sand.
Anonymous on 4/24/2013 7:49:00 AM
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These markets are not very logical. Analysts are all over the board. As usual, especially the last few years, you have to go with your gut feeling. And my feeling is that this show isn't over folks, as so many are predicting. There will be a lot of pressure on farmers to get going, when they should wait a few more days. Big yield drag there. Weather is having the final say again. Problem is the market will be trading more acres and yields than what there really will be. And then there is the USDA....lets make some more assumptions. Got to love this farming. Soil temps upper 30s NW Iowa to just over 50 SE Iowa as of today. Still have a lot of drying to do.
Scott County Eastern Iowa
Anonymous on 4/23/2013 11:26:00 PM
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Guys...... No need to worry about the planting delays after all the usda said we would produce 160+ corn crop based on normal weather. The Dakota's were gonna plant a record amount of corn this year. How's that working out so far?
Anonymous on 4/23/2013 8:28:00 PM
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Funds trading corn like we have 40% planted instead of the 4% that is. Perfect year for "idle 10".
Anonymous on 4/23/2013 7:24:00 PM
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Well I always thought you start losing yeild after May 1 but guess what .. not anymore .. !!
And heard more than one talking head say this week the farmer's have such large equipment they can get the crop planted in a day or two I guess. Here in Sw Mn we have had 50 degrees maybe a half dozen days this spring and always freezing temps at night, heck it was 18 this morning with a fresh 6 inches of snow on the ground. But this is normal ..Right ??
Anonymous on 4/23/2013 3:34:00 PM
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No, no...its gonna be a bumper crop off of huge acres of corn. We will swim in corn. No, cotton won't steal acres. Their chart looks great, corn's is at the lows! Beans are selling new crop to China like its going out of style, surely that won't talk someone into quitting the madness of corn on corn for years and years in a row. Naw....we will plant 97 million acres of corn and make 160 per because plant date is not that important this year. Swimming in corn I say!!!
Anonymous on 4/23/2013 3:16:00 PM
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No fieldwork this week
Anonymous on 4/23/2013 8:29:00 AM
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G'day Guys Australia's wheat belt dry. Just had 4mm, bugger all. should have crop in now, no rain in sight for a fair while.CBOT price has stalled, many problems out there but no reaction to the CBOT, The fund traders have got the manipulation monopoly, they control the price till the shit hits the fan, and then the cbot blows out. Won't be long. Cheers Dusty Long Prong
Anonymous on 4/22/2013 5:39:00 AM
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Anonymous on 4/22/2013 5:30:00 AM
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South-Central MN 6 inches of snow with more coming. It doesn't look like any corn will be planted in April here.
Anonymous on 4/18/2013 5:28:00 PM
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There's corn out there,but it's stored far away from the end users.Who pays the freight?
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Anonymous on 4/14/2013 11:51:00 PM
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Anonymous on 4/12/2013 10:07:00 AM
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As long as the government or USDA is in the middle the ends will never meet. Drawbar
Anonymous on 4/12/2013 8:50:00 AM
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Some corn futures traders may believe USDA reports, but most farmers and sellers don't believe the numbers. If they did, there would not be such a big difference between July and September prices.
Anonymous on 4/11/2013 9:44:00 AM
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World wheat stocks up 148 million.Brazil and China bought USA wheat.I need help with this number.4/9/13 most of the wheat farmers were chisling up their wheat because of blowing dirt.You do not have to worry about freeze damage most of it is already gone.SE Colorado
Anonymous on 4/10/2013 4:26:00 PM
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Lets see...Brazil importing corn from Argentina. US importing corn from Argentina, China importing corn from everywhere: and global stocks shoot up???? One question/statement...when we sequester cuts get to that department of USDA?
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Anonymous on 4/9/2013 11:23:00 AM
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If refiners can do it, so can farmers. When supplies of fuel become abundant and price begins to drop, they cut back on refining. The price then does exactly what they want it to. If we stick together, we can do the same thing. Everybody should ask themselves what would I rather do (plant 100% of acres and sell corn for $4-5/bushel or plant 90% and sell corn for $7-8/bushel). I am in SC and plan on cutting back 50% in order to put in irrigation. IDLE 10
Anonymous on 4/8/2013 9:29:00 AM
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Wow!!! World wide IDLE 10,I'm in CO
Anonymous on 4/6/2013 4:55:00 PM
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I'm in from Australia IDLE 10, I will crop less and also not sell till the CBOT goes back up
Anonymous on 4/6/2013 12:44:00 AM
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Supply and demand, I plan to idle 10% regardless of what others do.
Our government needs to concern themselves with out of control spending
and leave the numbers to the free market!!
Ohio!
Anonymous on 4/5/2013 8:14:00 AM
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USDA reports are important for the futures market, but the decisions of farmers to sell are the most important factors for cash crop prices.
Anonymous on 4/4/2013 7:58:00 AM
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There were several private estimates of grain stocks before the USDA report.Were they trying to guess what the gov't would say or did they do their own research?Judging from the wide range of estimates,no one can know how much grain exists at any point in time.For some reason,private forecasts are a guess and the USDA is taken as fact. Seems to me that private businesses have money on the table,while the USDA can say what they want with little consequence to their paychecks.
Anonymous on 4/4/2013 7:12:00 AM
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A friend sent me a link to a piece by Blake Hurst, at American Enterprise, "The Next Real Estate Bubble: Farmland", an article about a bubble that is predicted to burst soon - like I couldn't see that coming as though it were a freight train roaring toward us in a narrow tunnel. Mercy, some genius figured out that farmland prices at these levels are "unsustainable". Who'd a thunk it, with corn under $5:00? I may park my pivots and fallow my fields until fall, when I will plant low-input wheat. Perhaps the DC bureaucrats need a demonstration of our displeasure at their manipulation of numbers to help their big industry cronies. Why risk the big bucks to plant corn and cotton, when we have to fight Mother Nature, the EPA, the local water authority, and now USDA's fairytale reports? TxTumbleweed
Anonymous on 4/3/2013 10:19:00 AM
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Last year we had a drop of 13% in corn production and had $8 corn.I think I am going to planting 15% less .Work 14 hours a day instead of 18.Farmer need a profit too.
Anonymous on 4/3/2013 10:09:00 AM
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You folks in Texas and some other states still have a chance.Here in Colorado the government has gone to POT. Be careful how you vote.From the weternslope . Drawbar
Anonymous on 4/3/2013 8:47:00 AM
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I have an idea! How about Uncle Sam quit offering these more and more audaciously bogus reports, as one of the sequester "savings". None of us who pay attention, believe anything they are putting out, anyway. Private forecasters who have the intestinal fortitude to buck the system, and put out their true figures, rather than hedge themselves against USDA,have proven they can do the job for the private sector very well. Imagine how much grain got contracted for biofuel production and cattle feeding by the BIGS, Carg, ADM, et al.
And for those of you who keep telling us to lie about our planting intentions... please, get up to speed. The gub'ment doesn't need our direct information, they can figure out what we are doing using satellite imagery, aerial photography and drones. They prefer to spy on us through those methods anyway. Some of the new policies they have announced lately certainly makes me wonder how long it will be before we have to meet with the "central committee" annually to justify our continuance in business. These overbearing fools are drunk on their power. TxTumbleweed
Anonymous on 4/2/2013 9:17:00 AM
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I doubt any information given out by Government agencies, especially the recent grain report.
Robert T. Myers on 4/2/2013 8:00:00 AM
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Use this break to get some coverage. I'll be happy to get some bought to sell down the road at much higher prices.
Anonymous on 4/1/2013 8:06:00 PM
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I would like to here from a farmer who still has grain to sell.My grain bin is empty.I did not plant any corn because their was not enough river water to plant.The snow pack is worse this year.Who got all this corn? Southeast Colorado Farmer
Anonymous on 4/1/2013 7:44:00 PM
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CBOT wheat price fallen 300 cents, in 4 months what a joke, No profit here in Australia now, farm gate ASW $180 per ton, $15 a bag, 7 bag farm average $105 gross return, that's cost, The USDA is a joke, Bryce Report on the actual state of the stocks and drought in America and around the world so at least we can have some confidence in going forward.And Guys DON'T SELL.
Anonymous on 4/1/2013 3:28:00 PM
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We have lost a dollar on corn futures in two days over 500 million bushels of corn.If we raise a 2 Billion carry out this year > Will anybody make a profit?
Anonymous on 4/1/2013 1:23:00 PM
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stop telling your planted acres and let the usda and all the rest guess at what you planted. you give them all the information they need to cut your throat with lower prices.
Anonymous on 4/1/2013 9:50:00 AM
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Have some patience guys. Same thing happened last year. Weather holds the final cards. Darin Newsom called the reports a shell game. Even the trend line yields a joke. Anyone that has been farming more than a couple years should know this. Let's get the crop planted and emerged (hopefully) and then watch the fireworks. It is really interesting watching all the analysts get on board to predict doom and gloom. They haven't a clue either. USDA will just fudge old and new crop in August just like they normally do to arrive at enough corn on hand while the basis levels say differently. I still think we are dealing with a short 2011 crop which was carrried into 2012 and now carried further into 2013. Just wait, it will be hot and dry this summer. It is good to have a place to vent our frustrations though.
Scott County eastern Iowa farmer.
Anonymous on 4/1/2013 8:21:00 AM
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The people who came up with these figures probably graduated from our schools. Maybe they can't add and subtract. This report was fixed to lower prices in an attempt to lower food prices. We should have known it was coming.
Anonymous on 4/1/2013 8:05:00 AM
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Time to cut federal spending. Lets start with oboma, joe, nancy, harry ,hillary and all the rest of the white house idiots. We need Bibles, Guns, and full GrainBins.
Anonymous on 4/1/2013 7:55:00 AM
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Confidence in the integrity of the grain markets? What little confidence was left just disappeared.The USDA says abracadabra and corn prices hit the floor.Watch basis this week.
Anonymous on 3/31/2013 9:38:00 PM
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With a extra 500 million bu in a bad year. I think we should cut planting by 20%.If we don't we will lose money on 100% of our acres!
Anonymous on 3/31/2013 10:53:00 AM
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"IF" we had this extra 400 million bu of corn as of March 1as the usda said, then why are basis at historical highs? Beans in my area for the last 2 months are 30-40 cents over cbot and corn basis is still high. Does anybody have the phone number to the usda cuz i would like to buy some of this so called extra they mysteriously came up with. Even the bearish guys that i know are scratching their head on how you could come up with more corn, beans and wheat on hand. More of all three??? If the report looks like BS, smells like BS, it is BS.
Anonymous on 3/31/2013 9:31:00 AM
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The Answer is EASY...DON'T SELL ANY MORE GRAIN, for 3 months, just don't sell and we will see the prices rise. We need to do this.
Anonymous on 3/31/2013 2:21:00 AM
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If enough farmers get mad enough at USDA, they can stop selling and push prices higher than they were before.
Anonymous on 3/30/2013 8:04:00 AM
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Were is all the grain. Drought in America, Russia needing a stock replenishment, UK has weather damaged crops, Supply from India is hard, Australia's crop was down, If the USDA report is so wrong will the price spike in coming weeks?
