Honestly, how many guys have stopped reading the well thought ought dialog by the mediators and just post. It has to suck writing about the insane and stupid everyday. Just saying.......
Anonymous on 5/18/2013 10:46:00 PM
|
Guys: you need to stop thinking like your father's and his dad. Why? They are not around anymore. Everyone's farm is now bigger. If you want to put the blocks to Goldman and other's. Well grow a spine quite whinning. First thing is bin space. If you can't store the whole crop. Then get bins to hold the crop. If you need money for expenses sell some. Sit on the rest. You guys own your own furture this year. STORE THE GRAIN. IF YOU ALL HOLD MOST OF THE ;GRAIN BACK. BY CHRISTMAS THE PRICE WILL BE AT A PROFITABLE LEVEL. What have you to lose.?? SELL CHEAP AND BE OUT IN THE STREET ( OR ROAD ).
Anonymous on 5/17/2013 8:38:00 AM
|
"Corn prices remain above the $5 level, keeping profit in this market"? Who is paying $5 cash price for December corn Paul? Cash price average is $4.87, and there is no profit at this price. If you aren't going to change your daily report, at least make sure it is accurate. That is just a stupid comment to make when it is not true. Or are you on Obama's payroll?
Anonymous on 5/16/2013 3:50:00 PM
|
You should get one put option just out of the money for insurance! Remember -1 cent = -$50
Anonymous on 5/14/2013 7:55:00 PM
|
I have got 1 long July corn.I have always want to see how it works. I guess one will not put me in the poor house. 55 cent between July and May.Looks like I fun.
Colorado
Anonymous on 5/14/2013 6:09:00 PM
|
I've got 10 Long July contracts and will take them into delivery for the heck of it. Show me the corn. S.C.
Anonymous on 5/13/2013 6:26:00 PM
|
There is no corn seed to plant! Doesn't matter the weather if you don't have seed!
Anonymous on 5/13/2013 8:33:00 AM
|
I think we should call USDA out on it numbers.If all the USA farmers bought a July corn and demand delivery we would find out if the extra 400 million bushels are there.We may win or we may lose but I would like to take the change.If corn go under $5 we all will lose.
Anonymous on 5/12/2013 11:51:00 AM
|
People are getting picture, USDA is either staffed by morons or taking instructions from above, manipulation, why ? Goldnan is but one of many world wide on to this legalised theft.China will screw you in your own back yard, USA will end up borrowing more money from them, end up owning you. South Africa is exporting maize ,it does not have, shortage will come.Morals and ethics do not exist anymore, greed , yes Les
Anonymous on 5/12/2013 2:16:00 AM
|
BTW it wasn't just China who got away with the bait and switch crap last year. I am guessing when Goldman Sachs was Calling for $9_10 corn the back office was already executing the sell orders.
Anonymous on 5/11/2013 4:37:00 PM
|
Easy to short sell commodities you have never gotten your manicured little hands dirty producing. If you want to talk about the most unethical and biggest thieves on the face of the planet effecting grain prices, let's discuss Goldman Sachs and Jon Corzine. Never held accountable for any of their actions ever. And we just keep getting it put to us.
Anonymous on 5/11/2013 4:14:00 PM
|
You could also blame the likes of Goldman Sachs and Arlan for destroying our demand markets. When corn trades for over $8 and these idiots are calling for $9-10 what else do you expect. I hope we all learned a lesson from this , but I doubt it. BTW it is clear Goldman Sachs is now short selling December corn.
Anonymous on 5/11/2013 3:28:00 PM
|
Iowa State University Extension and Outreach estimated cost of production for a bushel of corn is $5.03. December basis 37 cents. CBOT breakeven point to sell December corn $5.40. Anything less is a loss to the producer. Visit their website for more details.
Anonymous on 5/11/2013 10:07:00 AM
|
Average USDA corn farm price projection is $4.70 per bushel for 2013/2014. Slowest planting progress most can remember, which means no early harvest in August this year. Lowest carry out in last 18 years. Cost of production $5 per bushel. Who would sell corn for $4.70? If this is a reality, why would any of us plant corn? I for one am sick and tired of the illusion this government permeates throughout the economy. Just like last year, China will contract cargoes of this cheap corn , then turn around in July and August and sell it back for a $3 profit without touching the grain. My God are we really this stupid? Maybe we all need to sit this year out. Why not?
Anonymous on 5/11/2013 9:44:00 AM
|
I'm from South Africa, United States Department of Agriculture is a bunch of puppets on a string , pulled by your President , you are stuck with him , information is being deliberately manipulated, traders etc are going to make big money, if this is not insider trading , then what is it?
Les
Anonymous on 5/11/2013 2:58:00 AM
|
The USDA won't admit to the shortage of corn and beans we have but can tell us how many bushles were going to produce this year. We still have 125 million bu of beans left when basis in some areas are paying as much as a 1.25 over cbot? Corn basis getting tighter since they found 400 million x-tra bu? Still going to plant 97 million ac of corn when we have the slowest planting pace on record? Same BS usda report, differnt month.
Anonymous on 5/11/2013 1:14:00 AM
|
Hummm...record corn production but maybe 25-30 percent forced planted in wet fields as of May 10. Yep, another great insight report out of USDA. Am I the only producer getting tired of this bogus crap...never mind I know the answer. Good luck to all.
Anonymous on 5/10/2013 8:31:00 PM
|
May futures are irrelevant they have under 10K in open interest. Need to focus on July and December......
Anonymous on 5/7/2013 2:18:00 PM
|
If you took half of the money spend on the last election. Then took that money and gave it to AG Colleges and said here, go research something. Just threw the money at them and let them figure out what look at. Just think of what could happen if they didn't have to beg for grant money for a research project. That would yield more and better results than we got out of the pass election. I think that is something that everyone could agree upon. 1 billion dollars to elect a president what a waste of money.
Anonymous on 5/2/2013 7:39:00 AM
|
Going back to 4-29 comment about 4-27. I agree with the both of you. Men have died so you can vote or not. For 4-27 there was about 8% of his voting block that felt the same way. Neither of the candidates inspired that group enough to do anything and they saw no hope or change from either one. They both beat each other up so badly that neither one was going to be a worth while president. Neither one really had any kind plan or clue what they were going to to once they won. That's the beauty of this great country. Obama and his administration will past and we will get pass this experiment too.
Anonymous on 5/1/2013 8:29:00 AM
|
Sounds like some of you demo voters are still on your P&M committes.Must be Bush!s fault.
Anonymous on 5/1/2013 7:01:00 AM
|
Well here in Sw Mn 6 miles off the Iowa border the forecast is for temps in the 30's and 40's till Monday with a snow cold rain mix !! Got 40 acres (out of 800) fertilized and field cultivated and looked good. Was gonna plant it today and called my seed guy to see which variety had the best emergence. He said he just got an e-mail from his Monsanto rep saying DO NOT plant today because of the forecast ! Said the germ is weak enough and a cold rain after planting is asking for stand trouble. Gonna be into next week for sure to start rolling again : ( Mother Nature is having her say again ! Those USDA numbers are gonna be way off.
Anonymous on 4/30/2013 7:09:00 PM
|
I can't believe that with 3 seventy degree days in a row that everyone wasn't able to dry out and get everything planted. That seemed to be the idea last week. Hopefully everyone that needs bushels between September 1st and October 1st has them secured because come September 20th when no one is combining new crop they will have something to grind into ethanol or have livestock feed. I would think that the 700 million bushel carryout basket will be empty by then.
Anonymous on 4/29/2013 11:29:00 PM
|
Here we go again. Your big acres and yield is disappearing before your eyes but yet it is still a anomaly. I get it but keep up junior.
Anonymous on 4/29/2013 8:54:00 PM
|
Up limit on a non-reporting day! Has that happened before?
Anonymous on 4/29/2013 3:50:00 PM
|
6:52... Romney wasnt perfect but would have been 200% better than the bum we have in the white house. At least Romney worked for a living before entering politics. By not voting you "voted" for Obama. I have voted in every election since I was 18, not because I always liked all the canidates, but because of all the people that have died to give me that right. I will idle 10 (or more if mother nature provides for it), and also I am NOT switching acers to beans. If I get to the prevent plant date for corn, ALL my intended corn acers will be black.
Anonymous on 4/29/2013 3:40:00 PM
|
Did anyone catch some of these planting progress guesses in the 10-15% on corn? Who in their right mind would say that? Do you watch the weather anywhere outside your property lines??? 5% national..wheat getting worse.
You guys are right, mother nature will idle 10, but the govt won't ever print that. Can't wait to see how they spin this one. S.C.
Anonymous on 4/29/2013 3:20:00 PM
|
Well I hope that all of you out in Iowa are happy with the president you elected this time around. He talks a great game but delivers USDA reports like the last few. I remember CARTER and how the country had slipped into what it is like today. But the thing is we only had him for 4 years and not 8. Well we Are getting what we deserve with the present administration. And Romney was no better. I was so pissed off with them 2 losers I refused to waste my $4.00 gasoline to go vote.
So here is how I see it. Mother Nature is going to IDLE 10. AS FOR THE REST OF YOU. BETTER LOCK THE BIN DOORS AND SELL ONLY WHEN YOU NEED MONEY TO STAY IN BUSINESSES. THEN SELL WHEN THE MARKET OR BASIS GET TO WHERE YOU ARE MAKING A PROFIT. IF NOT THE NEIGHBORS WILL COME AND BUY WHAT LEFT.
Anonymous on 4/27/2013 6:52:00 AM
|
Yeah Paul needs to go , nice guy just wrong position for him, and you think someone there @ FF would see that.
Anonymous on 4/24/2013 1:50:00 PM
|
It's obvious the fundamentals have been throwen out the window. Dec corn trading below levels a year ago and we have less corn on hand than a year ago even with the mysterious 400 million bu the usda supposedly found. Don't forget were off to a great start this year with a whopping 4% planted. Where's that "early" corn gonna come from when there's no corn planted yet? Better call up South America and fill a couple more ships or have the usda wave their magical wand and find some more bushles to get us through. The 8:18 pm comment is spot on, i don't even read Paul's comments anymore it's the same thing day after day.
Anonymous on 4/23/2013 10:51:00 PM
|
Whatever happened to trading the fundamentals..short crop last year.. exports on soybeans going great ..ethanol and livestock eating up whats left of the corn on hand..(Oh wait ..theres 400 million more ..gee whiz that was easy !) no planting to speak of and its almost May for God's sake . It's still WINTER like in Minnesota for sure. Hey everythings great here at the CBOT !.
Anonymous on 4/23/2013 9:58:00 PM
|
Do me a favor Paul, please quit reminded me about selling at 7.50. I know you are cutting and pasting, but its getting old Pal. Thanks in advance.
Anonymous on 4/23/2013 8:18:00 PM
|
The casino they call the stock market was in full effect today after somebody can send a fake tweet saying there was an explosion at the white house causing the stock market { i mean casino} to fall 150 points in a matter of seconds only to recover in a manner of seconds. Makes you wonder.
Anonymous on 4/23/2013 8:07:00 PM
|
The start off the Colorado Rockies game the Temp. was 23 at 1.00 P.M. The is the coldest temp for the start of a game ever. The wheat around Denver looked brown from the snow last week.
Anonymous on 4/23/2013 3:13:00 PM
|
Next week I'm seeding a pivot back to alfalfa that made 275 bushels of corn last fall. Hay prices are high and the supply and demand equation still sets the price not the USDA or the boys in Chicago. Hay still nets more dollars and acre than corn.
Anonymous on 4/17/2013 7:27:00 PM
|
Early planting favours corn AND beans yield.Regardless of the acreage,late planting will reduce bushels per acre.
Anonymous on 4/17/2013 7:04:00 PM
|
good luck, That is the good news.visit http://www.yepi.org | http://www.kizi-2.net
Anonymous on 4/14/2013 11:56:00 PM
|
games free http://www.yepi6.org | http://www.kizi-2.net
Anonymous on 4/14/2013 11:54:00 PM
|
The 4/12 comment is exactly right. End users should not be getting concerned about planting delays. We have plenty of grain to make it until this fall according to the usda. Basis in my area for beans went from 35-40 over to 65-70 over cbot. Not sure why when the usda just said they "found more". Usda can say whatever they want to manipulate the markets but basis tells the real truth. I'm all for IDLE 10.
Anonymous on 4/14/2013 1:52:00 PM
|
Where can I buy a IDLE 10 T-shirt ?
Anonymous on 4/13/2013 9:57:00 AM
|
Would someone please tell me why end users are getting concerned about late planting in the north and cold temps affecting germination in the south? The dumb asses should call the USDA, they found 400 million bushels, too bad they won't tell anyone where those bushels are. The Basis improved .25 where I'm at 2 days after the latest BS report?? If it wasn't so disturbing that our goverment can release bogus reports to promote their agenda and get away with it, it would be funny. If any public traded company in this country pulled that crap with their quarterly reports, the CFO's would be in prison!
Anonymous on 4/12/2013 2:37:00 PM
|
As for the last comment on here, you are spot on! This is beyond absurd. Props to Darin Newsome and Arlan Suderman for their comments this afternoon. One side not knowing what the other is doing, one set of numbers arguing with the other. Ridiculous. Lets hope ole man market is gonna help us. Big Brother is trying to control prices. Anybody remember 1984 by George Orwell?
Anonymous on 4/10/2013 8:24:00 PM
|
Another BS report from the usda. I don't think God himself could figure out how they come up with their numbers. Whether it's NASS or WASDE none of them have a clue what's going on yet some out there kiss their a$$ like god has spoken. All they do with their reports is manipulate the markets. We have gone through roughly 4-5 months and we still have 125 million bu of beans left??? Their an embarrassment to this country and an insult to all farmers.
Anonymous on 4/10/2013 7:37:00 PM
|
Call it the China report. World wheat stocks were up 148 million bushel with 110 coming from lower domestic feeding in China. World course grain stocks up 7.55 million metric tons with 3.15 attributed to China. World corn stocks were up 307 million bushel with China’s increasing 124 million bushels. World soybean stocks were up 89 million bushels with major exports increasing 170 million bushel and China decreasing 73 million bushels. China had a large impact on the report than the US did.
Freeport, IL
Anonymous on 4/10/2013 2:43:00 PM
|
Take it on down to 50 cent, we will just have $6 dolla bases......
Anonymous on 4/9/2013 4:35:00 PM
|
Oversold? Ya think?
Anonymous on 4/9/2013 3:00:00 PM
|
I keep hearing that South America is so much cheaper than our corn and were not competitive in the export market compared to them. SO WHAT. Why should we as farmers here in the U.S compete with other countries to see who can produce more corn and sell it to China for little as possible? Corn in China is around $10/bushel and beans over $21/bushel. They sit back and see what country can produce the most so they can buy it as cheap as possible. I'm all for cutting 10% and producing enough for what we use here in the U.S. If some other country wants to raise it for less than the cost of production then have at it. By the way if we would run short we always we can always count on the usda to wave their magical wand and mysteriously find some or if we do import let's put a tariff on it.
Anonymous on 4/5/2013 8:48:00 PM
|
Amazing how this works! Just sold corn in S.C. for the highest basis ever for a spot market. I know the board crashed, but with all this extra 400million corn, would basis go up??? By the way, the South is wet, has been wet for a month and hard to get corn seed is being shipped right back to the dealer. Cotton would have replaced corn anyway with their price strength versus corn weakness. Who can believe a thing that crew in DC says?
Anonymous on 4/5/2013 12:54:00 PM
|
I agree with 4/3 comments. Let's spread the word to every farmer you know tell them to pass it on. "IDLE 10". Let everyone know that we are tired of being pissed on. I plant 1200 acres of corn and just cancelled 120 acres of seed. If we don't do this USDA will have their wish in that China will be able to buy $5 corn.
Anonymous on 4/4/2013 4:25:00 PM
|
To promote the movement, lets not plant our head lands, that way we will know what farmers are not on board.
Anonymous on 4/3/2013 8:59:00 PM
|
Let's call it "IDLE 10". I grow 2000 acres of corn and today i cancelled 200 acres of seed. Do the math boys, if we refuse to plant 10% of USDA's projected planted acres(97 mil) that puts us at approx 87 million planted acres. Actual harvested acres would be around 81 million. Let's make the easy money, idle 10, buy futures, and make the paper money they do at the CBOT. Wonder how the USDA would lie about that?
Anonymous on 4/3/2013 8:40:00 PM
|
FSA cutting all farm programs by 8.5%.We have to take care of ourselves.It time to cut acreas or plant numbers.300 dollar a bag seed no wonder Monsanto has got record profits.
Anonymous on 4/3/2013 6:46:00 PM
|
Why do so many analysts & traders try so hard to believe the USDA? I looked at my bins and they are no bigger than they were last week.
Anonymous on 4/3/2013 6:07:00 PM
|
If you don't agree with an acreage cut,reconsider planting land that barely repays your inputs.That 80 - 100 bu/acre only increases the surplus and puts no money in your pocket.Everyone can agree on that.
Anonymous on 4/3/2013 12:18:00 PM
|
I wholeheartedly agree with everyone that is considering 10 to 20 percent cut in production. It is time the farmer get the break and stop the USDA and brokers from manipiulating the crap out of the market!
Anonymous on 4/3/2013 5:45:00 AM
|
It's just amazing that everytime people start leaning one way or another the USDA pulls this crap. I hope this stimulates more demand and we will run out of corn in July instead of September. Maybe this will help to get about 90 million acres planted to corn instead of 100.
Anonymous on 4/2/2013 10:04:00 PM
|
I spent 300$ an acre saving my crop from the drought,+18 hour days.I know what its worth come june.The guys that got the million dollar insurance payoffs produced nothing.The shortages we experience last summer are childsplay to whats coming.
Anonymous on 4/2/2013 5:50:00 PM
|
Does Washington want the massive money printing strategy to inflate food prices? No! Thursday's USDA report punished everyone holding or speculating in grain.
Anonymous on 4/2/2013 9:37:00 AM
|
Let us make some of our own demand.I am going today and filling up with E-85 and buying some big steaks. I would like to Thank the people who buy my real corn!!!!
Anonymous on 4/2/2013 9:33:00 AM
|
Time to make a stance for the next few weeks, DON"T SELL. drive the CBOT price back up 200cents.Use our network, tell your neighbor, email your farming friend, and spread the word DON"T SELL. and cut planting numbers by 20% as all have been saying your gross return in the end will be better and you will have less costs.Go for it "SPREAD THE WORD".
Anonymous on 4/1/2013 11:41:00 PM
|
The usda does'nt give a sh#t about the farmer or livestock producer. If they did then why did'nt they let the livestock producers, ethanol plants or any end user get any of that 400 million bushles we supposedly have? If we cut back 10-20% we can farm that much on the computer by using a mouse. Just like the funds do.
Anonymous on 4/1/2013 7:50:00 PM
|
How about this for an Idea.Everyone buy one July corn and demand delivery.We all know they do not have it to deliver.I wonder how much it would cost to import corn to Chicago? But CBOT would proable change the rules.Like the last time we ran out of Soybeans.
Anonymous on 4/1/2013 7:31:00 PM
|
I've suspected that the gov't didn't want speculators to make money from the short 2012 crop. This report may be suspect,compared to all the private estimates.But like everything else with this administration,the end justifies the means.
Anonymous on 4/1/2013 5:05:00 PM
|
Same old BS. If the USDA is so concerned about the cost of food, why is the Dept of Energy not concerned with the cost of fuel and gas. When oil and gas goes up so does food prices, but no one ever mentions this. Last time I checked oil and gas prices affect food prices more than commodity prices. We the farmers have the power. Keep you bins locked and cut back 20% and watch the USDA scramble when corn hits $10 and soybeans $20.
Anonymous on 4/1/2013 4:44:00 PM
|
Gas is still higher because it is control by a few who can charge what ever they want.If we all use E-85 that would change very fast.Help yourself and the USA burn E-85 !!!!!
Anonymous on 3/31/2013 11:00:00 AM
|
The govt comes out with a BS report and the grains tank because we supposedly have way more than even the most bearish person even thought. Yet were producing more gas and oil here in the U.S than ever before but i'm still paying very high gas and diesel prices at the pump??? Please write in and comment if anybody has a logical answer.
Anonymous on 3/31/2013 10:12:00 AM
|
Most of the bearish guys that i know did'nt expect a report like this. Even they have enough brains to know this was a phoney report. Why did the usda not break down on how they came up with these phoney numbers? They usually have a break down on how they come up with their numbers. Not one analysist out there could tell us on how they came up with them. Probably because they knew they did'nt have to say on how they came up with them so they throw out some bogus numbers and manipulate the markets. Goes to show how clueless and disfunctional the usda is.
Anonymous on 3/31/2013 9:48:00 AM
|
I think we all need to cut back 10 to 20 %
Anonymous on 3/31/2013 6:38:00 AM
|
After seeing how much corn we have I think I will cut my areas 20%.My ground needs time to regain soil moisture.
Anonymous on 3/29/2013 7:29:00 PM
|
The traders' reaction to the USDA numbers is overdone.They can make money pushing prices down.I've read several opinions from people in the real market,commercial buyers,who believe higher prices are needed or they'll run out of corn before harvest. CME is not the be all and end all.They're the kind of people who check the weather on the computer instead of looking outside.
Anonymous on 3/29/2013 6:43:00 AM
|
Farmers...We see what one bogus report can do to our prices. If we over produce it will get worse. I'm all for cutting 10%. If the govt thinks they can put out a prepostreious report like this then we can counter punch by cutting back. We still hold the cards by how much we plant.
Anonymous on 3/28/2013 10:45:00 PM
|
The real winner today was our good friends in communist China.
Anonymous on 3/28/2013 10:19:00 PM
|
Who is going to sell corn 40 cents cheaper than it was yesterday? Either the market bounces back or basis goes up.Until sanity prevails grain stays in the bins.
Anonymous on 3/28/2013 9:59:00 PM
|
If we imported 400 million bu from argentina then where is it? We might have imported it on paper but where is the physical commodity? If we did it's getting all used up or why would we import that much? Just another way to manipulate the markets. They did the same thing a few years ago, find some extra grain only to lose it in the following report and then mysteriously find it again. Maybe the grain is playing "hide and seek" with the usda.
Anonymous on 3/28/2013 9:19:00 PM
|
The USDA just proved to me that there is life on mars and they are planting corn and beans up there.
Anonymous on 3/28/2013 8:59:00 PM
|
More corn, beans, and wheat?? What was the livestock eating? What happend to all the soybeans that were exported? Were over 90% sold that the usda said we would by the end of the year. Basis for corn and beans are very high yet we supposedly have all this grain on hand? The usda obviously does'nt have a clue whats going on so they throw out some obsurbed numbers. From what i was told there's no breakdown in how they came up with them that's why nobody can figure out how they did. Wonder if China is smileing from ear to ear?
Anonymous on 3/28/2013 7:38:00 PM
|
The extra 400 million bu of corn is coming from argentina to the usda
Anonymous on 3/28/2013 5:31:00 PM
|
The USDA is now the biggest corn producer ever.
Anonymous on 3/28/2013 5:17:00 PM
|
Inventories of grain is at multi-year lows at both on farm and commercials, the usda just told us that a few weeks ago, YET they find an extra 400 million bu. of corn ?? Can anyone say BULLS*@T! The USDA is no more reliable than a fortune teller. OH wait, im sorry.... they have been so accurate the last four years. Funny, if there is that much corn here why are we importing corn from argentina?
Anonymous on 3/28/2013 1:14:00 PM
|
The USDA just increased the range of estimates for corn stocks to 500M bushels,anywhere from 4.9B to 5.4B bushels.Clear as mud.I'd like to know how all these estimates are done,to see who uses the best approach.How can the average estimate from private forecasts be so different from the government's?
Anonymous on 3/28/2013 11:45:00 AM
|
maybe we need to think about how much corn & beans we plant this year? If we over plant we will kill our markets for sometime to come. I'm thinking of rotating oats, wheat, and alfafa.
Anonymous on 3/26/2013 9:58:00 PM
|
Some people wanted to believe $10 corn and $20 beans were just around the corner.Their timing may have been off or their target price may be at the end of the rainbow .This spooky weather is the wild card.
Anonymous on 3/26/2013 7:09:00 PM
|
I don't believe there's hardly any grain left. Most farmers that i know sold their beans right off the combine for $16-17 bucks. Unlike the usda basis does'nt lie.
Anonymous on 3/26/2013 6:08:00 PM
|
Why would any one store grain until spring or summer of 2013 when we had those prices last fall? I don't think many people have that grain in the bins.
Anonymous on 3/25/2013 9:34:00 PM
|
Hang onto your crops boys ... the market in May will be a huge profit for us. All the indicators are showing less volume in bins than they predict.
Anonymous on 3/22/2013 6:29:00 PM
|
Every producer needs to remember anylist analylize and do not have their butt on the line. This is why when they are from farm backgrounds, they chose the paycheck. Call it right, they are a self proclaimed genious, call it wrong, and outside forces came to play. Learn as much that you can on your own. If mother nature tells you are screwed, listen to that and not the befungling stooges watching the market "action".
Anonymous on 3/21/2013 4:42:00 PM
|
From what I could find, their yields are way better than forecasted.
Anonymous on 3/20/2013 9:46:00 AM
|
Has anyone heard how the yields are for the soybeans that Brazil has harvested? If they have supposedly harvested over 30% of the beans why haven't we heard of the yields? Or the yields not as great as forcasted?!
Anonymous on 3/13/2013 8:37:00 PM
|
The cost of farming increases partly because farmers are willing to pay more.We grumble about it but keep paying more.$300 seed corn? We buy it because everyone else does,too.The more you buy,the bigger the discount.They'll tell you to plant it thicker until $1 of seed returns $1 of grain.Guess who you're working for.I'd bet someone could build a solid dependable combine for $100K,but they wouldn't make $75K profit off it.We should rethink a few things instead of feeding the input price spiral.The government won't be able to bail us out if grain prices collapse.We're the ones taking the risks, wise up.
Anonymous on 3/8/2013 4:51:00 PM
|
Well guys if you read all this crap on these websites, it looks like farming has come to an end. We might as well start looking for jobs. I hear you can make decent money just sweeping floors for the government(50gs)?
I plan to donate my farmland to the CBOT, and USDA if it all goes down the gutter. I mean hell, they are the only ones that can predict a crop right down to the last bushel, 6 months before I even decide what I am going to plant! They are way better farmers than I.
Anonymous on 3/8/2013 1:35:00 PM
|
Well guys in Paul's March 7 th report. Paul is growing concerned that we are exporting to many soybeans. Well that means 2 things need to happen. LOCK THE SOYBEAN BIN DOORS. If there is a short supply of soybeans my guess is the price is going to go up. "The market will do it's job". How?????. The price will go up to slow demand, also to get more soybeans planted. Even with a large crop here. Out in the "real world market" they are still short. If the U S and South America have short crops this year. The price of soybeans could be here what they pay off the boat in China. Its $20.00 plus a bushel to feed a pig to eat later. Now there is nothing the matter with making a profit. If you don't you won't be farming long term. We are now in the days of farming on a city lots of 20 years ago. $20,000.00 was the going price for a 1 acre city lot. Farm land was around $1,000.00 or less. The days of $2.00 corn and even $6.00 corn are gone. If you want that high bushel corn its $300.00 a bag throw in some $300.00 to $500.00 land rent and the equipment to do it with. Use your own numbers on that and your labor expenses. Well it gets really crazy really fast. Now I really do feel bad for anyone with dairy or livestock. Because the government is still treating milk as a byproduct. What they forgot to tell you is that you are in the beef business. A neighbor told me he sent a cow off to market and he got $1200.00 for her. Then he said with than other $400.00 he could get a replacement that is ready to calve. That is sad. Milk is I believe is below the price of production. If milk was to carry the farm, I guess it would be time to open than other can of Red Bull. I hope they added calcium and vitamin D.
Anonymous on 3/8/2013 7:56:00 AM
|
"Look for opportunities to market some new crop corn later in February as the crop insurance price is established." It is March 6th, not February. Are you writing or just copying?
Anonymous on 3/7/2013 2:41:00 PM
|
The govt wants the farmers to raise a bumper crop of corn, wheat & beans so China can buy it at a cheap price. Kinda sounds like slavery. Grow a big crop so we can pay the farmer as little as possible cuz China wants cheap grain. I'm all in for cutting 10%. We can play the game too.
Anonymous on 3/6/2013 8:11:00 PM
|
Cash-croppers are trying to push a rope.For example,livestock was dumped on the market and freezers filled up with cheap beef and pork.Fuel blenders exercized their credits.All the while we willingly drive up the price of land and pay higher input costs and risk the weather.The market needs to tighten the rope for us.It's a long way from the supermarket cash register to our bank accounts.I waited out the market last year and was rewarded.I'm all - in again this year.
Anonymous on 3/6/2013 7:31:00 PM
|
I good example we do not need the CBOT is I am still getting record price for my Hay.No USDA or CBOT to control the price.I agree in planting to 10% less or we will cut our own neck.
Anonymous on 3/6/2013 10:51:00 AM
|
Well guys. it is simple you don't have to market grain all year long because someone said to make sales all year long. Look at how some guys lost there ass last spring. Did you find it yet?? The markets are not the same as 2 years ago or longer. Todays marketing calls for lots of bins and sell cash delivery. also be in a mine set to sell all of it in 1 sale. Why?? because that maybe the only profitable sale of the year. Remember we are in than era of high highs and low lows. If you are going to be able to stay farming you are going to have to get use to these white knuckle rides. One other thing even if US farmers grow as much as the U S D A says we are going to grow. There is still short supplies of the big three and China is short on all of them. You gentlemen have 2 silver bullet's. The first is BINS AND ON FARM STORAGE. Second is CASH SALES. Wait for the market to come to you. Those traders are really starting to cry because farmers are holding grain. Notice that the price on the gage is going up!
Anonymous on 3/6/2013 9:50:00 AM
|
You might want to thank your buddie Obama while your at it . He is going to take your corn away along with your guns :)
Anonymous on 3/6/2013 9:21:00 AM
|
It takes at least 6.00 corn to make a living.
Anonymous on 3/6/2013 2:32:00 AM
|
To the 3/4 9;07 comment..You need the CBOT for a gage. We don't need the CBOT for anything!
I feel the same way as 10.23 comment. Lets just give our corn away. All of it! The CBOT can go straight to hell with the prices, Usda too!
Anonymous on 3/6/2013 2:28:00 AM
|
The cash market will pay $10.00. Think about this, last year a lot of end users only paid $5.50 for corn early in the spring. Producers got suckered into selling early. Same thing is happening now for new crop. 10+5.50=15.50 and 15.50 / 2 = 7.75 average
Is the market doing its job? I say hell no! These 2 and 3 dollar market swings are just ridiculous! You don't give something away before you get it! Its all politics. The market has pissed producers off. Most would have sold their remaining uncontracted corn at $8.00. Now they will hold it tell it rots, or they get their $7.75 average too! I bet they will get their wish.
Keep the doors locked!
Anonymous on 3/6/2013 2:16:00 AM
|
If demand is not there for corn why not drop prices to $4.00 and see what happens HA-HA
Anonymous on 3/5/2013 10:23:00 PM
|
Prices quoted in your text do not agree with prices shown in the table at the end.
Anonymous on 3/5/2013 4:01:00 PM
|
Responding to the previous post,who can buy corn @$9.50 and use it profitably? That kind of enthusiasm rarely goes unpunished.While I believe prices have a lot of headroom,end-users have their limits.I watched Arlan on the weekend farm report.He recommended that farmers take current offers for old crop.Something changed his mind about $10 corn.
Anonymous on 3/5/2013 9:41:00 AM
|
Well guys I just got done reading the last 10 or 12 comments. Everyone of you had made a good point. Myself I have been playing grain marketer for 4 years so far. Do I know everything about marketing NO. But you do learn fast when you got skin in the game and want to do it than other year. I also market grain for others. We set a target price. Right now I have old crop corn $9.50 a bushel. I don't own the corn and the farmer is free to sell at anytime. I get paid if the farmer sets and waits. If he sells before grain gets to target price he has made more than he would have. WHAT'S THE POINT! You need the CBOT for a gage. You can look it up on your phone at anytime. It tells you if things are going up or down. But this year is extra special. You have the group of 600 in Washington. From the President down through Congress the Cabinet and a few others that are not doing anything to turn things around. I don't see any of them gaining ground either. Yes they are importing corn and soybeans into this country. Have been for years. Most are U S based companies. Why to justify owning the ships and equipment that goes with them.. Also s. American corn doesn't have toxins in it that some corn belt corn does. That solves that problem. As for the Chinese they are huge players in our market and they want cheap grain. Why? There economy is slowing down. That means they are getting poorer. They need to buy a lot of wheat because they had a short crop and Australia had a short crop. That leaves us with high priced wheat that the rest of the world didn't want and now everybody does. SO BUILD MORE BINS. IF GRAIN IS IN THE BIN SOMEONE WILL PAY TO GET IT OUT. A bunch of your analyst have been whinnying that farmers are not selling grain. Keep up the good work because they can't import enough from S America. today and about 60 days more to load a ship if your order is in.
Anonymous on 3/4/2013 9:07:00 AM
|
If there's no demand for corn or lack there of then why is the basis as strong as it is? Why has China quietly bought between 600,000 and 800,000 tons of new crop corn? Why are we importing corn from Brazil if there's NO demand? Truth is there's a lot of demand for corn, we don't have any because we had a bad crop. I thought it was the job of the market to RATION DEMAND if we were short?
