March 11, 2014
The monthly WASDE report that did not deliver the bullish numbers the trade wanted (evidenced by the sell-off in Monday's grain and soybean complexes) is now behind us. Eyes will be focusing on the progress and size of the South American corn and soybean harvest, any cancellation or switching of U.S. soybeans from China, fund positioning, effects of weather on upcoming field work and planting and finally the March 31 prospective planting and quarterly stocks report. Of course also any unexpected news that causes market uncertainty and nervousness.
Upcoming agricultural reports to watch for: Wednesday March 12 at 10 a.m. CT is the weekly EIA ethanol report. Thursday, March 13 at 7:30 a.m. is the weekly export sales. Friday March 14 is expiration of the March futures for the grains & soybean complex. Saturday March 15 is a full moon. Thursday March 20 is the first day of spring. Monday, March 31 is the Prospective Plantings and the Quarterly Grain Stocks report.
Corn futures started the session lower and closed positive. Spillover support from the large strength in the wheat futures helped to give price support to the corn futures.
The weekly update has Texas corn crop now 10% planted, last week was 8%, year ago was 27% and the five-year average is 18%.
May Corn futures today made a new low for the week, traded mixed and closed positive below Monday's high. Resistance is at $5.02 the 50% retracement of the January Low to the June High, $5.02 ½ the March high, then $5.22 ½ the 61.8% retracement. Support is at $4.78 the 200-day moving average, then $4.64 the March Low, then $4.48 the 50-day moving average, then $4.38 ¾ the February low, then $4.14 ½ the contract and January Low.
December Corn traded mixed today and closed positive. The contract from the January contract low to the March high has now rallied 58 ¾-cents with most of that upside coming on the January 10 report day 23 ¾-cents. The $5.07 mark is a 50% retracement of the January low back to the June high.
The Soybean Complex today traded mostly lower and closed mostly negative. Many of the soybean complex contracts saw new lows made for the week today. The soybean complex lacked any type of market moving news.
Bear spreading was very active today in the soybean and soybean meal futures as the new crop gained over the old crop.
May Soybean traded to a new low for the week, traded mixed and closed negative today. Resistance is at $14.25, then $14.50 area, then $14.60 the March & Contract high, then $14.75 area. Support starts at $14.02 the March Low, then $13.75 area, then $13.50 area, then $13.25 area, then $13.19 the 50-day moving average, $12.97 the 100-day moving average, then $12.84 the 200-day moving average.
November Soybeans traded mostly higher, made a new high for the week and closed positive with its highest close since September 12. The contract closed above the 100-day moving average for the thirteenth straight session today. The contract from the contract low to the March high has rallied $1.09. The $11.94 mark is a 50% retracement of the January low back to the June high and was breached today.
Wheat futures in Chicago, Kansas City and Minneapolis closed with double-digit gains today. Wheat saw its best gains since last Monday when the highs were attributed to the news of Russia invading the Ukraine. News about the Ukraine may have been the reason for today's upside also as reports that most of the spring crops area in the Crimea region will not get planted. That is bad news for the Crimea region, but they accounted for 1.2% of the overall 2013 harvest in the Ukraine.
Weekly crop condition ratings were released Monday afternoon from some winter wheat producing states. Kansas was 37% good/excellent up 2% from last week, Texas was 28% good/excellent up 13% from last week and Oklahoma was 22% good/excellent down 9% from last week. Oklahoma also reported they were 5% jointed, year ago 20% and the five-year is 17%.
The current upside in the wheat market is giving producers that have old crop wheat a much better price to sell at than most thought was possible thirty to sixty days ago. The new crop prices are also worth taking advantage of, especially if you have not priced any at all.
Kansas City May Wheat futures today had its highest trade since November 4 and closed positive. Resistance is at $7.38 the March high, then $7.40 ½ the November high, then $7.50 area. Support is at $7.08 the 200-day moving average, then $6.80 the 100-day moving average, then $6.80 ½ to $6.79 ¼ Open Gap, then $6.53 the 50-day moving average; $6.25 area, then $6.05 the contract and January Low.
Chicago May Wheat had its highest trade today since December 5 and closed positive. Resistance starts at $6.64 the 200-day moving average, then at $6.67 ¼ the March high, then $6.79 ¼ the December High. Support is at $6.45 area, then $6.31 the 100-day moving average, then $6.20 area, then $6.11 ¼ to $6.05 Open Gap, then $5.97 the 50-day moving average, then $5.75 area, then $5.53 ½ the contract and January low.
The Minneapolis May Wheat today had an outside trading session to the upside today. Resistance is at $7.16 ¼ the March high, then $7.26 the 200-day moving average. Support begins at $7.00 area, then $6.77 the 100-day moving average, then $6.50 area, then $6.39 the 50-day moving average, then $6.15 area, then $5.94 ½ the contract and January low.
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This information is not to be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation or an offer to buy the commodities herein named. The factual information of this report has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not necessarily all-inclusive and is not guaranteed as to the accuracy, and is not to be construed as representation. The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Mr. Leffler does not currently maintain interest in the commodities mentioned within this report.
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