Anonymous on 3/29/2013 1:39:00 PM
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This is the largest discrempency between what analysis thought and what the usda said ever in history. Sounds like the biggest bullshit report in history also. Isn't it nice to know no matter how tight the supplys get we can count on the usda to make up phony numbers wave their magical wand and presto we suddenly have plenty to go around. Problem is though we don't live in a fantasy world like they do and the basis in my area got tighter. Just where in the hell is all this corn? It might be on paper but the last time i checked ethanol plants and livestock don't do very good on paper.
Anonymous on 3/28/2013 10:32:00 PM
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The USDA reports are just another example of a broken Washington. These figures are highly bogus put out by people that wouldn't know corn from wheat.
Anonymous on 3/28/2013 10:02:00 PM
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The USDA report may be a good reason for futures prices to crash, but the USDA report is not a good reason for farmers to sell corn for less.
Anonymous on 3/28/2013 3:48:00 PM
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They couldn't import enough corn if it was free...way to slow!
Anonymous on 3/28/2013 3:00:00 PM
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Keep the doors locked!....They are trying to shake the market...not selling mine until Aug.
Anonymous on 3/28/2013 2:58:00 PM
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If we ran out of corn,the USDA would have some explaining to do.Their methodology is to survey a few people then extrapolate.Considering what happened to last years crop,a miss might be a mile.
Anonymous on 3/27/2013 10:20:00 PM
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Bring back Arlin
Anonymous on 3/27/2013 7:48:00 AM
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I am joining the 10% percent movement!
Anonymous on 3/26/2013 10:54:00 AM
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"... a haircut"? Hair grows back, and you need it cut again within a month... Somehow I don't see folks savings growing back quite so fast. Perhaps the term "haircut" has been chosen to minimize outrage. I heard it used repeatedly by the sycophantic financial media, over the last couple of days.
I have been proud that Ag journalism has mostly resisted becoming lackeys of our government. Even though we are amazed by the clumsy manipulation we witness, we must deal with what "is", rather than what has been in the past, or what we believe should "be".
Appreciate your efforts, Mr Knorr
Anonymous on 3/25/2013 9:00:00 AM
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I lack confidence in the grain markets because of USDA. USDA makes a statement and the markets react. Then later USDA makes another report that the first statement was very wrong and the markets react to that. The markets are often wrong because USDA is so often wrong.
Anonymous on 3/25/2013 8:15:00 AM
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I sensing a lack of confidence in the integrity of the grain markets. Comments? If you'd care to discuss further, email me at: bknorr@farmprogress.com
-- Bryce
Anonymous on 3/25/2013 7:03:00 AM
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If farmers could organize, a co-op could allocate buying based on acres. Each farmer would be able to cut costs by planting less and would make more per bushel.
Anonymous on 3/22/2013 8:28:00 AM
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producers,,,just stop telling what your planting ! your killing your own market when you do.
Anonymous on 3/21/2013 8:15:00 AM
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Just think if the american farmers could REALLY organize? CBOT's opinion of what our crops are worth would be meaningless. There would be alot of suits and ties in the soup line in Chicago. It's really too bad it will never happen.
Anonymous on 3/21/2013 7:27:00 AM
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even if we cut corn acreage by 10%, is the USDA going to be honest and reflect this in their reports. At this time I don't think they have much creditablity
Anonymous on 3/20/2013 8:35:00 AM
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I f wall street can farm on paper so can we. Cut back on planted acres and buy options on the board to protect yourself. Why should we take all the risk and not get paid for it? We know where prices are headed if we cut production. All these bright analyst say if you think it's going down buy a put or if it's going higher buy a call. Farming on paper sure has a hell of a lot less imputs and i can manage my risk easier.
Anonymous on 3/13/2013 10:14:00 PM
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I agree with 3/12 comments.I am going tp plant less.My ground going to need time to recover from the drought.
Anonymous on 3/13/2013 11:20:00 AM
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The 3/12 comment is spot on. It's another game at the casion for wall street. We can beat them at their own game by cutting acres from 98-100 million acres to 90-92 million acres. If we over produce and prices tank we have nobody to blame but ourselves.
Anonymous on 3/12/2013 10:37:00 PM
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CBOT is a big fix, does not represent rural America short of feed, and why have the Wall Street Bankers gamble on our food supply, something is wrong with this whole picture. We are looking for grain and they shuffle paper, and we in the rural area get hurt.
Anonymous on 3/12/2013 7:37:00 PM
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Yes, we all will if we do not cut planted acres.$5.71 could look good.
Anonymous on 3/11/2013 11:02:00 AM
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I wonder if it is realistic to think that anyone will sell corn for 5.71 in September.
Anonymous on 3/9/2013 8:00:00 AM
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Amazing tips! This formula can apply on many areas. Thank you
PAMM Account on 3/5/2013 11:30:00 PM
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I'd bet that the Brazilian dock workers are giving it less than 100% right now.Contract negotiations can drag down gumption.
Anonymous on 3/5/2013 7:48:00 AM
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Its really not a hard decision to plant beans over corn on dry land. The irrigated land pays better for corn, but not by much when you figure input cost. Corn on corn, has been the norm for a few years too, and the ground is ready for a bean rotation.
The USDA had to come out with a big corn number! Reason being, the government has shorted the market to establish a low crop insurance number. So they had to have an excuse for the market fall.
Anonymous on 2/27/2013 8:21:00 AM
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Absolute moves don't mean what they used to. Trading ranges are bigger than they used to be, too. Until nearby takes out $6.78, it's a range. South Korea bought 55,000 mt of Indian feed wheat last week, so there still seems to be some available.
-- Bryce
Anonymous on 2/20/2013 10:37:00 AM
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As soon as corn stocks are plentiful, look for an increase in ethanol mandates. Corn will get used!! Same goes for beans!
Anonymous on 2/18/2013 8:06:00 PM
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Just look @ the BIG PICTURE!!! Thinks of soybeans like the mighty Mississippi River, one year, record floods, 12 months later, dredges are digging trying to keep barges moving. October of 2012 soybeans nearly hit 18.00$ a bushel, they are tradin @ 14.00$ now, bye this october i look for em to be in 7$ range. thanks gperry39@yahoo.com
Anonymous on 2/17/2013 10:13:00 AM
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Farmers, new crop prices are telling us they don't want 98-100 milllion acres of corn. We can keep the prices high by NOT OVER PRODUCING. Is there another industry that's more manipulated and corrupt than agriculture? I heard this same BS last year that we were gonna have a BIG crop and prices were headed to $3. The drought is bigger now this year than at the same time last year and were supposedly gonna plant more acres and have a big yield??? We can control the price we get by NOT planting that many acres. What do you think new crop corn would be trading at if they knew we were only gonna plant 92-94 million acres instead of 98-100 million acres? A hell of a LOT higher than it is now. By keeping the carryout under a billion bu in corn and 150 in the beans we'll have high prices.
Anonymous on 2/16/2013 9:59:00 AM
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Corn has just had the longest decline in 32 years. March corn has gone down 46 cents in two weeks.
Yet you say that corn remains range bound.
Anonymous on 2/16/2013 9:05:00 AM
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Bryce I have a great marketing plan. If the prices I am being offered aren't what they should be I put the grain in my storage bin. I can generally pay for the additional storage in short order, generally 1 to 2 years. You are left with an asset that will last you a life time and its great for the economy. It leaves you with an asset and its great for the economy, The farmer is left with more money to spend and you are creating employment buy creating a demand for storage facilities and employment for the people who erect the facility. The other way the commercials pocket the profit and your adviser makes a nice profit off the farmer.
Anonymous on 2/15/2013 3:01:00 PM
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Bryce your ignorance is starting to show again. This idea there is a lot of feed wheat in the world is suspect. Why if this is the case didn't S Korea get 0 response to there latest tender for feed wheat and barley. You would think if there is a abundance of feed wheat countries would scrambling to sell. All the supposed corn the producers have in the northern corn thats no problem just give Cargill a call they are haveing a tuff time sourceing corn for there feedlots. There problem can be quickly solved and is no problem at all
Anonymous on 2/15/2013 8:28:00 AM
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Bryce, Are DDG's figured into the corn export numbers? Sounds like China buys alot of it
Anonymous on 2/14/2013 8:02:00 AM
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Basis continues to firm as farmers refuse to sell. Cash should remain strong into the growing season. But remember, there's a lot of low quality wheat around the world that's being fed. While on-farm supplies of corn are tight in some areas, you might be surprised to hear I've talked to other growers, especially those in northern areas of the CB, who are worried about all the corn they still have stored. This year is yet another illustration of the importance of having a written marketing plan based on financial objectives, so you don't get frustrated when the market doesn't do what you want it to.
-- Bryce
Anonymous on 2/13/2013 11:34:00 AM
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I figure DDGSs into my calculations of ethanol processor margins. Ethanol plants saying they can't source corn means they can't buy it for a price they want.
-- Bryce
Anonymous on 2/13/2013 11:26:00 AM
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Hello Wilian from Tibagi! We were fascinated to say the least by your agriculture. I posted some stories online at http://farmfutures.com/ffNowPage.aspx
and will put up some videos in a week or two.
--Bryce
Anonymous on 2/13/2013 11:19:00 AM
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Bring back Arlin
Anonymous on 2/13/2013 7:45:00 AM
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There were 200 million tons of corn December 1st and South America will produce 100 million tons. Consumption is about 2.4 million tons/day. When will we run out of corn?
Anonymous on 2/12/2013 9:08:00 AM
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I want to know where all the wheat acre are going to come from
Dennis on 2/12/2013 8:22:00 AM
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farmers keep your bins closed. THERE IS NOWAY SAmerica is going to raise this massive crop. The only ones that believe it are the analysts and they are controlled buy the commercials Arlin was the only one who seemed to know what was going on and he had to leave. Canada will be out of wheat shortly and barley and oats and is out of canola so keep your bins CLOSED. You can control the real market
Anonymous on 2/11/2013 7:56:00 AM
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Att: Farmers with old crop in storage. Keep it in the bin as long as you can!
Anonymous on 2/8/2013 5:35:00 AM
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I have been through the whole content of this blog which is very informative and knowledgeable stuff, I would like to visit again.
yepi on 2/6/2013 9:53:00 PM
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Instead of talking about demand destruction I think the story is instead, the lack of supply. You simply can't sell what you don't have so instead of talking about lack of demand you should simply tell the truth and say there simply isn't the supply of corn at any price.
Anonymous on 2/6/2013 7:39:00 AM
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Basis figures for anywhere are available at Growersedge.com
Anonymous on 2/4/2013 9:51:00 AM
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Hello, so, you came to Brazil got almost 1 week, so you came to Tibagi, for you remember better, you staied in the hotel (Itagy) I work, so, what do you think about ours farms and what do you think bout Brazil?
Wilian
Anonymous on 2/3/2013 2:23:00 PM
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Do you remember when Corn prices traded higher than Wheat prices in the futures market?
http://kizi-1.kizi2.com | http://www.zizigames.org
Anonymous on 2/2/2013 9:36:00 AM
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After talking to a friend that manages an ethanol plant, the reason for the shut downs is NOT poor margins. It's because they cannot source corn supplies. When the media talks about poor margins they do not consider what the plants recieve for the dried DDG's that they sell, for which there is HIGH demand. He reminds me that because of the BS USDA production numbers for the last three years, there is a "precieved" amply supply of corn, which there is NOT!