Anonymous on 2/28/2013 7:40:00 PM
|
I'm in southern Ontario,we're offered 40 cents UNDER Chicago for old crop corn at the local elevator.So I'd say that there's corn available,but it's too far from the people who need it.I sold 2011 old crop for $8 in August,it just takes patience.If the bulls lost their ba!!s,I'll get it done without them.
Anonymous on 2/28/2013 6:38:00 PM
|
The government lives in a fairy tale world. They always spend it before they get it. If they don't get it, they borrow it! Same thing with grain. Its always a perfect world with them. If we don't grow it, SA will. Don't worry about it, give it away now, and worry later.
Anonymous on 2/28/2013 8:44:00 AM
|
Thie cbot has become totally irrelevant. When Japan purchases corn because
The cbot has become totally irrelevant as a price discovery tool. Cash prices for beans and corn are .60 above futures. How do you protect yourself against price moves. All they talk about is money movement and lack of demand when their are very limited amounts of product to move. Japan buys corn because S. America because has become an unreliable supplier and all the markets does is shrug their shoulders and don't react. The cbot seems to be controlled buy a few players and there volume is struggling because people are just saying to heck with you. You have become usless and may go the way of the dinosaurs. Forget the futures price only pay attention to the cash price and build bins and only sell when you want to. Throw in a few more bankrupcy's and fraud and people walk away from you never to return to do business with the futures market again
Anonymous on 2/27/2013 9:55:00 PM
|
There isn't one analyst out there that knows what the markets are going to do and if they did they would'nt be telling you and me anyway. The only difference is they get paid for their opinion. That's why before every meeting they have to say there's a risk in trading or what ever they say to cover their ass. Everyone can tell you "IF" this happens then it will do this or "IF" it does'nt then this will happen. Isn't that what their getting paid for? I've learned to listen to 1 or 2 analyst and their opinion then make a decision on my own. The more analyst you listen to the more confused you get. You have just as much chance as being right or wrong as they do.
Anonymous on 2/26/2013 6:24:00 PM
|
Why does the USDA take it upon themselves to predict acreage and yield? It's a mug's game,the fact that they do it anyway makes me suspicious.At most they could offer a high-low range with an admission that no one could possibly guess what the year has in store.Even when harvest is finished they still don't know the answer.Add China's hi-jinks to the puzzle,it's no wonder that speculators shy away from the grain market.
Anonymous on 2/26/2013 6:02:00 PM
|
The market action the last twelve months has made all of the analysts look like the media whores they are. Newsom, Gulke, Sue Martin, Arlan, none of them have gotten it even close to right yet. It is easy to see, just go through their archives. I am amazed how they come back later and try to take credit for predicting price action. If you are looking for more than just entertainment value from these websites and programs then you really are a fool.
Anonymous on 2/26/2013 4:21:00 PM
|
ARLAN IS THAT YOU?
Anonymous on 2/26/2013 4:08:00 PM
|
I believe the sooner grain producers realize they are just pawn subjects the better. Here we go again, massive acres, massive production, and the drones follow suit. If it ends up true, Jerry Gulke and the like will have finally made a right call and will let everyone know just how so. After all, one out of ten or so ain't bad as long as no one pays attention. Can we raise the most acres ever while yielding the most ever...sure. It has the same chance as my ba!! sa!! being the largest ever known also. Respectively
Anonymous on 2/26/2013 3:22:00 PM
|
It is a sad state of affairs when you can't feel you can trust the government or the USDA. But right now is the time to price crop insurance for this season. Mission accomplished in holding down payment rates. The USDA has sung a beautiful song of record crops and not a seed for this year has been planted. My vote is for a dry like a popcorn fart type year. But no the other hand it might start really raining and the Mississippi river could flood half of the summer like it did before the drought. I know its climate change. Well if it is those educated people that said if the Artic ice cap melted then Manhattan would flood. Well the ice melted, no body flooded from the melting Artic ice and ships can get through from Nova Scotia to Nome Al.. All of this in the few years I have been here. My answer for this is grow it if you can. Then bin it up until the price gets to where you can make a profit.. One other thing!! Did you know that the box that corn flakes comes in cost more than the corn to make the flakes. I would guess the guy with the corn flakes is making a profit .
Anonymous on 2/26/2013 7:26:00 AM
|
PLEASE BRING BACK ARLIN
Anonymous on 2/25/2013 3:14:00 PM
|
Ya know, that U S D A man may be on to something. When he said the rain should return to the drought area and yields would trend line. If that is the case. When it will have to start raining now to mid summer. It will also have to be that kind of spring and early summer that it is to wet to walk every week. In order to get enough water to grow the crop the U S D A man is calling for. It could turn out to be a very slow spring. The only thing growing is the algae in the puddles and field ponds where corn was last year.
Anonymous on 2/25/2013 7:01:00 AM
|
I am just curious how many years out of the last 10 that the US has produced a corn crop with an average of 163 or whatever nonsense they are talking about. Why don't they get realistic and start around 140 bpa. What would be wrong with adjusting it up in July or August if there is favorable weather. I think it hurt more people than it helped last year having the yield start up in the rafters. Too many producers sold too early and too many people held off too long to cover their feed needs.
Anonymous on 2/24/2013 7:36:00 PM
|
Correct where wrong, if spring rains are not plentiful, the crop won't make it. Then we got no wheat no corn and no hay. Meanwhile, Friday's CFTC data looked to me like the hedge funds are approaching record short positions in wheat! Wow. This bit about, oh wheat's like an alcoholic's stepchild, or a weed, it's a survivor, it'll be fine if we get good rain in March and April is absurd. Today, I even heard, it's like a cat, it's got nine lives. Those are the sentiments of blithe complacency on the part of people making money on short positions. Obviously, it's easy to be less concerned about the urgency the domestic food supply when your account at the clearinghouse is fatter by the day. But the risks are real, they should be reflected in the futures market.
longkansascitywheat.wordpress.com on 2/23/2013 11:51:00 PM
|
I will take Arlan's production number (sub 10 bil ) over the B.S. USDA number just south of 11 bil. any day! Arlan doesn't have to comply with the administations cheap food policy, he just tells the truth.
Anonymous on 2/22/2013 5:41:00 PM
|
He is right about that. But he left out the best part. The U S D A guy is convinced that corn is going to be $4.20 and beans are going to be 10.30. I think he needs to get some better what ever he is on. If this is the case for prices this year. I guess I am only going to plant to good land. The last 10 to 20 percent of poor ground with get tiled or cover cropped and rested this year. This year is starting to really look like a good year to slow down and get some other stuff done like building more bins!!!!. If corn and beans are going to be this cheap it is going to take out some of the neighbors . So it looks like there will be reasonable land and equipment to buy. Get your money right!!!!!!
Anonymous on 2/22/2013 7:04:00 AM
|
Did anybody expect anything less than what came out of the usda today? Same bullshit different year. We were told the same story last year and how did that turn out? The usda is living in a fantasy world using fictional numbers. They have no clue how many acres will be planted or what the weather will be or yield will be. Someone should of asked Glauber how many times the usda has been right in the last 5 years? Zero. We have 60+% of the corn belt in major to severe drought and their basing their yields on normal weather?? Wonder what he was drinking before he said that? He gets my vote for the most perposterious statement of the year. At least for now.
Anonymous on 2/21/2013 4:54:00 PM
|
For the 2-20-2013 writers. It sounds to me that you two hate guys that are right most of the time. I know how you feel. I am one of those people that hates to be wrong. The biggest reason I want to be right and knowledgeable is there is no money in being wrong. I have been to the university of Ass Loss. When the coarse work is right you are still looking for that piece of ass you lost years ago. Are you really sure that grain is really there????? Remember a year ago right now. The government said that there was a record crop coming for 2012. What happen. It got a little dry and a short crop. NOW this is what Arlan was getting at. Its a long time to harvest. There are some farmers who are not got to sell any more until August just in case they need grain to feed there livestock. Now if I am not in the ballpark with this when lets here from you. Out west it takes than inch of rain to raise the Mississippi river 1 foot. Right now the river is the lowest since we have been here. I believe the river is 25 feet below normal. There are reports that say there is no moisture down 5 feet. It is going to take between now and planting 25 to 30 inches of rain just to replenish both the river and soil. That is about a years worth of rain in two months. What's to say that it is going to rain this growing season. Now I am tired of the dry weather, but what happens if it is dry again this year. Arlan's prices may be low. Right now the way I see it. If you can match or beat 2012 yields you will be doing good. But if you are out there any place that drains into the Mississippi river. Better make sure your crop insurance is payed.
Anonymous on 2/21/2013 9:28:00 AM
|
Arlan also estimated that the 2012 corn crop would be 9.86 billion bushel on August 29th at 10;32 pm.. What the heck , he only missed by 920 million bushel. He definitely deserves a statue of some sort in his honor. He was the worst analyst of 2012 IMO. So move on with your life.
Anonymous on 2/20/2013 5:36:00 PM
|
Enough with the Arlan worship already. If you didn't sell old 2012 crop in August at $8 and followed the crazy guidance Arlan was proclaiming of $9-$10 corn up until he left you deserve to lose your ass. On August 28th, Arlen predicted the US would run out of corn early spring or summer. That was just plain irresponsible coverage of the markets. Serious damage was being done to corn markets when prices reached $7.50. Paul and Bryce report the facts. That is all I want. If you are looking for a savior try the local church or synagogue
Anonymous on 2/20/2013 5:00:00 PM
|
well guys in my research and reading it is starting to work. What's that you say????. For all of you who have " LOCKED THE GRAIN BIN DOORS" basis is going up even if tha CBOT is not.. what means is the pipeline is now drain out to the point that prices are going to need to go higher. ( this is where Arlan would say the market is doing it's job. GOD I MISS HIM) . These days with the price of doing business we have a new level of lows and bottom lines. $6.75 corn and $12.00 beans are not going to pay the bills and the guy who has all of the responsibilities of running a farm and hold than off farm job so he can eat. ALSO A HEADS UP. THERE IS A NEW WORLD ORDER COMEING TO THE FARMS OF THE US, BRAZIL AND ARGENTINA. THE BIG THREE ARE WANTING TO GET TOGETHER TO MAKE TRAIT ACCEPTANCE IN GMO CROP THAN EVEN PLAYING FIELD FOR THEM. There is other things that could come out of this coming together fhat could work well between the big 3 if done right.. It is you the big operators that have the most to again in this get together. Best get in on the ground floor and run with it.
Anonymous on 2/15/2013 8:10:00 AM
|
Bring back Arlin BRING BACK ARLIN BRING BACK ARLIN. These two guys are usless
Anonymous on 2/12/2013 9:01:00 PM
|
I'm going to plant 15% of my corn/beans to alfalfa/orchard grass mixed hay under irrigation. if the summer turns hot and dry, I'll have high quality pasture for the cows. if we have adequate summer moisture, I'll have high dollar hay to sell. Several nieghbors are planting oats followed by soybeans. Others planted rye and triticale last fall, followed by BMR feed this summer and then winter wheat this fall. All of these acres are under irrigation and it's over a thousand acres in just one county. These practices make USDA's number hard to believe.
Anonymous on 2/12/2013 9:05:00 AM
|
Paul, export inspections don't have a thing to do with weather the grains go up or down. The funds do that. Hopefully you'll realize that it's a rigged,manipulated,corrupt game. China has a lot to do with it also with their canceling only to buy later at a discounted price game. The best one is the usda coming out saying we left the soybean exports unchanged in the last 2 monthly supply/demand reports after YOU and everyone else report on the weekly exports the usda puts out. Our ending stocks should be going up not down. Where in the hell are all the beans then???
Anonymous on 2/11/2013 8:33:00 PM
|
Paul your projection of average wheat yields in the HRW belt is a bunch of bullshit abd you know it. Farmers keep your bins closed and you will be well rewarded.
Anonymous on 2/11/2013 3:48:00 PM
|
Here is something to think about and would tend to hack me off some. Soybeans when they hit the dock in China are $20.00 plus a bushel. Earlier this marketing season beans got up to $17.89??? who pushed beans that high. The Chinese. who also canceled boat loads of beans around Christmas ( nice present) and the market went down. I guess it is time to enjoy the Chinese New Year ( year of the Snake). Lock the bin doors wait for the supply in the pipe line to run dry and the price will go back up. As for South America they are all backed up and ships are still coming here because we can still load them out. The other thing is that is costs about 2.75 to ship a bushel of beans from the U S to China. They can afford more without making it a deal breaker.
Anonymous on 2/11/2013 10:11:00 AM
|
To the person who talks about improveing the poorer ground. That might be a good idea. If you do your planting schedule right and leave that ground to last planted. It could go for prevented planting. you could collect on that and use the money to tile or whatever the ground needs. At the very least cover crop it so it isn't gone with the wind or down the river.
Anonymous on 2/11/2013 9:50:00 AM
|
Winter Wheat crop in Colorado stayed dry.All I got was blowing dirt.The corporate farmer next to me will not chisel there blowing dirt.I good example of what happens when the family farm dies.
Anonymous on 2/10/2013 4:42:00 PM
|
To the 2:53 a.m comment," could you repeat the part where you said all about the.......things"??
Anonymous on 2/10/2013 1:18:00 PM
|
I wonder if renters will be able to put their money where their mouth is when it comes to backing down on cash rents as they said they would when prices go back down again. I just wish we could get a modest stable market. Oh wait, there is no money in that plan for Wall Street.
Anonymous on 2/10/2013 12:55:00 PM
|
Well guys with the price of the new crop. It's time that the acreage that needs improvement like tile or really deep tillage or just plant a cover crop to improve the soil. This is looking like a good year to do some of that type of work to the less productive groud you run. If 50% of farmers out there take 5 or 10% of there lowest producing ground out production and make those improvements to it. What are you really out if corn is $4.50 a bushel and soybeans are $10.00 a bushel. So which will make more moeny in the long run. I think by doing the barnyard math. Fixing and resting that poor producing ground that you have been going to improvements to, haven't because of good prices. I guess this is the year for it. That way you have all summer to get it done and you can do the little extras that make a big difference in how the improvements work. Why not take that money it takes to buy the all of the inputs from now to the time you load out the sold grain. take all that money and invest it into the fields that need help to become " good" ground. Or have fun selling grain that will be not even enough be worth throwing away.
Anonymous on 2/10/2013 2:53:00 AM
|
In 2012 the American Farmer did not produce a surplus. The USDA always insists a surplus carryover. The farmer is viewed as a weak hand.
Seventh Time on 2/10/2013 2:38:00 PM
|
If you want cheap food it takes a heck of a lot more than low grain prices. High diesel & gas prices, advertising, packaging ect have a far greater impact on food than grain prices. If the market thinks there's gonna be a surplus then why should we as farmers produce a surplus? Obviously looking at new crop prices today the market does'nt want 99 mil acres of corn so why plant that many? The market thinks the farmer is dumb enough to do it so it's showing up in new crop prices. 2
Anonymous on 2/9/2013 3:24:00 PM
|
As long as USDA always shows a crop carryover,
the market will price everything at a surplus value.
That is why the USDA does the reports. Remember....CHEAP FOOD POLICY!
Sixth Time on 2/8/2013 3:51:00 PM
|
Paul, could you or anybody else explain why the USDA left the soybean exports unchained? Everybody knows exports have been off the charts but funny they left them unchanged again. Here's another example of market manipulation at it's best. They tell us every week how much is sold or exported but the monthly supply/demand is a whole differnt story. Proverbs 20 verse 10 says it best " different weights and different measures, both of them are an abomination to the Lord". Enough said.
Anonymous on 2/8/2013 2:35:00 PM
|
Bins will come into play in the near future. If only every farmer had them, we would have alot more control of the market.
Anonymous on 2/8/2013 5:39:00 AM
|
Paul, are there places in the world that have to quit producing corn and beans if our current price premiums should happen to disappear?
Anonymous on 2/7/2013 8:05:00 PM
|
Time to build bins. If you can't sell for a profit, just keep it.
Anonymous on 2/7/2013 7:55:00 PM
|
The circle of Gossip and Jest -the coffee shop- has been a little amused and at the same time disgruntled with the forecast of increasing old crop ending stocks with every weak corn export report and ethanol plant shut down. The overall conclusion was; "It doesn’t matter who uses or doesn't use the corn; for when it is all said and done, we will use it all." Freeport, IL
Anonymous on 2/7/2013 4:49:00 PM
|
Has anyone had a problem finding corn seed? Word is because of poor germination last year, seed is inn short supply! Farmers are forced to try off brand less desirable variety's!
I wonder if the USDA has this calculated in their forecast?
Anonymous on 2/7/2013 4:41:00 PM
|
The only reason the CBO would come out with numbers like these is to manipulate the markets. They don't have a clue what yields are gonna be. The markets are obviously telling us they don't want that many beans or corn but if the farmer is dumb enough to over produce prices will tank.
Anonymous on 2/6/2013 8:45:00 PM
|
Only a fool would believe anything that would come
out of the United States Congress. They would not
have any idea how to plant or harvest a crop. This
crop projection is pure BS!!
Fifth Time on 2/6/2013 5:14:00 PM
|
Looks like we do need to cut acres by 10% or we will cut are own neck.I am in !!
Anonymous on 2/6/2013 4:25:00 PM
|
My understanding is that to be truly organic there can not be any contaminates in the finished plant product. Like the roundup gene. My understanding was the the Roundup gene was stable and would not move to other plants. Well that doesn't seem to be the case. My best guess is the the organic growers have been damaged by this technology. I have been damaged by it because the chemical called Roundup would kill all weeds and was reasonably priced and one pass took all the weeds out. Now the roundup gene has jumped across species like the pig weeds, lambs quarter, even quack grass will all grow out of it. Since the guys that market roundup ready corn soybean and other crops own a patent on that technology and have made some organic growers lives hell. Why because they have this technology in there certified organic crop ( like canola). If this technology is in certified organic they are in violation of their certification and have been damaged by this technology that is supposed to be stable. I may be wrong here. If you have a bull that gets loose and does damage or breeds a cow that was not to be bred. The owner of that bull has to pay for the damages. The owners of Roundup technology have a bull running loose and they don't want to have to do something about the damage to the organic growers. They have worked very hard to keep the gene out of their crops. If not they are no longer organic. Now that would be major damage to that grower which one of you are ready to be decertifed?
Anonymous on 2/1/2013 10:44:00 PM
|
Prisoner's dilemma: Everyone's better off if everyone plants less acres of corn. But every individual farmer is best off to plant the maximum acres and take advantage of the situation. You need a collective plan, not just a rally call, as much as you may dislike the word "collective."
longkansascitywheat.wordpress.com on 1/28/2013 9:39:00 PM
|
Why should we as farmers plant 98-99 million acres of corn. If we do and have a half way decent crop prices will drop. Why cut are own throat? We still have 600 mb on hand which is still quite a bit. I say keep the carry over less than a billion bu and keep prices where we can still make a profit. We all know where prices are headed if we have close to a 2 billion bu carry over or more. We hold all the cards and planting that many acres will only make us have a losing hand.
Anonymous on 1/28/2013 5:24:00 PM
|
The $15 Soybean price is only 59 cents away. Why does that seem like such a hard goal to reach?5
Fourth Time on 1/25/2013 7:19:00 PM
|
monsanto roundup ready soybeans are cross polinating with non gmo soybean causeing those farmer to lose those markets this is now happing at blyth ont canada monsanto will not even send a rep out to check out the prolem instead will go after the said farmer for court costs what has happened in at least one case is aprox 1% of the plants have 1 bean in one pod near the top of the non gmo soybean plant that is darker and tests positive for the roundup gene stephen webster blyth ont canada 2262221429
Anonymous on 1/15/2013 6:50:00 PM
|
how about price matching?a bushel of wheat,or cor or beans exactly the same price of a barrel of oil.opec will lower their prices.mr nice guy has gotten nowhere with opec.
Anonymous on 1/10/2013 3:32:00 PM
|
Paul, the ONLY reason the grains are going down is because the funds & china are manipulating the market. The funds cause the market to go up or down. China cancles beans only to buy them back cheaper. You also said the grains were worried about the fiscal cliff, well the stock market has been on a tare & what have the grains done?? Go down. It's all about money flow. When the funds want to sell it will go down & when they decide to buy it will go up. Why did the grains go down the other day when the stock market was up over 300 points & everything else was up? I asked 5 different commodity brokers & not one of them knew the answer. It was because the FUNDS did'nt want them to.
Anonymous on 1/4/2013 4:58:00 PM
|
Get rid of the USDA and end the cheap food policy in this country!
Anonymous on 12/30/2012 5:11:00 PM
|
Notice how congress cannot agree on anything EXCEPT extending the farm bill! 1949 parity law would have been great! I'm so sick of my fellow DUMB ASS farmers voting for democrats !!!
Anonymous on 12/30/2012 5:04:00 PM
|
The 2:32 comment is exactly right. I don't hear anybody complaining about the price of an ipad or iphone. What about the outragous prices you pay for a beer & hotdog @ a sporting event. Over $4 for a 20oz coke? Considering you get roughly 40 loaves of bread out of a bushle of wheat @ 3.00 that's $120 out of 1 bu. Even @ $18/bu is still cheap.
Anonymous on 12/27/2012 7:54:00 PM
|
1949 permanent law (farm program) sounds pretty good to me. Corn 12.00 bu. , Beans 28.90 bu. , Wheat 18.30 bu. , Beef cattle 292.00 per cwt. , Hogs 160 per cwt, Milk 52.10 per cwt. . They say milk in the stores would go to 6-8.00 dollars a gallon, well HELL, thats where it should be anyway! The people that whine about a gallon of milk being 4.29 a gallon and then set a 12 pack of soda right next to it for 5.29 and dont say a word about that. Im damn sure the dairy farmer works alot harder and has way more input costs into that gallon of milk , than the" soda farmer" (sugar and water)does?! Lets not fall off the fiscal cliff, Lets JUMP OFF smiling!
Anonymous on 12/27/2012 2:32:00 PM
|
I can understand people cashing out in order to avoid higher taxes in 2013.I doubt that anyone will give up trying to make a profit.
Anonymous on 12/26/2012 5:07:00 PM
|
I wonder how many speculators has ever feed cattle in blow zero weather.But we should do it for a loss.I think it is time we become price makers and stead of price takers.Now Obama is going to want us to give what is left after we die to him. But my kids are want the wall street job,not freezing to feed cows for a loss. If we keep being the goat wall street will own us all !!!
Anonymous on 12/26/2012 11:36:00 AM
|
Well guys... merry Christmas!!! As you know those LOSERS in Washington may be giving diary farmers the best present of all this new year. When we fall over the cliff. According to ABC's. Good Morning America. The price of milk will double in the stores. That is because we go back to 1949 AG law. I guess that will pull dairy farmers out of the beef business that produces milk as a by product. Congratulations diary men now you can get down to the business of making milk instead of marketing beef to keep things going. It is sad the a cull cow is worth as much as a new 1st calf heifer. On average $300 to 600 dollars is all that separates them. The milk check is the cash flow and the beef end is what pays bills.
Now don't get me wrong that dairy farmers are needing more money. But to double the price of milk in one day? At first the loses will be great. If this was done over a year or 18 months then you have a change to budget for it as a consumer. As I see it there are going to be winners and a lot of losers . Over the last 50 years dairy cow numbers have stayed the same. Dairy farm owners, I hate to say it, but have been dropping like flies. This should help to create the super mega farms in the near future. Then those few farms will be able to set the price of milk to suit there bottom line instead being price takers of what is offered. As for the rest of us farmers. No one had better die because there will be very little to pass on to who is left to take over. ( the dead tax). As for all the living there are going to be some really beautiful taxes for you that we know about now and some more of Obama's health care requirements sprung on to you.
TO ALL HAVE A QUITE CHRISTMAS , as for the NEW YEAR. I HOPE WE ALL GET THROUGH IT. HAVE FUN.
Anonymous on 12/24/2012 9:13:00 AM
|
Agreed.Farmers can't depend on speculators to drive up prices.During the drought some said they didn't want to get blamed for food inflation.Also,margin requirements are a big deal now.How many investors were blind-sided by China's move this week? Farmers will need to be patient if they want the true value for their grain.When will we get another opportunity like the one we have now?
Anonymous on 12/21/2012 3:53:00 PM
|
Well guys the last comment has made a very good point.. If you want to cheapen something cancel a bunch of orders that were bought. If you want the price of grain to go up. Well there is always one way to get it to go up. Don't sell any for a couple weeks. That seems to be the case in New York state. Earlier this week cash beans were $14,95 delivered. The CBOT was around $14.10. I know it is raining and snowing across the country. That's now. Just like last year the people in the know said there would be record planting and yield. Now that is over, how did that work out. Seems we are tight on grain. But here is the rub. Even if we do grow what Imforma says in the big picture we are still on the tight side of things. No need to sell now because the market is going down. South America has had some problems already. There pressuring the markets won't start until there harvest in mid February. Want grain to go up take a few days off and enjoy the season.
The Chinese have cancel orders in the past to depress grain prices. After the fall who is buying the break. The Chinese will be buying boat loads when the price starts to improve. If you want to be farming next year, you better be profitable now. If not the neighbors won't mine bit about adding a piece of your operation to there's. A SIDE NOTE:: on the Chinese grain trade board in China. The price of soybeans is just north of $20.00 a bushel. It cost??? $2.50 to $3.00 a bushel to get beans there. Those guys are making money at that rate transporting beans. Just remember the Chinese were buying beans and alot of them when beans were over 17.50 a bushel. Something to think about.
Anonymous on 12/21/2012 6:18:00 AM
|
No mystery why China cancelled orders.They just knocked prices down a dollar.All the charts and chatter didn't predict it. Speculators must be intimidated when one of the biggest buyers of grain has a few $trillion to play with.
Anonymous on 12/20/2012 3:29:00 PM
|
Well said,anon12/12/12.Control costs.Farmers have a good public image,it's been earned.
Anonymous on 12/12/2012 7:08:00 PM
|
All this talk about market manipulation would make it seem like we are dealing with $3.00 corn and $6.00 beans. Though it certainly has a laundry list of faults, it is not the market's fault that we get in a bidding war with our neighbor over cash rent. It's not the market's fault that you pay ultra-inflated prices for new equipment when the engine is barely broke in on the tractor you already have, or the new piece is marginally relevant to your operation but "everybody else has one". There are things we can all do on our own farms to make our operations run a little leaner. I see nothing wrong with waiting for the pendulum to swing back your way before selling your grain, but I really hate to be labeled a market manipulator. I hate to be in the same boat as those who pump our oil. I think that the animosity we receive from the rest of the country would become somewhat warrented if we were to take a deliberate step down that path. We should be thankful for what we have.
Anonymous on 12/12/2012 2:05:00 PM
|
Gentlemen
The weather will dictate the production for next year and all indication are it will be
dry. We will loose the crop many time before we will harvest it and those are the the
time to sell. Take your time and watch the market. We do not have much sub soil moisture.
A Farmer
Anonymous on 12/7/2012 8:22:00 PM
|
This for the man who brought up South American grain to the east coast. Now correct me if I am wrong. The company is Cargill bring in corn. They have feeding operations there. They paid $.50 less a bushel down there for it. Then they loaded on one of there boats and hauled it up here. It was clean grain with no toxin problems. Question? What market was the meat going? The government said that there is enough corn here until next harvest. So follow the money. What did it do for them. The market went down some. Cargill put assets to work in 2 countries made money by doing so. The bonus was the markets went down and there hasn't been anymore talk of corn from South America. They added corn to the market to make the price to go down. I guess they new what they were doing. Sure did help out there bottom line. Bottom line. They took a risk and were rewarded for it. Someone should be getting a very nice bonus check about now.
Anonymous on 12/7/2012 8:26:00 AM
|
Guys... There is no strike involved here. This will be just straightforward marketing. You starve the market for grain. When the market goes up you sell. The market gluts prices fall for awhile and come backup. Then sell high. As for the rest of the world. There still is a real grain shortage out there. As for grain imported to the east coast. Well they don't want to deal with grain with toxin in it. HAS THAT IMPORTATION OF CORN REALLY LOWERED THE PRICE HERE IN THIS COUNTRY THAT MUCH!! So lets all try something say to the end of the first week of January. We all know until then the markets don't do much. For those of you who need to sell through that period do some. If you need cash to operate for taxes reasons sell what you need. If it has been contracted deliver it. AS FOR the rest of you just hold the grain back. Dry up your spot cash deliveries and take sometime off. Keep track of the markets if they go up you have your answer. There is,, alot down pressure out there. Like the cliff. If I could get 60% of the grain farmers to hold back 20% percent of cash deliveries until end of the first week of January. Then we would all see the results. If the reporters are all a buzz about no grain movement off the farm and prices are raising. Then we will all have than answer. $7.00 corn is good now. But will it be good enough next year to pay the bills and be able to farm the following year. Also it going to take real money to buy the stuff needed for us to feed the world.
Anonymous on 12/7/2012 7:58:00 AM
|
There are better ways improve profitability.Besides,other grain producing countries will take advantage of an American farm strike. South American corn is already supplying some south-east livestock operations.
Anonymous on 12/6/2012 7:05:00 PM
|
We had a farm strike before.We can do a 10% set a side.This message needs to appear on other social networks.I am in.
Anonymous on 12/6/2012 10:43:00 AM
|
Many of our input suppliers are charging us what the market will bear.Willingness to pay is inflating our costs.A dollar saved is a dollar earned.
Anonymous on 12/5/2012 5:56:00 AM
|
Guys....Remember this spring when the reporters said that grain was tight and the bin Doors were locked. That was because the price of grain was down. Most everyone was sitting on there grain. CBOT come up some but basis was way up to get grain flowing again. Then the drought came along to really shorten the crop and look at what the price was at just before and through harvest. SO HEAR IS THE DEAL. If you have contracted grain deliver it, if you need cash to operate sell some. As for the rest of you hold back and don't sell any until the 1st of the new year. That should raise the price on all grains. Take a vacation off of sellng grain and enjoy the season, but keep track of the market.. If OPEC can create a shortage why can't we farmers. Look at what they did with your inputs. ( seed, fertilizer, diesel fuel ) . None of the has gone down. So how well are you going to do with say $6.50 corn or less. How is going to pencil out for you're operation and any new equipment purchases. Or to buy another farm because the kid wants to come home and farm.
Anonymous on 12/5/2012 5:43:00 AM
|
To the 12/4 comment... Your 100% correct, does Deere,CIH,Apple or anybody else sell anything below their cost of production? No and either should we.
Anonymous on 12/4/2012 9:48:00 PM
|
Guys..... Bottom line, grain in the world is short. If most everyone that can afford to hold back 20 to 30 percent of there crop and create than OPEC type of shortage.( for those that are tight on cash sell what you need to get through and pay the bills.) The price will go up. Look what the shortage of good farm land has done. Why not grain. Farmers have very little control over the other things. You do have control of grain and the price of it. If the drought was not as bad as it was. We all know where the price of grain would be. BELOW COST OF PRODUCTION. Mr 10% is right, if you want more land and/or big boy toys "well its nothing that money can't fix". If there isn't enough money to keep it all together then. Well we all been to those auctions that were not retirement sales.
Anonymous on 12/4/2012 5:31:00 AM
|
If you can't plant 10% less;with the prices we are at even today,too much overhead!! i.e. cash rent,paid too much for land,too many toys ect.WILL catch up with poor managers eventually.Anonymous.
Anonymous on 12/3/2012 8:51:00 PM
|
Guys!!!! If you want higher prices for grain. Sell enough to cover expenses and store the rest until prices get high. If the grain is in the bin on the farm. The price will go up to get you to sell it. If everyone holds back 20% or more of grain with no contracts on it. It is stored as cash grain. That way no body has to plant less just hold as much grain back as possible and store it. That way you have created the same type of shortage as OPEC. You see what holding back did for them. Think about it every time you pump diesel fuel into something. Remember they still have billions of barrels of oil to sell to us yet are they are still short on oil. We have done everything else why not why be profitable for a change?
Anonymous on 12/3/2012 5:31:00 AM
|
How could you possibly convince all farmers to cut acreage by ten percent? Won't happen,but feel free to do your thing.
Anonymous on 11/28/2012 6:39:00 AM
|
I agree we should cut our acres by 10%.Obama going to raise our taxes let us raise our revenue.We take all the risk it time for us to have a reward.!!Thank for the post anonmyous 11/11/2012
Anonymous on 11/23/2012 4:25:00 PM
|
Thank you Freeport, IL
longkansascitywheat.wordpress.com on 11/17/2012 11:20:00 AM
|
Most of what a non-grower needs to or wants to know about winter wheat growing can be found in this K State post http://www.ksre.ksu.edu/library/CRPSL2/c529.pdf . It is hard to find a correlation between historical winter wheat crop conditions provide by USDA and the final wheat production. (Winter wheat is a survivor but ratings in most states this fall are very low or record poor.) Even spring ratings do not point to a constant result unless things are very poor in the late spring time frame. Then one could expect poorer yields. The saying that winter wheat production (Hard Red) goes the way of Kansas still seems to hold true. Freeport, IL
Anonymous on 11/16/2012 7:57:00 AM
|
I agree with anonymous 11/11/2012, a 10 % idle reduction would pay great dividends in the near future.
Look what it has done for OPEC the last 30 years.Anonymous 11/13/2012
Anonymous on 11/13/2012 8:17:00 PM
|
Tom, Could you (or a knowledgeable reader) attempt a brief characterization of the risks to the HRW wheat crop at this stage of development? What should we watch for? With a return of favorable weather, are prospects good for a healthy crop?
longkansascitywheat.wordpress.com on 11/13/2012 7:39:00 PM
|
"One of the biggest negatives for the soybean complex is the negative technical."Thanks,explains everything.I'll wait until sanity returns.
