March 10, 2014
Upcoming agricultural reports to watch for: Wednesday, March 12 at 10 a.m. central is the weekly EIA ethanol report. Thursday, March 13 at 7:30 a.m. is the weekly export sales. Friday, March 14 is the expiration of the March futures for the grains and soybean complex. Saturday, March 15 is a full moon. Thursday, March 20 is the first day of spring. Monday, March 31 is the Prospective Plantings and the Quarterly Grain Stocks reports.
Today's WASDE report did not show any ending stock numbers that were drastically higher or lower than the trade's estimated number. The biggest stumbling block was the lack of overly price friendly numbers from the report to extend the prices higher.
With the lack of extremely friendly numbers, profit taking and outright selling pulled prices lower from highs that have not been seen in 4 to 6 months and in some cases those highs were contract highs. In a nutshell, the bull market was not fed today and reacted angrily to the downside. Now the next report to prepare for is the important March 31 prospective plantings and quarterly stocks report. We will talk more about that later.
Corn futures today traded mostly negative and closed negative after scoring new highs for the current move to the upside in last Friday's trading session. Most of the contracts had very little positive trade today and plunged to new session lows today following this morning's WASDE report from the USDA.
This morning's weekly corn export inspection for the week ending March 6 were at 933,974 metric tons (36.77 million bushels) the pre-report estimated range was 408,000-725,000 metric tons (16.06-28.54 million bushels).
Today's WASDE report had the 2013-14 U.S. corn ending stocks at 1.456 billion bushels; this less than the trade's average estimate and 25 million lower than the February report. The only change in the corn's balance sheet was an increase of 25 million bushels for exports. That puts exports at a total of 1.625 billion bushels.
World corn production had Brazil at 70 million metric tons and Argentina at 24 million metric tons, both unchanged from the February report
The world 2013-14 corn ending stocks were 158.5 million metric tons (6.24 billion bushels). This is an increase from the February estimate of 157.3 million metric tons.
May Corn futures on Friday experienced its highest trade since September 3. Today the contract traded and closed negative with its lowest close of the past five sessions. Resistance is at $4.79 the 200-day moving average, $5.02 the 50% retracement of the January Low to the June High, $5.02 ½ the March high, then $5.22 ½ the 61.8% retracement. Support is at $4.64 the March Low, then $4.47 the 50-day moving average, then $4.38 ¾ the February low, then $4.14 ½ the contract and January Low.
December Corn traded and closed negative today with its lowest close of the past five sessions. Friday the contract had its highest since September 30. The contract from the contract low to the March high has now rallied 58 ¾ cents, with most of that upside coming on the January 10 report day, 23 ¾ cents. The $5.07 mark is a 50% retracement of the January low back to the June high.
Trading today was mostly lower as was today's close for the entire soybean complex. New session lows were made in mostly contracts after the release of today's WASDE report. Profit taking and outright selling took the soybean complex to its negative closes.
This morning's weekly soybean export inspection for the week ending March 6 were at 1.505 million metric tons (55.31 million bushels) the pre-report estimated range was 680,000-940,000 metric tons (24.99-34.54 million bushels).
Today's WASDE report had the 2013-14 U.S. soybean ending stocks at 145 million bushels; this is more than the trade's average estimate and 5 million lower than the February report. Changes in the soybean balance sheet had an increase of 5 million bushels in imports, an increase in exports of 20 million bushels and a decrease of 10 million in the crush. The soybean exports are projected now at 1.530 billion bushels.
Argentina's soybean production was left unchanged at 54 million metric tons (1.98 billion bushels) and Brazil was lowered by 1.5 million metric tons to 88.5 million metric tons (3.25 billion bushels).
The world 2013-14 soybean ending stocks are at 70.6 million metric tons (2.59 billion bushels) down from February's estimate of 73.01 million metric tons.
May Soybeans today had its lowest trade of the past three sessions as it traded and closed negative and had its lowest close of the past five sessions. Resistance is at $14.50 area, then $14.60 the March & Contract high, then $14.75 area. Support starts at $14.02 the March Low, then $13.75 area, then $13.50 area, then $13.25 area, then $13.17 the 50-day moving average, $12.95 the 100-day moving average, then $12.83 the 200-day moving average.
November Soybeans today traded mixed, made a new high, the highest since September 13 and closed positive on a large outside trading session. The contract closed above the 100-day moving average for the eleventh straight session today. The contract from the contract low to the March high has rallied $1.09. The $11.94 mark is a 50% retracement of the January low back to the June high and was breached today.
Wheat futures traded mixed early in the session, but were mostly lower after the WASDE report. Most wheat contracts in Chicago, Kansas City and Minneapolis made new lows for the session in the final minutes of trading today. The wheat actually tried to hold closer to the unchanged area following today's report.
This morning's weekly wheat export inspection for the week ending March 6 were at 429,081 metric tons (15.77 million bushels); the pre-report estimated range was 408,000-725,000 metric tons (14.99-26.64 million bushels).
Today's WASDE report had the 2013-14 U.S. wheat ending stocks at 558 million bushels; this is less than the trade's average estimate and unchanged from the February report. There were no changes to the wheat balance table.
The world 2013-14 wheat ending stocks are pegged at 183.8 million metrics (6.75 billion bushels); this is very near the February estimate of 183.73 million metric tons.
Kansas City May Wheat futures traded mostly lower today and closed with its lowest close of the past three sessions. Resistance is at $7.25 ½ the March high, then $7.40 ½ the November high. Support is at $7.09 the 200-day moving average, then $6.80 the 100-day moving average, then $6.80 ½ to $6.79 ¼ Open Gap, then $6.51 the 50-day moving average; $6.25 area, then $6.05 the contract and January Low.
Chicago May Wheat futures today had mostly lower trade and closed negative having its lowest close of the past four sessions. Resistance starts at $6.63 the March high, then $6.64 the 200-day moving average. Support is at $6.32 the 100-day moving average, then $6.20 area, then $6.11 ¼ to $6.05 Open Gap, then $5.96 the 50-day moving average, then $5.75 area, then $5.53 ½ the contract and January low.
The Minneapolis May Wheat today traded and closed negative. Resistance is at $7.06 ½ the March high, then $7.26 the 200-day moving average. Support begins at $6.77 the 100-day moving average, then $6.50 area, then $6.38 the 50-day moving average, then $6.15 area, then $5.94 ½ the contract and January low.
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