Anonymous on 2/1/2013 12:22:00 PM
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Paul's handling the daily comments while I'm in Brazil, but I respond to a few of the questions.
I don't track Fargo, but you can get current prices and some historical charts at https://www.pioneer.com/home/site/us/markets-analysis/commodity-futures-cash/local-cash-markets/
As for the China prices, I just convert bushels to tons and adjust for yuan dollar fix. Prices are to show what's happening. I keep a price with transportation costs figured in too, but that's not the point of quoting their price.
Corn and soybeans look good here, though some of the beans could use a drink. Remember, though, this is one little part of the country. Looking at a field in Ohio might not tell you much about North Dakota. Farmers here appear more concerned about transportation costs. Getting all those beans from Mato Grosso will be a challenge, but it's a challenge every year. Expect to hear a lot of horror stories in the mean time, about trucks backed up for 50 miles, and ships facing two-month delays to load at the ports. Watch the old crop, new crop spread. When it starts to head south it's a sign the end user feels comfortable with his supply for the back end of the marketing year.
-- Bryce
Anonymous on 2/1/2013 1:13:00 AM
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I don't see how anyone can hedge with futures. The floor traders are gunning for every position taken, and don't care if they have to move the market 30 cents to hit the stops.
Anonymous on 1/31/2013 6:44:00 PM
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Hedging comes at a premium,I don't bother with it.I buy crop insurance and that's it.The world needs food and the weather has everyone spooked.All my suppliers are greedy,so I'm greedy too. So far so good.
Anonymous on 1/30/2013 10:36:00 AM
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If the mill was concerned about the price of grain rising before it could buy some in the cash market, it would establish a hedge by buying futures. After buying the grain in the cash market it would cancel the hedge by selling the futures position. The futures market would certainly know of farmer selling as buyers exit their hedges by selling futures.
Anonymous on 1/29/2013 8:22:00 PM
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The cash market knows how tight the stocks are, thats why they are higher. The futures markets is BS! Ever see someone say the market is going down because of farmer selling? Thats BS too! When we sell to the mill, the futures market has no clue! Thats a fact, as I have worked for the mill. The contract is between the farmer and mill, nobody else. Once its filled it goes in the file cabinet. They don't send it to chicago!
In the next decade, I look for the young farmers to organize and put the BS out for everyone to see. The ball has always been in our court, it's time to run with it. Set our own prices!
Anonymous on 1/29/2013 8:04:00 AM
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Bryce, When you convert soybean prices in China (yuan/metric ton) to CBOT equivalent (USD/bushel) do you adjust for quality and/or transportation cost? Probably not. But please share the kg/bushel conversion factor you use, because even different moisture contents can throw off the analysis.
Anonymous on 1/25/2013 10:58:00 AM
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can anybody tell me why elevators are paying above the futures for corn and soybeans when they simply buy a futures contract and take delivery? I have asked a number of analysts and nobody responds to the question.
Anonymous on 1/25/2013 10:34:00 AM
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Bryce, could you please tell me where I could find basis figures for the Fargo, ND area? Thanks
Anonymous on 1/25/2013 9:20:00 AM
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I read recently that Japan has imported a record amount of DDGs. If this is correct, are we ahead of the pace in corn shipments, just in a different form. What is the impact to corn if the ethanol system slows down and those DDGs are not available for export. Steve, Ontario Canada
Anonymous on 1/23/2013 7:20:00 AM
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To see all the delivery points for all the CBOT crop contracts, check out this Excel file. It is updated every afternoon around 4 p.m.
http://www.cmegroup.com/market-data/reports/deliverable-commodities-under-registration.xls
We'll have word on the website and in the magazine when the next round of tours are planned. I'm really looking forward to it!
Don't believe conspiracy theories. Total waste of time. If anyone actually knew, they'd kill him.
-- Bryce
Anonymous on 1/15/2013 5:39:00 AM
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I see you are going to Brazil at the end of this month. Are you planning for another trip next year as I want to go?
Howard Kayser
kayserh@ncn.net
Anonymous on 1/15/2013 2:40:00 AM
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I had a friend talk to a BOT trader and he contends the Feds (and funds) are trying to keep corn prices under $8 due to inflation worries.
Anonymous on 1/14/2013 9:36:00 AM
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Delivery points mostly are along the Illinois River for corn and soybeans. Corn traded higher than wheat in both June-July 2011 and at several points in Jan-May 2012.
-- Bryce
Anonymous on 1/14/2013 9:07:00 AM
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Here in SE Colo., we have no subsoil moisture whatsoever. People who are chiseling to keep their ground from blowing are bringing up no clods. We are starting into our 13th year of drought, due to diminishing moisture amounts over the last 12 yrs. Dec. 19, 2012 and yesterday, Jan. 11, 2013, we had terribly hard winds with zero visibility much of the afternoon. Unless the weather pattern changes and we start to receive moisture, there will be no wheat harvest in 2013, which includes a very large area, not only SE CO.
Phyllis on 1/12/2013 8:41:00 AM
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read and reap....we are at the mercy of China or any large buyer ..and ports to ship...and labor to load and unload and ships that need fuel..and compressed natural gas... and the wind and rain good soils...and Wall Street and Chicago and other paper stores. Pound of gold for a quart of barley. Wrote that 2 thousand years ago. 2 months of food storage for this whole earth doesn't sound good.
Mel on 1/12/2013 7:04:00 AM
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where ever anyone buy grain it;s still only so much and it's gone
Anonymous on 1/11/2013 8:52:00 PM
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Does anybody know where the delivery points against future contracts?
Anonymous on 1/10/2013 8:47:00 AM
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Egypt is the strangest country. Just a few days ago they said they had enough wheat till summer know I see they issued another tender. When will the traders wake up.
Anonymous on 1/10/2013 7:53:00 AM
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Hi Bryce!
Do you remember when Corn prices traded higher than Wheat prices in the futures market? I was trying to remember when but could not recall if it was last year or 2011. Thank you!
jon
Anonymous on 1/9/2013 10:01:00 AM
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I think we are in agreement on the whole. The general uncertainty in the markets is moving funds to the sideline, or encourging them to take profits before first of the year. In eaither case they are moving. No question that the Chinese are working the market right now as they take advantage of and accelerate an opportunity. - Paul Burgener
Anonymous on 12/20/2012 3:06:00 PM
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Paul you said this a.m. the grains were lower because of concerns about the fiscal ect. If that's true why is the stock market in rally mode? The real reason the grains are selling off is because of the funds. China cancles beans (only to buy them back at a cheaper price) & manipulates the market. Tell the truth next time & please spare us the BS about the fiscal cliff. It's getting real old.
Anonymous on 12/20/2012 12:42:00 PM
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Hey Brice! Any snow we get out here in western Kansas is not going to stay on wheat fields and provide protection when the wind blows 50 to 60 mph. It could be very hard on it as the wheat only has a tap root and no crown roots anchoring it. It may leave the field with the snow and dirt blowing.
Anonymous on 12/19/2012 7:58:00 AM
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And 13 corn may well be need for 12.
Anonymous on 12/13/2012 5:12:00 PM
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short crop three years in a row used 12 corn to get through 11 think about it
Anonymous on 12/11/2012 10:21:00 AM
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"Bottom line: Slow export demand is beginning a real concern" beginning or becoming?
Anonymous on 12/11/2012 8:16:00 AM
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Check out the Drought Monitor for latest conditions. http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/
Market always focuses on demand in winter. Focus shifts to supply once growing season arrives, which is when we could see the move.
-- Bryce
Anonymous on 12/10/2012 5:59:00 PM
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Bryce, some mention may be warranted about the very low moisture conditions in the rest of the midwest also. The west is horribly dry going into winter but so is Indiana and I'm sure more states in the heart of the midwest. This was neglected in early 2012 and the outcome was a 25% drop in production of corn. It may not deserve a panic alert yet, however, it deserves research and comment. It is very difficult to recharge subsoil moisture levels in the winter. This means we need very, very, timely rains next growing season ( low odds ) or a spring flood that will delay planting or flood young crops. Lets not get so caught up in a demand and forget about the next supply cycle.
Anonymous on 12/10/2012 10:09:00 AM
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$8+ corn is still possible, but without bullish Jan. 11 USDA report, last hope for it may be in late spring/early summer on lingering drought in western CB. That's a long time to store with no carry.
-- Bryce
Anonymous on 12/10/2012 8:15:00 AM
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Everybody needs to read the 10% sit it a side comments on Paul page!!! I agree and will do it.
Anonymous on 12/6/2012 10:46:00 AM
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Good overview of the fiscal cliff and agriculture here:
http://farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2012/12/us-fiscal-cliff-and-us-agriculture.html
Anonymous on 12/6/2012 9:39:00 AM
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I remember the years when wet weather delayed planting and the markets panicked higher.This past spring saw planting completed in record time,markets responded lower.I wonder if the market is now a little wiser,considering the yield results.Don't trust the weather.
Anonymous on 12/5/2012 6:09:00 AM
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I keep holding out on selling more corn because I think the markets will once again rally to the $8.00 (local prices) range. How realistic is this thinking?
Anonymous on 12/4/2012 9:33:00 PM
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What effect can the fiscal cliff have on the commodity markets?
Anonymous on 12/4/2012 9:26:00 PM
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Corn and soybeans are going to crash due to South American production. williamwandrews@bellsouth.net
Anonymous on 12/2/2012 9:04:00 AM
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The road to the poor house is filled with folks who didn't believe the Gov't crop report
Anonymous on 11/18/2012 5:20:00 PM
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Murphy's Law applies to trading, for sure!
-- Bryce
Anonymous on 11/15/2012 7:33:00 AM
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The market you trade dictates how close you put your stops. What I have found is if you use a stop when trading futures, the floor traders will push the markets until you are stoped-out. Especially if you don't have enough lead during a low volume day! I am not saying don't use stops, because they for sure will save you from getting killed! Its just a rule of thumb for me, if I take a future position, always buy a put or call option.
Anonymous on 11/14/2012 7:23:00 AM
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Think about using a short-term options position instead of a stop, at least for a day or two, to avoid getting whipsawed.
-- Bryce
Anonymous on 11/13/2012 8:51:00 AM
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got the prices right for to day what do you use .50 $ leeway???????????????????
Anonymous on 11/12/2012 6:13:00 PM
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Regarding the Iraqi Dinar - In a word; "No."
In two words; "H*** NO!"
Google "Dinar revaluation hoax"
Anonymous on 11/12/2012 7:55:00 AM
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This has nothing to do with grain marketing directly, but has anyone here ever heard of the iraqi Dinar. A neighbor of mine has some from when he was on tour with the marines there and says they are going to revalue and jump start the economy. Any truth to this?