Anonymous on 11/12/2012 11:16:00 PM
|
As producers, we should idle 10% of our acreage every year starting in 2013. Lets stop working for nothing. That woyld take the expected corn acerage down to 87.5 million acers and beans down around 72 million, that would ensure us the prices we need to make a good living. Lets do it
Anonymous on 11/11/2012 3:53:00 PM
|
Thanksgiving dinner increase you gave today (11/8) was 0.57 % not 5.7%.
Anonymous on 11/8/2012 3:47:00 PM
|
USDA may have room to drop corn use for ethanol by 150 million bushel. This would come from the export of ethanol. The Energy Department, in their October 25, 2012 monthly release of consumption, shows net ethanol exports for the month of July, 2012 at 502 million barrels. This is down 3,100 barrels per month from the 2011-12 corn marketing year’s average.
A model was developed to try to explain the decline. It seems ethanol price is now more directly tied to corn price than crude oil price. The R2 for corn is 0.76 while Brent is now basically 0.0. Their also seems to be a correlation between corn – ethanol crush margin and ethanol exports; R2 = 0.65. The logic seems to be; the higher the corn price becomes the lower the margin become, the less ethanol is produced and less ethanol is exported. An error in predicting ethanol price seems to be + or - $0.15 per gallon. This error is enough to move plants to production and thus exporting. Of coarse foreign demand plays a part in price discovery (may in part explain the error). The reports of more Brazilian sugar heading for the stills may keep ethanol prices on the lower side of the forecast. An average price of $7.00 per bushel was used in the model’s projection. Every $0.50 per bushel change in corn price is negatively correlated to a 23 million bushel change in export production. So it appears, at least from the model, stronger ethanol export demand is needed to overcome “high” corn price if USDA’s corn used for ethanol target is to be reached. Freeport, IL
Anonymous on 11/2/2012 10:57:00 AM
|
At 3.66 mmt corn exports last month and 13.1 mmt year to date, Brazil could hit UDSA's export target (16 mmt) this month, if the pace is close to current levels. If World demand continues strong, importers could switch back to the US as South American supplies are used up. The questions become; How low will they draw their stocks, How big will the saffrina crop be and Has the relatively slow start to soybean planting already reduced hectars to the double cropped corn? Freeport, IL
Anonymous on 11/1/2012 5:18:00 PM
|
I would like to know why everytime I open something like the weather or markets on this farm futures website why an annoying ad pops up in the middle of the screen. It's rather riduculous and am currently looking for a different homepage.
Anonymous on 10/17/2012 6:58:00 PM
|
People complain about the government's numbers being a little and damaging to our markets, but the government threw a pretty good sized bone to traders in the last report, saying that commodity supplies are still tight and traders chose to spit it out. I say the arguement against the governemnt is officially null and void. Traders do what they want.
Anonymous on 10/17/2012 3:33:00 PM
|
To answer the question about South American corn. All I can relay is that price and availability for large livestock operations on the east coast has allowed the opportunity for Brazilian corn to have the advantage over U.S. Midwest corn. The variables involved in this decision will continue to be a moving target.--Tom Leffler
Anonymous on 10/14/2012 8:41:00 PM
|
A few answers. Farm Futures will continue to do its crop production estimates, which are produced in advance of key major reports. Bryce Knorr coordinates that data (and always has) - and that will continue. Thursday's numbers brought a bump up, then that slump. The challenge ahead is rationing demand. I'll get Tom to weigh in here this week on some of your comments. Thanks for your feedback - Willie Vogt, Editorial Director
Willie Vogt on 10/14/2012 7:03:00 AM
|
Tom...Can you come up with some serious analysis of the price threat from South American corn for domestic demand? Remember the July report guys? Bear reversal the following session, then the market went straight up...
longkansascitywheat.wordpress.com on 10/13/2012 12:23:00 PM
|
Commercial corn buyers probably have enough to get through into the new year.The farmers who can wait it out will be rewarded.
Anonymous on 10/12/2012 7:30:00 PM
|
So-called experts, wow. Got a lotta corn you say, news is, US now imports substantial amount of corn. Is corn the new wheat, where exporters seasonally rotate supply exhaustion? Is the US the new Egypt when it comes to importing grains? If you weren't Anonymous, we could call you on your facile c***.
longkansascitywheat.wordpress.com on 10/11/2012 12:09:00 AM
|
Is farmfutures going to keep doing their crop production estimates? because with arlan they always said an estimate of the crop before a major report
Anonymous on 10/10/2012 9:52:00 PM
|
If we have so much corn than why are the basis levels about half of a year ago. Everybody thought that at 96 million acres we would be swimming in corn just goes to show everyone that God is in control and that the next time their is too much rain to quit bitching about it cause he can turn it off like a light switch.
Anonymous on 10/9/2012 10:13:00 PM
|
i wish these so called experts would quit predicting these high prices, and then the prices not getting there, some have said 10 dollar corn and 20 dollar beans, well never see it, unless we have a bad drought from ohio to coloradso next year,,right now we have a lot of corn, over 10 billion bu, and next year we will plant 100 million acres, with a good crop it will be 3.50 a bushel.
Anonymous on 10/9/2012 8:37:00 PM
|
A study of market analysts revealed their basic personality (pessimistic/optimistic) affected their market analysis. The pessimistic personality analyst tended to give "better" advice in down markets, while the optimistic personality analyst gave "better" advice in up markets. So who do you listen to for market advice? Yourself. Learn to use all the marketing tools: options, futures, cash, etc. Develop a strategy to place a floor to protect the downside and leave the topside open. Be your own marketing expert. Analysts only have limited information (black swans!)....and a viewpoint that is bias because of personality.
Anonymous on 10/3/2012 11:46:00 PM
|
Great, now Monsanto even gets attention in predicting future grain acres. Tom, please don't report on Monsanto's guesses. After all, they know their past robust market share of seed is in a fast decline. The glyphosphate gene is done and then some, only they continue to piss off producers by forcing it down our throat with the upcharge. Liberty will soon be a huge player in the north markets as it has been in the south. Monsanto is all about "watching out for their stock holders", so they will be telling them inflated acre predictions so the investers will think their is still a huge market share for Monsanto.
Anonymous on 10/3/2012 5:53:00 PM
|
Tom is doing an excellent job of reporting. Just the facts with no self righteous proclamations about price discovery.
Anonymous on 10/3/2012 9:28:00 AM
|
I agree with the 8:07 comment that charts lead to self-fulfilling prophecies.Using the past to predict the future surely misses some of the daily chaos that affects commodities.I'm amused by chartists who claim that yesterday's market agrees with their call.The most important factor in this year's and next year's market is unpredictable.We also don't know what the consumer will do when food prices rise.
Anonymous on 10/3/2012 5:54:00 AM
|
Tom...The reports are a good read, and informative...So, the Ag Secretary says we're not going to run out of corn? Sell! Sell! Sell! That's got to be bear food, after all, I don't remember any other incidents of cabinet-level officers reassuring the market we wouldn't run out of US corn. Did he make any similar comments about the beans I wonder? What's that global supply-to-use again on the soybeans? Has anyone tried to feed a hog a weekly price chart?
longkansascitywheat.wordpress.com on 10/3/2012 12:59:00 AM
|
I find Tom's writing hard to understand. For example, what does "Russia has 5 mmt of wheat intervention stocks to use to hold wheat prices my inline than to ban export sales." mean? I just don't get it.
Anonymous on 10/2/2012 11:53:00 PM
|
What the heck happened to our drought? Out of sight, out of mind? Are people really this near-sighted? I guess this is what happens whe you put people in charge of our markets who are more concerned with gimmics and charts that produce self-fulfilling prophecies than actual fundamentals. I can stomach the swig in corn but this bean market is absolutely INSANE. To the 2:55 comment.....If $8.49 turns out to be the blow off top, that is not a far stretch from the $9.00 bottom end Arlan talked about. I would assume you also remember that he said prolonged high prices would also ration demand if a blow off top didn't occur? Right? We also have to keep in mind that nothing has really changed in the way of moisture for the 2013 crop. Realistically, as of right now today, there is no reason to expect next year to be any different than this year. But then again, out of sight, out of mind right? There has to be a cute little chart somewhere that will make it rain.
Anonymous on 10/2/2012 8:07:00 PM
|
Seven to Eight dollars is not $9-$10. That is what Arlan proclaimed corn prcies must hit to adequately "do its job" over and over again every day it seemed like even when the $8.49 blow off top was in.. And that is where he lost his credibilty. Export markets and ethanol margins clearly show that adequate rationing began at $7.50.One more test of the seasonal bottom is likely next month. After that corn will settle into a very fair range of $7-$8 dollars.
Anonymous on 10/1/2012 2:55:00 PM
|
Arlan's arguments were, corn stocks are tighter than the market is trading, that if it couldn't hold eight dollars it would test 7.70, that if it couldn't hold 7.70 it would test 7.49, that if it couldn't hold 7.49 it could test "much lower." How in the world can he have hurt his credibility? So, a few people went short and hit their 7-dollar target, that's no reflection on the commentary I've found here.
longkansascitywheat.wordpress.com on 9/29/2012 10:59:00 PM
|
And the USDA needs to explain why they have changed 2011 soybean production again. Seems like those numbers were in long long ago. Are all of their numbers fudged to promote specific policy agenda? More correctly, how much are their numbers always fudged??
K. Vonschaumburg on 9/29/2012 7:04:00 AM
|
What Arlan had said is correct. He always warned of the speculation behavior which anyone marketing since 2008 is all to aware of. He also pointed out the flaws that USDA has made and we all assume they will again soon. Fact still remains, we have horrible production. I think even Farm Futures estimates are still to high. Even if we export nothing, we do not have enough REAL production to meet the remaining demand.
Anonymous on 9/27/2012 7:59:00 AM
|
It's too soon to say that Arlan was wrong.Some people obviously wanted him to stick to the script.
Anonymous on 9/26/2012 10:56:00 PM
|
Huh. That doesn't make any sense.
Anonymous on 9/26/2012 5:40:00 PM
|
If you know what effect Armaggedon will have on grain prices,you're the chosen one for Arlan's job.It's only September,Revelations is a long ways away.
Anonymous on 9/26/2012 5:20:00 PM
|
Where Arlan got it wrong in my opinion, was his stubbornness in admitting that corn prices were the result of drought conditions and the related speculation that comes with a weather market. No one can predict the behavior of speculators. The fundamental grain balance sheets and Fed monetary policies are more bullish now than in August, yet the prices are falling off a cliff. So to repeatedly prophesize armegeddon level grain prices hurt his credibility. All I want is the news. And Tom is doing an excellent job. If you are looking for an all knowing savior for marketing your grain try your local church or synagogue.
Anonymous on 9/26/2012 4:13:00 PM
|
Arlan's column reminded me of the free legal advice that's available online and from weekly newspaper columns.How would you feel if you had paid good money for guidance that cost you a small fortune?Here was a guy who called it right and his advice was free to anyone who can read.Bet some marketing consultants got reamed out,if not fired.Also,you can bet that there's some thin-skinned boys at the USDA.Here's what I have to say about them.Washington currently borrows 40% of its operating budget and China is the biggest lender to Washington.Conflict of interest?Nah.
Anonymous on 9/23/2012 6:52:00 PM
|
For the last couple of months,it seems to me that Arlan was paying lip service to the technical charts,then telling us that supply and demand mattered more.Many of us agree,we don't need a guru to figure it out.There have been many posts here from people unhappy with his pep talks to the grain farmers.Some corporations,American and foreign,must have been unhappy as well.I learned a lot from his writings here and I'll use that knowledge in future decisions.
Anonymous on 9/23/2012 3:09:00 PM
|
Tom…I am enjoying your commentary…Is it true Arlan went turncoat, and is behind the bean collapse at WaterStreetAg, leaving you to explain the event to information-hungry Farm Futures readers?
Anonymous on 9/21/2012 11:13:00 PM
|
Willie Vogt here - thanks for your comments about what we need from our new Market Analyst - we are in the hunt for one now and I'm optimistic about getting readers someone they'll trust soon. As for your ideas on Twitter - please start following www.Twitter.com/FarmFutures - that's where market and news tweets will start showing up in the future. And we'll make that clear too thanks.
Anonymous on 9/20/2012 4:02:00 PM
|
We need tweets on market swings throughout the day from whomever takes Arlan's spot.
Anonymous on 9/19/2012 10:27:00 PM
|
Finished a small NE Illinois field of corn. We got a few showers this summer from the Lake Michigan effect (the big rains fell in downtown Chicago all summer). On the same round in a 1/2 mile field, yields ranged from 12 to 175 bu/acre. Moisture is all over the place. Is there any hope FF will get someone to tweet as did Arlan. I'm not a trader just a farmer that liked his comments especially when the market took erratic swings. He took a lot of anxiety out of my worries, gave me some idea of why what was happening was happening.
Anonymous on 9/19/2012 6:57:00 AM
|
Sure hope there are a lot of folks needing fiber in their diet because there isn't a lot of corn around. Guess maybe they could eat the dry stalks in some kind of breakfast food....Sick and tired of the manipulation going on with the grain prices........just saying!
Kansas Comments
Anonymous on 9/18/2012 8:13:00 PM
|
Ever wonder if exports are so slow because there just isn't any Grain available to ship?
Anonymous on 9/18/2012 4:45:00 PM
|
This summer's record corn prices would need to ration approximately 287 million bushel of corn per month (one third of last year's monthly usage), beginning in July for the USDA to estimate 1.181 billion bushel in the ending stocks.Remember most of the corn delivered these months was traded at much lower deferred prices. USDA has some explaining to do.
Anonymous on 9/18/2012 4:42:00 PM
|
The next big catalyst for corn is the September 28th grain stocks report. I suspect this is the surprise the USDA will finally drop on the markets. The last two reports have been very bullish. USDA currently has 2011-2012 ending stocks estimate at 1.181 billion bushel on September 1st 2012. Stocks were 3.149 billion bushel on June 1st. Doing the math, usage would be reduced to 1.968 billion bushel for the last 3 months. Average 656 million bushel of corn per month. Remember corn was still relatively cheap in June, if you could find it, so usage probably stayed around the 2010-2011 average of 847 million bushel. That means usage/disappearance in July and August would have to drop to only 561 million per month average which we know did not happen. A ten percent decline was all that ethanol reports and feed usage reports are reflecting, not 33%. Early corn harvest will be added to 2011-2012 carryout , but it won't be that much. I estimate we get a big surprise reduction of the carry out by about 400 million bushel bringing the revised carryout to 781 million bushel. All things being equal that reduces 2012-2013 ending stocks to 333 million bushel, a new low percentageof usage. Let the fireworks begin.
Anonymous on 9/18/2012 3:56:00 PM
|
See Arlan Suderman @ WaterStreetAg for those wishing to know where he went . FF has some big shoes to fill finding a replacement analyst for Arlan as we looked forward to hearing his comments and the trust we found in those comments . With the bottom falling out of these markets and no Arlan this site feels like a morgue. Lets get this thing rockin again guys !
Anonymous on 9/18/2012 3:03:00 PM
|
i have a petition for tom... Could you please write about the weather that affects commodities trading as arlan did in the section "commodities weather group"? I know that you aren´t arlan but that section was very usefull especially for people like me who don´t live in the US.
Thanks
Anonymous on 9/18/2012 9:39:00 AM
|
Does anybody know where Arlan took his skills to or what he's planning to do? I enjoyed reading & listening to his comments.
Anonymous on 9/18/2012 9:02:00 AM
|
In my corner of the corn belt 85% of the producers carry Revenue Protection with harvest option.
The fall corn price will be set in November. Is it possible that there is an orchestrated attempt to hammer prices lower until the fall price is set? Who would this help most? The positive side would be helping those producers buy back sold bushels that they were not able to produce. Lower prices could stimulate demand again and then watch prices soar!
Anonymous on 9/17/2012 8:53:00 PM
|
Today's market activity had nothing to do with supply and demand.I bet this was about squeezing out weak longs.If nothing else,should help the exporters.I'm not sure that's a good thing for America.
Anonymous on 9/17/2012 7:22:00 PM
|
Willie Vogt Editorial Director here: Arlan Suderman is moving on to other chores, in the meantime - until we bring in another analyst - Farm Futures is happy to have Tom Leffler filling in. Tom has been helping with daily commentary chores as needed off and on for several years. His perspective in the markets is well respected and we hope you offer him the same feedback as you have Arlan these past few years. We'll keep you posted as we bring in a new analyst. Thanks for reading.
Willie Vogt on 9/17/2012 6:51:00 AM
|
I certainly hope you are staying in the business of markets. A true gift of understanding you have. I hope to read you again and good luck sir.
Anonymous on 9/16/2012 11:14:00 AM
|
I appreciate the good comments. Thank you. I'll say more at Twitter.com/ArlanFF101 next week.
Arlan on 9/14/2012 9:51:00 PM
|
Thanks for all your advice.
Anonymous on 9/14/2012 9:01:00 PM
|
Happy trails,Arlan.If,somewhere down the road,you go short on corn,beans or wheat,you're forgiven in advance.
Anonymous on 9/14/2012 6:11:00 PM
|
Deep appreciation for all your info, tweets, and analysis since I have been following you Arlan. WIth your accuracy in predicting the markets, I can imagine your worth to yourself and others, so I can understand a job change, if that was the case. As a farmer, I have enjoyed and benefited from your input. I will miss that. Thanks. Scott County Eastern Iowa farmer.
Anonymous on 9/14/2012 5:25:00 PM
|
Ran 36 acres of corn. Yield history is 181. Made 18. That's right 18.
Anonymous on 9/14/2012 1:52:00 PM
|
The USDA report doesn't help the RFS mandate argument any. Traders are giving end users a second chance at least at somewhat lower prices. I wonder how many are doing it? Crude is taking off due to the turmoil, corn is a little cheaper, dollar is cheaper due to political grand standing, mandate reduction or not ethanol will use big bushels and exports should rise. All the while USDA did not reduce harvested acres yet or reduce the yield to meet expectations and what we are actually seeing. Has corn made its high yet? I won't bet the farm on it. If futures don't do it basis will. Alot of endusers are going to be looking for the imaginary corn come May.
Anonymous on 9/14/2012 10:26:00 AM
|
The grain market is topsy-turvy,no one knows the price where supply and demand will meet.I think that chart readers,in these circumstances,are as useful as astrologists.I depend on several things when making decisions,experience is near the top of the list.But when I'm driving in treacherous conditions,I focus on the road ahead,the mirror gets used less.This is a seller's market.If you want to know what the end-user will pay,wait.Let the meat,ethanol and export people figure out what their buyers will pay.It takes time.
Anonymous on 9/14/2012 9:02:00 AM
|
USDA is trying their hardest to keep a lid on corn prices thus overall food prices till after the election. They are probably tried of everyone belly-aching about ethanol and removing the mandate. I have a hard time believing that if beans go to $20 plus that corn won't be at least $9. Let's not forget eveyone that's it's still fairly dry in the cornbelt and it is going to take alot of moisture to heal everything up.
Anonymous on 9/14/2012 12:32:00 AM
|
Fed delivers QE3. Stock market and gold rally. Corn trades on both sides of the unchanged mark and barely closes up for the day. What gives? Could it be the speculators are now liquidating their gains in order to move on to other investments. This is not a good signal for grains, at least short term. A major top was put in August. Not to mention longs will start getting nervous when the DEC12 contract approaches expiration.Corn will never see $9. Arlan, admit that a major top is probably in.Please.
Anonymous on 9/13/2012 4:14:00 PM
|
USDA can't predict the weather. Neither can media analysts. Normal rainfall in the month of July and we would be swimming in corn. The point was no one knows. That is why it is so ridiculous to take any of these predictions seriously, and rely on any one who claims to know what the future prices of the grain complex will be.
Anonymous on 9/13/2012 1:10:00 PM
|
If the USDA is the only source of info with any credibility i would have been broke years ago. How's that 166 bpa for corn working out? The USDA is about as predictable as the sun coming up every morning. You must be drinking more than kool-aid.
Anonymous on 9/13/2012 9:16:00 AM
|
Yup, yup yup, gee whis the usda has corn "O" plenty. Sell, sell, sell, you deficient minded traders. I will sell at $9.00 or maybe $10.00. I don't know tell me?
Anonymous on 9/12/2012 8:44:00 PM
|
So the USDA is right?I'd say they're predictable.If you believe'em,wait until next year to buy what you need.I'm a "glass half-full" kinda guy,soybean prices make DDG's more valuable.That'll keep the ethanol plants out of the red longer.There's lots of corn,government says so.Use it up.
Anonymous on 9/12/2012 7:56:00 PM
|
Read post dated 9/5/2012 AT 3:43::00 PM. Some one clearly signaled what USDA reported today. USDA is the only source of information with any relative credibility. Sometimes you have to admit when you are wrong.
Anonymous on 9/12/2012 4:01:00 PM
|
Asset managers are convinced that QE3 will be announced this week,so they're selling before others sell the "news".I thought that the whole point was to protect yourself from inflation by holding commodities,equities and property.What do I know?
Anonymous on 9/10/2012 3:08:00 PM
|
To add to my 11:50 comment, I said legitimate crash. I'm well aware of what can happen without merit. All the arguments I read for lower prices talk about a few million bushels lost in demand here and there. I have seen no evidence of the few billion with a B in demand we actually need to curb. If corn does have a crash with no merit I will wait it out. That said risk management does argue for some puts. I need to quit calling it risk management since a crash is fundamentally not warranted. It needs to be called big fund management.
Anonymous on 9/9/2012 9:13:00 PM
|
Saw a short news piece today on CNBC,chicken wings will increase in price,substantially,just in time for the football season.The producers who hedged their feed supplies will win on this one,they'll collect a "replacement-cost" premium on that cheap feed they bought in the spring.More importantly,it shows that the real end-user of grain is the consumer,not the feedlot.Watch for the Big Mac to become a big deal .Maybe steak will regain its former status.We'll see.
Anonymous on 9/7/2012 6:12:00 PM
|
Remember, substantially 70-75% end user and producers trade commitments were made long before the drought became a factor for the 2012-2013 marketing year. Everyone in business has to hedge in order to give the financial institutions who guarantee their debts some form of risk management along with crop insurance. The 25-30% left in the remaining margin of trade are primarily speculators. Profit is all they know about and their outlook can change much faster than we can anticipate. Arlan is right, at these lofty levels supply and demand fundamentals are meaningless to the speculators. When they decide it is time to take their huge profits to the bank the grain complex will collapse. They are in effect the only game in town still playing. Don't be fooled into believing it can't happen by the media analysts. None of them are ever right. They are guessing just like the rest of us "dumb farmers".
Anonymous on 9/7/2012 2:51:00 PM
|
Ran 41 acres of corn (Indiana). Planted April 5 in perfect conditions with the best Monsanto has to offer. 45 bu. dry yield. The yield history is 188 bu. $8 corn to high, yea right and anyone waiting for a ligitament crash better wake up.
Anonymous on 9/7/2012 11:50:00 AM
|
To the 8:39 comment, your exactly 100% correct. We take all the risk & then feel guilty because corn goes to $8 because of the drought? I wonder if the oil company's think it's terrible when gas prices go up because of a fire at a refinery or a hurricane heads for the gulf? Probably not. A lot of farmers think as long as i break even or make a little that's good enough. It's no wonder they call us the dumb farmer.
Anonymous on 9/6/2012 11:40:00 PM
|
I can't believe how many people think $8 corn is terrible. In my area our dryland yields are going to be about half of normal. The net dollars per acre are going to be the same as a good crop at $4 corn. Us grain farmers are the ones that take the risk and everyone acts like we should just give our product away. It all goes back to last June and if you took advantage of $5.50 Dec corn or not if you are an end-user. I'm sure they're are plenty of farmers that sold corn at this level wishing they could have a do over but nobody is going to come to their rescue.
Anonymous on 9/6/2012 8:39:00 AM
|
$7 corn is not great when multiplied by this year's yields.Drought story has gotten old,market moves are on light trading volumes.Farmers don't pay much attention to what the USDA prints because farmers are on the front line.Anyone who loses confidence in this market be taken advantage of.
Anonymous on 9/6/2012 7:57:00 AM
|
My guess on the September USDA report will be 2011-2012 carryout of 1.2 billion bushel of corn. Current estimate, little over 1 billion. Additional, 50 million from exports. Additional 50 million from ethanol. Additional 100 million from feed usage. Equal 1.2 billion. Those numbers have already been confirmed in the weekly reports. I expect total 2012-2013 production will remain unchanged until after harvest. USDA will not guess again. Too much riding on the outcome. If they do reduce production, expect an offsetting reduction in usage to balance. Next year exports forecast will be reduced another 300 million, if not more. Based on current rate of weekly inspections and sales, probably be even more. End result, they will surprise by increasing the 2012-2013 carry out by 100 million bushel to 750 million bushel. Charts also indicate that a correction from the $8 highs is likely. Even a moderately bullish USDA estimate could encounter profit taking by selling the news. A bearish report estimate for demand could result in a $1-$1.30 drop over the next 60 days. $7 corn is still a great price.
Anonymous on 9/5/2012 3:43:00 PM
|
I'm with 10:48. Lots of talk on pricing way out multiple years. Could be right or disasterous wrong. We have a lot more to work through before I can see jumping the gun. We still do not know 2012 production and all indications lead to smaller than what is priced in. The latest China news is they are going to grow their protein demand leaps more. If 17 dollar beans don't scare them then what will? Lots of talk about poor corn exports but if you were China would you buy with all the RFS mandate talk right now? If they do lower the mandate and traders foolishly lower the market you can bet China will be saying thank you I'll take a bunch of that you fools.
Anonymous on 9/5/2012 9:40:00 AM
|
Any guess on what surprises the USDA will have on Sept report? Think they have decided to be more realistic? Actually harvest will just be starting and that should be more realistic than any govt report. I believe we should look at the big picture and think longer term. Some of the same people who said this spring that we would have a record crop this year are now saying the high is in, record crop next year, price 2013+ crop, loss of demand, etc. I wouldn't count out a drought again next year or the following year as some predict. Let's at least wait until we see how bad (as opposed to good) this crop will be. I think we are all in agreement that price of corn won't be $5.00 this fall. I like the 11:08 comment on being responsible for his own actions. That is a major problem in our country today. Scott County Eastern Iowa
Anonymous on 9/4/2012 10:48:00 PM
|
I'm amused by those using exports to judge whether corn demand is being rationed. Exports make up 12% of total demand. You could totally shut off exports, which won't happen, and it still would not be enough rationing. That will have to come from ethanol and livestock production. In the end, it will likely be from a slow down in ethanol, which sends protein costs soaring, which results in herd liquidation. Not the route that we want, but what supply dictates.
Arlan on 9/4/2012 10:29:00 AM
|
Few years ago I had a truckload of beans left in storage,held out for $15 just so I could say I got fifteen bucks for beans.I ended up getting $11.I learned a lesson,something like 'a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush' but it didn't change my nature.I still swing for the fence if the pitch looks good.
Anonymous on 9/2/2012 10:23:00 AM
|
To the guy who thinks 8 dollar corn is absurd, sounds like you sold too much too early and now your mad at the market. All markets go up & down. However, the guy who sells near the top of the market will not be left in the dust. It sounds like your the one who's been left in the dust. 9 or 10 dollar corn is absurd but if it gets there i hope i have some left to sell. Hopefully it's not your neighbor that gets that absurd price or he/she might end up buying your farm.
Anonymous on 9/2/2012 12:22:00 AM
|
Yes absurd and even more absurd that there are those who think it should be 9 or 10 bucks. Paul Tudor Jones was a brilliant Chicken Little. Here's the deal. The news on corn is catastrophic and gets worse everyday, correct? Every single day is the worst day in 100 years. Am I correct so far? Yet the market won't go any higher. Arlan keeps predicting this pending blow off top, but it ain't happening. Broken record. More terrible news. More biblical disasters but the market won't respond by going higher. It is done! The market is all knowing. And it doesn't want to go any higher. It wants to go back down and when it does it will crash and leave u in the dust.
Anonymous on 9/1/2012 12:36:00 PM
|
I wonder if I waited to lock in my crop production cost intil the day I needed them if my Govenor would write a letter??? I lock in my land rents 8 months to 3 years in advance, lock in nitrogen 8-11 months in advance, lock in seed 8 months in advance, try to buy fuel when it is at yearly lows, buy machinery before yet another price increase, buy herbicides 8-12 months in advance. He!!, I even prepaid my second kids birth for a cash discount 18 years ago (yes, you can do that and it works). What have I been doing??? All this time my Govenor should have been writing a letter I guess??? Sure wish I knew the rules before now. I just thought I was being, I don't know, responsible for my actions maybe???
Anonymous on 9/1/2012 11:08:00 AM
|
So sorry, thanks 4:45 for the keen appreciation of adjective "absurd." Pretty funny...
Anonymous on 9/1/2012 12:54:00 AM
|
Missed the part where Chicken Little got rich going short
Anonymous on 8/31/2012 11:32:00 PM
|
If 8 dollar corn is absurd then don't sell any. I'll buy every bushel you have for 5 bucks since you think that's a fair price. Or if you haul it to the elevator just tell them the most you'll take is 5 bucks since 8 is absurd. If the market is all knowing then why is corn @ 8 bucks? Is it absurd that a new combine costs $350,000 or more excluding the heads? What about gas @ record highs? How about more than 4 dollar diesel @ the pump? How about all of the times when prices were below the cost of production & a lot of farmers went broke? What's absurd is the farmer who produces the most valuable thing in the world and does'nt get a fair price for it. I'm running my farm as a business and i'm sure as hell not selling my corn for 5 bucks when the market will give me 8 bucks. Anybody who would do that would be absurd.
Anonymous on 8/31/2012 4:45:00 PM
|
The Democrats realized that a carbon tax wouldn't get through Congress,so the EPA declared CO2 a 'dangerous pollutant' without a vote to support such a huge shift in policy.If relaxing the RFS is only a symbolic move,(market neutral) I expect that to happen:Dem's are big on symbolism and votes are precious.We'll know a lot more next year,won't we?And I'll bet next spring that the average backside at the mall won't be any narrower.You're right,the market is all knowing.Patience,people.
Anonymous on 8/31/2012 4:30:00 PM
|
If they sold for 6 bucks or less than that's the fair price..... Thanks for giving me all the info I need. This 8 buck corn is absurd. Get prepared for a major crash. The market is all knowing.
Anonymous on 8/31/2012 1:18:00 PM
|
Why would anyone think a major overhaul of the RFS is gonna make a difference? Have you noticed that the price of diesel fuel @ the pump is over $4 & gas is 3.75/gal? [ at least in my area] I have'nt heard any govenor say a word about that. Why not? Maybe they should all sign a petition & send it to the EPA telling them how these high prices @ the pump are hurting all americans. If it was'nt for ethanol how much more would gas be & how much less corn would have been planted? The livestock industry would be in even more world of hurt if it was'nt for the ddg's. The previous comment was correct in saying how much corn has actually been sold for around seven bucks or less. I know for a fact my neighbor sold a lot of corn for less than six bucks. I guess it's ok for crude oil, gas,machinery,seed fertilizer,ect to go up every year but if corn goes to eight dollars that's just terrible? Last time i checked the farmer has never caused the price of grain to go up or down. Farmers are the only one who don't have enough brains to get a fair price for producing the most valuable thing on this earth. To everyone who thinks we need the EPA to do something about the RFS, quit your constant whining, you sound like a bunch of crying babies.
Anonymous on 8/30/2012 9:37:00 PM
|
I prefer quinoa. Arlan, again thanks for the straight analysis. To the scoffer: What was the average price for old crop over last 12 months? Close to seven bucks, I think...so that's not going to ration three billion bushels. Not much downside I guess.
Anonymous on 8/30/2012 4:25:00 PM
|
Corn is the foundation of our food chain,at least here in North America.Tofu,anyone?Watercress?Didn't think so.The biggest risk is that retailers exploit the consumer.The truth is that resulting food inflation should be in the low single digits.We'll adjust to it.
Anonymous on 8/30/2012 12:08:00 PM
|
The only thing I see we are running out of is demand at $8 corn. USDA export sales today shows net cancellatiions of old crop for 33.7 thousand metric tons. Less than no sales. Even new crop sales were a horrible 6.63 million bushel.If that were to continue, you can add 1 billion bushel to the WASDE 2012-2013 carry out number.If exports trends are that bad, don't expect domestic usage to be any better. Eight state governors now want an ethanol RFS waiver. Expect a major overhaul of the RFS after the election. Excluding a major QE3 statement surprise tomorrow by the Fed, I don't see how corn can go much higher. The volume just isn't there.
Anonymous on 8/30/2012 10:43:00 AM
|
If you plan to buy corn on May 28 start saving for the down payment now.
Anonymous on 8/30/2012 2:34:00 AM
|
Look at the quote. It says, "failure to ration demand now, or even taking prices lower to allow for more demand, would likely result in effectively running out of corn by late spring or early summer, based on what we currently see as the size of the crop." The question posed was, what if we don't ration now, or take prices lower, when will we run out of corn. I stand by the statement, but I still expect the market to do the required rationing in the weeks/months ahead. It also states the assumption that our estimate of a 9.86 billion bushel crop or less is accurate.
Arlan on 8/29/2012 10:32:00 PM
|
August 28, 2012. I made a note on my calendar that Arlan says we will effectively run out of corn by late spring or summer 2013. I will get back to you on May 28th , 2013 to see how that worked out.
