December 7, 1941, is a day that lives in infamy for our country. December 29, 2010, may have the same consequences for agriculture.
This past week EPA issued its final Total Maximum Daily Load (TMDL) requirements for dischargers, including farmers, of nitrogen, phosphorus and sediment into the Chesapeake Bay. Farm stormwater runoff is now an EPA target!
The TMDL promulgated on December 29, 2010, by EPA will result in "…mandated requirements on cities, businesses, industries, and private citizens to install and operate new technologies, without regard to economic feasibility of implementation." So says environmental consulting firm LimnoTech in its report, "Comparison of Draft Load Estimates for Cultivated Cropland in the Chesapeake Bay Watershed", December 8, 2010.
This firm was retained by the Agricultural Nutrient Policy Council to examine EPA's Watershed Model to determine its accuracy as it relates to farm runoff. According to LimnoTech, it and USDA have "substantial differences" between USDA and EPA pollutant load estimates from agriculture.
Run out of business
EPA is assuming that many of you in crop production in the six states in the Bay region will go out of business or return your crop production land to pasture or forest. In the Chesapeake Bay region, EPA is assuming 630,000 acres of land will be removed from crop production as a result of its TMDL.
This 20% reduction is on top of another 28% decrease according to LimnoTech. "Thus, EPA's TMDL assumes a 48% reduction in cropland production when compared to USDA's assumptions."
Agriculture is a major polluter and is harming the environment, according to EPA. The agency is jiggering the numbers to prove this assertion, according to LimnoTech.
EPA does not seem to care because it "…was aware that its pollutant load estimates may not be representative of actual conditions in the Chesapeake Bay watershed." Not only is EPA not listening to experts hired by industry, it is ignoring USDA's actual data regarding agricultural runoff into the Bay.
Incorrect data
EPA claims it will, through the TMDL, reduce 60% of the nitrogen, phosphorus and sediment running in to the Bay by 2017. A large portion of this reduction will come from agriculture based on incorrect data, according to LimnoTech.
It appears that EPA's entire regulatory framework may be wrong as well as misallocating resources and even EPA's own modelers question the validity of their model during a December 1, 2010, workshop. This allegation is dangerous for crop production if proven true!
Some Examples of Errors: EPA's Watershed Model claims there are 41.1 million acres of surface area in the Bay area, but USDA estimates there are 42.49 million acres of surface area in the Bay. On actual cropland, EPA estimates 3.33 million acres and USDA estimates that 4.38 million acres are used for cropland. This is a 32% difference.
On total agricultural land used for pasture, cropland, and conservation tillage, EPA estimates there are 9 million acres of agricultural land, and USDA estimates there are 12.12 million acres of agricultural land.
Even more disturbing, EPA estimates through its model that that 50% of cropped acres are farmed using conservation tillage (no-till) and 50% are farms using conventional tillage.
USDA has a huge disagreement with these numbers. It "…estimates that 88% of cropland (Chesapeake Bay region) is farmed using conservation tillage (no-till or mulch till); five percent is between conservation tillage and conventional tillage; and seven percent is in conventional tillage."
EPA, to justify huge cutbacks on farmers' use of nitrogen and phosphorus, would appear to be ignoring USDA in an effort to control tillage practices in the Chesapeake Bay region.
You have to ask yourself a question – why would EPA not use USDA data?
EPA assumes 50% of the row crop land in the Chesapeake Bay region is still being subjected to moldboard plowing and that 50% of the land is under some type of conservation practice. According to USDA, "most of the cropped acres (96 percent) in the Chesapeake Bay region have some kind of water erosion control practice – either reduced tillage or structural practices or both."
Someone is not being truthful with the American farmer, and I don't think it is USDA.
USDA uses a model that is a representation of "actual" agricultural practices and conservation practices for determining cultivated cropland. EPA, on the other hand, uses something called a "Scenario Builder" and a Watershed Model to reach its conclusions. Scenario Builder does not appear to be a complete agricultural model and, according to LimnoTech, has significant limitations.
There is no question that USDA is using more detailed data than is EPA, and yet EPA is going to be regulating agricultural tillage practices in six states through its new TMDL.
When a crop producer in the Chesapeake Bay looks at what EPA will be requiring of him, based on inaccurate data, he may simply go out of business. EPA will then have achieved its goal of reducing cropland usage in the Chesapeake Bay region by 48% by relying on assumptions and modeling efforts, rather than USDA's field- scale model which represents "… actual agricultural practices."
A day of infamy for American agriculture!