Anonymous on 11/7/2012 1:15:00 PM
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Rally hopes over winter depend on two factors. First, will stocks of exportable wheat around the world get tight enough to finally stimulate export demand. Second, will concerns over hard red winter wheat crop on northern half lf Plains be enough to rally market before crop actually emerges from dormancy. Initial crop ratings were the lowest in the 27 years USDA has been publishing them at least for the first weeks of the season. I look for prices to finally start moving higher into Jan USDA report, but draatically so.
-- Bryce
Anonymous on 11/1/2012 10:45:00 AM
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Aussie grain grower here - realistically what can propel CBOT wheat any higher between now and April 2013
Anonymous on 11/1/2012 6:00:00 AM
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Whether it comes from the U.S. or somewhere else, corn is corn - threre's only so much in the world. The only difference is psycological.
Anonymous on 10/24/2012 9:46:00 AM
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need a boat here in MI to get the rest of these crops off we have had so much rain.
Anonymous on 10/23/2012 7:34:00 PM
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Just drove from Herkermer, NY along the "Great West Way" along the Mohawk River Valley on NYS Thruway Route 90 and Route 87 to New York City. Why aren't NY Farmers harvesting their Corn? It's all dryed up. At first I thought it was probably just used for feed but then I saw the extent of it and it's throughout the state.
Anonymous on 10/23/2012 6:06:00 PM
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I agree with the idea that weigh wagons increase profitability. Anyone who believes that bean yields need to be adjusted upward needs a July vacation in bean production areas of MO where temperatures were commonly 105 to 109 every day. Five to ten degrees in daytime highs makes the difference between night and day in yield. Thanks only to the strange occurrance of 18 inches of rain in the past two months, the beans here could go 25. Many acres actually died by mid August. We NEVER get the kind of yields the cooler and usually wetter north country enjoys. 40 bushels here is a one in 15 dream yield. All of this must be averaged in and once done, the numbers will not add up. Always the best possible senereo is painted and rarely achieved.
Anonymous on 10/18/2012 9:47:00 AM
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All I'm saying, USDA, traders, analyist and market watchers never listen or ask the people that actually produce. I guess I now nothing as a producer with 27 years of actual production history and personally going over every acre 5-6 times in a producing year. I get real tired of hearing onlookers tell me what I already know and try my best to report to the onlookers. I fully realize USDA rules, but surely by now most have realized they are full of crap. Why can't the people that actually produce have a say so in projected production??? If I produced steel (which no body does in the US anymore) or textiles (which no body does in the US anymore) I would think people would ask me my production instead of telling me my production. Worse yet, when I say what is actually happening I get told (as an actual producer) that I don't know what I'm talking about.
Anonymous on 10/16/2012 9:31:00 PM
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For the guy in SC nebraska whose beans made 93, that' s bunk , how many acres where in the pivot when you planted it , and how many when you harvested. Secondly did you tell your landlord what they made. I live in SC nebraska too and unless you are using a Pioneer weigh wagon I would highly doubt your figures.
Anonymous on 10/16/2012 8:01:00 AM
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It dont matter if Bryce or anyone at FF say the yeild on soys are low ( i mean he can tell u if thats what you want to hear but) its the USDA, they have the final say on yeild, prices and exports. When are producers going to learn the USDA is the middle man between farmers here and China. USDA will make it possible for them to buy all they want because we have such a huge crop here and when there gone next spring / summer we will be importing from Brazil.
Anonymous on 10/15/2012 2:21:00 PM
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I'll be surveying producers again in about a month when harvest is complete, which will provide more information about whether the trend you cite is widespread. Until then, I base my forecast on the weekly crop ratings, which involve 5,000 observers around the country. Agree or disagree with them, but they're the only only thing remotely close to good sample. I've learned not to base my opinion on what's happening in my back yard or by listening to anecdotal reports. Thanks for your input, and we'll see what happens.
-- Bryce
Anonymous on 10/15/2012 1:45:00 PM
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Bryce, Unfortunately the current senerio your reporting is once again similar to last spring. In May and June you where regurgitating the uninformed trade opinion of the weather and future price range. All the while I was trying to tell you and Farm Futures that without very timely rains we were in trouble due to our subsoil conditions and already horribly short rainfall. Finally in July you and the trade started to figure out what many producers already knew (and warned about) for two months. Your doing it again with soybean yield. Some areas, and the best soils, are yielding close to average, but far more are way under. I'm saying 20 plus bu. under average or about 50-60% of average. These beans are not a local problem but rather everywhere the drought was a major problem (in other words a huge area). These beans have just recently been ready for harvest due to the green stems and leaves so they are just now being fully realized. Please listen to producers and not the uninformed trade again. The current USDA bean yield is to high and definately can't justify a revision higher. At least comment on the fact that until more is known, everyone should consider the USDA bean yield as high enough with a revision either way and potential quality issues affecting crush yields. I wonder if their is any other type of product production where the Govt. and analyst tell those producers what their production is and never listen to the actual producers. Damn, it gets old.
Anonymous on 10/15/2012 8:39:00 AM
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I cut a pivot of beans in south central Nebraska with 50.8 bph corners, 93.5 bph under the pivot and 58 pound test weight. They were planted may 10 th. I had another field replanted June 10 th that was cut yesterday, they made in the 70's. I have one more field of replant to havest, but the moisture is 25%. My neighbor's yields have been in the 80's.
Anonymous on 10/12/2012 9:03:00 AM
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Holding any beans that I hadn't contracted until market realizes that the only beans remaining probably shouldn't even be harvested. As it was, between green stem syndrome and over-dry beans in pods shattering, our yield in one field only averaged 28 bpa. My other field yielded 55 bpa but it was the one that received some rain. In both cases, harvesting was delayed due to green stem and the beans bounced off the combine windshield during combining due to overdry pods. USDA will wake up but this time I am waiting to get my money - I can outwait their inaccuracies now. In fact I plan to outwait them all of next crop season. I have sold too cheap for the last time, USDA - so keep your reports - last one was half-lies not totally false but I have gotten smarter and don't believe any of it anymore.
Anonymous on 10/12/2012 8:28:00 AM
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Soybean yield will prove to be to high. All beans still in the field that where planted in April are very low yielding with most having quality issues. This is not a small problem and will eventually be proven. The best yielding beans have been combined with the ugly stuff yet to be realized.
Anonymous on 10/11/2012 8:20:00 AM
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http://www.usda.gov/wps/portal/usda/usdahome?navid=AGENCY_REPORTS
This site has upcoming releases and a link to a calendar view.
Anonymous on 10/2/2012 7:19:00 AM
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someone could please give me a link for a commodities calendar? I can´t find one calendar in which appears the dates of the reports and that kind of information. I tried google but I couldn´t find one.
Thanks
Anonymous on 10/1/2012 9:08:00 PM
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I put the charts online every Monday afternoon.
http://farmfutures.com/customPage.aspx?p=170
--Bryce
Anonymous on 9/27/2012 9:42:00 AM
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Bryce, I'm interested to find out more about how your State and National models forecast corn and bean yields. Is there an article posted online?
Anonymous on 9/27/2012 6:26:00 AM
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The information submitted by NOAA says that Brazil has recieved between 30 to 50 % of normal rainfall while Argentina in spots has recieved 150% of normal thus far.
Anonymous on 9/25/2012 7:22:00 PM
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Beans in Indiana will not ripen correctly. Green leaves and stems and mature pods splitting open. Pay close attention to the bean harvest progress. It will slow to a crawl soon due to this problem. Beans with this problem are of the 20 bu. yield. Quality is horrible too. Lots of dockage due to wierd looking shriveled beans. I assume it will affect the bean oil production.
Anonymous on 9/25/2012 6:03:00 PM
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The information that I have on South American growing conditions is similiar to Bryce, wetter conditions in Argetina (much improved over last season), and Brazil growing conditions (except for the northeast growing region) are improved over previous season.
Anonymous on 9/25/2012 9:03:00 AM
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Bryce you continue to talk about good rains in Brazil. Could you show us the actual amounts and area coverage
Anonymous on 9/25/2012 8:02:00 AM
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I find your comments about S American rain very misleading. could you verify actual amounts and area covered because my maps show very little rainfall and very small area. Don't rely on radar images
Anonymous on 9/24/2012 8:09:00 AM
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Irrigated corn in Nebraska is well in to the 200+ bushel mark. Most farmers have switched to beans and I talked to the local agronomist yesterday. He said most of his client's irrigated beans are making 60-80 bushels. The dry land corners are making 0-35, with isolated areas making much more. The dry land corn is making from 0-35 on corn on corn and corn on beans acres. Ecofallow (corn behind last years wheat) is making 35-100+. The big question is- are there enough irrigated acres, nationally, to bring the average up to usda's estimate?
Anonymous on 9/19/2012 8:15:00 AM
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Contacted bushels delivered, bins will be filled and locked shut! End users better take advantage of corn and beans ON SALE now! I don't want to read any wining 2 months from now.
Anonymous on 9/17/2012 10:14:00 AM
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Just thought that i would let you know that here in the UK we have had all your missing rain to give us the wettest summer in 100 years. Thanks a lot! As a result we have had terrible disease problems (5 fungicde applications were not enough) and our yields are down by 20-30% which will be a loss of at least 3 million tons nationally, bushel weights are down from an average 74-76 Kg to 62-68Kg. Still the price is good and we can do the usual farmer thing of being confident that next year can only be better.
Ed from England
Anonymous on 9/14/2012 10:21:00 AM
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We live in Western Ia., corn here is averaging 100-110. Where is USDA getting those numbers for yields? Neighbor had some 85 bu. corn.
Anonymous on 9/12/2012 8:56:00 AM
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A mini-max is a cash contract tied to the sale of a call and the purchase of a put. The short call caps the maximum selling price; the long put establishes a floor under the market.
-- Bryce
Anonymous on 9/9/2012 10:11:00 PM
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what is a min max comtract?
Anonymous on 9/5/2012 2:07:00 PM
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Wow, somebody is rubbed a litle raw. Let go of the past, as it cannot be changed or corrected. Forgive and remember. Thats all. Have a great day! DLS
Anonymous on 8/30/2012 7:18:00 AM
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the big reason the family farmer feed lots are all empty in mn is and was that stupid dairy bonanza of 1980s Hilary Clinton fame , Jerry Brown , go Graham fame and alll the martha stewwart crooks of democrat fame !!! with there insider bullfertilizer, and insider trading fame !!! remember the 12 day limit down cattle market of march of 1980!!!! that is twenty bucks in one week limit down at 17.5% intrest rates!! that broke all the 4-5 head feedlots in one sweep never to recover, ever they are still paying off those loans with after tax income on a 7.00 an hrr job. so don; t bitch about those pampered cattle feeders!!!
Anonymous on 8/28/2012 12:29:00 PM
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Well, that is a twist of my explaination. What I am describing is I own the land, you make the crops, we split the production right in half. That is much different than an FSA yield. And this is an age old deal that still goes on today, everywhere. Both parties are dependent upon the yield harvested. the farmer does not pay any rent for the land, directly.
Anonymous on 8/17/2012 7:22:00 AM
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I have never seen a rental agreement or heard of one before where the landowner automatically receives bare minimum 50 percent of the FSA yeild. In this case that would be 75 bu/acre no matter what happens. Using this spring prices that would be $405 an acre rent. Using this November's prices it is over $565 an acre. That is gambling.