Anonymous on 8/29/2012 4:26:00 PM
|
Arlan, I appreciate your comment that risk management doesn't only apply to the producer. For years if the producer screws up he is an idiot. It definately is not easy when USDA farses things up and true fundamentals have not come into play for 3 years. I will say it wether it is popular or not. End users should have known better and that includes all of them. The USDA farse has played into their hand for so long they got confrontable that they could buy grain cheap all day long year after year. That's the truth and they need to quit whinning for the Govt. to step in and give them a re-due. Join my world end users and use risk management again. After all, it's economic class 101 in case you forgot it.
Anonymous on 8/28/2012 9:15:00 PM
|
Tonight,I got a phone call from a local chicken farmer wanting to buy my corn off the combine.First time that has happened to me.I'll wait and see,there'll be more of this soon.I expect local basis offers to improve.
Anonymous on 8/28/2012 9:04:00 PM
|
There really isn't any kind of good data to determine how much corn may have been sold early. That will certainly provide some help to end users, to whatever degree that it occurred. Risk management doesn't just apply to the producer; it also applies to the end user as well.
We are seeing some normal selling as harvest progresses. A number of end users are offering long-term deferred payment programs. Those allow the end user to get the grain without pushing the basis as much. They also leave the the seller at risk if the end user goes under, which is a legitimate risk this year.
Finally, failure to ration demand now, or even taking prices lower to allow for more demand, would likely result in effectively running out of corn by late spring or early summer, based on what we currently see as the size of the crop.
Arlan on 8/28/2012 8:32:00 PM
|
Do you expect a normal harvest market sell off with these high prices, or do you think farmers will bin the crop in hopes for higher prices? I know of many absente landlords that sell there shares right off the truck every year and $8 is hard to turn down.
Anonymous on 8/28/2012 11:45:00 AM
|
Hi Arlan. If the market refuses to curb demand of corn, and we continue to trade either side of $8.00, how long until we catually run out of corn? What if in their infinate wisdom traders actually let prices drop? How long will we have then? Another question, do we know how many bushels of new crop corn were sold this spring when prices were so low? Those bushels could end up being a real lifeline to endusers this winter.
Anonymous on 8/28/2012 9:37:00 AM
|
Arlan, After watching the crop tour guys talk it seems we are of course worse than previously thought by the market. They admitt kernel size will reduce the yield more than their already low projections. Doing the math, it could be as much as 25% lesser yield on corn. When do you think the market will fully grasp this or will they ever? Will it take USDA to do this and do you think USDA ever will? Will it be in the next 6 months if USDA does fess up? Thanks
Anonymous on 8/27/2012 11:57:00 AM
|
Arlan, anyone that follows you knows you are completly unbiased. You tell it like you see it and i for one thank you for that. Since january i have heard at least 8 times that the "highs are in" WELL BS. you are one of the 'FEW" objectve people i read, THANK YOU!!!! BTW, all you that sold your crops via advise from USDA or your broker, i do not feel one bit sorry for you, a week ago i made my first new crop corn sale at 7.59.
Anonymous on 8/24/2012 5:51:00 PM
|
First, I do not hold any positions in the market to maintain an "unbiased" position in my analysis. Second, I have examined dozens of harvest reports so far. The majority of them fell way below pre-harvest estimates after walking the fields. Finally, "the market has a job to do" continues to hold true because the math does not add up. It's too late for weather to do much to this year's job and after examining the studies, I do not believe that a waiver of the RFS will significantly impact demand. It would likely have a psychological impact, but price will have a greater impact than policy in balancing tight supplies against demand. I have nothing to gain financially from being right or wrong, other than the satisfaction of providing greater clarity to the farm sector, from which I come, but I appreciate the dialogue.
Arlan on 8/24/2012 7:36:00 AM
|
I understand why the crop tour uses the same methods every year,for consistency.But some flaws have been exposed this year and I hope they mention them with their report.Harvested acres and kernel size,for instance.One person on the tour boasted that his yield estimate coincided with the yield monitor of a combine in the same field.That's nice.I also know that when a storey has legs,the press will go looking for examples and point cameras at worst case examples.The stories I'll listen to will be from farmers who know their fields,what they expect from a field and what they got.
Anonymous on 8/23/2012 6:17:00 PM
|
Chiggers! It's the Feds.If you're right about a broken clock,the USDA seems immune to the rule.
Anonymous on 8/23/2012 4:52:00 PM
|
Arlan, your commentary is generally good information when you stick to the facts, but give the " market has work to do" speech a rest. You have made this a battle cry now since 2008. No one can predict the weather accurately. And no one knows what Obama plans are for the RFS ethanol mandate. These two factors will decide the fate of corn prices long term. Even a broken clock is right twice a day.
Anonymous on 8/23/2012 4:30:00 PM
|
For the sake of full and fair disclosure, Arlan, do you have a long position in corn?
Anonymous on 8/23/2012 3:48:00 PM
|
I still do not look for a waiver of RFS before the election unless it looks like there will be more votes won with that decision due to food inflation headlines than lost in the farm vote. So far, the expectation is that food inflation will be more of an issue in 2013. Regardless, I do not expect the waiver to have an impact on demand, but rather prices will likely need to do that job.
I also see good comments on South America. The expectation is that 50% of Brazil's soybeans will remain dry through at least much of November. The extent will depend on the strength of El Nino, as well as sea surface temperatures in the southern Atlantic. There have been conflicting reports of soybean seed shortages. There are also significant concerns about whether Brazil yet has the infrastructure and port capacity to meet global demand come spring. It just approved a big 5-year improvement program for its infrastructure, but that's going to take time.
Finally, new-crop soybean export sales for the year that begins Sept 1 already sits at 56% of USDA's target for the year as of August 16. The 10-year average for the 1st of September is 29%.
Arlan on 8/23/2012 11:09:00 AM
|
And I don't wear overalls dipshi!!. I call them bibs.
Anonymous on 8/21/2012 10:04:00 PM
|
Holly crap, Ok, I'll say it. 8-22 at 11:02 AM. It sounds like you need some special attention. I am a producer and will sacrafice my personal time just for your special needs. Let me know how to contact you on a personal level please.
Anonymous on 8/21/2012 10:01:00 PM
|
I'm not betting against a stout Brazilian soy harvest,but I'd like to see their planting intentions if corn keeps climbing.
Anonymous on 8/21/2012 2:44:00 PM
|
My Friends, I originally posted the "radical idea" post. I am a speculator on the long side of Meal (have been for quite a run). My wife and I have made our own "crop progress" report and believe it is worse than the market has factored in. We really appreciate the work done by the Farm Futures Team. I believe they are pretty much "spot on". I love working with Farmers, Analysts, Traders, Commercials, etc. I think we would get much further ahead if we really listened to one another and quit seeing the others as "enemies". What a system and country we live in. I already know some Farmers who are going to store some Beans as a result of this idea. I hope they also make a significant profit as well. Cheers
Anonymous on 8/21/2012 1:01:00 PM
|
To ANON at 11:02....should the farmer assume the bulk of the risk and only some of the reward?Farmers today are survivors,their population is a tiny fraction of our forefathers times.You obviously know nothing of the farm life; drought is only one of many torments we endure. Already the cool night temperatures remind me that it could freeze before crop maturity.Each farmer needs all the money he can reap from the markets in order to remain in business because his neighbours are also his competitors.This is the system we've lived with for centuries and it has served the market well.
Anonymous on 8/21/2012 12:07:00 PM
|
To anon at 8/20@7:07 pm........aye, there's the rub! Everyone likes to blame the traders...."just in it for the profit"...."the farmer is the true backbone of the country"..."good salt of the earth people"........"damn NYC hedge funds"......guess what......the farmer aint no saint.....he is the most corrupt of all! Store up food for the good people of America??!@....YEAH RIGHT!!......Sell Sell Sell....Sell and get as much $$$ as I can now!!.....screw the American people who actually need the food!!!....hahahahahah...the image of the good old honest workin American farmer is as much a farce as anything else in this countrt......famers are just mobsters/gangsters wearing overalls instead of pinstripe suits.
Anonymous on 8/21/2012 11:02:00 AM
|
Arlan, So the USDA opened up talks on the RFS mandate. It sounds like we could have a decision in as little as 30-40 days. I am counting on the October prices for crop insurance this year so I am nervous. Your take would be appreciated.
Anonymous on 8/21/2012 9:17:00 AM
|
Here's a better idea.Let the USA support the drought stricken farmers and buy every soybean there is and keep them here.After all,no one here has to hire a ship to deliver them,so they're a domestic bargain.
Anonymous on 8/20/2012 7:31:00 PM
|
Gentlemen, here's a radical idea. Be a true US Farm Patriot and store every Soybean you can. The USDA has made perfectly clear that we are short of Beans (and in Beans-we're the only store open). Our potential catasrophy for the US family is that US Farmers are planning on shipping (not storing) every soybean they can to a more than willing Chinese (and other Nation) consumer. What happens if the South American crop doesn't produce as expected? What happens if they suffer a similiar fate as we did and just don't have the Beans to ship to us after we run out (and we will with crush numbers the way they are and export sales already over fifty percent)? The US Farmer knows this to be true. The US Family needs the US Farmer to place them first. We're counting on you again.
Anonymous on 8/20/2012 7:07:00 PM
|
Arlan, have been reading many reports about spider mite damage on Beans. What's your take on potential yield loss?
Anonymous on 8/20/2012 6:55:00 PM
|
Arlan, some interesting points I would like you to comment on. Cattle on Feed 1 percent ABOVE last year (which was historic). Last weeks placements over 100K above last years same week (in other words still GROWING-not cutting back). Hog herd larger than last year (even though claims of culling are rolling in). With ethanol being curtailed DDG's are less and meal is needed more. We could be approaching 60 percent of our next years export sales projections acheived by the end of this month. Crush has been coming in stronger than projected. Bottom line...it's lookin like your $20 Beans just could happen. Good job.
Anonymous on 8/20/2012 4:02:00 PM
|
Arlan, a statistic from one of your commentaries earlier in the week really jumped out at me. More than 50% of USDA-projected exports of new crop soybeans have already been sold. I assume that % is higher than normal but I realized I would have no idea. We all know what happens when you assume! Can you find the data and report what is normal. (i.e. a 5 year avg of the % of subsequent year's exports that have been sold at this point)?
Anonymous on 8/17/2012 9:48:00 PM
|
In addition to bushels forward-sold,farmers will sell some more at harvest.Our buyers are familiar with our behaviour patterns.They can keep their average price lower by being patient.In the meantime,basis may improve at harvest because no one is going to fill any bins this year.
Anonymous on 8/17/2012 6:55:00 AM
|
We are giving our beans to China because USDA hoodwiinked the producers and traders into forecasting $4.00 corn and mammoth yields. Then Woohps - sorry when people had to sell at the artifical low that their reports created right up until the crops were burning in the fields. USDA should get it right or get out of manipulating our markets. They are the reason China got an early Christmas gift this year. Don't blame China when they accepted it - wouldn't you?
Anonymous on 8/16/2012 7:37:00 PM
|
How is it that China can have such an excellent grasp of the impending supply pitfall coming in soybeans over the next few months, and yet our traders here at home are completely clueless? We are GIVING our beans to them at this point. We STARTED OUT the year with projections essentially in the hole on soybean supplies. Without even considering a final tally on bushels, things have gone downhill considerably since pre-season projections and we are still moving beans at an alarming rate. Arlan, I am assuming new crop bushels purchased by other countries have to be made available to sellers through futures contracts with producers(or speculators I guess). If this is the case, do we know how many contracted bushels are available for sale? If not, how does this process work?
Anonymous on 8/16/2012 7:17:00 PM
|
If anyone is being cute, it's you, Shorty. Or should I call you Cutie.
longkansascitywheat.wordpress.com on 8/15/2012 7:41:00 PM
|
Just to add a little gas to the fire. Yields in the canola crop are disappointing at best to this point. Approximately 20 bushels per acre less than what had been hoped for. From what I have been told that the oil content is also 4% below normal , not good. To hot and dry for to long. Manitoba Canada
Anonymous on 8/15/2012 3:53:00 PM
|
Arlan, thanks again for your comments below on Beans. I have a word of advise for you, my Friend. After 34 years of trading don't get "too cute". In other words, you're in the credibility business. Your and Bryce's analysis IMO has been the best. We have set historic HIGHS in both Corn and Beans this year. YOU both called it right better than any other I've seen. BUT, we also have very unique and unusual global economic dynamics. I would just HATE for you to see yourself as a "failure" ten years from now if your "blow off top" expectation isn't fulfilled. Revel in the "macro-call" and not the potential "mini-tweeking" of this 2012 drought Bull move. Cheers
Anonymous on 8/15/2012 3:30:00 PM
|
Farmer in N. MO harvesting 34 bushel/acre corn with a test weight of 41 and can't find a buyer. Crop insurance agent told him to disk it under.
Anonymous on 8/15/2012 8:36:00 AM
|
You are correct on your China comment. In fact, China already tried that tactic (actually, they've tried it many times in the past) of cancelling purchases. However, their crush margins are positive and their need is great, so they quickly returned to buy the price break. China is the key, but so far the data would suggest that their need is great.
As for the reference to '88, let me say that the most popular thing to say in a bull market is, "the top is near, take cover." Nobody wants to be the bull left holding the grain and missing out on the selling opportunity. I certainly don't. However, I must be true to the data that I see. Demand cannot exceed supply. The data continues to tell me that supply is much smaller than demand to this point. If the futures market won't do the job, then the cash market will. I cannot tell you when. It may be next week, or it may be six months from now. One way or the other, demand must fall to match supply. World reserves of corn were huge when the '88 drought occurred. Domestic supplies were huge, with the farmer-owned reserve. Demand is much stronger this time around and we entered this drought with some of the tightest global stocks of the past 40 years as a percent of demand.
Arlan on 8/15/2012 8:00:00 AM
|
Arlan, it seems to me that the "wild card" in Beans lies with the Chinese. If they continue to buy/buy/buy and then actually take delivery we will run out. If on the other hand they back off on purchases, and then even cancel large new crop Beans we could see that "crush" the market.
Anonymous on 8/15/2012 2:31:00 AM
|
Arlan, we've had 17.50 plus on Beans and right at 8.50 on Corn. It seems the "low" end of Bryces numbers have been reached if the USDA numbers hold close to the Aug. report (not Farm Futures 10B on Corn). I "get" the Bears perspective that while we are looking at an '88 yield comparison, we might also be looking at an '08 global demand shut down in commodities overrall. In '88 I believe the blow off top was under $4 a bushel Corn. What say Ye??
Anonymous on 8/14/2012 4:06:00 PM
|
Should see increased harvest reports this week, with the industry tour next week. "Better" weather has had little impact on yields to this point, other than to slow crop deterioration. Do the math anyway you want to, but corn and soybean demand still exceed the available supply, even if you accept USDA's supply numbers. The piper will eventually have to be paid, whether it be now or down the road.
Arlan on 8/14/2012 2:59:00 PM
|
from what I see the beans are shutting down and additional rain will do very little. The yield has been set. Crop ratings at this point are starting to be irrelevant. The only data that will matter from here on will be the yield
Anonymous on 8/13/2012 7:02:00 PM
|
what do think about the lower ms river at historic lows. large % of grain has to pass through lower ms to get to export market. bunge can no longer load in mphs at their main terminal. they are trucking to another location to handle what they can. they just told me to make sure ur bins are ready
Anonymous on 8/13/2012 5:04:00 PM
|
With the action of the market I don't see what the problem with short supply is anyway. Looks like $7.00 corn again so what is the problem. If that happens and end users don't hedge it all I will be getting pretty tired of them expecting the Govt. to give them yet another redo. Sorry, someone had to finally say it.
Anonymous on 8/13/2012 3:32:00 PM
|
10 billion bushel of corn production or less? = 1) Temporary ethanol production slow down along with 25% reduction of the RFS mandate, 2) Temporary restriction on exports next spring, 3) Long term destruction of livestock production in the US. Pick your poison. Election year. Romney/Ryan pick number 1. Obama whatever loses the least votes. This administration does not have a clue what they will do. Markets do not like uncertainty.
Anonymous on 8/13/2012 11:11:00 AM
|
Gentlemen, we are all big boys who make our own decisions and benefit/suffer from the consequences.
Bryce and Arlan have been the most accurate Analysts I have tracked, but ultimately the profit/loss is mine to own. Cheers
Anonymous on 8/13/2012 11:01:00 AM
|
I agree with Mr dont trust the weather. with 4 to 7 in of rain falling across Central Mich late last week left many fields with standing water. after the worst drought in us history we maybe mudin out what little crop is out there,
Anonymous on 8/13/2012 9:24:00 AM
|
The RFS mandate doesn't really need to be looked at until we get a real blow off top. It appears computer traders are not going to let prices go any higher anyway. These prices aren't going to curb 4 billion buschels of demand and if they would mess with the mandate the computer traders will collapse prices. End result will be the corn gone even earlier. With or without the mandate, ethanol producers will produce and compete with cheaper corn prices. It may be a popular political spin but it will just make things worse. The last thing we can do now is have cheaper corn and encourage more demand.
Anonymous on 8/12/2012 10:10:00 PM
|
Someone just called Arlan a fool.It's hard to take this jaw-boning seriously,supply&demand matters.For most of the growing season all I've heard from corn buyers is sell now,sell now.I don't take advice from salesmen on commission.I don't have it all figured out,but I can smell a con-job a mile away.If I trust anything,it's don't trust the weather.
Anonymous on 8/12/2012 4:28:00 PM
|
Fundamentals in the futures markets impact the price only if they make news headlines. $8 dollar corn is caused by weather premiums generated from nonstop press coverage in July just as $5 corn was caused by the same press coverage and analyst opinions back in May that corn would go back to $4, even though cash prices were still at $6.50.So what is the next major headline? As of Saturday morning, Obama administration reviewing RFS ethanol waiver, with petitions signed by democratic state Governors, and 181 bipartisan members of Senate and Congress demanding it.When will we finally admit that no one can predict the next price of corn? In every major market of any kind, this type of volatility created by the likes of Goldman Sachs and computer generated trading programs based on headlines results in catastrophic crashes at some point. Any one telling you that they have this figured out is the worst kind of fool to take advice from.
Anonymous on 8/12/2012 11:19:00 AM
|
http://www.wrod-d.com/vb/t14634.html ??????
http://www.wrod-d.com/vb/t14639.html ???? ???? ????? ???? ????
http://www.wrod-d.com/vb/t14638.html ???? ??? ???? ???? ?????
http://www.wrod-d.com/vb/t14637.html ?? ????? ?????? ??????
http://www.wrod-d.com/vb/t14636.html ???? ?????????
Anonymous on 8/11/2012 1:47:00 PM
|
Ditto to the previous comment. Anybody that would sell 3 Years out must have rocks in their head. Have you not noticed the weather patterns lately? Are these the same advisors that said South America was going to produce a record bean crop last year? How did that end up? Then they said the US has never had back to back to back bad years so you better sell any rally. Only to have one of the worst droughts in history. Now their trying to tell us how big a crop South America COULD produce next year so you better sell. Don't forget how many acres will get planted in the US next year & all the grain we'll be swimming in. Gee where can i sign up to get some of this great advise?
Anonymous on 8/11/2012 1:41:00 PM
|
Wow! I better sell the farm before it's worthless too.What form of payment should I chose?Over-valued gold,freshly-printed greenbacks or Facebook shares?
Anonymous on 8/11/2012 7:18:00 AM
|
I have been reading from the other analyst and popular thought. Let's remind everybody the popular thought not to long ago was sell the crap out of $5 dollar corn. Mother Nature has made a huge ASS out of you. Instead of learning from your pompise mistakes you have doubled down. Unfortunately, you are in majority and have control but I personally will not listen. We have a 95% chance of poor production next year because of no subsoil moisture. It doesn't show up in the charts and USDA will not tell you about it. However, traders, go short and loose your Condo's and explain that to your wives.
Anonymous on 8/10/2012 10:44:00 PM
|
Many Farmers in NW Iowa had been advised to sell 3 yrs forward at these prices and I think many did so today. I know of a few that took the advise of their financial analyst by pulling the trigger today.
Anonymous on 8/10/2012 8:46:00 PM
|
I think we missed out on one of only a few chances left to take this market another leg higher today. Now all we have left is the possibilty of a shorter harvest than we are currently projecting. I think that chance is 50/50 at this point but who knows. A lot of that will depend on how well combine moniters are calibrated as you have said before Arlin. If you listen to the doom and gloom all over the news a shorter crop is almost certain, but neither FF nor USDA's projections are really showing a deep enough shortfall to really light a fire under the bulls again. Arlan, you said our corn crop was in line with what we saw in 1995. I realize that is getting to be a few years ago now, but that seems to be a far cry from the multi-generational epic crop failure that many have on their minds. I don't see this market falling apart though, as the previous poster does because I think end users are smart enough to buy any real breaks at this point. Any real drop in price I think would be dealt back in spades when the market realizes it let too much corn go too cheap if this market is allowed to fall apart. It's going to take a lot to get a fund manager's attention and prompt him to invest more money at these prices. I think the bull will be sound asleep until something big happens to wake him up. He's tired. He's had a busy strech here so a little nudge wont do. Aside from a shorter than expected crop, what do you think would wake up the bull and "blow the top" off of this market Arlan?
Anonymous on 8/10/2012 8:28:00 PM
|
As reading comments from what I assume are traders, I will leave this for thought. Thought only for the people that understand because I know traders are limited in that regard. USDA has plain lied for 3-4 years, surprise I know because who would have thought the current administration would lie to better themselves politically while burning all else??? Traders can look at whatever charts they want to from the last few years but they are a farse. Between USDA fuzzy math and traders not doing what they are suppose to everything forward of 2008 is tainted. If USDA would have been correct and traders do their job we would not be where we are now. Grains should have been much higher the last few years to truley reflect what is going on. If they would have, meats would be higher by now to reflect reality and cheap exports would have been rationed. The result would have been a better suited demand for a somewhat higher price in a disaster which we have now. Since the lying a!! USDA and mindless traders followed suit we are where we are now. Spin it how you will (and probably succeed short term) but the huge tit is in a ringer now. USDA has failed, traders have failed, own up and make it right before it gets even worse for the consumer and country. Even USDA is telling you that corn has to be plus $9 to correct this farse.
Anonymous on 8/10/2012 8:23:00 PM
|
Our area ethanol plant removes corn oil before ethanol grind, then has DDGs left over, similar to soymeal. So using 123.4 Bu. x 56=6910.4 lbs x 25% (oil + DDGs)=1727.6 Soybeans at 36.1 x 60=2166 lbs. About 438 lbs. per acre less food this year from corn/ acre than soybeans. Arlan I'm not sure what the average DDGs produced from a bushel of corn are, but maybe you can address the food for fuel issue better, including a more nomal crop like last year!
Anonymous on 8/10/2012 7:18:00 PM
|
Arlan, I find it fascinating that wheat futures ZW almost always rally a big 8-10 cents in the very last exact minute of trading regardless of trade direction. Same doesn't happen for ZC, ZM, ZS. Do you have any ideas why this happpens, given what you said about amateurs opening markets and pros closing them?
Anonymous on 8/10/2012 4:08:00 PM
|
Go back and look at the charts for nearby corn future contracts after 4/8/2011, 6/9/2011, 9/12/2011 when bullish USDA reports were issued. Each time you or some one else said " the market has not done its job yet" and each time prices retraced as much as $ 1.83 to $2.49 for a 23-31% correction from the tops. Each report USDA projected ending stocks were in the 675 million range. Demand was already rationing and the final carryover came in at around 1.1 billion bushel each year. It will happen again long before we ever see $9 corn. Does not help when every major news station is making this their main story of the day. Lots of politicians lining up to take on the problem of high corn prices.
Anonymous on 8/10/2012 3:41:00 PM
|
Obvious USDA will not allow ending corn stocks to fall below 5% of projected usage. Congress and the Senate are both pressuring Lisa Jackson, head of the EPA, in letters dated 8/1 and 8/7 to waive the RFS ethanol mandate ASAP. Obama won't because Iowa and Ohio are swing states in the election. Romney administration will make this repeal a priority right after Obamacare. 2012/2013 ending corn stocks could easily exceed 1.2 to 1.7 billion once this is all factored into the mix. I am selling as much as my equity allows now. No more waiting. BTW pretty significant reversal closing 40cents off the top today at the lows.
Anonymous on 8/10/2012 3:18:00 PM
|
To add to my last comment... USDA World Ending Stocks estimates compared to Farm Futures estimates. Thanks
Anonymous on 8/10/2012 9:32:00 AM
|
Arlan, Can you comment on the World Ending Stocks after today's report. I see USDA lowered corn a bunch but increased soybeans? What are they saying?
Anonymous on 8/10/2012 9:29:00 AM
|
This whole market is just a disaster waiting to happen. I have every intention of selling every bushel of corn off of the combine this year, but I hope the market can hold on that long. I can't sell too much too early because I just don't know where my crop is going to come in at, not to mention possible quality problems. I really can't even hardly remotely venture a guess on the bean yields at this point. I am not quite as worried about pricing them at this point though. I want them priced before anyone can start talking about a record crop in South America next winter though, or $20/bu whichever comes first. I wonder if Sam's Club has sleeping pills in bulk? That may be my only chance of sleep for the next few months.
Anonymous on 8/9/2012 7:44:00 PM
|
Arlan, if the USDA drops 1B bushels off ethanol Corn use does this translate into about another 300M bushel equivalent of Soymeal usage to replace the lost DDG's?
Anonymous on 8/9/2012 3:47:00 PM
|
What concerns me is the effect this all could have on next year input costs.
Anonymous on 8/9/2012 12:07:00 PM
|
Grain cooperatives, individual farmers ethanol plants and their banks are hedged on presold corn @ 6 month moving average of $ 6.01 for DEC 12 corn. By this time of year, most banks require the owner operator to be hedged 50%. CFTC commitment of traders report last week shows producers sold at record 673,577 contracts. Actual sold positions could be lower than $6. Federal and state bank examiners are watching the situation very closely. They will not allow the hedged position deficits to continue to grow without stop loss limits. At some point, probably during a blow off top the Banks could be required by regulators to liquidate the positions if and when limits are breached and it jeopardizes the safety and soundness of the financial institution. $8 corn is not good for anybody. After the blow-off top, you can expect a long term collapse in corn prices. Is this what you mean by the markets have a job to do?
Anonymous on 8/9/2012 11:57:00 AM
|
My input for "running out of days" in growing season. I am in lower NW Indiana and 75% of my corn has hit maturity or black layer as of 8-9-12 "WOW". I see no reason why I will not be harvesting under 20% corn in late August which is 40-60 days ahead of normal. I look for a 60-80 bu. average corn crop. Soybeans are and have been ahead of normal also. Podding started the last of June to the first of July which is un-heard of. Premature death due to drought and unrelentless spider mites (sprayed some twice) will allow them to be harvested 30 days early. This will be the first year I will have some zero yielding soybeans. Long term demand destruction? we better, because we will have a horrble production in 2013 also. We will be starting 2013 even dryer.
Anonymous on 8/9/2012 9:08:00 AM
|
CHU's or Growing Degree Day data are compromised by crops lapsing into drought-induced dormancy.
Anonymous on 8/8/2012 5:31:00 PM
|
Gentlemen, it seems to me we are "running out of days" in the 2012 growing season faster than normal. We planted earlier (ten to twenty days on average) and have had much hotter days/nights than normal. Is this an illusion or accurate?
Anonymous on 8/8/2012 11:27:00 AM
|
Arlen (or anyone else who knows the answer who can sve him the time), How do we stand in the 2012 growing season for Growing Degree Days vs the average????
Anonymous on 8/8/2012 11:24:00 AM
|
Historically, it does pay to hold soybeans following a short crop. Not so with corn though. As for the mixing of the crop years, recall that USDA boosted "residual" use of corn by 900 million bushels in May to compensate for the use of early-harvested corn. Wonder how that's going to work for them now.
As for the push for a waiver on the Renewable Fuels Standard, a waiver would simply remove the "requirement" that a fixed number of gallons be used, but it wouldn't prevent the use if economics dictated. I am in the camp that believes that such a decision would have a psychological impact on the market, but probably little real impact on demand under the current conditions. Ethanol use is now driven more by economics than it is by the RFS.
There was also a question about India, where the Monsoon has been a disappointment this year. Moisture has improved some, but I'm still not getting any real good data out of India about any hard production impacts yet at this point. However, there's no room for any losses this year.
Arlan on 8/7/2012 5:32:00 PM
|
How many bushles will the USDA take from this years "new crop "& add it to our "old crop" because of the early harvest? They say that they don't do it but everyone knows about the fuzzy math they can come up with. They have to make the balance sheets look somewhat respectible don't they?
Anonymous on 8/7/2012 9:24:00 AM
|
Does it really matter how much improvement we see on the bean crop at this point? We needed a big crop to stay afloat this year. That won't happen. We have been selling beans that we don't have at a record pace. I think I'll hold onto mine for a while.
Anonymous on 8/7/2012 7:57:00 AM
|
10 billion bushels. Given the magnitude of the situation, across the country, it seems that cutting roughly a mere third off of the overall crop seems a little light. That seems to be more of an elevated inconvenience than the somewhat "epidemic" situation mose feel we are in. What do you think Arlan? Whatever the number is, the worldwide corn supply is essentially in the red. Beans were really in the red before we even started. Wheat is somewhat OK for now but I think we could chew through that supply in a heck of a hurry, and how much of our current world supply is going to be made available in the next year or so if some countries decide to hold on to what they have. My point is that in terms of trying to begin to rebuild supplies next year, we really can't rob from Peter to pay Paul at this point because Peter is broke too. What sort of time frame could we be looking at to get supplies back to acceptable levels, considering we will probably see at least some, if not a fair amount of demand deterioration, given we have reasonable growing conditions worldwide? Does it really matter how long it takes to rebuild? Is this market going to be an all-out bloodbath for the next few months and once they feel supply and demand is properly balanced for this year's crop, come New Year's the markets will just tank and focus on next year like this year never happaned, making the assumption the problem has been fixed?
Anonymous on 8/6/2012 7:44:00 PM
|
Arlan, as former president Reagan said to Jimmy Carter in the '80 Presidential debate, "Here we go again". As I'm sure you've already calculated, the crop "progress" report numbers on both Corn and Beans have yet once again confirmed that it should more accurately be referred to as the "crop digression report" (how many months in a row???). Corn numbers went BELOW the 50% overrall rating mark at 241 out of a 500 potential total score (last week was 256 and the week before that was 263-all below the same '88 numbers). Beans were 278 vs. over 300 for '88 (the drop is actually bigger than the comparable Corn digression). Wow, what a difference some "good rains" make. Arlan, I believe that there is a "rural myth" out there that crops have "stabalized". In my "book" their not "stabalized" till they quit digressing. Am I missing something?
Anonymous on 8/6/2012 3:50:00 PM
|
Arlen, again THANKS for addressing all the many questions I've asked. You're a great teacher. I will have yet more after the "Crop Digression Report" comes out again in a few minutes. First, if Congress moves on the Ethanol mandate does that mean that the plants have to cutail/shotdown or just that they don't have to PRODUCE at the mandated amount (because if they are profitable at $9 a bushelCorn -who cares)??? Second, would you comment on the Soybean/SoyMeal implications of the below average rainfall in India? Finally, I have heard that the temperature "burn" level for soybeans in pollination is lower than Corn. Is this accurate, and if so what are the temps???
Anonymous on 8/6/2012 2:36:00 PM
|
!0 Billion is a big number. That is why it is ridiculous for any one to try and estimate production this early. Let's be honest nobody knows. Everyone was certain in 2009 too, and they got a big surprise. The only thing certain is that we will likely get another surprise..
Anonymous on 8/6/2012 1:38:00 PM
|
I neglected to respond to the 200+ bushel yield in the Delta comment. Yes, yields are good in portions of the Delta and they will be quite good in portions of the northwestern belt. A roughly 10 billion bushel crop is going to require that some areas have some very good yields to make up for all the areas that have little to nothing. 10 billion bushels is a lot of corn! It's just several billion below what is needed to meet demand.
Arlan on 8/6/2012 9:03:00 AM
|
Breaking down percentages of rationing across the various demand sectors is a complicated process. Human food will see the smallest percentage. I am in the camp that believes that a waiver of the RFS would have more of a psychological impact on the market than a real impact on demand. Ethanol demand rationing has occurred already, but I agree that the market indicators suggest that we need something north of $9 before we'd get the rationing that we truly need if the crop is as small as we believe that it is. As such, feed and exports will likely carry the brunt of the rationing. That means that we have to find alternative feed sources, which won't be easy, and it means that herd size will likely need to be further reduced as well. That's why the livestock sector will likely see record prices in 2013 and beyond.
As for the weekend rains, coverage was about as expected, although some areas received heavier amounts than expected. That will combine with the cooler temperatures to help stabilize crops. Remember that temperatures are still a big part of the equation here. Corn in the northwestern Midwest will benefit the most, but that benefit will also be limited. Soybeans will have the opportunity to see new growth and new pod setting activity where the rains did fall, but this weekend's event by no means "saved" the crop. It's merely part of the ups and downs of a weather market. However, traders in Chicago received more showers and it was cooler on the way to La Salle Street this morning. That does have a psychological impact on the market. We could see our yield models pop higher for soybeans, but I still contend that it will leave supply far tighter than demand dictates, with little actual rationing haven taken place to this point.
Arlan on 8/6/2012 9:01:00 AM
|
Arlan have you mentioned 200+ bushel yields being reported in the Delta region? Could have a big impact on USDA 2011-2012 carry out.
Anonymous on 8/6/2012 8:53:00 AM
|
Got down to 45 degrees last night. Better not be a sign of things to come.
