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Australia Cuts Wheat Forecast

Dry seasonal conditions have cut the forecast Australian winter crop production for wheat, barley and canola by 36%, compared with the 2005-06 crop.

ABARE is now forecasting a total winter crop production of 26 million tonnes in 2006-07, comprising:

• Wheat production in 2006-07 to decline by around 35%, to 16.4 million tonnes.

• Barley production to fall to around 5.8 million tonnes, a 41% drop from the previous season.

• Canola production to be down to around 775,000 tonnes, the lowest in 10 years.

The report was released Tuesday by Karen Schneider, acting executive director of ABARE.

"Most cropping regions of Australia recorded below to very much below average winter rainfall," Schneider says. "Some regions recorded their lowest winter rainfall on record."

Outlook among the States is:

• New South Wales: In northern NSW, the crop development has been reasonable. In southern and central NSW, below average rainfall, combined with late planting, will result in significant yield penalties.

• Victoria: A sharp decline in conditions across much of Victoria over the past few months, particularly in August, will cut yields.

• Queensland: A strong possibility of a low yielding crop in 2006-07, with the exception of central Queensland, where conditions have been reasonable.

• Western Australia: Across the wheatbelt, rainfall throughout the winter months has been below average. Conditions in the southern and central regions are looking better than in the northern districts.

• South Australia: After a promising start to the winter cropping season, prospects slumped rapidly during August as conditions stayed dry.