Anonymous on 8/15/2012 10:27:00 AM
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That is an age old deal, thats all. I own the land, you make the crops, we split it in half. Thats all. Been around for years and years. DLS
Anonymous on 8/14/2012 7:29:00 AM
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Gambling? How is this for gambling, I just received termination notice on 360 acres for next year. The new tenant is signed to a five year lease at 50 percent of production and the laqndlord pays NO input costs! That guys is gambling.
Anonymous on 8/13/2012 3:17:00 PM
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Sorry, I don't follow oats enough to be able to comment on them. Most people by me just bale them.
-- Bryce
Anonymous on 8/13/2012 8:03:00 AM
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Gambling? maybe or maybe not. The USDA predicting a all time high of 166 bu. Nat. ave. while we planted the most all time acres to corn is a gamble. If I would have projected my all time best corn yield while planting more corn (good and bad ground) I think my lender would have questioned my logic. The fact you questioned USDA logic is certainly acceptable. If only all would have done so.
Anonymous on 8/11/2012 2:07:00 PM
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I realize 2012 could have gone much worse for me after reading and hearing the stories from others.I accept that good luck is a gift and to prepare for bad luck.My friend believed the USDA's 14B bushel projections and forward sold most of his crop.Turned out to be all of his crop and then some.My plan worked out but I am being rewarded for gambling.I'll continue to buy insurance in the future and remember that this year could have been much different.
Anonymous on 8/11/2012 7:57:00 AM
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Mr. North Wisconsin, I will have my worst production this year in Indiana but I certainly do not begrudge you one bit. I believe I had my turn in 1992 or 93 when the Mississippi flooded. Many devastation west caused 61 bu. av. beans for me and I cleaned up. A guy needs those once in a while. Maybe I need to help you harvest so I can remember what corn is suppose to look llike.
Anonymous on 8/10/2012 9:23:00 AM
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Bryce, can you post your thoughts on the oats yields listed below. Thanks
Anonymous on 8/8/2012 9:04:00 AM
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Up nortyh in Wisconsin around the Green Bay area, the corn is the best that I have ever seen in my entire farming career. Plenty of timely rains, just big beautiful corn, huge cobs. Excellent!!! It is going to be an extremely profitable year, mostly due to everybody elses bad luck of no rain. But here the corn and beans are awesome!!!! I know that this is hard to read, but it sure is nice to type it, and write it! :)
Anonymous on 8/8/2012 7:20:00 AM
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I delivered my oats from a 25 acre field, which fetched a price of $4.25 a bushel. Net wt. delivered was 43,100#/32=1346.88 bu.
Grades= 34 lb. bu. wt. 13.75% mois. 2.6% f.m.
1346.88 total bu.
- 53.88 mois. shrink
- 35.02 f.m. (weed seed)
*******************
1257.98 bu @ $4.25 bu= $5346.42
Is this a good price? How is the yield? Feed back desired. Thanks
Anonymous on 8/8/2012 7:16:00 AM
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What about oats? How are they priced? The local mill by me in Pulaski Wisconsin is paying $4.25 a bushel delivered to them. Is that a good price for a farmer to recieve?
Anonymous on 8/6/2012 7:30:00 AM
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Chances of an embargo: zero to none.
Bryce
Anonymous on 8/3/2012 2:10:00 PM
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Hi, Im in South Africa and would like to know what time the corn market opens again tomorrow? I took a position and need to know what time I must set my alarm!!!!!
Anonymous on 8/1/2012 2:13:00 PM
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The embargo is a sure thing from what I can find out.
Anonymous on 7/30/2012 7:49:00 AM
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Talk of an embargo and ethanol RFS reduction is wishful thinking by one side of the market.When we experience reduced yields we expect to be compensated with higher prices.Areas unaffected by the drought will probably experience lower basis offers at harvest,reflecting transportation costs to end users.There may be some surprises at harvest.Let the market do its job.
Anonymous on 7/28/2012 8:17:00 AM
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O good back to the Carter years
Anonymous on 7/27/2012 10:05:00 PM
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How strong is this talk of an embargo?
Anonymous on 7/27/2012 9:59:00 PM
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Next USDA report out Aug. 10. Farm Futures releases results of its latest production survey Aug. 3. Thanks for the reminder about limits. I'm still stuck in the days when they were less than a dime. -- Bryce
Anonymous on 7/27/2012 9:26:00 AM
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But we're the ample supply go
Anonymous on 7/26/2012 6:22:00 PM
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I'm not a cattle-feeder but I have some sympathy for them.I can't buy rain any more than they can buy feed.If it doesn't exist you can't buy it,at any price.
Anonymous on 7/24/2012 4:14:00 PM
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Just once I would like someone take the farmers side of the ethanol debate. Finally the price of corn is up where it should be!!!!! The beef industry turns into a bunch of crybabies every time the price of feed increases. Like any other industry the final price, beef in this case, is passed along to the consumer.
Anonymous on 7/24/2012 12:20:00 PM
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When does the next USDA report come out with the latest bpa and harvested acre numbers?
Anonymous on 7/24/2012 8:16:00 AM
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The corn limits for CBT corn are 40 cents, not 30. Thanks
Anonymous on 7/23/2012 7:57:00 AM
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Does the trade really believe rain this week will help the corn? This sell off will just move more corn to demand. Even USDA math should be pointing to billions in shortage. Really traders? Doesn't anyone have the forsight or ta' tas to stay long?
Anonymous on 7/23/2012 7:35:00 AM
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It could rain 15 in. between now and harvest and dryland corn would still only be silage. Too much pollination stress.
Anonymous on 7/19/2012 8:06:00 AM
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Living in southwest mn our crop was probably the best in the nation. Now without rain for one month and high temps our corn and soybeans are going down hill fast. So sad to watch!
Anonymous on 7/19/2012 7:51:00 AM
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We have been producing above the mandated level but for 2012 won't exceed the RFS. I don't think the EPA will waive the mandate, but there is potential for blenders to use the RINS they've accumulated for exceeding the mandate in the past. These are traded so it may be a way to get around the mandate in 2012. I don't expect a major reduction; rather, all consumers of corn will have to rationed.
-- Bryce
Anonymous on 7/17/2012 9:17:00 AM
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I seen a recent report that the dreaded ethanol saved gas consumers $1.07 per gallon last year. I agree that some true rationing needs to take place but maybe we ought to look at the China demand first. What is better, save ourselves or feed china what they want and obviousley can still pay for (thanks to our consumers here in the US).
Anonymous on 7/16/2012 5:18:00 PM
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Ethanol should be banned
Anonymous on 7/16/2012 3:43:00 PM
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Well, the world now has the bad information that is only going to get worse. What will this disaster do to our future view of grain production? Since dirt farmers finally made some money the last few years I've been hearing us villianized by many. Even by politicians in the new farm bill debate. Hopefully this will help agriculture gain some respect. On the other side it may bring back the govt. telling us what and how much to plant with more oversite and control. I'll just hope for the more respect part.
Anonymous on 7/12/2012 12:30:00 PM
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Bryce or Arlan, you guys are good at figuring things up. There has been a lot of talk about the possibility of reducing or eliminating the ethanol mandate. How much of this years ethanol production goes to the mandate? I'm having a hard time coming up with the answer but it appears we produce a bundle more than what the mandate consumes. Am I wrong? Thanks
Anonymous on 7/10/2012 5:45:00 PM
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% of soybeans blooming is around 10 days faster than last year, FYI, at least nationally.
-- Bryce
Anonymous on 7/10/2012 11:05:00 AM
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From other sources I'm hearing of a potential seasonal top being made. If that happens than the market has once again failed in doing its job. I do appreciate your more realistic 138 bu. Nat. Yield Bryce and WE WILL be much lower when the smoke clears. Corn potential is absolutely done and the best corn in the huge drought area will be very low yielding. I don't understand how the market can bank on 166 bu. corn before the planters hit the field but are so reluctant to see proof in front of their eyes. Keep in mind that the crop conditions are only looking at the plant health which is tainted by our genectics. The ears are horrible on even the better looking corn. 120 bu. Nat. Ave. is the best we will see and the market HAS to realize that and do it's job. A few corn imports or poor weekly exports is a drop in the hat of what has to be done.
Anonymous on 7/10/2012 10:04:00 AM
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Check some ears that have not pollinated yet, we are finding only 12 and 14 rows on the ear if they do get pollinated and fill out there still is a big cutback in yield just having less rows.
Anonymous on 7/9/2012 8:15:00 AM
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really Arlin no damage in Russia! Not from what I see and hear.
Anonymous on 7/9/2012 8:08:00 AM
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Bryce, Please correct your statement that August is the reproductive month for soybeans. It is definately July this year due to our growing degrees and early emergence. I have beans podding currently in north half of Indiana, not excited about it but I do. I am starting to hear and read about worsening demand and the potential of a high being made. This is exactly what should be happening because we are obviously going to have very poor production. Poorer production than what the market has come to grasp fully. Lower exports and ethonal demand is needed in a much bigger way than what we are seeing currently to make this work this year. I just don't want the traders thinking beans have plenty of time and they have done their job yet in curtailing demand through corn price.
Anonymous on 7/6/2012 1:27:00 PM
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July will be the reproductive month for soybeans this year, not August.
Anonymous on 7/5/2012 9:11:00 AM
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This is Arlan commenting. I'm filling in for Bryce over the last half of June while he gets some time away from the markets. I wanted to provide some clarity on corn demand, which averages roughly 245 million bushels per week for the current marketing year. However, the last weeks ahead of harvest will see the lowest usage numbers, simply because we're running out of bushels and those last remaining bushels are becoming too expensive. As such, exports are slowing and ethanol plants are showing down.
There's no doubt that the crop is a disaster in the southern Midwest and looks fantastic in Minnesota and surrounding areas, with a mix in between. We have estimated the crop at 156.9 bushels per acre based on Monday's ratings, but we could be getting much closer to 150 bushels by next Monday if the current weather pattern holds, with a sub-150 yield a legitimate threat. Every bushel below USDA's estimated yield drops the size of the crop about 90 million bushels. Get much more detailed real-time market information from my Twitter feed through the day at www.twitter.com/ArlanFF101.
Arlan on 6/28/2012 1:35:00 PM
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I added a comment 6-1-12 about the dry weather problems and how it needed more attention or at least concern. 6-25-12 the market and all analyst are freaking out about the weather and crop conditions. I know us farmers are known to always be overly concerned with weather, but da!!!! sometimes the people that produce should be listened to a little closer. Mother Nature is going to hand alot of analyst and traders their head this season because they had their head to far up the European thing and used USDA crap as bible.
Anonymous on 6/25/2012 4:15:00 PM
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rain in two weeks lot of good that will do corn turning gray now dead by then
Anonymous on 6/21/2012 9:07:00 AM
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early you said we would need 375m bu for the last 30 days of the year now you say we use 374m a week witch is it ??????????????????????
Anonymous on 6/21/2012 8:58:00 AM
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Bryce, Thank you for your comments on the shortage of rain in many areas. I am seriously concerned if mother nature will salvage the corn crop in my area. When I say salvage, I mean just that. My area is usually above the national average by 20-40 bu. I have grave concerns we will not break 100 bpa without a huge shift in the weather pattern and right now. Not next week or the week after.