Anonymous on 8/5/2012 9:50:00 PM
|
Arlen, thanks for addressing the earlier questions. So, of course I have more. With usage broken into the "four F's" (Food-human/Feed/Fuel/Foreign-exports) where do you see the percentage of rationing taking place to get supply/demand in balance over the coming months? Second, it appears north of $9 a bushel Corn is needed in current P/E for the ethanol Boys to start scaling back in a significant way in the "Fuel" demand equation. Does this seem close to you? And finally, it appears most of the growing area received less than an inch of rain over the weekend. What yield impact do you think it's had in both Corn and Beans?
Anonymous on 8/5/2012 8:51:00 PM
|
First, let me address the question on futures and options curriculum. Texas A&M has a great library at http://agecoext.tamu.edu/resources/library/risk-management-curriculum-guide.html. Scroll down for the curriculum.
Second, unfortunately, I think we will see basis all over the place in the months ahead, because I believe that the futures market will be quite vulnerable. But overall, we should see basis strengthen as futures come off their highs and end users search for quality corn.
As for aflatoxin, I'm hearing a lot of positive tests to this point, but the reports are still too sporadic to draw many conclusions, other than the table is set for a possible problem year.
Finally, I still believe that the best approach when looking at crop ratings is to look at all categories, including Excellent, Good, Fair, Poor and Very Poor. I do that with my condition index score. I think it gives the most accurate look at the crop. The corn index is slightly below the '88 crop at this point and soybeans are well below the '88 crop. However, each crop responds to a drought differently, because all droughts are different. The '88 scores/yield simply provide a benchmark, but not an indicator of where things will be when harvested.
Arlan on 8/5/2012 7:53:00 PM
|
http://vb.5rbz.com/f5 ??????? ???????
http://vb.5rbz.com/f51 ?????? ????????? 1433 ??
http://vb.5rbz.com/f6 ?????? ??????? ? ??? ? ?????
http://vb.5rbz.com/f7 ?????? ? ?????? ???????
http://vb.5rbz.com/f8 ???? ? ???? ? ????? ? ????? ? ???? ?????
http://vb.5rbz.com/f1 ??????? ???????
http://vb.5rbz.com/f2 ??????? ???????? ?????
http://vb.5rbz.com/f4 ??? ??????? ? ??????? ??? ???????
http://vb.5rbz.com/f49 ??????? ???????
http://vb.5rbz.com/f9 ??????? ????????
http://vb.5rbz.com/f10 ?????? ????
http://vb.5rbz.com/f11 ???? ? ????
http://vb.5rbz.com/f12 ????? ????
http://vb.5rbz.com/f50 ????? 2012 , ????? 1433 , ????? ????? , job , jobs
http://vb.5rbz.com/f18 ??????? ??????
http://vb.5rbz.com/f19 ???? ????? ? ????? ? ??????? ???? ? ????? ??????
http://vb.5rbz.com/f20 ????? ? ?????? ? ???? ? ?????????
http://vb.5rbz.com/f30 ??????? ? ????? ??? ? ????
http://vb.5rbz.com/f22 ??? ?? ? ????? ? ??????
http://vb.5rbz.com/f23 ???? ???? ? ????? ? ?????? ? ??????
http://vb.5rbz.com/f24 ????? ? ???? ? ??? ??? ? ????? ? ??????
http://vb.5rbz.com/f25 ??????? ??????
http://vb.5rbz.com/f26 ???? ????? ? ????? ? ???? ? ??????
http://vb.5rbz.com/f27 ????? ? ??????? ? ???????
http://vb.5rbz.com/f28 ??? ? ?? ???? ? ????? ? ????? ? ?????
http://vb.5rbz.com/f29 ????? ????? ? ????? ???????? ? ????? ??????
http://vb.5rbz.com/f31 ??????? ??????
http://vb.5rbz.com/f32 ????? iPhone ? ????? iPod ? ?? ??? iPad
http://vb.5rbz.com/f47 ????? ™Android
http://vb.5rbz.com/f48 ????? ?????? ???? Blackberry
http://vb.5rbz.com/f33 ???????? ? ????? ???? ? ?????
http://vb.5rbz.com/f42 ??????? ???????
http://vb.5rbz.com/f43 ??? ?????? ? ??? ?????
http://vb.5rbz.com/f45 ??? ???? ? ????? ???? ? ???? ??????
http://vb.5rbz.com/f46 ????? ??????? ? ???????
http://vb.5rbz.com/f34 ??????? ????????? ?????????
http://vb.5rbz.com/f35 ?????? ????? ?????? ???????
http://vb.5rbz.com/f36 ???? ????? ?????????
http://vb.5rbz.com/f37 ?????? ? ??????? ? ??????
http://vb.5rbz.com/f13 ??????? ?????
http://vb.5rbz.com/f14 ?????? ?????? ??? ??????
http://vb.5rbz.com/f15 ??? ? ????? ? ????? ? ??? ???????
http://vb.5rbz.com/f16 ????? ? ??? ? ??? ??????
http://vb.5rbz.com/f17 ???????? ??????
http://9or.5rbz.com/ ???
http://9or.5rbz.com/c1-1.html ??? ?????
http://9or.5rbz.com/c4-1.html ??? ?????
http://9or.5rbz.com/c3-1.html ??? ??????
http://9or.5rbz.com/c5-1.html ??? ??????
http://9or.5rbz.com/c6-1.html ??? ?????
http://9or.5rbz.com/c8-1.html ??? ?????
http://9or.5rbz.com/c2-1.html ??? ????
Anonymous on 8/4/2012 6:59:00 PM
|
To the traders who "HAVE to trade USDA numbers," why? It doesn't sound like you have much respect for the government, are you trading with government money? Is that how the bond market works, taking government reports as gospel?
longkansascitywheat.wordpress.com on 8/4/2012 12:08:00 PM
|
Hey Arlan. Question #1: A few months ago I made the decision not to make any sales for this season until after I could assess pollination. It looks like we came through pretty well. As I sit here now I see some pretty good prices on the futures, but basis is nothing to brag about. My gut tells me to sell the futures and hold on with the basis and see what happens. I think once harvest starts people are going to be scrambling to get their hands on whatever they can find. Do you see much change coming to basis? Question #2 Puts and Calls. I really don't know much about them, but we have tried them in the past and have found that to buy something meaningful is pretty expensive up front and then you have to share in the revenue if they pay. They seemed like kind of a joke. Does FF have a bit of a crash course on their website to explain these tools a little better, or do you know of someone who does?
Anonymous on 8/4/2012 10:43:00 AM
|
Arlen, as I've extrapolated the numbering system you provided below for both Corn and Beans compared to their same ratings in '88 the Beans came out far worse. Also, the poor/verypoor ratings (which I focus on) on Beans in the coming weeks (if the 14 day weather predictions hold) would seem to degenerate Beans at this critical stage more than Corn. What is your thinking on this?
Anonymous on 8/4/2012 5:41:00 AM
|
Good morning, Gentlemen. Back in '78 I made my first trade as a legitimate "hedger" in Lumber. Even though I "lost" just over 100K on the hedge, I ended up making over 100K overrall because I was able to get the contract because of the confidence I had in locking in my risk. Not a bad deal. It was probably a speculator who gave me that reality. Yes, I will be a seller when the grains turn around which will give grain end-users a chance to lock in some suvivability on their end. Right now if Arlen is right (and I believe he is) Farmers have an unprecedented opportunity to lock in historic pricing if they "scale in". If you do, let me know and I'll send you my address so you can send me a Christmas card from your family in December. Cheers
Anonymous on 8/4/2012 5:27:00 AM
|
Went on my own personal crop tour again tonight. Five fields within an hour drive. Corn is shot. Yield? Who knows~ nobody. No rain will help those fields. Lots of wind damage, fired and rolled plants, etc. Bugs everywhere! Big cracks in the ground and much worse downed and droughted corn a few rows in. All corn is either immature, crazy kernel pollinated, or tipped back or all three. Many ears seem to have begun denting even though they are still in milk stage. So dry the dent happens anyway. In some fields 9 our of 10 stalks didn't have any ears, and yet the 10th one had a fairly good one. As for the beans - one field is so dry, I don't think the pods will fill. The other is hanging by a thread - timely rain (which we never seem to get) could help that one. Sorry I forward sold 60% of normal production because now I will have to buy out the contracts and $16.50 - $12.50 means $4.00 out of my pocket plus penalties because the crops are so short I can't even make those. So, bring on the insurance payments - still waiting to see how the Powers that Be manage to stick it to the farmers that paid the premiums. One way is the vast amount of paperwork that is suddenly required for 09, 10, 11, and 12 APH yields. No longer certification, all the scale tix, settlement sheets, etc. Just another way to delay the flow of insurance payouts. Oh, and by the way, do I feel sorry for the farmers that didn't pay the premiums this year? No way. If I can pay, they can pay. So, I believe disaster relief should be limited to those that chose insurance and the livestock trade that has no coverage to buy. I also think crop insurance should be available to every farmer that wants it on the same terms and conditions. There is no "1%" when it comes to natural disasters such as drought, flood, etc. It is not right to allow some farmers to pay less for the same coverage that others are overcharged for - so the Farm Bill from the Senate deserved to die a quick and merciful death. Enough for now - glad I have insurance this year and hope the companies don't try to avoid paying these massive claims.
Anonymous on 8/3/2012 9:40:00 PM
|
Settle down boys...These are free markets, the traders do their best with the information they have to determine prices based on current supply and demand. Turn your anger on the USDA. For the last 3 years the USDA has been playing with the numbers;( planted acers, national average yield, ect) to support thier cheep food policy in this country. Lets be honest, as producers the last few years, we have known the USDA numbers have been BS! What you have to remember is that the traders HAVE to trade the numbers they are given, reguardless if they are accurate, the world trades the USDA numbers. Volitility is good for producers if you play it smart, 20 years ago you couldn't get the corn market to move .30 cents all year, now we see it in a day! Focus your anger where it belongs, on a bloated, political government agency, the USDA!
Anonymous on 8/3/2012 9:38:00 PM
|
Well "Mr. Bull", to keep it short and sweet, yes. I do get somewhat upset about your involvement in the commodity markets. You help support grain prices when they really don't need your help, except in this case to push prices high enough to curb demand, but eventually it would do it on it's own. When grain prices could really use your support you are nowhere to be found. You come out here, you light your fireworks, skyrocket my inputs, and leave me to clean up your mess as you move onto another market. You hurt the bottom line of the ethanol and livestock industry, whom I actually do look to to support grain prices. All from the comfort of your computer desk. This will be my last post on this subject as I don't feel the need to further hijack this otherwise very constructive forum. Carry on.
Anonymous on 8/3/2012 5:43:00 PM
|
Arlen, thanks for your response. Could you address the Aflatoxin issue as to reports on it's presence to this date?
Anonymous on 8/3/2012 4:38:00 PM
|
The popular thing to do when prices get to these levels is to be the first to predict that the high is in the market. That's possible, but not likely. Demand has not yet been slowed sufficiently to account for the lost bushels. Demand rationing can be accomplished by sustaining prices at this level for a sustained period of time, but the current make up of the market would suggest that it will likely try to spike prices higher to ration demand so that money managers can then take their profits and their investment and move it to the next opportune market.
Arlan on 8/3/2012 3:22:00 PM
|
To my Friend who seems to dislike "Speculators" in the Grain markets. I am a "Bull" and have put my hard earned money to help support grain prices. Are you upset I am involved???
Anonymous on 8/3/2012 1:25:00 PM
|
Arlen, a couple questions. First, I am hearing a growing number of "Bears" who are attempting to discount "the weather factor". This is hard for me to believe as a "Bull" in the grain market as there still seems to be significant (more in Beans than Corn at this date) yield loss/gain on a weekly basis. Descriptions such as "stale"/"fatigue"/"old news/ etc. are being used to attempt (in my view) to DISCOUNT the very REAL reality that we are continuing to witness weekly/daily SIGNIFICANT yield DESTRUCTION (that continue to manifest themselves in Bryces weekly Tuesday morning yield adjustments). Second, have you seen ANY (and if so, how much?) report of Aflatoxin so far in field Corn? Third, I have read that Corn above $9 a bushel seems to be the "price of demarcation" for Ethenal plants P/E. Does this seem to be a realisic number to you?
Anonymous on 8/3/2012 1:21:00 PM
|
Second here with the podcast mention of the Mexican purchase...Why is that not bigger news? Is the market headed back into ignore-reality mode?
longkansascitywheat.wordpress.com on 8/2/2012 9:31:00 PM
|
Arlan, good job on bringing up the potential alfatoxin issue. You were the first I read that had brought up the issue. Since then everyone has jumped on board including my local ethanol processor. Once again, you are ahead of the market thoughts by a week or two. Well done Sir and keep up the good work as I am listening closely.
Anonymous on 8/2/2012 7:11:00 PM
|
First of all I relly feel stupid for forgetting to fix errors my post before adding it. I pressed "add comment" and immediately said "awww crap".
OK fine leave the system alone. Ultimately it does it's job, and yes at times I am also able to enjoy in the good fortune they give me.......At least make a small attempt to give credit where credit is due though. Ethanol doesn't need another black eye, especially when these hacks can hide behind the GOP and say "It's all them, they're the problem, if it wasn't for them corn would be dirt cheap" then run back to their computers and jump it another buck. It's aggrivating.
Anonymous on 8/2/2012 5:03:00 PM
|
I am for free market and all in the way watch out. After all, didn't many fight and die for our markets and way of doing things. Problems yes, perfect NO!!, but it is our way and lets respect at all times who gave this to us. I am disgusted that with this in mind end of month squirrels can monipulate our markets. However, please let us non-squirrels focus on true fundamentals and what our predicessors had in mind when they were doing what we are not.
Anonymous on 8/2/2012 3:44:00 PM
|
My main point in reference to the below comment is that we can spend so much time obsessed with the problems in the market place that we don't make good decisions in the farm business. We live in a global economy with markets influenced by factors unrelated to agriculture on a daily basis. Working to change the system is fine, but we need to not become so obsessed with that battle that we miss opportunities to make the current system work for us in the mean time.
Another writer asked below about the crop ratings. They are filled out by primarily Extension and other government employees on a weekly basis. I filled them out back in my Extension days. The bulk of the weekly reports likely reflect Friday conditions, with the reports compiled on Monday. Our condition index score isn't unique to us. Others follow the same formula and call it their own, but the formula is commonly used. It's calculated by multiplying portion in Excellent category by 5, Good by 4, Fair by 3, Poor by 2, Very Poor by 1. Then add those five numbers together to get an index. A 500 index would be a perfect crop, while a 100 index would be a total crop failure. It probably works best in good crop years, but history still shows that it's a better indicator than just looking at the portion of the crop rated Good to Excellent.
Arlan on 8/2/2012 1:55:00 PM
|
Why is it that every time commodity prices get to un-affordable levels the country calls out producers and ethanol as the main culprits, but fund managers and speculators are never brought to task? Speculators do far more damage in terms of high prices than ethanol could ever do. Why is that never brought to light? I shouldn't bite the havd that feeds me, considering the premium I get at times but I have also lost money to them because they can "stay irrational longer than I can stay liquid". It would take a couple years but Ithink without them this whole industry coud be brought down a few notches, remain profitablem and be put on more solid footing. I could also sleep better at night. I am sure a large part of the problem is along the lines of what Mr. Sigdestad is elluding to. I think there is a lot of politics involved and not on the side of Obama. Arlan, at one time you talked about the fact that this type of speculation really makes the futures a less effective tool to hedge risk because at times there is no rhyme nor reason to the market. You then went on to say that It is just something we have to live with because there is nothing we can do about it. Why is that?
Anonymous on 8/1/2012 11:25:00 AM
|
I'd like to be a fly-on-the-wall at the EPA right now.GMO crops,factory farms,CO2,methane,global warming,drought,fall election.Can the Prius-driving tree-hugging vegans bowl a strike?
Anonymous on 7/31/2012 8:27:00 PM
|
Live on the northern edge of the lower third of Michigan, we have had 7 rain events for a total of 2.6 in of rain for the month of July and the crops still look like crap. beans are a foot shorter then they should be for this time of yr and corn ears are very small. sub soil moisture is gone and these rains are doing nothing but keeping the plants alive. my sympathy for all in the mid west with no rain at all.
Anonymous on 7/31/2012 3:01:00 PM
|
No, Dave, the drought is Pres. Carter's fault, duh!
longkansascitywheat.wordpress.com on 7/30/2012 10:51:00 PM
|
Since everything else is blamed on Obama, can't we blame this dry weather on him also. Just what
Romney fans think!!!!!! Proud to sign my name-Dave Sigdestad, South Dakota.
Anonymous on 7/30/2012 7:31:00 PM
|
How is "condition index score" calcualted?
Anonymous on 7/30/2012 7:12:00 PM
|
Arlen, if the current 14 day weather forecast proves out, where would you expect crop progress ratings for both Corn and Beans to be two weeks from today in the poor/very/poor and G/E categories)? Also, since even Beans will pretty much have gone through the critical pollination phase by then what level of "irrevocable" yield(assuming everything else from that date was growing conditions perfect) would you conservatively project for both Corn and Beans?
Anonymous on 7/30/2012 7:10:00 PM
|
Can you answer how the USDA assembles the crop condition report (where do they get the data I mean)? Thanks
Anonymous on 7/30/2012 2:23:00 PM
|
The reason that I use a condition index score is because it takes into account all categories of crop ratings. I believe that makes it more accurate. And yes, that puts the corn index 1 point below the '88 index during the same week, based on July 22 data. The soybean index is well below '88 levels. I too believe that the Poor to Very Poor ratings mean more at this point than the Good to Excellent; not only for getting a handle on the crop, but also abandonment.
Arlan on 7/30/2012 12:54:00 PM
|
We will do what big money wants and they want an embargo.
Anonymous on 7/30/2012 7:55:00 AM
|
Much good stuff here...No distraction intended...But, that MGEX NCI...I peck around at random and can barely any find summer delivery bids at that price, most a quarter or so higher...Is that a good number?
longkansascitywheat.wordpress.com on 7/29/2012 11:50:00 PM
|
The embargo will fix everything just like last time go Carter I mean that other guy O something!!!
Anonymous on 7/29/2012 8:31:00 PM
|
I've heard that the reason "bad informa" or "miss informa" are never to far off from the USDA is because most of the people that work there are former USDA employees. If you think about it, when is the last time Informa came out with a report that was bullish? Yet everyone in the trade waits to see what informa has to say whenever there's a report. 99.9% of the time it's bearish. What credibility does informa really have? Not much.
Anonymous on 7/28/2012 10:38:00 PM
|
Arlen and Bryce, it may prove that even YOUR projections might be too "conservative". Scary thought indeed. Don't back down, I think you are on the right track.
My research indicates the WORST reporting week in the '88 crop progress report was actually 7-8-88 at around 14% good/excellent. From there it actually improves to around 18% good/excellent by the last recorded report on 9-9-88. So, here's why I think you may even be UNDERRATING this years yield loss since we are still in a "crop digress free fall" week after week: 1. 2012 poor/very poor is weighted much more severe than the same time frame of '88. I believe we are obsessed with the WRONG end of the excellent/very poor conditions spectrum. 2. It appears that in '88 (assuming it was a more "normal" planting cycle than '12) they had started getting rains so the crops benefited from them before/during the critical pollination period (for both Corn and Beans). 3. In '88 eighty-six percent of acres were harvested in Corn (not sure about Beans yet). If that same ratio carries into '2012 we would see just shy of 84M Corn acres harvested. I believe that after abondanment and aflatoxin we might see under 80M this year. 4. If the numbers for Iowa you reported at 117BPA the other day from the crop tour prove out....well..it will be a disaster with Indiana/Missouri/Illinois/Kentucky etc. at significantly higher poor/very poor ratings (my focus since I believe this gives us a much better sense of "irrevocable" yield). Your thoughts please.
Anonymous on 7/28/2012 11:37:00 AM
|
Same concerns with me. If the forcast to remain dry through fall are correct we will have reduced production in 2013 also.
Anonymous on 7/28/2012 8:10:00 AM
|
Ditto previous posts on your comments Arlan. It gave me the conviction to stick to my ideas that higher prices were ahead this spring in the face of continuing false USDA data. No matter what our yields are, I think what we need to keep in the back of our minds as we go through fall, winter, and spring is the amount of precip and how widespread it is. NOAA as well as others are forecasting a warmer and dryer fall. The 34, 54, and 88 severe droughts usually had the next or following year also very dry. There already is talk from analysts that next year will be record acres, yields and low prices. Don't believe it for a minute. We may have a 2-3 year drought cycle on our hands.
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2012/07/20/us/drought-footprint.html?ref=earth, shows a US map of dry areas for the last 100 years. Scott County Eastern Iowa
Anonymous on 7/27/2012 10:11:00 PM
|
I think almost all here on this post know and fear how bad this corn production is probably going to be when the smoke clears. I read several sources and of course they are all focused on the Informa numbers (should be called bad Informa). One thing about "bad Informa" is they are usually close to what USDA comes out with because they use some of the same funky reasoning. I have a bad gut feeling USDA is going to post a 135 bu. plus Nat. Ave. in August.
Anonymous on 7/27/2012 8:32:00 PM
|
The Australian wheat crop is stressed, it might be cold, but no subsoil moisture and minimal rain forecast at this stage to bring it home - nervous times at the moment. NoTillBill
Anonymous on 7/27/2012 7:59:00 PM
|
Arlen, I have followed precipitaion levels in thirty cities in the 18 key growing States and I believe people would be shocked to find out how little rain has actually fallen in the past two months. A few examples (first number is current July rainfall-second number is average July rainfall). This comes from the weather.com weiiste and everyone can access it at any time by keying in the city you want; then going to "monthly" forecast; then scrolling down to the bottom of the page and seeing "how full/empty" the glass is. Des Moines .63/(I've decided NOT to put in this number since they all average around 4 inches for the month); Rockford, Il 1.99; Davenport, Il. .94: Pierre, SD .38; Indianapolis .68; St. louis .65; Columbus 1.62; Kansas City .60; Little Rock 1.41. If "rain makes grain", then lack of grain must make ...pain.
Anonymous on 7/27/2012 5:51:00 PM
|
Folks, I just got off the website that provides the data for the weekly crop progress report. It seems to only go back to 1995. Where does one find the 1988 weekly numbers???
Also, I believe that the market is focused on the wrong end of the spectrum now (especially with Corn). The most critical weekly numbers IMO are no longer the excellent/good downgrades, but what's deteriorating into the poor/very poor categories (esp. after the critical pollination period). If it "don't pollinate" it don't matter how much cool weather and rain it gets thereafter. It won't surprise me if we end up with less than 84M harvested Corn acres. I believe with over 90 percent of Corn acreage pollinated, that number has been pretty much "Baked In". I hope I'm wrong.
Anonymous on 7/27/2012 5:33:00 PM
|
Arlen, thanks for addressing my two questions on my earlier post. I will find the worst crop rating week for 1988 hopefully this weekend and let everyone know the results. Also, it will be interesting to see the ratings beginning in August of '88 and compare them to our '12 numbers (especially since our critical pollination probably occured a couple weeks ahead of the '88 crop year). What I am really attempting to assess is the "irrevocable" yield (if EVERYTHING was perfect growing conditions from now till harvest). My sense is that the irrevocable numbers are higher than the market has factored in. If that is correct, this is going to hit a large number of folks like a freight train.
Anonymous on 7/27/2012 4:58:00 PM
|
Crop rating comparisons with 1988 were for the same week of the growing season. Unfortunately, I don't have the historical data to correlate abandonment with percent of crop in the Poor/Very Poor category, but that's a great question.
Arlan on 7/27/2012 2:47:00 PM
|
I too would like to thank you Arlan for giving me the courage to stick to my guns throughout the spring and not give my crop away as many advised me to do. I have sold only about 10% of my corn and no beans. We have had timely rains for all but about 3-4 week strech with only a week or so total of real heat this summer, and it appears that I will have a nice crop to sell at this point. You have certainly earned the right to hold your head up high to the bears at this point.
Anonymous on 7/27/2012 1:01:00 PM
|
Finished spraying 900 acres of beans for spider mites. Some for the second time and all beans are podding. I really do not know why I sprayed the majority because the only beans that have a chance at yield are in the lowest areas. We did get a inch of rain 8 days ago and all it did was help maybe 30% of the 900 acres that is in the best low ground. If the inch of rain slowed down the spider mites I would hate to see what they would have looked like with no rain.
Anonymous on 7/27/2012 10:33:00 AM
|
Arlen, thanks for your great work. I believe of all the analysts I follow you and Bryce have proven to be the most accurate thus far in this growing cycle.
A couple questions.
First, you stated that after last weeks crop progress update both Corn and Beans are BELOW 1988 levels. Was this for the same reporting week in '88, and/or the worst reporting '88 week?
Second, it seems to me that even though we have had some moderate showers in the past few days we are still experiencing some significant yield destruction in both Corn and Beans. When either of them enter into the "very poor" category after pollination what percent of that crop has ended up not ending up harvested? Thanks
Anonymous on 7/27/2012 9:55:00 AM
|
This article from Iowa State says that ethanol process will quadruple aflatoxin concentration: http://www.extension.iastate.edu/Publications/PM1800.pdf
Arlan on 7/27/2012 8:20:00 AM
|
Our staff is pulling together a more comprehensive story on the aflatoxin issue. Look for it early next week. In the mean time, here's a link to more information from the University of Kentucky: http://www.ca.uky.edu/agc/pubs/id/id121/id121.pdf
Arlan on 7/27/2012 8:18:00 AM
|
Aflatoxin concentrates in the DDGS. Dairy's definitely don't like it. Still unclear on the science whether it carries the same toxicity at that point, but most ethanol plants are going to play it safe. Will blend if they can, unless the whole region has high levels.
Arlan on 7/27/2012 8:04:00 AM
|
I read up on aflatoxin. It appears only 20ppm is acceptable for human consumption and up to 400ppm for hogs with cattle in between. Bad stuff but guess how it can be used? Hint, what major product is made of corn that is not eaten by humans or animals? We better watch this thing play out before everyone jumps on lessoning the ethanol mandate as it may be only using discounted corn that can't be used in anything else anyway. The contaminated DDG's can not be used for feed of course but I would think the ethanol producers could compete well with crude when they are the only buyer in town (literally) for cheap unusable corn. This could get interesting.
Anonymous on 7/26/2012 9:39:00 PM
|
I greatly appreciate the below posts. As for the aflatoxin, it's outside of my expertise, but you need to be talking now to your potential buyers to ask them what levels they will reject. Then talk to your crop insurance agent to inquire about coverage. I'm told that you need to test it going into the bin if you hope to get coverage. The conditions are such that we could see a lot of corn have to be destroyed because nobody will take it, but we simply won't know until we start picking it. One more thing, I still expect a blow off top. We haven't truly had one yet. I would agree that higher prices won't be good for the industry long-term, but for better or worse, I expect it to happen. Finally, don't be surprised if we hear a lot of "better than expected yields" once harvest gains momentum, similar to what we heard last year when a lot of poorly calibrated yield monitors were reading 15 to 20 bushels over reality.
Arlan on 7/26/2012 7:36:00 PM
|
Arlan, I have concerns myself with aflatoxin in the damaged corn. I really do not know much about it other than our current conditions can cause the problem. Could Farm Futures write something up about it? It probably ought to be brought to producers attention. Maybe if it is a concern we could segregate bu. Thanks
Anonymous on 7/26/2012 6:38:00 PM
|
The posts at 4:33 and 4:55 say a lot,KUDO's to Arlan.I also believe that speculators make more money if the market keeps moving,they'll find more buyers who want get in on this.Wham bam,caveat emptor.We're in for a wild ride,hang on.
Anonymous on 7/26/2012 6:02:00 PM
|
I think traders have pretty appropriately priced their way into this drought. This maket will cool down and really become rangebound until we get some hard evidence one way or another on the crop at this point. Hindsight will likely prove that they should have taken prices a step higher, but I can undestand them not wanting be on the wrong side at these lofty prices. I don't think that our current backstep is a sign of things to come. Just a short breather.
Anonymous on 7/26/2012 4:55:00 PM
|
Report what you think Arlan, I know I want to hear it and will take it to the bank (as I already have). By reading you everyday I have sold my last old corn for $8.13 not $6.00 if I would have listened to the trader logic. I only pre sold 43 bu./acre 2012 production corn and protected half of it with calls. Collected $1.63 on those and rebought a higher call for .43 cents. I only pre sold 22bu./acre soybeans and protected half of those with calls and collected $1.89. profit on those. I re-bought some higher calls at a .96 cents. If I only read what the traders listen to I would have pre-sold AT MINIMUN 120 bu. corn around $5.40 futures (which I will not raise due to the SEVERE DROUGHT!!!). By seeing this production problem early, knowing that USDA is full of crap, and taking what you have to say with merit, I am around $220,000 better off currently than following the uninformed herd. So by all means Arlan, keep doing and saying what you will sir. I know I'll sure listen and consider it.
Anonymous on 7/26/2012 4:33:00 PM
|
I wouldn't argue that a top is in place on corn, or at least very close to it. I think demand will dry up pretty quickly at current prices. Actually, I would rather not see it go any higher. I don't want to see cattle herds sold off. I think ethanol production is going to grind down considerably. Hopefully they are able to process enough to keep their doors open for the year, and as soon as we have a supply of corn again they can light the fires. The question is how long will prices stay here? That is what is in play now IMHO, and that depends on where this crop ends up. It could take us years to dig out of this hole.
Anonymous on 7/26/2012 4:22:00 PM
|
September corn is trading at 50 cents below the new all time high from Friday. Please. You can say it. A new major top is in place.
Anonymous on 7/26/2012 3:22:00 PM
|
The USDA based the carry-out partly on an earlier harvest this year.How much of that corn has been abandoned?What does the rest of it look like?But we'll have to wait for the sorcerors proclamations.
Anonymous on 7/26/2012 3:03:00 PM
|
Export sales cancellations last week came from China. That is not a good sign. I guess a strong dollar does have an impact after all.
Anonymous on 7/26/2012 2:51:00 PM
|
2011-2012 carryout to be reported by the USDA in August just jumped by 200 million bu. to around 1.1 billion bu.Take it to the bank.
Anonymous on 7/26/2012 8:31:00 AM
|
Ethanol production down 15%. Net export sales cancellations this morning of negative 140.4 thousand metric tons. How much more demand destruction will it take before the speculators/traders get a grasp of the damage they are inflicting on the farm economy?
Anonymous on 7/26/2012 8:22:00 AM
|
My job is to call is as I see it and take the hits from the critiques. I will be wrong some times, but I stand by my record. Corn demand is being rationed, with additional rationing coming. But this market has not yet grasped the scope of production losses that have occurred, let alone the aflatoxin corn that will be unusable. Nor has it grasped the soybean production losses, or the fact that little demand rationing has yet occurred for the oilseed. Brazil produced a big 2nd corn crop so its farmers think the world is awash with corn, when that simply isn't the case. They're expanding soybean production at the expense of corn. It's always wise to take profits when offered while managing risk. But I still contend that this market has more work to do. Prices need to remain high enough for a long enough period of time to bring supply and demand into balance and I do not believe that has yet occurred. The losses are simply beyond the scope of the market yet at this point.
Arlan on 7/26/2012 7:22:00 AM
|
I like the guys comment "If I was that easily intimidated, I wouldn't have started farming in the first place". I started in 1987 and you put it very well. I imagine many would just call us a little thick for trying such a task. I'm also with Minnesota, beans have been podding for a long, long time. I tried to bring that fact to Bryce's attention and he quoted the USDA ratings (really Bryce, USDA is always right?). I also brought it to Arlan's attention but I don't think he gets it either. Beans planted in April and early may have been podding for a long time. In the dry areas, beans planted later than that do not have a stand due to no moisture for germination so it does'nt matter what stage they are in. I would like to hear the producers comment about how long their beans have been podded.
Anonymous on 7/26/2012 5:53:00 AM
|
commodity weather group expects podding at 30 %???? WTF im in central minnesota and beans here have been podding for three weeks!!! BTW they look like crap along withe the corn and we are in the 'GARDEN STATE"????
Anonymous on 7/25/2012 8:26:00 PM
|
Let's have a little less doom and gloom here. Can anyone say anything positive about our situation? High prices cure high prices. I have been farming since 1981 also and it isn't like we have not all been here before. I would rather be here with the volatility and risk than be back in the 80's with PIK certificates and $1.00 corn. Scott County Eastern Iowa.
Anonymous on 7/25/2012 8:21:00 PM
|
An embargo on corn? OK. Maybe Brazil will plant more corn and drive up the price of beans.For every action,a reaction.It's all about acres,again.
Anonymous on 7/25/2012 6:32:00 PM
|
Better start talking about an embargo they are!
Anonymous on 7/25/2012 5:32:00 PM
|
I planted my 1st crop of corn in '82,beginner's luck gave me 160 bu/acre.At $2.20/bu I lost money.This spring I was offered $4.50 under the threat of the biggest harvest ever.I didn't bite,why lock in and lose?If I was that easily intimidated,I wouldn't have started farming in the first place.
Anonymous on 7/25/2012 3:41:00 PM
|
Skyrocketing inflation in commodity prices followed by spiraling deflation. Stock market crash followed by bear trap rallies then ultimately a continued decline in equitiy investments that took decades to recover. Depression worldwide starting in Europe giving rise to dictators promising a better life to the starving masses. Interest rates at historic lows (the 10 year and 30 year treasuries hit historical lows today). Extended periods of drought and famine over many regions of the globe. Worldwide unrest and revolution. Just described historical events from 1928 through 1934. Sound familiar.But it is different this time?
