Corn Market Roller Coaster
Drought conditions bring fast, overly exciting ride to world corn market.
Published: Jul 17, 2012
Note: João Carlos Kopp, is a grain broker in Brazil who offers his insight into that corn crop, for the season.
This is a volatile year for corn, with prices falling 18% in the beginning of year, until June, when the same drought conditions that struck South America developed in North America. The markets reacted very quickly to the U.S. drought, pushing prices 42% higher from previous lower levels, bringing some price relief to farmers.
This is a tremendous year, when the market has change, the social media accelerates the flow of information to the world, starting with the global grain market that focuses on crops in South America, Australia, Europe, South Africa and of course smart Chinese buying.
I wrote in my previous article about the great second corn crop we have expected to harvest this year in Brazil. I can now provide an update to how the crop has progressed since that time.
The above chart shows average corn yields in Brazil. The blue line shows yields for the first crop corn, the red line second crop corn. The green line shows yields for Argemira Farm second corn crop, situated at Itiquira Mato Grosso Mato Grosso.
In some cases we registered yields in Guara Group of 134 bu/acre, which is a huge crop considering lower levels of fertilizer applied. This year’s second crop corn surged due to increased rainfall, which came after a frustrating first corn crop.
I prepared for readers a good collection of my last visit at Mato Grosso Fields.
Earlier this year we heard a lot of rumors about Brazil importing US Corn, but now we hear rumors that the United States may have purchased a cargo of Brazilian corn for October delivery. Those rumors await confirmation.
And the Roller-coaster continues, bringing more volatility than usual to the market. Brazil Corn continue U$20,00/ton or 50 cents per bushel cheaper than US supplies. Brazil is thought to have around 15 million metric tons or 590 million bushels to export in the second half of the year, making it easy to see corn working north.
Brazil typically cannot export that much corn, but this year’s record export of soybeans in the first half probably improved the logistics for exports of that size. Time will tell if the U.S. will import significant quantities of Brazilian corn. However, a catastrophe from this year’s short U.S. crop makes it more likely.
I would also like to introduce to you our experience with the Guará Group. They were created in 1997 by Alexander Stermann, with the intent to take the best practices for each farm, trying to learn from their experiences and trying to improve yields from year to year, while increasing both area and total production. This year the president of Group is Ricardo Theodoro D´Avedo Lemos and VP Norma Gatto.
Today we have a total production around 74.000 acres, where we have major soybean production around 1.8 MMT and 1 MMT of Corn, along with live cattle producer, feedlots and grass feeding.
A part of farm group will come with me to the Farm Progress Show in August, where we will be very glad to share experiences with American farmers. You can learn more about those presentations in the Farm Progress Show program.
These are farmers and workers with the Guara Group, many of whom plan on traveling to the United States in time for the 2012 Farm Progress Show. From Left to the Right: Joel Hillesheim, Ronaldo Proian, Jociel Almeida, Alexandre Miniuk, Ricardo Lemos, Miwa Gatto, Felipe Gatto, Marcelo Vankevicius, Agnaldo Barbosa, Norma Gatto, Clarissa Lopes, Sérgio Pontes, Isaias Azeredo de Moraes , Joel Strobel. Back: João Carlos Kopp, Igor Gatto, Paulo Raffa, Lincon Gerlange, Natalia Abreu. Children in front: Sarah Gatto and Arthur Gatto.
Thank you Very Much, and hope to see readers at Farm Progress Show in August.
João Carlos Kopp.
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Tagged: farm progress, farm progress show, Progress show, Drought, soybean production