Anonymous on 6/18/2012 10:17:00 AM
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This morning the reports came out showing corn sales last week poor to say the least. Soybean sales fantastic, crush fantastic, oil stocks down. China importing more than last mo.. Weather hot and dry with the chance of precep. falling and the quant. expected lower. Yet my last check of the markets show corn up .08 and beans down .22. I know the bean crop has a lot more time to recover from dry weather. It looks like fund. the reverse should be true.
Anonymous on 6/14/2012 1:57:00 PM
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Bryce, Please put the word out to the traders you know to watch the weather extremely close. A shower or two is not going to be the save all. My area and most area's had fantastic early planting conditions which is why we are not seeing even more crop deteriation. The cooler weather is helping to hide a major problem. Make no mistake, vast area's are extremely deficit in subsoil moisture. This crop will only survive and produce from very timely rains. That means weekly good rains without one miss.
Anonymous on 6/8/2012 11:46:00 AM
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We're relying on the daily blog from Kansas Wheat, which has shown varied results. My yield model shows production down 70 million bushels in Kansas from original estimates, but my estimate for hard red winter wheat total is at the low end of trade guesses. We'll find out Tuesday. Thanks for the update.
Bryce on 6/7/2012 11:25:00 AM
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I farm 25 miles S.E. of Dodge City, Ks. and all I hear or read is that wheat yeilds across the state have been better than expected. Well I know of several farmers around here that have cut most of their wheat and haven't had anything make it out of the 20's. I know it can't be any better as you go west, Some reports of these lower yields are only fair and might actually help the market price rather than pressure it.
Anonymous on 6/7/2012 8:12:00 AM
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Hello Bryce and farmfutures staff. Problem seems to fixed. Page looks normal again on Internet Explorer. Thanks everyone.
Anonymous on 6/7/2012 7:12:00 AM
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Good morning, we realize we're having display issues with Bryce's column on the FarmFutures.com page - in Internet Explorer only. We are working to resolve the issue. We apologize for the inconvenience. The page looks fine in Firefox, Chrome and Safari browsers, but we are checking into this and hope to resolve it today. Thanks for your patience - Willie Vogt, Editorial Director.
Willie Vogt on 6/7/2012 5:58:00 AM
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I try to include longer comments and weather maps, etc. in my weekly outlooks. You know, the traders are plugged into what we're saying -- Arlan and I are in the chat rooms with them, and they follow his tweets closely. In the end, it all works out, with the invisible hand of the market doing what it's supposed to do, but day-to-day it takes time. As Arlan is fond of saying (and I know from first hand experience!) the market can stay irrational longer than your ability to stay liquid.
We're working on the formatting problem.
Bryce on 6/6/2012 8:27:00 PM
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I'll have our guys look into it. Sorry for the problem.
Bryce on 6/6/2012 8:21:00 PM
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I do consider all of the concepts you have presented on your post.
They are really convincing and can certainly work. Still, the posts are
very short for starters. May you please lengthen them a bit from subsequent
time? Thank you for the post.
Haight on 6/6/2012 8:44:00 AM
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It's not just your computer, same thing on mine. And yes, it seems to be only Bryce's page that is having problems. Been that way for a couple days...hopefully technical difficulties will be resolved soon.
Anonymous on 6/6/2012 7:46:00 AM
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Your page is missed up on my computer. All of the other pages on your sight come up fine, yours do not fit the page and have a black box running down the left side which make the print nearly impossible to read. I might have done somthing wrong to cause this if you could help would aprciate it. thank you
Anonymous on 6/6/2012 7:01:00 AM
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Bryce, The reason I bring up producers needing help alerting the markets with the weather problem is their is little written about it. Of Farm Futures current eight stories their is "kind of" one about the weather impact on winter wheat. The satelite image you offer is concerning to me if I understand it correctly so that would be a good place to start. From what I understand the Dakotas through much of Ohio is showing little healthy vegetation or crop canopy. Now we all know we are at least three weeks ahead this year so we are really in the 3rd to last week of June "or should be" as far as crop growth. That means corn should be knee to waist high or canopy. The USDA has us offering new corn to market in August and Sept. If I understand the satelite image correctly that certainly is not going to happen or if it does it is going to be because of some low production. That image reminds me of the image of the crop areas of South America you offered some time ago when their was concern of production there. Now we know S.A. production was poor and going lower every week. All I'm saying is we only have people related to Ag production to squawk about this. So please squawk.
Anonymous on 6/2/2012 11:41:00 AM
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Here's what I wrote Friday morning about the weather:
"New crop is being hit with light selling, despite rains that dropped only a quarter to a half inch in many dry parts of Illinois, far from amounts needed to alleviate moisture concerns. Storms are working out of the eastern Corn Belt this morning, with only light rains forecast into next week, according to the five-day coverage map.
Arlan and I have consistently said we don't agree with USDA's forecast for 850 million bushels of 2011 crop carryout. For the past several USDA reports we've stuck to our forecast for 660 million bushels, and have been the lowest estimate in the market issued by analysts surveyed by the major wire services. Arlan's back from a couple days off Monday and we'll put together our next estimates then.
It's frustrating to see markets that aren't behaving the way you want them to or think they should. But the market does what it does, and it's been doing that for the 25 years I've been involved with it. The 10-year Treasury note shouldn't be yielding only 1.45%, but it is. We live in a time of great market volatility, which is why we had $7.9975 corn last summer, and is also why we may see $4.25 corn this fall. Be prepared for both, and make sure your marketing plan can survive either.
Bryce on 6/2/2012 7:09:00 AM
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Local forecast called for a welcome 1 1/2 inch of rain to at least help the crop for maybe a week. We got a widespread .6 tenths. That will help a whopping 3 days since we are now arund 3 1/2 inches since March 1 and we were as dry as I've seen before that. All corn has been in the ear size determine time for some time as it was rolled tight for 12 days straight. I'm in NW Indiana and just talked to a guy that drove here from Arkansas. He said they have been extremely hot and dry and alot of what he seen driving here was the same. To translate for the city dwellers are yards have been brown for 2 weeks in MAY!!! not a dry year August. I know the European financial disaster has things for the big traders to worry about as far as financials, BUT without this huge USDA yield there are alot more things closer to home to have concern or at least throw some weather premium into. I wish Farm Futures and the other close Ag related sites would spend alot more time and research into our weather problems instead of the continual Europe thing. The city traders only have USDA to listen to and we all know how much of a farse it is. A little help here please from the so called Ag sites.
Anonymous on 6/1/2012 12:19:00 PM
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Bryce I find your weather forecasts seem overstate the amount and coverage of rainfall. When you are dry and have above normal temps than 2 tenths of an inch doesn't give you much relief nor does it last long. You tend to give the impression that it is of a major relief. Maybe you should go out and actually raise a crop and get out of the air conditioning.
Anonymous on 5/30/2012 8:19:00 AM
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It won't make a difference right Bryce. Your math is about as good as USDA. First of all you don't have a careover of 850 million and then take another 375 million off the new crop to support the old crop now your next years carry over is way down and then put in a new crop below 161 bu per acre and your carry over becomes tight
Anonymous on 5/30/2012 8:03:00 AM
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Have early corn ever year from the south but this year they are burning up with some of the mid west I know I see it all day every you should start looking for your self don't be leave the people that {pay} you
Anonymous on 5/25/2012 3:41:00 PM
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We'll only pull a month of new crop forward, about 375 million bushels maximum. That's one reason feed usage for 2012 will be higher. It shouldn't make a difference -- as long as yields hold up.
Bryce on 5/22/2012 7:31:00 AM
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if we use new crop to get by the last 60 days of 2012 won't we be short in 2013?????????????????????????????????????????????????????????? OR AM I MISSING SOMETHING !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Anonymous on 5/19/2012 5:22:00 PM
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If you had an additional 50 acres of groung available to plant crops on for 2012, what would you plant? Corn or beans or Oats? Which is most profitable? The land had corn on it last year. No tillage done yet.
Anonymous on 5/18/2012 8:26:00 AM
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This is an election year and Obama and Co. wants to keep grain prices , oil prices ,interest rates and unemployment low to get reelected. the USDA is just doing what his administration wants even if its lying about our grain availability. On the other side of it they might be doing American farmer a favor by obtaining more exports which we need to compete with South America. The only bad part about these prices falling so low now after the crop is planted is the producer is left holding the the risk bag as he is paying the bill on crop inputs.
Anonymous on 5/14/2012 11:25:00 AM
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another try to buy cheat the good old usda ,they still don't after everybody goes to cert. they can push one button and know what everybody planted go to crop ins. and know what everything has made or they can guess!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Anonymous on 5/11/2012 8:39:00 PM
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Wow, looks like the USDA really wants to discourage us from growing corn. Guess we should all park the planters, and switch all the acres still unplanted over to beans!
Anonymous on 5/10/2012 7:57:00 AM
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US 2012 WHEAT PRODUCTION.
The following are analysts' estimates in billions of bushels for 2012 U.S.
winter wheat production based on conditions as of May 1, as compiled by Dow
Jones Newswires. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release
updated wheat production at 8:30 a.m. EDT Thursday. Parentheses denote the
number of estimates in that average and range.
Average Range 2011
Output
All Wheat (12) 2.196 2.054-2.282 1.999
All Winter (11) 1.634 1.499-1.707 1.494
Hard Red Winter (11) 0.990 0.880-1.068 0.780
Soft Red Winter (11) 0.413 0.307-0.454 0.458
White Winter (11) 0.231 0.214-0.267 0.256
All All HRW SRW White
Wheat Winter Winter
ABN Amro 2.225 1.600 0.950 0.425 0.225
ADM Investor Services 2.282 1.694 1.000 0.427 0.267
Allendale 2.271 1.707 1.060 0.428 0.219
Citigroup 2.192 1.645 0.973 0.454 0.219
Farm Futures 2.181 1.623 1.068 0.307 0.248
Globl Cmd Analytics 2.112 n/a n/a n/a n/a
*Informa n/a 1.656 1.008 0.421 0.227
Jefferies Bache 2.054 1.499 0.880 0.405 0.214
Kropf/Love 2.138 1.630 0.975 0.425 0.230
Newedge 2.182 1.619 0.976 0.418 0.225
Prime Ag 2.254 n/a n/a n/a n/a
Rice Dairy 2.203 1.628 0.983 0.415 0.230
RJ O'Brien 2.256 1.671 1.018 0.420 0.234
*From traders
-By Andrew Johnson Jr and Ian Berry; Dow Jones Newswires; 312-347-4604;
andrew.johnsonjr@dowjones.com
US OLD/NEW CROP CARRYOUTS
CHICAGO (Dow Jones)--The following are analysts' estimates in billions of bushels for 2011-12 and 2012-13 U.S. grain and soybean ending stocks, as compiled by Dow Jones Newswires.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release updated supply and demand tables at 8:30 a.m. EDT (1230 GMT) Thursday. Parentheses denote the number of estimates in that average and range.