Anonymous on 7/25/2012 2:39:00 PM
|
A dramatic reduction in demand in a compressed period of time ultimately results in spiraling deflation. This is the biggest concern of the Federal Reserve as we head toward the expiration of the Bush tax cuts and $1.25 trillion cuts in government spending. This combination will leave a gaping hole in the consumers household spending budget. Add a sharp rise in the cost of food in 2013, and well, you get the picture.Really won't matter who is elected, we are beyond the point of no return and have been for some time now.
Anonymous on 7/25/2012 1:57:00 PM
|
" Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it." George Santayana, 1905.
Anonymous on 7/25/2012 1:40:00 PM
|
Many key economic indicators in rural Iowa and Nebraska are now showing a significantly negative rating below 50.0. This means that the agricultural community is expecting a contraction in most areas of economic growth.The wild card is the future profitability and sustainability of ethanol production. If the ethanol business model has a dramatic shift due to political or economic reasons, all rural economic indicators will fall off a cliff. Speculation on grain prices could ultimately doom the farm economy.
Anonymous on 7/25/2012 1:26:00 PM
|
Arlan, in your opinion which is dropping faster production estimates or demand/usage estimates?
Anonymous on 7/25/2012 1:11:00 PM
|
EIA(www.eia.gov) daily ethanol production 796,000 barrels 7/20/12. 42 gallons per barrel = 33,432,000 gallons. One bushel of corn produces on average 2.76 gallons. Total bushels used per day 12,113 000. annualized over 365 days = 4,421,245,000. Current USDA projection of 2012-2013 ethanol usage 4,900,000,000. Using the most recent trend in ethanol production would create an additional carry over of corn stocks of 478,755,000. Assuming the trend falls even further due to rationing created by $8 corn, it is reasonable to project that the additional carryover could be in the 500 million to 1 billion bu. range with or with out a reduction in the RFS mandate. OECD is already pressuring this administration to lower the mandate and it is getting their attention. Careful what we wish for. BTW reduction in domestic feed usage will be calculated another day after the livestock herd liquidation is calculated.
Anonymous on 7/25/2012 1:04:00 PM
|
Romney backs renewable fuel, but indicated it will need to stand on it's own without government subsidies or mandates from the EPA. Obama who knows ? Whatever his re-election team thinks will get the most votes. Probably flip flop like he has with gay rights.
Anonymous on 7/24/2012 4:27:00 PM
|
Who is likely to do the most damage to the RFS mandate? We all know that environmentalists have fallen out of love with ethanol as a renewable energy source.Connect the dots.The Midwest needs to push the candidates to commit.(ps..I used today's crash as an opportunity to buy out a new crop contract with the local elevator)
Anonymous on 7/24/2012 3:37:00 PM
|
Exactly Mr. South Dakota. This does bring up a new question though Arlan. With the crop condition ratings (especially corn since it is a done story) can USDA still push a 134-136 yield on the next report and keep a straight face? If they do, wil it be recieved with merit by the analitical traders?
Anonymous on 7/24/2012 3:29:00 PM
|
Some of the points being made really wreak of this spring's philosophy of the heavens opening up and raining down corn, we all see how that went. You can choose to find ways to conserve gas but you cannot choose not to eat. Altough meat prices are going to be pretty tough to stomach I don't see anyone turning vegan over it. Bottom line is grain stocks are tight worldwide and no civilized country is going to allow their people to starve. I live in South Dakota which is one of about 3 states that has largely been thought of as weathering the storm(or lack thereof in this case)pretty well. South Dakota is not doing well. The only areas that are doing well can only get about 150 bu corn in the best of years, and they are for from the best of years at this point. As I understand we are, for the most part, the final stand on this crop. I think we have milked our corn for about all it is worth in terms of price but we have a ways to go on beans yet. The longer you people marginalize this drought though, the more upside you create by letting grain out the back door through lower prices.
Anonymous on 7/24/2012 11:57:00 AM
|
Who has been proven correct? If you are referring to ending corn stocks estimates or even 2012 production we won't know until after harvest. If you are referring to recent predictions on USDA grain stocks reports and WASDE carryout numbers Farm Futures does not have a good record for being close to actual report data. Being more specific would make your comment more meaningful. BTW CNBC commentator Dennis Gartman predicted a crash in corn prices after the election. He assumes that either administration is likely to repeal the RFS mandate in some way.
Anonymous on 7/24/2012 10:23:00 AM
|
The relevance of the Goldman Sachs opinion is that it gives insight into what the money crowd is thinking when they make investment decisions. Other than that, I don't give much consideration to GS.
Still very little being said about harvested acres. Accepting USDA's harvested acres estimate of 88.9 million acres makes little sense at all. It's the fourth highest percentage of planted acres on record. It makes more sense to use a percentage that occurred in other similar drought years, like '83 & '88, which would put us closer to 82.4 million acres. I know the "bears" will say that we have hardier hybrids today, but tell that the the equipment dealers who are sold out of silage choppers across the Midwest. It's got to be closer to 82 million than to 88 million.
Arlan on 7/24/2012 7:15:00 AM
|
I gotta say 8:54...We've been here before...The history of this growing season suggests that, what we need to be very cautious of are overly sanguine production forecasts, and price cues from USDA reports. Also, your allusion to the biblical quality of analysis with which you disagree is vaguely familiar...it smacks of the marginalization of dissenting estimates from people who were proven to be correct.
longkansascitywheat.wordpress.com on 7/24/2012 12:00:00 AM
|
Agrimoney article quotes Goldman Sachs stating that $9 corn will likely start the destruction of Ethanol demand due to pricing being higher than their forecast for RBOB gasoline blend stocks..
Anonymous on 7/23/2012 4:13:00 PM
|
Wasn't Jon Corzine Co-Chairman at Goldman Sachs before he made a little $1.6 billion posting error at MF Global.Oops.My bad, but I am really sorry. See ya later. Why does anyone give a crap what Goldman Sachs recommends?
Anonymous on 7/23/2012 3:45:00 PM
|
Goldman Sachs sounds like Kevin Bacon in Animal House when he screams "all is well" and the crowd runs him over. And of course Goldman Sachs can be trusted. It isn't like they have ever done anything self serving." Oh yeah by these mortgages so we can short them at the desk across the hall."
Anonymous on 7/23/2012 3:37:00 PM
|
132 bpa is based on current surveys from professionals. The average range of production estimates is 136.2 bpa as of Friday from commodity weather agencies, less an additional 4.2 bpa to adjust for a margin of error. That is the most factual information available today, and will likely influence the next WASDE from the USDA Things could and usually do change, for better or worse, but I would be very cautious suggesting biblical scale crop losses this early.
Anonymous on 7/23/2012 8:54:00 AM
|
and ethanol won't be reduced...governments and business have too much money invested in it. They're would be a much bigger uproar over allowing energy prices to rise than anything else.
Anonymous on 7/23/2012 7:23:00 AM
|
You're assuming a great deal with a 132 bpa yield and harvesting 88.9 mln acres. That's a pretty optimistic outlook at this point.
Arlan on 7/22/2012 7:58:00 PM
|
2011-2012 carryout adjusted to 947 million bushel based on recent slump in demand stats from USDA. 2012 production 88.9 X 132 bpa = 11,734, a 3 billion bushel loss. Imports 30 million. Total 12,711 million bushel. A five to six percent reduction from final 2011-2012 usage numbers based on rationing of corn @ $7-8 equal total usage for 2012-2013 of 11,875 million bushel. Leaving 2012-2013 carryout at 836 million. A further reduction in yield increasing prices will result in dramatically higher rationing estimates and long term demand destruction. The USDA likely will not drop carryout below 675 for 2012-2013. If they do, expect the worse for corn markets long term. There aren't alternative markets from grains for food. There are many alternatives for ethanol as energy. Oil price movements demonstrate that clearly when high prices correct demand. Example, 2008 high $149 a barrel to a low of $30 just months later. If ethanol is taken out of the WASDE balance sheet by even a relatively small percentage, we will all be figuring LDP again, assuming next farm bill allows it.
Anonymous on 7/22/2012 3:23:00 PM
|
Great comments Arlan
Anonymous on 7/21/2012 4:04:00 PM
|
I'm with you, 2:32...
longkansascitywheat.wordpress.com on 7/21/2012 2:47:00 PM
|
I hold my ground, based on my discussion with traders every day. Most have been treating this drought as a run of the mill drought, believing that everything would collapse once we hit record highs. Only at the end of the week did I start to see a change in sentiment, with some traders starting to believe that we are dealing with something much much bigger this time.
Alternative supplies of feed grain can come from Brazil and Canada, as has been mentioned below, but that won't fill the deficit. We will likely have to feed far more wheat than is currently projected. Brazil has it's own infra-structure issues that limit how much corn can be exported through a system focused on shipping soybeans now.
Run the numbers. This year's corn and soybean losses could be massive, far beyond what the trade is grappling with, even at these prices.
Farmers in both Argentina and Brazil are shifting acres toward soybeans for the upcoming crop. That could quickly rebuild soybean stocks. Farmers there simply fail to believe that global corn stocks are as tight as they are since all they've seen is the big 2nd crop corn crop just harvested in Brazil.
Next issue we'll have to figure out is the seed supply for next year. The past couple of years have been a stretch for seed companies trying to maintain the supply. I'm not speaking of any specific knowledge here, but looking at the breadth of the drought, seed companies are likely again going to have to lean heavily on alternative sources of seed supplies for 2013.
Finally, open interest for corn is still down a third from 2011 highs. Only recently have fund managers began to buy into this market. That doesn't mean that they will, but if I'm right about this year's shortfall and if fund managers grasp that as well, this market could go much higher. There's a reason that $12 call options were in demand on Friday.
These truly are times we will talk about for quite some time. I am not one who believes that we will have food riots, but there will be a lot of pain getting through this. I warned not to get caught in USDA's bear trap this spring, but this has proven to be far more than I expected.
Arlan on 7/21/2012 2:32:00 PM
|
Sep. SRW O.I. up 4% this week, Sep. corn O.I. up 0%.
longkansascitywheat.wordpress.com on 7/21/2012 12:07:00 PM
|
Where are the wheat buyers in this rally? Corn and beans are seting records almost daily and comparatively wheat is hu-hum. I realize things don't look as dire for wheat right now as they do corn and beans, but I think we are going to be tapping wheat pretty hard to feed our livestock and I think wheat acres could take another pretty big hit next year if we don't get a litttle premium built into the market. We start planning for 2013 in August so that we can start making fertilizer purchases in September, by then our plans are fairly concrete. Not saving much room for wheat as of right now.
Anonymous on 7/21/2012 10:16:00 AM
|
Traders are starting to come to grips with the drought? That is the understatement of the day. Corn prices are trading up over $3 since June 15th. I think the traders already had a pretty good handle on the situation before today.
Anonymous on 7/21/2012 9:36:00 AM
|
Sep12 corn gains $0.50 this week, sets records, with no net change in O.I.!? What does that mean? Anyone? Anonymous?
longkansascitywheat.wordpress.com on 7/21/2012 12:38:00 AM
|
I'm not that skeptical what could happen to corn. We don't feed cotton to livestock & there's still a lot of mouths to feed. China's not going away and you can you can go without a pair of jeans or a shirt for a while but you need food & fuel everyday. There must be good demand for corn, beans & wheat other wise they would not be going up that much. If there is "demand destruction" going on, why is dec '13 corn trading over 6.00? Markets go up & down. There's always been demand for all the grains & always will be. What else would we use to replace them? Maybe this is a wake up call for America and the world that the farmers & agriculture around the world is fairly important. My trust is in God & i know he'll take care of me no matter what happens.
Anonymous on 7/20/2012 10:56:00 PM
|
Arlan, what corn is available for import in the next 6-12 months other than Brazil? What is the range of possible bu.?
Anonymous on 7/20/2012 7:06:00 PM
|
If you are skeptical about what could happen to corn markets long term, pull up a chart for cotton over the last two years.
Anonymous on 7/20/2012 5:20:00 PM
|
I hope you can help northern neighbor. Wow, I never thought I would hope for imports of my commodity. The fear of a long term distruction of demand that I count on is frightening for my business. I never thought I would say it, but if you can fill our shortfall than that would be best in the longrun. Just please don't get to used to it as I would like to have it back when I can fullfil my duties again.
Anonymous on 7/20/2012 5:09:00 PM
|
Wow...my deepest sympathies to all producers south of the boarder that are being hit by the drought. But it's not an apocolyptic event...no one is going to starve to death. There's other countries that grow crops...maybe you'll need to import for a year...look to your friends to the north first please...I can't believe our local basis is still almost $1.00 under for new crop corn. Should make things easier for end users out there if they can buy the commodity for that much less. We'd love to help you up here. Good luck to you all
Anonymous on 7/20/2012 4:39:00 PM
|
Overall dollar inflation since 2008 has been running at about 1 1/2 to 2% annually, according to the Federal Reserve, who's biggest concern now is deflation. The dollar index was 73.42 7/27/2011 and is 83.46 today, an increase of 13.62%. US goods and services are now sold at a 13.62% premium to the rest of the world compared to just one year ago. September corn hit a high today of $ 8.2875 which is a new all time intraday high for any contract ever. Translated in foreign currency exchange the price is $9.42 in 2011 dollars. Corn is now effectively $ 1.70 higher than the 2011 nearby price threshold of $7.72 set on 8/31/2011. US corn is no longer sold at a discount to Chinese markets. Add freight and shipping and US corn is more expensive than Chinese markets. Can you understand why they are now willing to cancel undelivered cargoes and sell the corn back at a huge profit? BTW Obama doesn't print the money. That is the mandate of the Federal Reserve. The US will likely end 2012-2013 with a net carryover of approximately1.1 billion bushel after 2011 levels of rationing begin. Recovery after an entire year of demand destruction could take years, if not a decade. If the food vs. fuel debate turns out poorly for corn farmers over the next year, we will be back to carryout levels comparable to the 90s. Laws of nature always prove the further the pendulum swings one way, the more force it has going in the reverse.
Anonymous on 7/20/2012 4:31:00 PM
|
I can't blame the German for his comment to Greece. I didn't think it was possible but my corn even got worse the last week. I am now slashing my whole farm 80bu. potential in at least half and that is only if it doesn't die next week. Which is very likely as it is now fired above the ear. The neighboring fields planted just one week later are zero due to no ears at all. Not even a blank cob. Reading all the crop tours everything has got worse the last week. This is absolutely horrible. Fill your freezers with meat soon folks and maybe buy a second freezer. I wanted the consumers more informed of our agriculture but not like this. All they know now is we have a bad drought. I really don't think they know what is coming.
Anonymous on 7/20/2012 4:22:00 PM
|
Also to the 3:37 comment..... Your right, but your forgetting something, Obama has been printing money like there's no tomorrow! A dollar today is not what it was worth in '08, thats just a fact. BTW Im in minnesota "the garden state" well let me tell you all, things looked great a month ago but we are going backwards fast! 9 dollar corn is going to look cheap when the trade finally figures it out. and then theres that little problem with the USDA, last year they said the national average for corn was 148? Big BS, + they never fully accounted for prevent plant acres. Their ending stocks number is not even close!
Anonymous on 7/20/2012 11:49:00 AM
|
Thank you.
Anonymous on 7/20/2012 11:27:00 AM
|
A political decision undermining the ethanol industry is certainly possible, setting the industry back on its heels, but more than likely the industry will survive a few bankruptcies leaner and meaner once the price of corn eases again. However, herd liquidation will take some time to recover from in the livestock industry, with many producers never returning. High prices will also buy a lot of competition overseas, with increased soybean and feed grain production in Brazil and the Former Soviet Union where plenty of land resources await the financial incentive to be better utilized.
Arlan on 7/20/2012 11:10:00 AM
|
Arlan could you give us your thoughts on the unintended consequences of a severe price rationing long term for the existing markets?
Anonymous on 7/20/2012 10:20:00 AM
|
USDA has been clear during the last year that 675 million carryout will always be left in the pipeline due to assumed price rationing once ending stocks get close to 5% of usage. If they ever drop the amount below this level, I suspect they will also then ask the EPA for a reduction of 10-25% in the RFS mandate. Ethanol usage could then drop by 500 million to 1.25 billion bushel per year. Based on the 7/13/2012 weekly ethanol report annualized usage has already dropped by 500 million bushel.
Anonymous on 7/20/2012 9:59:00 AM
|
In every bull market someone somewhere predicts that grain supplies will run out. Historically that has been a sell signal. If we haven't hit the highs for corn and beans for the year we are getting close. The break lower when it comes will be harsh . They always are and that is something that you will need to grasp also.
Anonymous on 7/20/2012 9:31:00 AM
|
Arlan, I, as a producer am concerned the market is not getting the correct info. of our soybean growth stage. Much greater percentage is in the pod stage than what USDA is reporting. I assume they are using a generic factor that simply does not apply this year. As we know, beans were planted earlier this year and with stress beans pod even earlier to reproduce what they can before ultimate death due to moisture shortage. If a producer vantage is worthless then please ask a university researcher to confirm if they have more merit. My point is the beans have already been severly hurt and have much less time than what is being spoke about. Please investigate.
Anonymous on 7/19/2012 9:13:00 PM
|
3:37 pm comment, respectively I don't think you are in grasp of the entire situation. The scorched earth situation is just that. We will bypass any current history shortage of grain. The currency differences mean something when the world has a supply of grain in various countries that has a surplus they can export. What all have to wrap their mind around is we have a minimum of 6-8 months (if we are lucky) with no extra and a deficit of grain. Price competition only works when many (or at least two) have a product to sell. We will see (USDA or not) a 120 bu. Nat. Ave. of corn and soybeans WILL follow suit. We have a long way to go to true price.
Anonymous on 7/19/2012 8:52:00 PM
|
A few months back when cattle were ar record prices , i didn't hear the ethanol industry or any congressmen say we better do something about these high cattle prices there hurting the consumer at the store. Now that corn has gone up due to the drought now we need to do something? I used to raise livestock and nobody gave a rip if i made it or not. The ethanol plants aren't making money right now either and i don't hear them wineing.
Anonymous on 7/19/2012 7:24:00 PM
|
How will the rest of the world cope with record high grain prices in conjunction with 20% unemployment? Not well I suspect. I forsee a repeat of 2008.
Anonymous on 7/19/2012 3:59:00 PM
|
Arlan the new highs also need to be converted into international terms since the dollar index is 13% higher than it was in 2008 or 2011. In real monetary terms, today's record prices convert to $ 9.22 for the lead September corn contract using 2008 or 2011 dollar indexes when the last highs were hit. Does your model incorporate this factor? If you consider this factor, we probably have your scorched earth yield loss priced into the market already. China must think so. Apparently they are selling back undelivered grain. Hmmm. Something to think about.
Anonymous on 7/19/2012 3:37:00 PM
|
If ethanol is making cattle feeding so unprofitable, why are all the feedlots in my neighborhood expanding? You don't expand if you're losing money. I am also being told of cows being sent to feedlots with retained ownership.
Anonymous on 7/19/2012 3:25:00 PM
|
Maybe we could put Mr. Neely of the GSA in charge of the USDA investigation. He does a kicker job.
Anonymous on 7/19/2012 9:02:00 AM
|
I wonder what it would take to have an investigation into the USDA and their strange accounting. I would assume Washington would not want such a thing because the true outcome could bankrupt our Govt. if they had to make good. Could you imagine the political hack committee they would come up with for that investigation. At least maybe some pressure on USDA would incourage some better results. If we have sky high food prices all the consumer will hear about is the bad, bad, bad ehanol mandate from the media. Not a word will be said about the USDA being at fault for their 3 year cover up.
Anonymous on 7/19/2012 8:54:00 AM
|
Millions, or I should say billions of dollars have been poured into the research of, and production of ethanol...alternative fuels is a huge financial, and time consuming project...lots invested...no way that's going to be abandoned or reduced becuase of one bad year...there will have been plans made for a situation like this...maybe this will be the year the U.S becomes an importer of ag. (corn) commodities rather than an exporter...buy corn, sell ethanol???
Anonymous on 7/18/2012 8:00:00 PM
|
Much of the wheat supply question hinges on the degree of losses in the Former Soviet Union this season, as well as the extent to which El Nino hurts production in Australia later this year. My sense at this point is that we will draw world wheat stocks down to snug levels, but be okay as long as we can rebuild those stocks in 2013. Good global weather in major wheat producing areas will be essential for 2013. If it happens, we can quickly rebuild supplies. If not, things will get very dicey.
Arlan on 7/18/2012 5:17:00 PM
|
Great points Arlan, thank you. I was also very interested in the earlier excellent question about feedwheat stocks.
longkansascitywheat.wordpress.com on 7/18/2012 2:36:00 PM
|
I don't ever assume that there will be common sense/logic used in decisions made in Washington. I try to be prepared for anything in an election year.
When it comes to prices, keep in mind that the market must ration demand when supplies fall. It doesn't matter who the buyers are if prices have not yet sufficiently rationed demand to bring it in line with the anticipated supply. The funds have been huge buyers of soybeans, for example, but we've seen little evidence of significant price rationing to this point. Losses continue to mount, so prices need to find a level that will sufficiently slow demand.
Arlan on 7/18/2012 10:32:00 AM
|
Dont blame the funds and managed money, the blame should fall completly on the USDA! For at least the last three years they have been lying about acres and production totals. The funds and for that matter the world HAS to trade the USDA numbers, wether or not they are correct. Now its all coming out in the wash. It would be nice to see end users file a class action lawsuit against those political hack fools at the USDA!! An audit of that office would be real intresting. good luck everyone
Anonymous on 7/18/2012 7:51:00 AM
|
Okay...But it was the funds that at least tried to get corn to eight bucks last year, where it probably belonged. Is there evidence that heavy selling in the spring was Managed Money?
longkansascitywheat.wordpress.com on 7/17/2012 11:17:00 PM
|
How come we don't hear about any "demand destruction" in China? Their corn price is close to $10/bu & beans around $20/ bu. If there is any "demand destruction" who 's causing it? The FUNDS. They drive prices up & down. Maybe someone should tell the funds there hurting the livestock industry.
Anonymous on 7/17/2012 9:57:00 PM
|
Who in the world actually believes that an election year leans toward an EPA policy change? Yes, there are way too many entitled idiots who complain about the costs of groceries in the US, but seriously? With the election hingeing on Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Ohio? Really?
longkansascitywheat.wordpress.com on 7/17/2012 8:34:00 PM
|
Your crop insurance agent is correct. I stand corrected. Unharvested acres that are abandoned simply do not count toward the national average yield, so that reduces the reduction in overall yield as acres are dropped off. Arlan
Arlan on 7/17/2012 3:38:00 PM
|
It apperrs that livestock producers around the world are going to have a pretty tough row to hoe this next year if they are trying to feed corn. How long could livestock producers feed low quality wheat before that commodity gets to uncomfortable levels worldwide?
Anonymous on 7/16/2012 5:20:00 PM
|
Your crop insurance agent is correct. I stand corrected. Unharvested acres that are abandoned simply do not count toward the national average yield, so that reduces the reduction in overall yield as acres are dropped off.
Anonymous on 7/16/2012 3:01:00 PM
|
Can anyone confirm the 200% price limit for the harvest price option. Meaning a cap of $11.36 for corn and around $25.00 for beans. Arlan, in a podcast, stated a $2.00 cap for corn meaning $7.68. Anyone know for sure because it is very important.
Anonymous on 7/16/2012 11:37:00 AM
|
Hi Alrlan, will USDA factor the abandoned acres as a 0 toward the overall yield or scratch them from the record? Obviously they will be accounted for in the end but my question pertains to trendline yield.
Anonymous on 7/14/2012 5:46:00 PM
|
Arlan, my crop insurance agent swears the harvest price option allows corn and beans to raise 200% from the spring price, not $2.00 on corn as you said. Could you be mistaken?
Anonymous on 7/13/2012 5:57:00 PM
|
The basis market could still be quite volatile, because the major funds still have a lot of buying power yet if they choose to get more deeply involved in the corn market. My fear is that they will jump on board, causing futures to explode higher, and then collapse lower on European debt concerns as the focus on this year's drought begins to wane; likely well ahead of harvest.
Arlan on 7/13/2012 3:30:00 PM
|
#1.Arabs are pumping oil,no buyer gets turned down.Why?Alternative energy is a threat to OPEC.Ethanol margins suffer as a consequence.#2.China wants our corn and beans,the cheaper the better.Who has enough money to short corn and survive the last month? China.Export only if there is a surplus.Corn supports jobs,here.
Anonymous on 7/12/2012 10:39:00 PM
|
Arlan, I agree that we are moving prices into a range that typically curbs demand. New crop locally has not yet reached the coveted $7.00 mark yet. Do you think basis will do the rest of the work by harvest if I lock in the futures now?
Anonymous on 7/12/2012 8:12:00 PM
|
Mitt's a straight shooter, gonna make a great president, don't know how smart it was for his Swiss bank account to go short corn though...
longkansascitywheat.wordpress.com on 7/12/2012 5:44:00 PM
|
So what if Mitt Romney't blind trust sold 100,000 CZ contracts. Must be a very smart business man. I'll be voting for Mitt in November.
Anonymous on 7/12/2012 4:24:00 PM
|
Pardon, I forgot also I read a rumor Mitt Romney's blind trust sold 100,00 CZ contracts.
longkansascitywheat.wordpress.com on 7/12/2012 2:47:00 PM
|
I doubt all that short muscle on 7-11 came from your typical suit-and-tie on La Salle St., or the bankers for that matter. My guess its the same cats making sure there are no price inverses on the corn board, I guess we need to start rationing demand next March.
longkansascitywheat.wordpress.com on 7/12/2012 2:35:00 PM
|
I was not blaming Obama for the 7-11-12 trade. I was pointing out that kind of trade is when the elites say "see you guys can't handle things on your own". I put the blame totally on the uninformed traders that will cause us all harm in our near future. I thought I made that abusively clear and I am sorry for that by the way. Not to the traders responsible but to the others that had to listen to my ranting disgust. I think come November I will write in Arlan.
Anonymous on 7/12/2012 10:29:00 AM
|
Obama's fault again huh? So I'm supposed to vote for the most out-of-touch city stiff ever to run for public office over a farm state biofuel friendly leader?! Don't complain then when agriculture is forgotten and Romney funnels our money to the banksters. Come on people. Think for yourselves.
ps Our price discovery system is the problem. When we handed it over to suits in skyscrapers we handed our profits with it.
Anonymous on 7/11/2012 9:01:00 PM
|
OK 7-11 at 4:41 PM. I will eat my young before I submitt them to Obama. I'm just pissed beyond believe with the action we seen today. Unfortunetly we have seen it to many times in the past few years. We have to ration demand now, not when it is to late. USDA has fed us bullcrap for 3 years and the gig is up as they are trying to admit today. Yet, the mindless traders probabaly just served 100 million bu. to the end users today alone. I have the deepest simpathy for the livestock feeders wich is why we need to figure this out now, not a few months from now. Let's get the bleeding over with as soon as possible and figure this disaster out now. It appears, with current conditions, 7.50 corn is the breaking point for all end users. That means the the traders are suppose to put it at 8.00+ to find the true price discovery. Today I am literly imbarassed in our free market and these are the actions that the liberals have a point and relish in. If the free market can't do the job, what the he!! are we doing? Today is an imbarresment for our markets and price discovery. By the way, thanks for getting me off the Obama cliff.
Anonymous on 7/11/2012 7:16:00 PM
|
Why won't the USDA ever admit to having less than 100mb of beans? My broker said he's been in the business 25 years & has never seen the govt admit to it. Why not???
Anonymous on 7/11/2012 4:58:00 PM
|
ok hang on last commenter.... Yes, traders generally have their heads up there ass, they only see skyscrapers and cement everyday, not an excuse but they all live and die on the BS USDA reports they've been handed the last few years. Its all now coming to a head, as producers we've known it for a long time. My question is for the end users, you all fell for the USDA bulls#!t for the last few years and you should have known better? I talked with someone very close to a large ethenol plant over the fourth, they have very little, if any covereage for thier needs for the next 12 months because they believed USDA's BS and thought they would be buying sub $4 corn this fall, they also should have known better. Good times or bad, we producers are forced to hedge our positions to stay in buisness with the skyrocketing input costs we've had to deal with. ok, not trying to write a book, just saying. PS DO NOT vote for OBUMMER! please
Anonymous on 7/11/2012 4:41:00 PM
|
Way to go traders, and yes this is all on you, not USDA this time. You failed miserbly today and just handed a gift to consumers of our grain. The USDA finally realized their tit is in a huge ringer and put out what they did. Even USDA will lower the corn production to sub 130 and you all had your head up your A##. This is BAD, BAD, BAD for everyone and we have to ration now not later you simple minded want to be's. Sorry to be so harsh but this one lays at the market trader's and not the USDA. Damn, I might as well vote for Obama if this is my future you failures. We will have 0- carry over thanks to the literely disregard of the basics from the uninformed trader. Maybe Govt. does need to be our oversee'r with this total disregard or simple supply and demand you complete failure's.
Anonymous on 7/11/2012 2:10:00 PM
|
I did hear the spontaneous rain in 1988 comment yeasterday. I think he just made the comment in passing but yes it did happen right around this date as I recall. I remember that because we had corn planted in mid May that did not emerge until that July rain (funny the stuff you remember). The thing about 1988 is the corn was planted later (meaning a July rain should have helped it more) than this year and it still only made 85 bu. Nat. Ave. Our beans are further along this year and we will need a good solid rain soon (in a week max) to salvage even a low yielding crop.
Anonymous on 7/10/2012 7:25:00 AM
|
Arlan...I know it's impossible to "predict" when the top of a market will be...but since your much more knowledgable about the futures market than myself, could you please point out some things to look for when a "top" or even just a "plateau" may be approaching? Fundamentals have led this rally, but technical trading I'm sure will be what stops it, since the big money funds that can swing prices up or down dollars at a time trade mostly on charts. What chart signals should we watch for? I myself have not forward contracted new crop corn yet in this rally. (wish I had some old left, but USDA said we had lots, so it all went prematurely!) If it's going to keep going up then why sell? But of course we all want to make sure we don't miss out either. A little advice, and technical analysis would be greatly appreciated. Thanks.
Anonymous on 7/9/2012 9:27:00 PM
|
You guys heard the one how, in 1988, it spontaneously and miraculously rained one day with none in the forecast? I've heard it more than once. Where do those guys get that stuff, from some PR outfit?
longkansascitywheat.wordpress.com on 7/9/2012 7:18:00 PM
|
40 million here, 12 million there, we will need it all and then some to enjoy what we have had for years.
Anonymous on 7/9/2012 6:00:00 PM
|
rumor has it southern livestock producers are importing 40 million bu of corn from Brazil ? well thanks to COOL (country of origin labeling), i will be grilling canadian and mexican steaks this summer, works both ways doesn't it?
Anonymous on 7/9/2012 3:34:00 PM
|
To add to my last previous comment, I have comments 5-19, 5-26, 5-29 and others. If traders read this, I just want to point out I'm not a flake (well maybe a little). I am just a producer with a pulse of mother nature like so many producers. She makes my work schedule and I live by her commands. After 27 years of her dealing me what she will I listen, pay attention, and respect what she is telling me and early this season she was telling me hang on to your ass and hope for the freak isolated heavy storm. If this is the only outlet for traders to listen to, then that is just plain sad. We have to find a way to bypass USDA to get the real information out.
Anonymous on 7/9/2012 1:09:00 PM
|
From other sources I'm hearing National Yield over 150 still. I don't know if they are that uninformed or just plain still in denial. I suppose they were the one's harping to pre-sell historical yield at $5.50 because it was going to sub $4.00. Hey, anyone can be wrong and at the time they had somewhat of a point if you use USDA as an actual credible source. Problem is, production is worse than what I've been hearing and the sooner we ration demand the better for all. Have we not learned yet what denial or misinformed will do. According to the drought map I am in a severe drought area in Indiana (hey, I guess that is better than a extreme drought area) so let me forward my findings. My BEST corn field this year is 150 acres in size. Planted early April (later planted corn is far worse) with excellent fertility, upper third of soil types for county, 188 bu. ave. yield history, no compaction issues, planted like a garden, emerged in 9 days with even perfect stand with some of the best stacked genectics Monsanto has to offer (get the point). It finished polinating June 26 so I finally ventured out to see the outcome. Findings of yield checks are: best soil 136 bu., medium soil 62 bu., worst soil 33 bu. I'm coming up with 60-70 bu. ave. yield. Kicker is, I expect worse than that due to extremely shallow kernels. It may be up to 30-40% less. In the past five years alot of our extra yield came from larger than normal kernels, this year we will have the smallest kernels I've witnessed. This is my BEST field and my worst will be close to 0 yield. Now look at the drought map coverage of the best growing areas, we have a long way to go droping the National Yield folks and the sooner we fess up to reality the better we will be in the future. USDA will string out the truth for a year. Do you really think these self-serving current politicians want $5.00 plus gasoline in November due to lessoning the ethanol mandate. We must explode prices now, not later to make this small production work.
Anonymous on 7/9/2012 10:34:00 AM
|
If the ethanol mandate isn't written in stone,fewer acres will be planted to corn in the future.That would increase the risk of shortages.The USDA believed El Nino would show up.El never got out of bed.