2011-12
April
2011-12 2010-11
Average Range USDA USDA
Corn (19) 0.758 0.660-0.801 0.801 1.128
Soybeans (19) 0.221 0.200-0.250 0.250 0.215
Wheat (17) 0.781 0.756-0.800 0.793 0.862
Corn Soybeans Wheat
ABN Amro 0.791 0.225 0.778
ADM Investor Services 0.801 0.200 0.777
Agrisource 0.760 0.210 0.775
Allendale 0.772 0.210 0.775
Citigroup 0.751 0.225 0.768
Doane Advisory Srvcs 0.701 0.215 0.778
Farm Futures 0.660 0.209 0.782
Global Comm Analytics 0.801 0.250 0.793
Jefferies Bache 0.751 0.200 0.793
Kropf and Love 0.746 0.210 0.775
McKeany-Flavell 0.775 0.250 0.800
MID-CO 0.788 0.230 0.794
Newedge USA 0.801 0.200 0.756
P.F.G. Best 0.710 0.205 0.793
Prime Ag Consultants 0.801 0.250 0.793
Rice Dairy 0.751 0.215 0.768
Risk Management Comm 0.750 0.225 n/a
RJ O'Brien 0.742 0.230 0.778
US Commodities 0.751 0.234 n/a
2012-13
Average Range
Corn (18) 1.704 1.209-2.072
Soybeans (18) 0.170 0.100-0.250
Wheat (17) 0.805 0.609-0.963
Corn Soybeans Wheat
ABN Amro 1.800 0.175 0.900
ADM Investor Services 1.665 0.122 0.8
Anonymous on 5/9/2012 8:14:00 AM
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Bryce...do you have any of the "range of analysts" numbers available for the upcoming USDA report? Wondering what kind of numbers the market is expecting to see on thursday. Thanks, always enjoy your columns.
Anonymous on 5/8/2012 9:29:00 AM
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I just finished researching an article on this topic for the next issue of Farm Futures, but can give you a sneak preview. You're right, you are vulnerable if prices rise far enough ($8), or, more likely, if yields fall. Situations will vary depending on costs, etc., but one approach is to buy a deep out of the money call -- say a $7.50 December -- to cover the risk. You can pay more, but this decreases profits if prices fall into harvest.
-- Bryce
Anonymous on 4/24/2012 7:33:00 AM
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In south central Nebraska, most of the wheat froze and is being planted to corn. I haven't seen so much corn on corn acres in 20 years- even on dry land. Our region cropping acres mix usually consist of 50% corn, 35-40% soybeans, and 10-15% wheat (excluding hay lands). That's dry land and irrigated mixed together. This year is looking like 70% corn, 2% wheat, and 28% beans. I'm forward contacted up to my insurance, I'm not sure how much corn I'll need to retain for cattle and yields are a huge question mark; therefore, I need some advice on price protection for the top 35% of my corn production as I see a huge downward risk and moderate upside potential (if the Eastern corn belt turn dry later this year).
Anonymous on 4/23/2012 10:32:00 AM
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Thanks for the reports from the field. I've seen some pictures of that 5-leaf corn that look very bad too. Have you checked on availability of seed for replanting?
And, sorry about the soybean typo. I meant old crop. Not enough coffee this morning.
-- Bryce
Anonymous on 4/12/2012 3:52:00 PM
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a lot of corn up Ill and In temp in at 23 last night not looking good
Anonymous on 4/11/2012 9:11:00 AM
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bryce,
you said""November took the biggest hit in yesterday’s selloff, with new crop suffering relatively minor losses, thanks to strong Chinese demand caused by lower production in South America"
please explain.I thought that new crop was Nov.did you mean that nov took biggest hit but still suffered minor losses or are you refering to two different contracts?
Anonymous on 4/11/2012 8:45:00 AM
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my 5 leaf corn turning dark as sun hits it
Anonymous on 4/11/2012 8:36:00 AM
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Kankakee County Illinois, temp at 27 F this morning at 5:30. Yes it was a hard freeze. No one started to plant corn till after April 6 crop insurance kicked in.
Anonymous on 4/11/2012 7:49:00 AM
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oops, misprint. Meant to say say 100 mil, not 100,000 mil!
Anonymous on 4/9/2012 9:51:00 AM
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you know how much corn is up 11111111111111111
Anonymous on 4/9/2012 8:03:00 AM
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Bryce, with regards to last weeks USDA planting intentions report, some of the other anylysts I read and follow are questioning as much as 5 million plus acres not accounted for. Weather its acres that will be reclaimed from last years flooding and wet spring that was abandoned or some acres being released from conservation programs. Any thoughts/comments on that and what we might see in the June USDA report? If this is the case, there's a very good chance of seeing over 100,000 mil. corn acres in 2012.
Anonymous on 4/9/2012 8:00:00 AM
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non gmo for me too
Anonymous on 4/3/2012 7:43:00 AM
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With China holding off on telling or acting like they are going buy corn it is obvious that USDA will make another blunder and let prices go in the toilet, letting consumers buy on a big break.
Anonymous on 3/26/2012 7:54:00 AM
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Daily reports, if any, are posted around 8 a.m. on USDA's Foreign Agricultural Services "newsroom":
http://www.fas.usda.gov/info/newsevents.asp
-- Bryce
Anonymous on 3/26/2012 7:03:00 AM
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Hi Big Fan of Farmfutures.com! I enjoy your commentary very much
I was wondering, Can you please tell me where to find the daily USDA Daily reporting system for large purchases, I can only find the weekly.
Thank you very much. A.
Anonymous on 3/22/2012 9:17:00 AM
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I am going back to raising conventional corn. GMO corn has not worked out for the extra expense of the seed. I am seeing increased demands for conventional and organic feed grains now in my area that can pay a premium. People are willing to pay me $9 to $11 per bushel for organic corn and slightly less for conventional corn right out of the field. I think the export market would prefer conventional corn also with the resistance by many consumers to buy anything GMO.
Anonymous on 3/22/2012 7:08:00 AM
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Thanks for the reply.
I’ve been reading your blog for about 2 months now and enjoy the sharp, concise analysis.
-R
Anonymous on 3/10/2012 5:47:00 AM
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I agree somewhat about the soybean to corn ratio. My research shows the dollar profit advantage of one crop vs the other has a higher statistical correlation. Even at today's prices (2.32 to 1) corn still holds a big advantage. But beans could still lure acres from spring wheat and other crops,such cotton. Corn could have 94 million and beans 76 million or more.
We release our survey numbers March 23.
--Bryce
Anonymous on 3/9/2012 10:18:00 AM
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Sorry, I have been busy writing copy for the April Farm Futures issue, including our projections for selling prices under three most likely weather scenarios.
First, about the deliveries. It's always good to keep track of this because it provides clues about demand and what may be happening in cash market. Though deliveries focus on Illinois River, it's one gauge, especially for exports. The fact that nothing registered, much less delivered, was an indication that strong basis was likely to continue. As is the inverse between March and the rest of the complex.
-- Bryce
Anonymous on 3/9/2012 10:09:00 AM
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yes can you explain the question the previous guy asked
Anonymous on 3/9/2012 8:24:00 AM
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Bryce,
Could you explain the significance of the comment that permeates many of your posts.
” There again were no deliveries today against March corn, with nothing still registered for delivery.”
I’m fairly new to the markets and what might be obvious to others is escaping me. I take it that the intent is farmers are holding tight to their corn. But also see the exact opposite as a possibility; nobody is buying at these prices.
Thanks,
-R
Anonymous on 3/7/2012 7:26:00 AM
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Bryce - I still have a few acres left to decide on corn vs. beans. I've only been following USDA reports for a couple years (young farmer!)...historically, is there much chance of the mar. 31 planting intentions report to differ from the numbers USDA released a week or 2 ago? Love your farmfuturs website. Keep up the good reporting. Thanks.
Anonymous on 3/2/2012 9:04:00 AM
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That would be way to practical and straight forward for the USDA. How on earth could they minipulate hard data like that?
Anonymous on 3/1/2012 12:03:00 PM
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Anyone know if the planting intentions reports use early order (fall/winter) seed sales numbers to help determine the amount of corn vs. bean seed? Think that would help be an inticator of how many acres will be put into what.
Anonymous on 3/1/2012 7:55:00 AM
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Bryce, every producer of course has their own situation but the 2.5 to 1 ratio is outdated. In the days of 2.35 corn and 5.88 beans is when the 2.5 to 1 had a little merit (some). Nitrogen also cost $26 per acre then also and a bag of corn was $56. Diesel .60 cents per gallon and on and on. All I'm saying is everything is different now of course. For me I like beans this year maybe a little ahead of corn currently. Beans have a better price outlook if we are forced to swallow USDA numbers. For me, on my type of ground, if I reduce corn on corn yield by at least 10%, throw on more N, labor, fuel, insurance and so on cost, beans are winning right now. I also figure the sell price of the additional corn on corn bu. less then the other bu. because I do not have storage or drying for them. They are delivered in the fall at the fall basis and at the mercy of elevator drying charges. Elevator DP and storage are not cheap either and if those bu. aren't pre-priced then why did I plant the additional corn? Anyway, that's for my operation and soils. I will say if we are going to raise 94+ million acres of corn it is not all going to be raised on high quality land. Sorry for the long answer and probably have you confused.
Anonymous on 2/29/2012 6:55:00 PM
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Seed was already booked back in november...glad it was all for beans! Figured everyone would be greedy and grow corn. Thanks USDA for making me feel better about that decision! When everyone else looks left, you gotta look right.
Anonymous on 2/28/2012 4:54:00 PM
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USDA's forecast was bullish for beans. Is anyone considering shifting acres? 2.3 to 1 soybean to corn new crop ratio historically isn't enough to do it yet.
-- Bryce
Anonymous on 2/28/2012 9:19:00 AM
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There were signs since summer last year that prices were going to decline. The commercial outlook on the charts have been signalling a bearish tone since june/july 2011. The last several USDA reports have also being slightly bearish since that time. Thats not just a coincidence. It shouldn't be a surprise that 2012 prices will not be as high as 2011. It was a bubble and it has burst. Prices can't set a record every year! Also $7, and $8 dollar corn is a very bad thing. End users, wheather it's ethanol plants, livestock feeders, or countries we export too can't afford that. It's not profitable for us farmers to grow a crop no-one can afford to buy. Who would we sell to? Our crops would be worthless. We needed a correction. 2012 will still be an excellent year...and the cycle will continue, in 2014 or 15, we will set records again. (check the charts of the last 5 years)Good luck to everyone on their up-coming growing season.
Anonymous on 2/27/2012 9:04:00 AM
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You are right, Bryce, negativity is a bad emotion. let me re-write my previous comments in a more neutral less conspiracy-theory manner:
1. Corn prices drop significantly after USDA predicts $5.00 corn this Fall.
2. USDA numbers do not reflect Rosaria's report of 83 million less bushels of Argentine corn in their inventory.
3. China's recent massive purchase of US corn and beans are not reflected in USDA's ending stocks/export numbers.
4. The USDA's report has resulted in an immediate and significant market decline.
5. Fed-subsidized crop insurance levels are based on Feb market prices and will now decline from previous levels.
No conclusions just facts.
PS I do like your column and read it every day.