Anonymous on 7/8/2012 4:01:00 PM
|
Ditto previous comments. The weather may have aggravated an existing "perfect storm", but the bulk of the blame for this current situation rests solely with the USDA. You do not rate a bumper crop with huge acres with an "above" trend yield before the crop is even all planted. We have had questionable weather all spring, with frost and uneven emergence. So much for early planting guarantees a bigger yield. Farmers, of all people should have known not to get sucked into this. We are used to weather problems, diseases, and insects. Mark Gold on Market to Market was talking about rumors that the government would step in lowering the ethanol mandate. Just like our economy. Government screwed it up, now see if they can screw it up some more. How many people will be out of work if that happens? Scott County Eastern Iowa
Anonymous on 7/7/2012 9:45:00 PM
|
I know the short-term outlook is very volatile, but is it too early to begin considering the lessons learned since planting? I've observed the market for under two years. At first I have to confess, I harbored some suspicion that, of analysis that I could find, most was in one way or another biased toward the bullish agenda. Obviously, noone knew this year's weather would be so tragic, but I can read a basic weather map as well as anyone, and I understand what basis means, and that was all it took to know that there was something risky and untethered about all the bearish analysis. Remember all that? Paraphrasing here, market had done its job by strangling demand in the cash market…All you gotta do is drive around Minn. to see how huge the crop would be…Counter-trading individuals were being "emotional"…Low prices is not the cure for low prices…We're gonna print in the fours…Gotta go with the USDA on yield per acre…On and on. It seemed Farm Futures was almost the sole source of countervailing, consistent analysis. But by consensus, the bear case became persuasive, even when the likes of Bryce and Arlan could demonstrate valid critical analysis of government and consensus numbers. History should read that those analysts and government researchers were wrong, and not in the sense that anyone can be wrong about forecasting weather. Rather, in the sense of supporting research that was known to be inconsistent or unrealistic.
longkansascitywheat.wordpress.com on 7/6/2012 5:52:00 PM
|
Indiana crop conditions are correct. I can testify to that unfortunately. I will admit that I have been very surprised that USDA has been telling the truth lately on conditions. I think they have no choice at this point because finally the con is up. No corn is no corn and that can't be hidden. USDA is definately pro consumer and that is fine but I wish they would change their name to represent that. The horrble thing about their actions is they have ultimately hurt the consumer by not letting the market ration grain better to this point. Now their is literly hell to pay for us all. We farmers will enjoy this for a total of a year until we slaughter demand. All because the market (under the guidance of USDA) has not done it's most basic job of supply and demand for to long.
Anonymous on 7/5/2012 9:27:00 AM
|
I think I see your point, you're concerned the numbers may be some attempt at an over correction. I'm not a farmer, but in Nashville, everything is crispy and the trees give that wilting appearance.
longkansascitywheat.wordpress.com on 7/4/2012 4:12:00 PM
|
to clarify... - I think we all agree the corn ending stocks reports over the past 6 months from USDA have been larger than they should've been...Arlan, Bryce, the majority of other analysts (and farmers) have said that over 800 (824 if i remember correctly) mil bushels is not the truth. However they continued to print those numbers...why? to keep prices down and stay competetive with exports? I don't know...but they printed it...probably with the belief that this years "record crop" would allow them to cover their butts, and print larger numbers again, and no one would have to know just how tight things really got. However, it's anything but record...and now they have to do something to try and limp a smaller crop through till the 2013 harvest. So what I'm questioning...are conditions really this bad or is USDA making things "appear worse than they are?" Like before with the stocks reports when they were making things "appear better than they actually were"...that's where hearing from producers would be good...lots of acres are irrigated...the taps can be turned on, but they can't be turned off...unless they run dry...have they? Irrigated land can still run over 200 bushels easily...I just find it hard to believe the crop is 48% good to excellent now, when the lowest rating of the 5 year avg (although I know this is not an avg year) is usually around 64% and that comes in the middle of august.
Anonymous on 7/4/2012 2:19:00 PM
|
Umm…Another Anonymous…Is this "how they are doing" what exactly, "by making things worse than they are?"?
longkansascitywheat.wordpress.com on 7/3/2012 9:12:00 PM
|
Anonymous…Excellent request…And Bryce, thanks for the by-state yield breakdown…Wow…My best to you farmers out there waiting for some rain…Bryce, here is to your Corn in the Teens Podcast! Not that I'm holding you to that, I take it in the spirit I think it was meant. That is, this market has been operating under false premises for months, and given the unknowns, who knows what is possible.
longkansascitywheat.wordpress.com on 7/3/2012 8:43:00 PM
|
Arlan and Bryce, and fellow farmers...just wondering what your thoughts are on the crop condition ratings...do they seem realistic? When I look at charts comparing the condition ratings over the last several years and the five year average, the line on them for 2012 goes straight down for both corn and soybeans. Obviously it can't go straight down forever, and as does any chart line, it will eventually flatten out, and most likely before the year is over even begin to climb back up again. I'm just starting to wonder if the condition reports are over exaggerated. In an earlier post, someone stated "cant wait to see USDA try to explain themselves out of this one!" with regards to their several past reports of higher than expected stocks, and upcoming yields. Is this how they are doing it? Making things seem worse than they are? I read, and reserch as much as I can about just how devisting this dry spell has been for the U.S. I farm in southern Ontario Canada, and we too have experienced a major lack of moistue, but I feel we've been getting a little luckier than the mid westerners. Although crops aren't pretty, they are looking better than I think most would expect. Would love to hear some reports from real people, not just USDA. Have a good Independance Day Holiday American neighbours
Anonymous on 7/3/2012 8:41:00 PM
|
Arlan, With our last ratings (7-2-12) could you figure our projected yield. I would like to see a more reasonable starting point than the USDA 166 bu. With all these additional acres surely it would be reasonable to start with 156. Thanks
Anonymous on 7/2/2012 4:31:00 PM
|
Anonymous, thanks...And and Arlan and Bryce, Double Thanks! You guys are absolutely the best, most accessible analysis out there. Integrity, intelligence, research...that's what we're askin' for, and you guys are givin' it away. It's gotta be exhausting (even worse with new trading hours), but I for one eagerly anticipate every last post and podcast daily...Thanks guys...
longkansascitywheat.wordpress.com on 7/1/2012 10:44:00 PM
|
I agree with the previous comment. It does seem strange that an individual farmer can (and is expected to) hedge his production and cost but many ethanol producers seem to work off of 1950 style business models. If an individual farmer sitting in his small office can (and is expected to) do this why didn't the ethanol plants hedge when crude was alot higher and corn alot lower? Some did I'm sure but why didn't the rest? Maybe you can introduce them to a broker Arlan.
Anonymous on 6/29/2012 6:20:00 PM
|
cant wait to see USDA try to explain themselves out of this one! they have been fudging the numbers for three years and now the bill is coming due. if usda had to actually stand behind their numbers like all corporations in this country, most of them would be in jail
Anonymous on 6/29/2012 6:17:00 PM
|
Wouldn't it be nice to see; 1) the USDA accommodate some reality over the last three years in establishing their "trendline," and 2) the ethanol producers engage some risk management rather than threatening to shutter plants at every price increase? Newsflash: With yields at 150 bushels an acre, you're not going to be able to grind 5 billion bushels of 5-dollar corn.
longkansascitywheat.wordpress.com on 6/29/2012 4:45:00 PM
|
6/28/12 South-Central MN - Corn was looking good until this weeks heat arrived. Corn is starting to roll on hills and lighter soil areas. Yield potential will start to slide very quickly without some significant rain very soon.
Anonymous on 6/29/2012 7:00:00 AM
|
Arlan, I feel the 84.6 bu. Nat. yield in 1988 is a real clue of our future for 2012. Add in some additional bu. for techniques and hybrids and there you go. To be generous maybe 35 bu. and that puts us at 120 bu. National Average for 2012. Remember for every acre in Minnesota with 200 bu. potential their is a corresponding acre south and east that will make 0 or slightly above. As for South Dakota, I have been there hunted their beutiful pheasant and talked to the farmers. They dont farm for 200 bu. with their inputs because it is simply not reality. Simple way to come up with what our future holds I know, but with the weather forcast the 120 bu. Nat. Ave. is our future.
Anonymous on 6/28/2012 3:22:00 PM
|
I don't recall ever saying a 10% reduction in yield. I have said that the crop is a disaster in southern Illinois, with some farmers destroying fields already. We have pegged the national crop at 156.9 bushels per acre as of Monday, and that number will likely be in the low 150s and falling this coming week. Perhaps you've mixed up my comments with someone else. However, a 10% drop would be a 149.4 bushel yield, something that is certainly in play. The crop yielded 84.6 bushels per acre in 1988.
There's no doubt that the corn is a disaster in the southern Midwest, but there's also no doubt that it looks fantastic in Minnesota and surrounding areas. This week's heat is moving the area of stress north, taking yield lower. The longer the weather pattern holds, the lower the yield goes.
Arlan on 6/28/2012 1:40:00 PM
|
Arlan, Please come drive through southern Illinois from I-64 South. There is NO Corn Crop. We have had no substantialn rain south of Interstate 64! You mentioned reduction of 10% in yield? More like we will be lucky to harvest 10%!
Anonymous on 6/28/2012 11:23:00 AM
|
I believe the USDA report will show a increase in bean acres, not because of double croping
but because of 13.00 dollars a bushel for beans and 5.09 for corn at planting time.
Illinois farmer.
Anonymous on 6/26/2012 9:48:00 PM
|
Arlan, What was the national corn yield in 1988? I understand hybrids are different but if our condition ratings are the same this year I would like to compare the two. Especially since we have to be further along in maturity to date.
Anonymous on 6/26/2012 4:12:00 PM
|
I appreciate the ongoing reports that I get about the disaster in the southern and eastern Midwest, which I comment on far more on my Twitter feed that is followed by many traders and grain industry representatives. Taking 10 bushels off the national average yield would remove roughly 900 million bushels from production. Taking 20 bushels off the yield would drop us below last year's 147.2 bushel per acre yield and remove roughly 1.8 billion bushels from the crop. I said a week ago that the market must factor in the possibility of a sub-150 bu yield. That possibility becomes much greater today after weekend forecast models turned much hotter and drier for the next two weeks when much of the nation's corn crop will go through pollination.
Arlan on 6/25/2012 8:46:00 AM
|
Arlan, I would like to reconmend an eye opening drive to you and anyone else. Indiana 41 and 63 offers an interesting story. Benton County (some of Indiana's best soils) are hanging on fairly well. They need a good drink soon but at least look like corn should. As you drive south you literally see horrible conditions (as in done, toast, not happening with rain or not). It starts in about 5 mile intervals mixed with periododic short stretches where the corn is severly stressed but may still produce low yielding corn with several good rains (as if that is going to happen anytime soon). On 63 there is a real interesting site. A corn field has a pivot irregation where the watered corn is full tassel and of course green. The corn outside of the pivot is 3 foot shorter, fired half way up and refuses, or just plain can't even shoot one tassel. According to the emerged days and growing degrees we should be full tassel on much of the corn in Indiana and we simply are not. The corn is simply completely out of water and shut down. Even if we would start with good rains tomorrow Indiana will not contribute to this years corn stocks.
Anonymous on 6/23/2012 9:41:00 PM
|
Arlan, I have thought the same thing as the previous post. Everything I read is we may be losing a few or possibly 10 bu. corn yield off the USDA grand 166. New hybrids or not, gray withered corn that stays that way through polination and fill does not yield much if any. If we stay on this course there will be corn unharvested in many areas. My father said with our new hybrids I will be better than the 30 bu. corn he had in 1983. I replied yes your right, I may get 60-80bu. If we have a huge area that bad I just can't see anything but 20-30% minimum off the trend. If that happens how the heck will USDA figure out how to throw that out of the future trend calculations too.
Anonymous on 6/21/2012 8:30:00 PM
|
Hi Arlan,
A day or two ago you said something about a potential 1.5B bushel swing in corn production depending on where the numbers land. That's roughly 10% of the projected crop for the year if memory serves me correctly. Given the current trajectory of our crop do you feel that a 10% loss over the entire country is fairly conservative? Do you think that a 20-25% yield reduction is out of the question? What would the implications be if we zapped 3-4 billion bushels off the balance sheet?
Anonymous on 6/21/2012 5:08:00 PM
|
Why are the world's gov'ts holding off on quantitative easing (money printing)? Is Washington afraid that the fresh greenbacks would float across the pond to Europe?It's like a game of chicken,see who blinks first.If Germany printed enough money for the Euro losers,would it benefit Germany?Would money start to leave Germany,too?Or maybe the bankers want a change of power in Washington? Another 6 months of stinginess would do it.
Anonymous on 6/21/2012 3:56:00 PM
|
Watching the grain markets this past 6-8 months has been even more disgusting than usual. I have seen more of the usual bogus USDA reports along with all the traders focused on the latest insignificant country in financial trouble and disregarding grain fundamentals. I'm in my second driest crop year in 27 years and it appears a huge area of the midwest is catching up with me. I keep on thinking we will get some timely rains and the traders will end up right by not adding substancial weather risk price. They will not even now how close we came to complete failure of the corn crop..... Well, we missed another small rain and the forecast is for the same for the dry areas and appears the dry will spread into the good areas. This time USDA, traders and unfortunately the consumer will get there head handed to them because of the complete disregard for simple grain fundamentals. I hate having a crop disaster but maybe this it what we need to get back to the basics. Europe and all that stuff doesn't mean a thing if we have horrible (and I mean horrible) production.
Anonymous on 6/21/2012 3:54:00 PM
|
Holy crap, do we finally have a weather market? Hallelujah! Let me get this straight now: short stocks from last year, likely short crop this year = higher prices. Where will rents, fertilizer, seed, and chemicals end up? Next thing will be a run on locking in input costs for next year. You know what suppliers do when that happens. Got to love this farming.
Anonymous on 6/18/2012 10:07:00 PM
|
don't believe that Brazil has this big corn crop. Not according to there crop analyst.Ditto to the previous comment.
Anonymous on 6/15/2012 6:37:00 PM
|
That pretty well sums it up.
Arlan on 6/15/2012 4:42:00 PM
|
Rumor that we might be importing some corn from Brazil? Why? We supposedly have 850 mil bu here that nobody can find or are we importing it so the USDA can add to our ending stocks. The only reason the #1 corn producing country would have to import any corn is because WE DON'T HAVE ANY.
Anonymous on 6/15/2012 3:26:00 PM
|
A question was asked below about why USDA left its corn yield unchanged in the June 12 crop report? We may all ask that question, but that's the nature of USDA. It's only changed its corn yield estimate in the June report 4 times in the past 20 years and it hasn't changed its soybean yield estimate in June since 1996. As such, we were not expecting it in this report. It would have been more newsworthy if it had made an adjustment.
The June 29 report should show tight corn stocks, just as it did on March 30. This report will be done by USDA-NASS, where as the monthly crop reports are by USDA-WASDE. It will then be up to the trade to see which one it believes. The cash market will reflect reality either way. NASS will also be updating acreage estimates. Expect it to show a big increase in soybean acres due to large double-cropping intentions on June 1 when the survey was conducted. However, many of those intended acres will likely never get planted unless we see a change in the weather pattern over the next couple of weeks. Many double-crop areas are simply too dry yet to plant, let alone support establishment of the crop.
Arlan on 6/14/2012 4:26:00 PM
|
The financial markets often factor in greater fears ahead of an event than the actual impact of an event when it happens. As such, there is a possibility that a break up in the euro-currency group of nations would bring about a sigh of relief on Wall Street. However, the greater fear right now is that there would be a massive run on the banks, especially in debt-ridden countries. Europe doesn't have the same safe-guards as we do in the United States to prevent a run on the banks. It's feared that such a run could bring down the banking system there, in which U.S. banks also have some investment. Euro-leaders are working on possible solutions to shore up confidence in the banks, but are not there yet, leaving the markets vulnerable for now.
Arlan on 6/14/2012 4:20:00 PM
|
Arlan, Am I wrong. If Spain,Greece and who ever fails and leaves the Euro wouldn't that be a plus for the strong european countries pulling the wieght of these dead beats. As I understand France lowered their work week to 32 hours while Germany increased to 60 hour work week. Obviously, a big spread in priorities and what is best for their individual countries. I am not a big Germany fan but you have to give them credit. Poor SOB's are pulling the weight of 16 countries that want to do nothing but live off of the people that will actually work for the better good. Hmmm, closer to home than what we think. Anyway, if the deadbeats in Europe exit the Euro wouldn't that be a good thing? Wouldn't traders feel better knowing the Euro is only the cream of the crop and the intitled folks are using something else? Come to think of it can we do the same thing here in the US?
Anonymous on 6/13/2012 6:50:00 PM
|
Given all that has happened in the last 3 months, what is the mentality in leaving stocks unchanged in corn? Two months ago everyone thought it should be lower. They left it the same. One month ago everyone thought it should be lower, they raised it. Today everyone thought it should be lower, they left it unchanged. Go figure. What kind of surprises will be in the ending June report?
Anonymous on 6/12/2012 8:34:00 AM
|
A lot of uneven corn fields in this area. Gaps in stands, variations in corn emergence from 1 to 2 leaves to 4 to 5 leaves in the same fields. Many fields planted later after excessive rains ended up being too dry after 3 weeks of no rains. Many fields planted earlier with rootless corn syndrome and damping off. Some replanted. The top is off the yields in this area. It is hard to predict yields this early (only USDA does that) but I would not be surprised if we did not even beat last years yields. Just walking area fields you can find something wrong with each one. We received tenth inch rain Sunday night and none for the rest of this week. Condition reports should be reflecting these conditions. Have we even got any weather premium in this market or are we just reflecting a tight old crop? It is hard to read where it is, where it was just 2 weeks ago, and where it should be given stocks, demand, weather, and Euros. Eastern Iowa Scott County
Anonymous on 6/11/2012 11:47:00 PM
|
Some corn has already been hurt by the dryness. However, if it's going to turn in time to avoid significant losses for the national crop overall, the turn needs to happen now. It's tough to turn around a drought. Weather pattern needs to be such that it pumps a lot of moisture into the Midwest to overcome dry atmosphere that is a product of dry soils. Direct yield losses occur when corn is stressed just prior to tassel and beyond. That's now the case in the southern Midwest. Latest seasonal update has heated up a bit more for the month of July as well according to Commodity Weather Group.
Arlan on 6/11/2012 7:57:00 PM
|
I live in SE Colorado.The canal I farm on had 26 days of water.If it rain's their is no corn to save everybody did prevent planting.Second cutting of hay is burning up 103 today 6-9-2012.Their will be know record crop here.I'm on the Arkansas river some of the lowest river reading ever.
Anonymous on 6/9/2012 6:44:00 PM
|
I feel pretty comfortable that we have taken the 1.5B+ bushel carryover off of the table. The weather can certainly turn around and make a nice crop, but we have likely knocked the top end off. Would you agree Arlan?
Anonymous on 6/9/2012 10:48:00 AM
|
Very very very dry here in West Central IA. NW Iowa (parts) received a little rain on Friday afternoon but it passed us by. Serious here in W Central IA. Like to take part in grain rally that will certainly come next week but how can you sell what you may not get? Even severe weather would be welcome rather than continued drought. This week is probably last chance we have to rescue crops much less yield. Wondering if crop insurance will save us - forward contracting very light here and most everyone on hold as are we. Never seen it this bad before - rather have flooding, anything! We can spray for insects, and tile for flooding but can't do anything at all w drought. Upsetting! Hoping the band of severe weather hits us on Sunday even though we didn't take out extra crop insurance - at least we would have something at harvest. Grass is brown. Last year averaged 190 bpa even with hot dry pollination, now I'd be happy w 160!
Anonymous on 6/9/2012 9:37:00 AM
|
Arlan, I'm the a-hole that said be your own man. I say this because usually you are just that. I just get frustrated with the norm when it comes to USDA and the mindless trader's following suit. I throw up a little when I hear about the continually EU crap (although we are right behind). Usually your analysis is spot on even if it is not the popular thought. I just want to keep you on your toes to keep doing the same even when it is not popular. Exports are slowing and I want to hear your take of the next USDA stocks report. Is domestic feed (wheat to high) going to offset this? Or is the Ethonal production going to offset this? Forget about USDA finagled numbers and report. What is on your mind?
Anonymous on 6/8/2012 4:14:00 PM
|
I find it impressive that the farmers in Argentina can rally together to withhold grain from the market for an unjust. I tip my hat to them.
Anonymous on 6/7/2012 8:17:00 PM
|
I'm filling in for Arlan a little this week, so I'll add a comment here. The market is starting to look at the dry conditions, but gets distracted by shiny objects easily. Monday's crop ratings should be lower, and if rains don't materialize we should be in full weather market mode -- unless financial markets blow up.
Two factors are important here. First, traders tend to look at the percentage of the crop rated good to excellent nationally. So far conditions have been dropping in Illinois, Indiana and Missouri, but losses were offset by gains elsewhere.
Second, never ignore the influence of outside money. Fund interest in owning corn didn't cause the bull market of 2006-2008, but it helped push the price curve higher than it would have gone otherwise. If funds leave, the potential price of corn drops by as much as $2 a bushel.
There's a third factor: Competition. The U.S. is slowly losing market share in corn because farmers around the world are gaining access to the same seed, machinery and fertilizer. Ukraine looks like they're going to grow a lot of corn this year. Their potential may be overstated, but it's keeping buyers on the sidelines, at least for now.
Bryce on 6/7/2012 4:20:00 PM
|
Not sure who's man I am, since I don't read anyone else's commentary. I know USDA doesn't want to claim me after comments I've made. :-) I've been clear that old-crop corn, soybean demand is at unsustainable levels due to USDA's numbers that keep futures prices down, and that USDA's new-crop corn yield is flawed. However, I've also said that the cash market will likely have to do the heavy lifting of rationing demand that the futures market refuses to do. Makes for great dialogue though.
Arlan on 6/5/2012 2:25:00 PM
|
Arlan, Arlan, Arlan, Be your own man.
Anonymous on 6/4/2012 6:52:00 PM
|
with record highs in June 96 to 105 if we set new highs with the short rain what do you get record crops not offen
Anonymous on 6/1/2012 5:24:00 PM
|
Southern Ontario is very dry.Transplanters for various crops are parked,irrigation in place for tobacco.Corn and beans looked rough today,winter wheat is losing potential daily.Too dry to spray emerged weeds.Fund managers are asleep at the wheel,I'm holding tight on old and new crop.Mark
Anonymous on 5/31/2012 4:43:00 PM
|
I appreciate the feedback from other areas. I don't think the markets, Arlan and Bryce, fully understand what is going on. I respect the perspective of both of you boys but sometimes the perspective of a producer actually counts. I am trying to say that the last time I seen soil conditions this dry, this early, was 1988. In fact minus our better practices it is worse. Yes, we do have a good stand with lots of potential, BUT, we are dry way down. Nothing a 1" or two is going to relieve. I have never seen subsoils this dry this early and "yes" the crop is ahead of schedule by a few weeks. After all the reason we planted so early is because it was fricken DRY way early. I have had my fill boys with the European mess and the headlines. Let's pay attention closer to home and maybe the trader's will follow. I see you guys collopsing and giving in to the wave that is dominating at present. You are both better than that "Arlan and Bryce" so look at the fundamentals and your back yard and call it like it is. Have I gave up on old crop, Hell yes, but holly crap, new crop has a really long way to go. This producer is saying right now, without way above precip, the huge production is a farse. Somebody capable of looking up the stats, please write about what production is with so many 90 degree plus days in May with a dry winter and a early planted crop.
Anonymous on 5/29/2012 8:02:00 PM
|
Just read a report that the Ukraine canola crop was severely damaged over the weekend by FROST and they expect there crop to be about half of normal. How could there corn and sunflowers and wheat not have been damaged by frost if canola was? There will little if any canola exported from the Ukraine this year.
Anonymous on 5/29/2012 5:12:00 PM
|
Never have seen corn rolling this early in the season. All the early April corn is rolling bad. Beans are not growing either in central Illinois. Corn is only12-15inches tall.
Anonymous on 5/29/2012 1:13:00 PM
|
ih the futures market simply refuses to do its job in real price determination what is it,s usefulness
Anonymous on 5/29/2012 12:01:00 PM
|
quote "increased risk for drought problems in Australia 60 to 90 days from now when its winter wheat crop emerges from dormancy amid a developing El Nino."
Arlan there is no winter dormancy in Australia, wheat grows from the from time it is planted in May through to harvest in November. 60 to 90 days from now will be flowering and grain fill.
Anonymous on 5/27/2012 9:25:00 PM
|
Ditto. Traders will be second guessing this crop all summer. That is how they make their money. Run the market up, then down, up, then down. Volatility they call it. I call it something else #!$#!$. Agweb.com has a good crop comment section. I don't think this site has something similar other than these comment sections. If it does, maybe Arlan can point it out. Problem is, sometimes all you see are negative comments about poor crops and people are reluctant to brag about how good their crops are, when others are not doing good. But it still gives you a perspective about other areas. I feel Arlan and Bryce also do a good job of looking at the broad picture, not just the charts. BTW, east central Iowa is dry also. 3 weeks without rain. A lot of later planted seeds in dry soils waiting for moisture. This plus the germination issues with earlier plantings will reduce yields for sure in our area. We know this now, USDA and the traders won't acknowledge it until August or September. Meanwhile, let's just relish in the fact that we know something they don't, and maybe we can make some money off of it. Scott County Eastern Iowa
Anonymous on 5/26/2012 11:16:00 PM
|
Need to know if I'm in the only area. Corn was all planted first half of Arprl just like all the hype. We have had roughly 3" of rain since 1st of March and we were dry through winter. All corn in area has been rolled up for a solid week and my local forecast is puney for possble rain in the next week. 90 degree forecast for the next 4 days. Corn is in the stage when the ear size is suppose to be determined. Can I still have a big crop "sure", but it will take very timely, above average rain forward to pull it off. I give it 80-20 odds. 20 percent chance to pull off a big crop. Am I the only area like this?? I really want to know because all I read is "well we just need a little rain and it's coming so sell the crap out of the markets because it's going cheaper" NW Indiana.
Anonymous on 5/26/2012 11:22:00 AM
|
There is a lot of old crop corn to be had in south central Nebraska. I know of several large producers with full bins of unmarketed corn waiting for higher prices. There are also several farmers busy hauling corn to town. My storage is 1/3 full and I've just emptied all but one pen off cattle (which go to grass this weekend). I almost pulled the trigger and sold the balance yesterday.
Anonymous on 5/25/2012 4:56:00 AM
|
The May 18th post I was 'just wondering' what USDA would do to knock the top off the bull markets....now we know. Reports of excellent crop conditions (when there is a drought continuing in the middle section of the country), export sales cancelled or down (primarily because there is no old crop corn to be had) and finally and possibly because China is going to need to pick up some more bargain grain. If and only IF the new crop does make average production and with the current shortage of supply I don't see how we can end up with anything other than a huge deficit of grain in 2013......Kansas Comments.
Anonymous on 5/24/2012 9:19:00 PM
|
and other thing... the weather "guessers' are talking rain in the 7-10 day forcast???? REALLY?!? you dumb basterds cant tell us whats going to happen tomorrow morning let alone whats going to happen the end of next week!
Anonymous on 5/22/2012 5:48:00 PM
|
finding it funny that rumors are China cancelling corn purchases?? Well after talking to someone in the know at a shipping port in the gulf... they want the product BUT even with the historically high basis nothing is moving their way to ship... hmmmm better ask USDA where all the old crop is??
Anonymous on 5/22/2012 5:43:00 PM
|
Arlan, It seems I should quit farming, sell ground and machinery at highs and just sit in a air conditioned office and play the volitility of grains. Sells off buy, runs to resistance sell. Am I wrong? The sell off in July today is just plain insane at best and I really don't care about Europe. Am I wrong, just how much of our grain do we sell them anyway and how much lessor will they buy if they can't get their check book in order? Is this a buying opportunity for old corn and new beans? Obviously, no matter how tight old corn stocks are I'm going to have to get creative to get $7.00 or better for corn in the bin. In your best opinion is it time to get creative as in Texas long hedge?
Anonymous on 5/22/2012 2:33:00 PM
|
So far this spring is setting up to be far less than ideal. Still have some neighbors to get corn in yet. Many others have replanted from germination issues. Conditions have gone from too wet to becoming too dry with no rain in sight for possibly the next 10 days. Can't wait for July weather. The crops may not even make it till then if they were recently planted and run out of moisture before getting roots established. Trend yields becoming less likely every day. This all sounds like doom and gloom, but right now things just don't look promising. Why on earth would you be locking in new crop prices based on USDA or any analyst that does not consider lower yields a strong possibility at this point? Scott County Eastern Iowa
Anonymous on 5/21/2012 12:28:00 AM
|
8-12" tall corn suckered up like pineapple tops today. Just dug a 4 foot post hole and hit no decent moisture until 3 foot depth. Is this May or late July? At least I have no worries because USDA tells us I have my best corn crop yet coming this fall??? If I was only so optimistic. We will need much above average precip from here forward to pull of trend yield especially when USDA chooses to leave out 2011 in their calculations. Indiana
Anonymous on 5/19/2012 3:46:00 PM
|
Let's see, grain prices are starting to reflect the reality that supplies are tight, speculation of this years crop are starting to dim, dry weather is covering a large area of the wheat belt and China is buying with gusto on down markets.....wonder what USDA will do this week to knock the top off again??? Just wondering.....Kansas Comment
Anonymous on 5/18/2012 10:13:00 PM
|
First, to understand why money flowed out of the soybean market after such a bullish soybean report you have to track the flow of money across the commodity spectrum. We're currently seeing a flight from commodities at large due to rising economic concerns in Europe, China, and to some extent the United States. The growth in global demand for the food-based commodities changed little in the great recession of 2008 and 2009, but fund managers often paint broad strokes.
Second, the interview referred to below is good. One of the panel members in particular asked some very good questions. I would contend that some of the questions were not answered adequately, but it was a good start to the discussion.
Arlan on 5/13/2012 4:53:00 PM
|
For those that are interested, Univ of Illinois Commodity Week on May 11 has an interview with Jerry Bange, WAOB in Wash, D.C. He is one of those responsible for the WASDE reports. Several tough questions were asked about the current report. At the link: http://www.agweb.com/radio.aspx Scott County Eastern Iowa farmer
Anonymous on 5/12/2012 10:06:00 PM
|
I'm not a chicago trader myself, i just try to make money out of flat product trading but i wonder why the exchange is down so much while USDA presented such bullish numbers? Arlan, do you have a clear opinion about that?
Thanks
Anonymous on 5/12/2012 3:47:00 AM
|
I truly believe that we could see record cash basis this summer for old-crop corn. I also believe that June 29 quarterly stocks report and planted acreage report could make for one of the more significant days of the year.
Arlan on 5/11/2012 10:36:00 AM
|
By releasing funny numbers, maybe USDA is doing farmers all a favor. It definitely keeps the demand up. Meanwhile, sometime down the road, if you realize the game they are playing, you will be able to capitalize on shortfalls/corrections with higher basis levels and prices. Risk here, but then again farming is more risky than ever. Borrowing from new crop to cover old crop also does not explain how you can expand stocks next year, even if we have a bumper crop. So far the scenario is playing out just like a couple years ago with another more realistic June report coming. Heck of a way to run a business, but then when government is involved, things are illogical. BTW in our area some just started planting corn again, others still need to wait a couple more days - too many wet spots. Eastern Iowa Scott County
Anonymous on 5/11/2012 7:59:00 AM
|
Arlan, What's USDA excuse for leaving exports unchanged when we just sold 140 million bu last week? Their too afraid to admit how much corn we really have therefore they have to "fudge" the numbers & keep the market from going higher. Why even have weekly export sales, the govt doesn't count them anyway.
Anonymous on 5/10/2012 9:31:00 PM
|
If July goes to $5.75 the cash market has a bundle to make up. Could we really see more than a $1.00 plus basis in Indiana. We were at .35 over prior to today and obviously buyers where not getting the buschels. Oh well, at least I can sleep well now knowing I have a huge corn crop coming this fall according to USDA. For some reason I don't think I'll take it to bank just yet. Maybe the folks at USDA are just glass half full kind of people???
Anonymous on 5/10/2012 4:15:00 PM
|
Cash market will always do its job, whether the futures market does or not.
Arlan on 5/10/2012 10:01:00 AM
|
Another illogical government report at best. Can't we put some pressure on our great Secretary of Agriculture Tom Vilsack to make these reports more credible with less "judgements"? Cash markets should ultimately prevail, right? Scott County Eastern Iowa farmer.
Anonymous on 5/10/2012 8:23:00 AM
|
Unfortunately, the market can trade illogically longer than one can stay liquid. I remain optimistic that patience will be rewarded for old-crop corn over the next 45 to 60 days, but based on my initial statement, there is risk. The cash market may have to do the job the futures market has yet to do.
Arlan on 5/8/2012 10:23:00 AM
|
$6.50? Wow, your lucky...with our local basis it puts old crop corn at $5.75 I'd take it!
Anonymous on 5/8/2012 9:33:00 AM
|
Arlan, what is a guy to do with old corn? Everyone says no stocks and high sales. Problem is other than a little basis run futures keep declining. I just can't believe I should sell $6.50 cash old corn. Heck, I forward sold a bunch $6.50 corn more than a year ago when we were going to have more stocks and less demand. May futures are great but my buyers moved to July a long time ago.
Anonymous on 5/5/2012 8:02:00 AM
|
Mother Nature has its call again. Reason why farmers don't get excited when the trade says we are going to have a bumper crop. Planters did not roll in eastern Iowa this week and likely most of next week also. Still about 50% of corn left to plant and most of beans. Over 2" rain last night and 4" over last week. More to come this weekend. Heavy storm damage in Henry County, Wayland, Iowa. Flooding in many areas. 100% corn planted by May 10 not likely at this time! Scott County Eastern Iowa farmer.
Anonymous on 5/4/2012 7:03:00 AM
|
To this point, China has been an aggressive buyer of U.S. corn as prices approach $6 for lead futures, even though the numbers for them would work to pay 50 cents to $1 more. That tells me that it is trying to get what it needs to get by, but would likely become much more aggressive if we harvest a big crop this fall that knocks prices even lower. It is also buying a bit of corn from the Black Sea region, along with feed wheat to fill its immediate needs. None of our sources in China have suggested that China would buy 40 mmt to replenish its reserves, but probably would buy enough to keep our stocks from becoming burdensome and then hope that Argentina has a big crop next year.
Arlan on 5/1/2012 2:46:00 PM
|
A "specialist" from my local coop had an article this morning that said China needs 40 MMT to replenish reserves. If my numbers are accurate that is over 1.5b bushels. Oddly enough that is pretty much exactly what the feared stock number is. Is that the same kind of numbers you have been hearing for Chinese needs? How eager do you feel they will be to replenish their supply? Do they typically replenish when the price is right or do they do it come well or high water?
Anonymous on 5/1/2012 12:16:00 PM
|
Even if there is a big enough crop to raise stocks and keep prices lower, who is to say that producers will let go of corn at lower prices especially considering there is a pretty good chance they will be able to sell soybeans at a nice premium and stay liquid a little longer. They may just save that extra production for a future rally if they are able to sit on it. A big crop doesn't matter if it is not made available. NESD.
Anonymous on 4/28/2012 10:45:00 AM
|
Yes, China is good at making comments to impact the markets. One of the best signs that it is about to buy is when it releases a statement saying that a large crop will leave it with more than enough supplies to meet demand. As for the U.S. crop, the below scenario fits very well with the seasonal tendency for corn prices to rebound in the month of May as traders start to grasp that the growing season is far from over. The emergence rate becomes more important than the planting rate, followed by actual crop conditions.
Arlan on 4/25/2012 4:32:00 PM
|
I believe our old corn crop is effectively rationed now in that the demand will exceed the supply. We are on very thin ice here. What difference will $8.00 corn make if there are no bushels to be had? Does the price have to go up to ration something that is already rationed? In other words, if the market does not care if we run out of grain, then won't the rationing be the inability to fulfill orders? This crop has been rationed as a result of traders and USDA riding a wave of misinformation and innuendos. What recourse will foreign countries have if their purchases can not be fulfilled? Wait until the big new crop comes in August? All these problems with cold weather, frost, and germination issues in Illinois will ultimately delay some areas and certainly affect yields. Sounds more like a normal or behind normal planting spring to me. Some farmers in our area waiting till after this next cold spell to plant. There will be minimal heat units for the next week. Corn, whether it is in the ground or in the bag, will be the same and another week behind. Scott County Eastern Iowa Farmer
Anonymous on 4/24/2012 10:31:00 PM
|
Arlan, I realize China has been buying corn all along in various amounts,but am I wrong in thinking they are manipulating the markets by spreading rumors then backing out. I see where I think it is Sinograin (which I assume is a China market)said they would make corn purchases when the price level met their requirements. Hopefully the price meets the producers requirements as well.
Kansas Comments
Anonymous on 4/24/2012 8:20:00 PM
|
The biggest fear with frost at this late stage is that the wheat heads turn up empty due to cold temps killing the pollen. A lot of times the heads will turn white, but I've seen fields that looked relatively normal turn out with no grain in the head. I still believe that we will end up seeing more damage than is now visible, but unaffected wheat is still on pace to do well. Need to get past the next scare early next week.
Arlan on 4/24/2012 6:41:00 PM
|
more frost damage out their than you think look at the low parts lower it is the colder it gets
Anonymous on 4/24/2012 6:17:00 PM
|
But China has been quietly buying small amounts of corn all along. It's already purchased more than 160 million bushels this year, not counting what's currently listed under "unknown destinations."
Arlan on 4/24/2012 8:28:00 AM
|
I believe China is outsmarting USDA and lose more knowledge while they are sleeping then USDA has while they are awake! They slip 'rumors' out that they are going to buy, then the price of corn firms, then there is no confirmation of a buy and the price goes in the toilet. We have lost .50 cents or more a bushel in the last few weeks. When the price is right China and other countries will buy the last of the old crop and the US will be dependent on a new crop that has no guarantees of making average yields. Certainly hope this country wakes up and doesn't put us in jeopardy of limited grains.
Kansas Comments
Anonymous on 4/23/2012 6:38:00 PM
|
COME DEC. 2012 CORN WILL BE TRADING ARROUND 5.00 . WITH WHEAT. AND SOYBEANS GOING 15-16. THAT IS MY OPINION BASED ON MY EXPERIENCE
Anonymous on 4/18/2012 7:24:00 PM
|
I think that we'll see additional damage show up in the soft winter wheat belt as well over the next couple of weeks. The danger when freezes happen at the stage of development seen in the Midwest is sterilization, where the heads end up empty at harvest time. Still too soon to know. Wheat is a crop that can fool you, but I think we'll see more damage than is currently evident.
Arlan on 4/18/2012 3:33:00 PM
|
About fifty percent of the winter wheat on our farm appears to have been killed by frost. We are going to give it a week to see if there is any re-growth. I live in NE South Dakota.
Anonymous on 4/17/2012 6:14:00 PM
|
hard freeze corn will be sit back take long time to get back to where it was will hurt it
Anonymous on 4/12/2012 7:29:00 AM
|
USDA's March 30 report showing tight corn stocks and its April 10 report showing larger stocks certainly create a lot more questions than answers. It's important to remember that the March 30 quarterly stocks report was produced by USDA-NASS based on survey data and statistical analysis. However, the April 10 report was produced by the USDA-WASDE division, which adds their own subjective interpretation to the data. That's what opens the door for questioning the logic of the numbers.
Arlan on 4/11/2012 7:02:00 AM
|
Looks like it will be the June report again to confirm we don't have the bushels. USDA is setting us up for more government manipulation of prices and commodities just like they do in China. I was fooled a year ago and won't be fooled again. In making lemonade out of lemons, I am creating a marketing plan which will be based on false USDA data. We will see what some of the local basis prices will be this summer. I would not want to bet the farm on whether we will run out of grain. We are almost certain to now. USDA's actions have so far failed to ration demand and we have a very questionable growing season upon us. Grain in the bin will be like money in the bank but with better interest. My two cents.
Scott County Iowa farmer
Anonymous on 4/10/2012 8:34:00 PM
|
One way yields are manipulated are by the figures to come up with yield produced. The government (USDA)
uses harvested acres when figuring acres instead of planted acres. When I figure the yields for our farms
I use planted acres and total bushel harvested. We are required to do that. If you check the figures of the
different statistical facts put out by agencies, they use harvested acres because it brings a higher yield.
Did you ever wonder why the yields seem so high when the grain just didn't seem to be out there in the
whole state? Check it out.
Anonymous on 4/10/2012 7:11:00 PM
|
I wonder if the USDA is simply trying to say "You idiots!! Plant something else or your corn will be worth nothing!!"
Anonymous on 4/10/2012 1:38:00 PM
|
I appreciate the ground-truth information from the Canadian Prairies. Many areas of the Prairies did receive temporary relief recently, but subsoil moisture is still lacking and, as you noted, some large areas totally missed out.
Arlan on 4/9/2012 9:48:00 AM
|
I don't know what part of the prairies your looking at Arlin. We are still way behind in moisture and with a humidity of 23% like we experienced yesterday the moisture that we have will be gone shortly. Spring wheat acreage will be down in Canada , Canola is king this year!!!
Anonymous on 4/5/2012 8:29:00 AM
|
A lot of hard red spring wheat's price outlook hinges on Canada. One-third of the Prairies are still far too dry. Canada's production could cover much of the shortfall if the weather turns favorable, but otherwise a short fall in Canada could combine with declining U.S. acres to keep energy under U.S. prices for some time. Some of that support should spill over into hard red winter wheat, but soft red winter wheat should continue to trade at a considerable discount.
By the way, it was a one-week vacation, but thanks all for the comments I received.
Arlan on 4/3/2012 7:03:00 PM
|
I live in NE South Dakota. In the heart of HRSW country, but you wouldn't know it if you looked around here anymore. Do you see the lack of acres of HRSW as enough of a catalyist to really get a good rally over the next several months and is it a unique enough crop with enough demand that it could stand even more on it's own, apart from huge stocks of lesser quality wheat crops?
Anonymous on 4/2/2012 6:12:00 PM
|
So very glad you are back. A 2 week vacation??? I really missed your tweets. I'm just an old farmer that would like to have some insight when the markets are making major moves. Hunted all over the internet and found no one else with your short insightful tweets for up to the moment info.
Anonymous on 4/2/2012 3:44:00 PM
|
I have a different opinion than most. I am a retired organic farmer with a scientific degree in agronomy circa 1980.
the problem with the gmo corn (plural) is the hazardous effect on the environment. for one: corn that can't be killed by round up which crowds out beans or root crops. Also, BT corn that kills worms during the entire season, every season, which results in pesticide resistance in the worm population. Then BT which is a great organic pesticide will not work on the pest for the organic farmer. Crop losses or poor yields result. The corporates don't give a damn.
The quality of the corn for consumption is probably not affected, and may be better than other corn lines, I don't know about this for certain. but the breeding problem is in pest resistance and not in the nutritional side of the equation. The Euros are trying to make a point by not buying it.
the big problems I am hearing is the corporate use of lawyers to seize crops that are grown in proximity of gmo seed crops and are confiscated as a result. Disgusting practice if I ever heard of one. William
Anonymous on 3/22/2012 12:49:00 AM
|
Commodity based currencies have been weak the last few days, so the grains maybe sometimes default to being just another store of value when there's limited news. On another topic, a friend from Vermont said these warm temperatures had the sap already running in the trees. They only got 25% production compared to previous recent years. Not sure about Canada but looks like we may be eating corn syrup on our pancakes.
Anonymous on 3/20/2012 7:42:00 PM
|
By short term, I'm talking 20 years versus a 50-year year trend yield.
Arlan on 3/16/2012 7:29:00 AM
|
My last post was on February 21, not 23. Sorry.
Scott County Iowa farmer
Anonymous on 3/15/2012 12:51:00 AM
|
Glad to see the Rabobank article on yields. Confirms my comments on Feb 23. I think our yields are reaching a plateau in which it is going to get harder to exceed, just like the beans have done. Arlan you mentioned that USDA uses short term data and hence it means a higher trend yield. How short term? It would seem that a longer term would average yields and show a higher trend. The last few years have not been record yields for corn. Just wondering how they come up with the trend yield info.
Scott County Iowa farmer.
Anonymous on 3/15/2012 12:47:00 AM
|
Your response is curious, since I didn't say what my response would be. I was asked what I thought the market's reaction would be and that's what I said. Many in the market still consider USDA THE authority and they respond accordingly. That's how I answered the question. The same is true with the market's reaction to USDA's crop report. If you read my commentary and listen to my audio posts regularly, you know I stand - that stocks are tighter than indicated by USDA.
Arlan on 3/12/2012 3:38:00 PM
|
way to go Arlan don't give the goods cover up for them like before, all the time don't go out on your own and think for your self just be their mouth peace
Anonymous on 3/9/2012 10:52:00 PM
|
A failure of USDA to support expectations could definitely dampen market enthusiasm if it occurs, but the market's reaction will also be influenced by what's happening in the outside markets as well; whether its a "risk-on" environment where money is flowing freely, or "risk-off" where investors are heading for the safety of the sidelines. Seasonally, we tend to focus more on supply and demand fundamentals this time of year, with the biggest risk factor the next few months being the Middle East.
Arlan on 3/6/2012 10:59:00 AM
|
Arlan, If the USDA does not lower South America production very much and increase US export projections will the market still listen?
Anonymous on 3/5/2012 7:04:00 PM
|
Export data I reported on Monday was for export shipments during the week ending February 23, as reported by USDA. Data released on Friday was for export sales for the week ending February 16. Other export data that comes out day to day is for sales reported to USDA over 100K metric tons.
Arlan on 2/28/2012 10:58:00 AM
|
Arlan, how do you get the export data you reported for the week ending Feb. 23rd, when on the 24th they released the Feb. 16th exports? Is there an early reporting system other than the daily sales over 100k? Thanks!
Anonymous on 2/27/2012 4:28:00 PM
|
I find it rather coincidental that our USDA overestimates what both Brazil and Argentina plan to produce this year in corn nad soybean production. The amount of reduced production estimates reported in January also just happened to be offset by an equal increase in US stocks. Fuzzy math or are the Obama quick fixers at it again?
Anonymous on 2/23/2012 5:28:00 PM
|
Perhaps there's something to learn here...rather than sell when you NEED to, sell when prices are good. (and sit on the money till the payment needs to be made). If you feel the USDA and their reports drive prices down, then sell before the report. Even if you dis-agree with the reports, use them to your advantage...it's not easy to market a crop, but always look for the up side!
Anonymous on 2/23/2012 11:14:00 AM
|
Just so you know, the canadian farmer does have the same perspective. We too are at the mercy of the USDA, WASDE, and everything else global (Greece for eg.) that affects the markets. Our prices and inputs, are based on the CME futures, as well. Seem fair that our prices are controlled by something that's not even in our own country? And also, that's the reason I use the farmfutures site, as well as Arlan and Bryce's commentary. The only difference between canadian marketing decisions and yours is our basis (also influenced mostly by YOUR dollar)is generally much lower. Not too sure how we're benefiting! We are all in this together, it's a global market, and global trade. Just thought it would be good to have some constructive comments about the USDA and their reports, not just name bashing. That's how we can all learn from each other!
Anonymous on 2/23/2012 10:53:00 AM
|
It is obvious to US farmers that USDA manipulates data in politically expedient moments. USDA forces our crop prices down when farmers have notes to pay and inputs to buy (per KANSAS COMMENT) and then lets EPA shoot down ethanol in our automobiles at 15% to complete the demand destruction and downward price spiral. I will vote for any candidate that decreases the size and intrusion of government in agriculture, healthcare, and anything else! Everyone was so anxious to stop farmer subsidies and now they have done it. So all the farm program money is once again a shell game going to fund school lunches and none to farmers. So be it. Let USDA end sooner rather than later. The only harm that will occur is to our trading partners who keep getting the USDA discount on corn and exported ethanol. The Canadian farmer doesn't have the same perspective because he benefits while we lose when USDA plays Russisn roulette with our grain markets. Let them draw pictures of vegetables on plates instead of pyramids if it gives them a sense of purpose but USDA is a disaster in market manipulation.
Anonymous on 2/23/2012 9:44:00 AM
|
To the Canadian farmer, you are right the USDA is powerful and influential, which is the reason they need to be more efficient. When it is time for US farmers to pay operating notes and other financial obligations and we need to sell crops to meet those needs, the last thing we need is an agency putting out incorrect reports that knock the prices down, only to come back a few weeks or months later to make corrections. Whether anyone believes it or not, there is manipulation of the markets in this country and in the end producers usually are the ones that take the hit. And yes the prices today are good prices, however the overhead is higher than it has ever been, so the profit margin is just as narrow as it has been in the past. Farmers are a unique group of individuals and the backbone of the world, good luck to all of us......KANSAS COMMENT
Anonymous on 2/23/2012 7:44:00 AM
|
I do not work for the USDA, I am actually a canadian farmer...just want to throw out my 2 cents! There seems to be a lot of critisism towards the USDA and their reports. I have noticed several comments from people over the past few months, wishing/wanting the USDA dis-banded. How do you think that would effect the markets?? It would be disasterous. As Arlan and Bryce both say, fear trumps fundemantals. The unknown of "what would happen next", should the largest, gloabally known, agricultural reporting system dis-appear, or just be "re-named", or "change reporting methods", would result in prices being driven down so far through the floor you'd have to dig for them. Weather you agree or dis-agree with the USDA, they are powerful, influential, and must be respected, just like everything else in your country. And at the close today...$6.38 corn, $12.72 beans, $6.44 wheat. Wow. If you can't make money at that, quit farming. Best of luck to farmers all across the continent for a good successful growing season in 2012!
Anonymous on 2/22/2012 5:22:00 PM
|
Ditto to another report. Assuming acres is one thing, but yields? Putting out yield projections this early is like blowing in the wind. Way too many things can impact yields, most of all weather. Just as well be wagering in Vegas against house odds. If corn acres in fact increase (figuring more marginal acres), would not the odds of trendline yields go down? Reminds me of probabilities in statistics class. I think we have to eventually see a lowering of trend yields due mainly to weather volatility, insects, and diseases, just to name a few. Has anyone looked at this lately? I also believe a big reason the markets are so volatile is because there are way too many assumptions. USDA lets deal with more facts and less predictions and have a more stable price in return. That means reports that deal with acres from FSA in August and yields from insurance reports in December. Let the analysts do the assuming. Scott County Iowa farmer
Anonymous on 2/21/2012 10:41:00 PM
|
Right on to the farmer from Kansas
Anonymous on 2/21/2012 9:10:00 PM
|
Arlen, notice how everyone is complaining about gas prices? As soon as the blenders credit expired, up goes the price. What a coincedient. Now everybody wants to use more domestict oil. Good thing we got rid of the blenders credit, it's really saving the taxpayers a lot of money that they can now spend on high gas prices. Why are'nt we using more ethanol? It's more than .80 cents a gallon cheaper than unleaded and we have a lot of it. Glad my pickup is flex fuel.
Anonymous on 2/21/2012 8:58:00 PM
|
ATTENTION USDA-Mart shoppers....prices were rolled back again today so stock up your bins foreign countries at American farmers expense....if prices aren't cheap enough today, wait until USDA's Outlook Forum later this week.
KANSAS COMMENT
Anonymous on 2/21/2012 8:32:00 PM
|
Arlen, I can hardly wait for the USDA to come out with their outlook this week. Their gonna tell us how many acres will be planted & the yield were gonna get. How many times have these buffones ben right in the last 10 years on yield? ZERO. And we should believe them now? They just throw out numbers to manipulate the market.
Anonymous on 2/21/2012 7:20:00 PM
|
Rumor that China bought nearly 130 million bushels of soft red and hard red winter wheat evaporated like many of them do. That doesn't mean that it won't/didn't happen, but for now little hard evidence exists that it did. There was plenty of activity in the option pits Friday that mirrored what you might see if the commercials were covering a major deal, but the activity just as easily could have been speculative in nature related to the rumor. One thing was for sure. They were not buying today.
Arlan on 2/21/2012 3:40:00 PM
|
So, I'm dying to know what happened to the Chinese rumor from Friday.
Anonymous on 2/21/2012 2:55:00 PM
|
Who the hell is Kevin Van Trump....a USDA employee? If all producers would get together and hold tight to their grain, maybe we could turn this downward drift around......
Anonymous on 2/15/2012 7:47:00 PM
|
Arlin I thought you would like to know that Kevin van Trump in his report doesn't think your friend in Brazil is credable. I happen to believe your source. I thought you would like to know Ernie
Anonymous on 2/15/2012 2:44:00 PM
|
Somebody must have put the word out that there was another country needing to purchase some grain. Down a few cents again today when everything points to an up market. kansascommenter...no longer anoymous...!
Anonymous on 2/14/2012 6:41:00 PM
|
Never mind.
Anonymous on 2/13/2012 2:37:00 PM
|
How many posters on this site are Anonymous? Is Anonymous praising his own posts. Arlen, you shouldn't let anonymous posters hijack your site.
Anonymous on 2/13/2012 2:36:00 PM
|
amen to the last post. spot on!
Anonymous on 2/10/2012 9:01:00 AM
|
Lets see....Algeria closed a "huge tender" for wheat, South Korea booked 8.1 million bushels.....what is the USDA looking out for them now and making sure the price goes down when they are ready to purchase. Seems to be the trend the whole year on all the grains. The sooner we get rid of this administration and his cabinet the better off this country will be.
Anonymous on 2/9/2012 9:08:00 PM
|
Sack Vilsack. The USDA has deteriorated under his "leadership." The buck stops at his desk. The Comedy of Errors.
Anonymous on 2/8/2012 10:03:00 PM
|
Most of my neighbors and I fortunatly, (or unfortunatly) ended up having most of our corn sold well before last fall's harvest. The bushels just weren't there. When a local elevator called me 2 weeks ago wondering if i had any corn in the bin to move( someone needing some i guess? )I told him nope, the bins are swept. When i told him he should call USDA, apparently they know where its all at, he chuckeled and said, "yeah that's going to be a problem" . Just a thought?
Anonymous on 2/7/2012 9:53:00 PM
|
Arlan, you are on the right path in your thinking. The USDA, is of course wrong. Where we usually have grain piles after harvest we have none and I'm in one of those production areas where USDA said we raised bushels close to last year. Simple fact is, if we raised near production (which we didn't) it already got gobbled up by ethonal plants or railed out for use. Our basis has of course nearly tripled in the last few weeks as the end users are realizing the fact "uh... where is it at?" Farmers do finally have more working capital and can do business like the rest of the free market has for years but it is still not out there. I'm sure by this time next year USDA will finally tell the moronic traders "gee, I guess we miscalculated". Of course by that time even the strong fisted farmer had enough and sold it for 6.50 cash. After all if we don't some outside influence will hand us our head. Arlan this is your chance to stay the path and say it like it is. We farmers know what we have to do until the truth finally comes out. Play the game and watch our hindside.
Anonymous on 1/31/2012 9:12:00 PM
|
Arlan, good call on your recent projections of Argentina lowering their production. Now how can we get the Argentina guys to project and calculate the US production instead of USDA.
Anonymous on 1/23/2012 6:51:00 PM
|
After seeing the Argentina satellite images I correct myself from previous post. The crop tour guy better walk in more than a few rows to get rid of his morning coffee or he will still be seen.
Anonymous on 1/20/2012 1:53:00 PM
|
There's a great deal of truth to what you say.
Arlan on 1/20/2012 1:27:00 PM
|
I know a commodity trader that has said for years we should be looking at satellite images. We have the technology why wouldn't we use it as a guide. It is alot more accurate than a drive by or a John Deere crop tour guy walking in a few rows to relieve himself of his morning coffee.
Anonymous on 1/19/2012 1:45:00 PM
|
Be sure to follow the link I will use in this afternoon's commentary to satellite images of Argentina's grain belt compared to the same period in the devastating drought in the 2008-09 growing season. Those images suggest that this year's drought is worse, which a local from Argentina has told me as well. Argentina lost 30% of its soybeans and 43% of its corn that year. Those getting Farm Futures Daily, our e-newsletter, will also see a graphic of the region's vegetative health versus the previous year.
Arlan on 1/19/2012 11:55:00 AM
|
I came across some interesting data released by FSA. According to them there were only 87.25 million acres of corn planted in 2011 with 3.01 million acres in prevent plant. soybean acres came in at 73.65 acres with 1.45 million in prevent plant. With wheat there was approx 4.5 million in prevent plant. How come these acres are so different from USDA. Please don't tell me they are both right. How can you trust one source and chose to ignore the other. These figures were released just the other day. That's a huge difference.
Anonymous on 1/18/2012 5:43:00 PM
|
I often hear analyst saying the crop has time to recover. They just repeat what USDA always says because it must be bible. Analyst also continually readjust their numbers after another bogus USDA report. This is the point, analyst need to quite listening to USDA. They need to stay with their own numbers and listen to producers about the crop. Then when it finally comes out maybe the uninformed traders will stop listening to USDA also and pay more attention to analyst that stayed the path and were ultimately right. I don't know how bad parts of South America really are because I have not taken a tour. Nor do I even know what a bumper crop in South America would look like. I do know what one looks like here though and often when the analyst are telling me there is time for our crop to recover I have already personally made Anheuser Busch stock go up. Not just because I'm a lush but with 25 years hands on experience I know what the crop can and cannot come out of.
Anonymous on 1/18/2012 2:29:00 PM
|
yes soybean losses can recover to a point once stress has occured, but they will never recover to its original potential. The best analogy I can give you is this. We had a hail insurance claim and the adjuster claimed that they would recover after the leaves had been stripped off. I agreed to a point but said that if I was to take his hand and cut of a finger he could probably function without one finger but he would never function as before. The same occures with plants. Once stress has occured your yield potential declines even with normal weather. It only works if your the USDA or a analyst or an expert. You know what an expert is. 1 an X is a has been, and 2 a spert is a drip under pressure. Needless to say we came to an agreement
Anonymous on 1/17/2012 9:49:00 PM
|
I think the last comment hits the nail square on the head. We listen to trade analyst daily to help guide our marketing decisions and farming business in general. It gets to the point that we are not able to believe either the USDA or the analyst (this puts you in that category). I have always liked and enjoyed listening to you and reading your commentaries, however now it appears neither you or the USDA can be trusted. I say this only to encourage you and other analyst to challenge these completely manipulative USDA reports. I have no doubt there is some insider trading occurring which is the reason for the bear reports when prices start to climb. My advice....man up and challenge this agency.
Anonymous on 1/17/2012 9:46:00 PM
|
Arlan, I think the point most producers are trying to make here is the fact that USDA numbers are always contradictory to whatever analyst we prefer. We prefer certain analyst because their logic and rationale seem well thought out and alot of times has history to back it up. USDA has no rationale, logic or history. Any farmer that has farmed several years has been used to making lemonade out of lemons numerous times. Likely several times a year. It is in our nature. It is also in our nature to call bu!!shi! when we see it. Must be that thing of not having a boss or company telling us to knock it off or else. That's our trade off for not having benefits or security.
We need those same logical, well thought out, rational people that we listen to about markets to challange USDA numbers. If not this crap will never end.
Anonymous on 1/17/2012 8:14:00 PM
|
Really wondering why everyone(including Arlan)is so affraid of calling the usda out on thier lies not errors? For the last 3 quarters all the livestock in this country must be ording thier meals from weight watchers, because we have vitually feed no corn or wheat, yet cattle numbers are up? Go to cnbc.com and search video on corn,usda report. A couple of days before the report Rick santelli interviewed John Mcintosh from Rand Finacial Services. He explains in detail how wrong the USDA reports have been for quite some time. The usda is wrong and one day it will all come to light, who will be blamed? The obama administaion is directly behind these BS numbers( ie Still havent accounted for the 6.2 million acres of prevent plant in ND alone)? why any producer would ever vote for that fool again is beyond me???
Anonymous on 1/16/2012 2:00:00 PM
|
It's true that our data indicated that corn stocks are much tighter than what USDA reported on January 12, due to a smaller crop and stronger demand. USDA's math produced a different result. The same was true for wheat feeding data as well. Our methodology has proven effective over the long haul. However, many of our other estimates were actually pretty close to USDA's numbers, especially for soybeans. When it comes to South American weather there is a difference between rainfall over the past month as a percent of normal and the percent of a crop currently under stress after a rain system has passed through. That doesn't mean that damage is reversed, but a rain does temporarily relieve stress. I get information from Argentina and Brazil on nearly a daily basis, from both producers and grain brokers. But I also have to filter through that information. All of us have a tendency to see the rest of the world just as it is in our own back yard. Corn losses are likely substantial, but late and second crop corn can partially offset the losses if the weather pattern improves in time, especially in Brazil. Soybean losses have occurred as well, but soybeans are the most responsive to late season rains if they occur. That's why weather over the next few weeks is most critical. I've been much more aggressive with my comments about South America's production in my Twitter comments at https://twitter.com/#!/ArlanFF101.
Arlan on 1/16/2012 10:36:00 AM
|
I greatly appreciate the dialogue. We also appreciate the loyalty of our readers who filled out producer surveys, indicating that the 2011 corn yields were lower, confirming past historical tendencies as well. Yes, our data, as well as the data of many others, suggests that corn usage is higher and stocks are lower than what is currently reported by USDA. However, this is not a closed system where one can easily prove the case, until stocks either run up and prices explode higher, or we suddenly find where all the bushels are at and the market collapses. As such, we must respect the chance that USDA is right. Unfortunately, the typical farmer can only hold his grain for so long before he must sell, either for cash flow reasons or to make room for the next crop. Meanwhile, many young money managers take USDA's word as gospel. With all of this in mind, we must take the information handed to us and create a marketing plan that makes the best of what we have. We must channel the emotions created by USDA's reports in a way that allows us to make lemonade out of lemons rather than causing us to make emotional decisions that end up hurting us even more.
Arlan on 1/16/2012 10:19:00 AM
|
Good previous post. Why are acres still being adjusted when we are forced to certify in June exactly what we planted. I can understand weather distroying some of those acres afterwards but usually the acres somehow get increased in later reports. We have another year of high temp nights but somehow the yield increases from the previous report. Many of us report yields to government subsidied crop insurance. Wouldn't that be more accurate than what they are doing. I refuse to fill out the USDA surveys because they simply cannot be trusted to compile the info correctly and as I said they already have the information in a better format anyway. This crap has to change and all our farm groups and associations need to put this priority one.
Anonymous on 1/14/2012 5:08:00 PM
|
It just bothers me that everyone, even the traders, have access to some of the same information that USDA has (even more up to date) and USDA is continually surprising everyone? Something doesn't smell right here. Everyone but apparently the USDA knew we had low test weight corn a couple years ago and USDA did not confirm it until June report, right? Go figure. By then most farmers had sold most of their grain for cash flow or listened to too many negative reports to be sold on the market going the wrong way. I know, that is why there are options and futures that cost us more money to protect us from government reports. If they can not provide more accurate information, then of what value is it? I know adjustments have to be made, but lets start getting it right more often. Can everyone be wrong here but the USDA? Talk to crop adjusters, they have boots on the ground.
If we can assume that there is some underlying reason for what they do, then what about a theory that they are trying to keep prices low through February for the crop insurance subsidies?
Scott County Iowa
Anonymous on 1/13/2012 7:56:00 PM
|
I know I'm ready for November. I realize USDA is lousy no matter who resides at the White House but with all the other rank doings they seem even more suspect right now. Hopefully the President's supporters are busy election day doing other things and forget to get on the Accorn bus to vote. Like occupying somewhere defecating in zip-lock bags. Or marching for gay marriage dressed like the opposite sex. Or at a ribbon cutting ceremony for a new facility displaying the latest interpretive arts. Or,, well you get my point. See Arlan, thats how you say what is on your mind. You know you want to.
Anonymous on 1/13/2012 4:42:00 PM
|
Perhaps the USDA is showing us the correct numbers now, and they were wrong last year. Maybe ending stocks and carry-over were never as tight as they said, and they've slowly been correcting that over these last several reports. If that is the case, at least it's been done in small incriments, and not one large increase shown in one report. Lets also not forget the stocks-to-use ratio is still the tightest it's been in years as Arlan has stated in his report yesterday. Fundementally, and long term it's still a bull market. There just might be some hiccups along the way. Thanks to everyone at farmfutures for their hard work, and excellent reports for everything ag-related. Cheers!
Anonymous on 1/13/2012 3:25:00 PM
|
Really wondering why everyone(including Arlan)is so affraid of calling the usda out on thier lies not errors? For the last 3 quarters all the livestock in this country must be ording thier meals from weight watchers, because we have vitually feed no corn or wheat, yet cattle numbers are up? Go to cnbc.com and search video on corn,usda report. A couple of days before the report Rick santelli interviewed John Mcintosh from Rand Finacial Services. He explains in detail how wrong the USDA reports have been for quite some time. The usda is wrong and one day it will all come to light, who will be blamed? The obama administaion is directly behind these BS numbers( ie Still havent accounted for the 6.2 million acres of prevent plant in ND alone)? why any producer would ever vote for that fool again is beyond me???
Anonymous on 1/13/2012 3:11:00 PM
|
Arlin I have a question. You are saying that in Argentina you are concerned about stress in 25% of the corn and soybean belt in Argentina. The national weather service says that Argentina has recieved from 33% - 50% of normal rainfall with above normal temps. Who is right and why the difference? Ernie
Anonymous on 1/13/2012 8:36:00 AM
|
The USDA report badly damaged the market's emotions. The report only accounted for half the Argentine corn damage and none of the Brazil damage - USDA will mea culpa their "error" in future reports. Thanks alot, USDA. Once again, handing a big present to China and a big lump of coal to the tax-paying farmers of America. How much money did producers lose on this report? Where is the oversight for accuracy? Is it November yet? Remind me once again WHY we need the USDA Reports manipulating of our ag markets??? Oh, and let's not forget CME who can hardly wait to expand trading limits increasing risk for all, and yet cannot stand behind MF Global even after CME's own shoddy job of regulating segregated client accounts. Let's hear it for MF USDA and the CME.
Anonymous on 1/13/2012 5:18:00 AM
|
come on Arlin your comments about Argentinas lack of moisture are misleading. If you do research most of Argentina has recieved 33% of normal rainfall in the past 30 days combine that with above normal temps and you have a disaster. Argentine newspapers are reporting this drought as bad as 2008. That's the year they cut of exports
Anonymous on 1/12/2012 2:54:00 PM
|
write what you think, not what you are told to write, think you really would do a lot better job.
Anonymous on 1/5/2012 4:57:00 PM
|
Apologize for the error. I was referring to the gains from late last year. Good catch.
Arlan on 1/5/2012 2:54:00 PM
|
You wrote:
"March corn gained 27-cents this week and is 30 ½-cents higher than a year ago. "
12/31/10 H was $6.29
12/31/2011 H was $6.46 1/2.
Where is the 30 1/2 cents higher at?
Roger Wright
rwrighT@main-net.com
937 605 1061 cell
Anonymous on 1/3/2012 4:06:00 AM
|