Anonymous on 2/27/2012 8:17:00 AM
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USDA has their market range set and it will be reasonably close to that no matter what real conditions turn out to be. I have been at this for forty years and it seems to be that way usually. Hang on, it's an election year so who knows.
Anonymous on 2/27/2012 8:03:00 AM
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I share your belief that old crop supplies are tighter than USDA forecasts, and that it's way too early to be negative on new crop. But the overall thrust of USDA's 2012 forecast is the important take away. If yields return to normal, stocks will grow. Prices will fall. Rallies will come, and they should be used until we know otherwise.
I also think it's unwise to questions the motives of others. Conspiracy theories almost never pan out. Negativity is a bad emotion.
-- Bryce
Anonymous on 2/24/2012 12:42:00 PM
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Isn't it great. USDA declares corn will be $5 in Fall so the market drops to accommodate the prediction. This, in spite of the fact that China just bought a boatload of corn. USDA shows amazing ability to tank the corn market whenever it speaks. In spite of the fact that its latest numbers ignore the gap of 83 million less bu Argentine corn than their estimate as compared to Rosaria. Inaccuracies cost farmers money. Too bad the USDAers that make these bad calls don't have a financial penalty for making predictions that ignore hard data over and over again - always to the negative effect on our markets. Do they really think they know more about Argentine corn yields than Rosaria does? They are so cavalier in ignoring whatever they want and making predictions based on bad data. Crop revenue insurance so far has averaged $5.70/bu for Fall - thinking this is a ploy to decrease prices and lessen the Feds payment of insurance claims this Fall.
Anonymous on 2/24/2012 10:31:00 AM
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Note, that last comment is from Bryce. I'll figure this stuff out at some point.
Anonymous on 2/13/2012 1:26:00 PM
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USDA increased its estimate of 2011 crop exports by 50 million bushels, and likely will make more adjustments in the future. But the U.S. won't capture all, or even very much of the loss from Argentina. Feed wheat will eat into the potential gains, livestock producers who can buy feed at a profitable cost will cut back usage, etc. The loss in Argentina should help U.S. exports, but I don't expect a huge impact.
As for the range of analysts estimates, the wire services each do their own surveys. Arlan and I will include the range of estimates in our copy, and I put out a table the day of the report with them. The ranges vary, because each wire service talks to differrent analysts. Farm Futures estimates are included in all three.
Finally, I haven't seen that crop insurance map. USDA down the road may adjust its crop production total; our survey didn't agree with them either, obviously. That may be why March/July traded to 5.75 today.
Anonymous on 2/13/2012 1:25:00 PM
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I would like you to explain something to me. The USDA lowered South America production in soybeans by 4.5 mil. metric ton. To me that would mean that they have less to export. The United States would then have to provide atleast part of the extra bushels needed for world consumption. However, our carry out remained the same. Why did it not go down?
Anonymous on 2/9/2012 4:35:00 PM
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Bryce,can you please inform us where are the range of analysts estimates published? What are the best data sources for analyst info? Thanks
Anonymous on 2/9/2012 9:16:00 AM
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well witch way does big money want the crops to go today hold on to your a-- !!!!!!
Anonymous on 2/9/2012 7:46:00 AM
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Bryce when you look at the map of insurance loss posted on farm futures it is really hard to believe the 2011 crop was as big as USDA says it was.
Anonymous on 2/7/2012 8:05:00 AM
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never mind
Anonymous on 2/6/2012 7:36:00 AM
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Bryce
I have Dalian lower across the board today. What am I missing?
Anonymous on 2/6/2012 7:33:00 AM
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Just thought I'd get my 2cts in:
cts cts
Keep up the good work
Anonymous on 2/3/2012 10:26:00 AM
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To quote from Monty Python: And now, for something completely different...Hopes for shift to bullish sesonal pattern remains unfulfilled for now.
Anonymous on 1/30/2012 8:51:00 AM
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As for trees we all like them my house is made from trees I have trees in my yard when people harvest trees they replant more trees to harvest again I like the heat in my house that natural gas provides and the electricity from my local coal fired plant that makes my heater and air conditioner work but the president hates I like the people that work at all of these places it all so lets a lot of anonymous people complain about us in evil agriculture.All of the above likable people repay me by wearing cotton, eating, and trading the products I produce.So for all that do not like modern technology you can go back to living in the 1800's it will be fun camping out all year long 100 plus down to sub zero,
Anonymous on 1/30/2012 8:10:00 AM
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I assume this is directed at farmers? I am no longer a farmer, but work in the ag retail business. I assume your upset that some farmers are tearing out trees and pasture in order to farm more ground. In some instances I would have to agree with you but on the other hand we have 7 billion in this world that are depending on us to feed them. There is not more ground to buy and farm so we have to do the best we can with what we do have. If a farmer farms around a pocket of trees that equals 3 acres...that amount of ground could feed 450 more people.
Just my thought on it.
Anonymous on 1/27/2012 3:30:00 PM
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Having just sent a comment at 10:54, I wish to add this further thought. I was born and raised in S. D. but no longer live there but have friends and relatives who do. I am offended by your pursuit to chop, burn and destroy what pioneers worked so hard to do. The destruction of the beautification of the land that God gave us is disgraceful! What do you have against trees???? God gave us this beautiful earth and instructed us to care for it. You care for it by destroying it. You profess to be such God loving and fearing people but you are "hell bent" on making the beauty look like a total wasteland. Do you think God sits on his heavenly throne and smiles at your destruction? Not likely! I think you are a greedy people and that on judgement day you will have a lot to answer to.
Anonymous on 1/26/2012 11:13:00 AM
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GMO snow, made by the same USDA researchers who do the stocks survey! As for $2 corn, I did an analysis in Oct. FF (http://magissues.farmprogress.com/FFU/FF10Oct11/ffu44.pdf) on how corn could fall to $2. It's possible, but would take a perfect storm: 180 bpa yield, financial crisis, etc.)
Bryce on 1/24/2012 10:41:00 AM
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I am glad you relieved my concern of lack of snow cover on my wheat. It must be this new GMO snow, its there you just can'f see it
Anonymous on 1/19/2012 7:28:00 PM
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With all the ups and downs in the world market, do you think we will be able to sustain the $5-6 dollar mark from here on out or do you forsee a $2.00 market again?
Anonymous on 1/19/2012 8:45:00 AM
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I would like to know where the 300 mil. bu. that USDA some times finds and then looses actually is in the corn supply at present they seem to have found it but if they loose it farm futures numbers are pretty close which I think is more realistic but if we use that number USDA believes the price will get to high and hurt exports and there bottom line
Anonymous on 1/18/2012 8:02:00 AM
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Good to see a nice, healthy discussion. That's what makes it a market.
Bryce on 1/18/2012 6:36:00 AM
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every year I SAY REMEMBER YEARS BEFORE THEY WILL BE WRONG BUT YOU MAKE TI SOUND SO RIGHT I TAKE THE BATE AGAIN. IT MUST BE ME I FORGET WHAT SIDE YOU AR ON.
Anonymous on 1/16/2012 7:47:00 AM
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hit the nail on the head again
Anonymous on 1/16/2012 7:35:00 AM
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Is this just another way to slow a rally to cheapen the cost of food and ethanol... the truth will set you free...
Anonymous on 1/13/2012 1:09:00 PM
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Bryce and Arlan, unfortunate to see people being so negative towards you both. I really appreciate your market analysis and the farm futures website. Lots of excellent information. I also notice you both always say after any "predictions" that surprises are possible and reports are predictably unpredictable. Your job is to take the numbers your given, and tell us what the market and traders are thinking, and you do a wonerful job of that given how irrational both of them are. Lets also remember that the "harvest lows" in the futures in 2011 were (ballparking)in the range of $5.60-$5.80 corn...how many years in the past would we have been so fortunate to have that for a yearly high? If your not making money on $5.60 corn, there's something seriously wrong with your operation and you'd better stop farming. Perhaps big guys will have to stop offering insane money like $350-$400/ac for rent, and $12,000+/ac purchases when we come back to reality on crop prices and interest rates. Might give smaller operators a chance to grow. I think it's also fortunate for our fellow livestock farmers to see a price correction so they can recover from last years expensive feed. Keep up the excellent work from all the staff at FarmFutures.com Ian.
Anonymous on 1/13/2012 8:48:00 AM
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So, do you guys actually get paid for your input? Please tell me this is just a hobby and you actually do something productive to make an honest living. Blame it on the USDA all you want, but I have never read more inaccurate projections and commentary. Oh, and if you do get paid, could you tell me where to send my resume??? I want in on this.
Anonymous on 1/12/2012 2:12:00 PM
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These reports are the most highly bogus figures that seldom make any mathematical or logical sense. These guesses that Washington puts out are just that, guesses. Hopefully end users will step up on the govs opportunity and fill their needs.
Anonymous on 1/12/2012 11:40:00 AM
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Bryce and Arlan,
You boys have been on the wrong side of the last several USDA reports. Usually the Jan. report is when USDA has to clean up their books and confess their "mistakes". Didn't happen plus they went the other way a little. Your guys estimation always seems to be well thought out and logical. So which one is it in your opinion? If you don't see it like USDA take you mittens off and say it like it is. Political correctness needs to leave the room. Respectively
Anonymous on 1/12/2012 10:43:00 AM
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Any time you do a survey there's a margin of error. Even a small MOE with 12 billion bushel corn crop is a lot.
Bryce on 1/12/2012 9:54:00 AM
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Latest OTC trades in March corn down 40; elevators taking protection.
Bryce on 1/12/2012 9:52:00 AM
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I will make it 550.00
Anonymous on 1/12/2012 8:39:00 AM
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going to up my cash rent to 500. now
Anonymous on 1/12/2012 8:37:00 AM
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I dont know what to believe anymore or who has any accounting skills USDA or Farm Futures
by Glen
Anonymous on 1/12/2012 8:35:00 AM
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Latest OTC trades in March corn down 40; elevators taking protection.
Bryce on 1/12/2012 8:21:00 AM
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January USDA Reports
2011 Crop Production
Thursday's
USDA
Estimate
billion bushels
Corn 12.358
Soybeans 3.056
2011 Crop Yields
Corn 147.2
Soybeans 41.5
2011 Crop Ending Stocks
Thursday's
USDA
Estimate
billion bushels
Wheat 870
Corn 846
Soybeans 275
Winter wheat seedings
Thursday's
USDA
Estimate
million acres
Total 41.947
Hard red 30.1
Soft red 8.37
White 3.49
Dec. 1 Grain Stocks
Thursday's
USDA
Estimate
billion bushels
Wheat 1.656
Corn 9.642
Soybeans 2.366
2011 World Ending Stocks
million metric tons
Thursday's
USDA
Estimate
Wheat 210.02
Corn 128.47
Soybeans 63.43
Bryce on 1/12/2012 8:21:00 AM
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USDA report is causing a lot of headscratching in corn, along with drop in wheat feeding
Bryce on 1/12/2012 8:20:00 AM
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Thanks for sharing.
mirrormicky on 12/28/2012 12:37:00 AM
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you can"t make up time when it"s hot and dry been there to many times!
Anonymous on 1/9/2012 8:19:00 AM
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